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College Hockey:
Bracketology: D-III Women

It’s all said and done in Women’s Division III action. All that’s left is the NCAA Touranament. It’s time to take a look at who I believe will be in the NCAA Tournament.

Let’s remind everyone that there are seven teams in the Division III Women’s Tournament.

There are four automatic bids — the winners of the conference tournaments for the ECAC East, ECAC West, MIAC and NESCAC. This is Pool A.

Then there is one bid for Pool B teams, those teams that are in conferences which do not get an automatic bid. In this case, it’s just the teams in the NCHA.

And then there are two bids for Pool C teams. These are teams in the conferences which have automatic bids, but did not get the automatic bid.

With seven bids, we know that there are four teams already in the tournament. Those four teams are the Pool A teams. These four teams are:

MIAC Champion — Gustavus Adolphus
ECAC East Champion — Manhattanville
ECAC West Champion — Elmira
NESCAC Champion — Bowdoin

The next step is to award the Pool B bid to the tournament.

For this we take a look at the eligible teams. That is all the NCHA teams. Wisconsin-Stevens Point won the NCHA Championship, so that would lead us to believe that the Pointers should be awarded the Pool B bid. But that is not based on the criteria, so we have to look at the criteria.

Per the NCAA, the criteria for selection are:

Win Percentage

Strength of Schedule per the NCAA’s table

Head-to-Head Results

Record Against Common Opponents Within Region

Record Against Ranked Teams Within Region

You can take those five criteria and create a PairWise Comparison table with them.

Ties are not broken by RPI as in the Division I PairWise, but rather by looking at all the criteria and then deciding — it’s subjective here.

Let’s take a look at the PairWise Rankings for the West Region, since that is where the NCHA is. Most notably. Let’s look at the NCHA teams which are tournament eligible.

Those three teams are the Pointers, Wisconsin-Superior and Wisconsin-River Falls. Per the rankings they are:

2 Wisconsin-Stevens Point
4 Wisconsin-Superior
5 Wisconsin-River Falls

Looking at the comparisons head-to-head between the three teams we see:

Wis.-River FallsWis.-Stevens Point

WIN0.6481 00.7391 1

SOS9.4074 09.9565 1

H2H0- 4- 1 04- 0- 1 1

COP15- 5- 0 112- 5-1 0

RNK4- 8- 1 07- 4- 2 1

PTS14
Wis.-River FallsWis.-Superior

WIN0.6481 00.7222 1

SOS9.4074 09.4074 0

H2H3- 1- 0 11- 3- 0 0

COP13- 6- 1 018- 3-1 1

RNK4- 8- 1 06- 5- 0 1

PTS13
Wis.-Stevens PointWis.-Superior

WIN0.7391 10.7222 0

SOS9.9565 19.4074 0

H2H2- 3- 0 03- 2- 0 1

COP13- 1- 2 115- 4-0 0

RNK7- 4- 2 16- 5- 0 0

PTS41

From these three comparisons it is easy to see that Stevens Point wins two comparisons, Superior wins one and River Falls wins none.

Therefore we award the Pool B bid to Wisconsin-Stevens Point.

We now have five of our seven teams in the tournament.

It’s time to award the remaining two bids — the Pool C bids.

Let’s now take a look at the current PairWise Rankings for Division III Women on a national scale. Let’s look at the Top 10 of the Rankings on a national scale.

In rank order they are:

1 Manhattanville
1 Middlebury
3 Plattsburgh
4 Bowdoin
5 Elmira
6 Rensselaer
7 Gustavus Adolphus
7 Wisconsin-Stevens Point
9 St. Thomas
10 Wisconsin-Superior

Let’s take out the teams that already have Pool A bids to the Tournament (Manhattanville, Bowdoin and Elmira), plus our choice for Pool B, Wisconsin-Stevens Point.

1 Middlebury
3 Plattsburgh
6 Rensselaer
9 St. Thomas
10 Wisconsin-Superior

We have to eliminate Wisconsin-Superior because they are not eligible for a Pool C bid because they are a Pool B team. That leaves four teams for two spots.

Looking at the pure rankings themselves, Middlebury and Plattsburgh look like they will be the two teams, but let’s just confirm that with the comparisons.

Let’s take all four teams and do the head-to-head.

MiddleburyPlattsburgh

WIN0.8750 10.8400 0

SOS10.2500 010.4400 1

H2H2- 0- 0 10- 2- 0 0

COP10- 3- 0 07- 1- 1 1

RNK7- 3- 0 16- 3- 2 0

PTS32
MiddleburyRensselaer

WIN0.8750 10.7500 0

SOS10.2500 19.6111 0

H2H0- 0- 0 00- 0- 0 0

COP5- 0- 0 02- 0- 0 0

RNK7- 3- 0 15- 3- 1 0

PTS30
MiddleburySt. Thomas

WIN0.8750 10.7407 0

SOS10.2500 19.4815 0

H2H0- 0- 0 00- 0- 0 0

COP1- 0- 0 10- 0- 1 0

RNK7- 3- 0 13- 4- 1 0

PTS40
PlattsburghRensselaer

WIN0.8400 10.7500 0

SOS10.4400 19.6111 0

H2H0- 0- 0 00- 0- 0 0

COP5- 0- 1 14- 2- 1 0

RNK6- 3- 2 15- 3- 1 0

PTS40
PlattsburghSt. Thomas

WIN0.8400 10.7407 0

SOS10.4400 19.4815 0

H2H0- 0- 0 00- 0- 0 0

COP0- 0- 1 00- 0- 1 0

RNK6- 3- 2 13- 4- 1 0

PTS30
RensselaerSt. Thomas

WIN0.7500 10.7407 0

SOS9.6111 19.4815 0

H2H0- 0- 0 00- 0- 0 0

COP0- 0- 0 00- 0- 0 0

RNK5- 3- 1 13- 4- 1 0

PTS30

Looking at the comparisons, Middlebury wins three of the six, Plattsburgh two of the six and Rensselear the last one.

So, that confirms our selections of Middlebury and Plattsburgh.

Therefore our seven teams in the tournament are:

1 Manhattanville
1 Middlebury
3 Plattsburgh
4 Bowdoin
5 Elmira
7 Gustavus Adolphus
7 Wisconsin-Stevens Point

Now we need to break ties to determine the seedings.

We have two ties here, one in the east and one in the west. Therefore we break the ties using the regional PairWise Rankings.

Let’s break the Western tie with Gustavus Adolphus and Wisconsin-Stevens Point. Looking at the overall ranking, they each have six comparison wins. So let’s look at the individual comparison.

Gustavus AdolphusWis.-Stevens Point

WIN0.8750 10.7391 0

SOS10.5833 19.9565 0

H2H1- 1- 0 01- 1- 0 0

COP7- 2- 0 06- 0- 2 1

RNK4- 3- 0 07- 4- 2 1

PTS22

We have ourselves a tie. So we have to figure out who is the higher seed here.

Remember that this is subjective. There is no weight to either of the five factors, so the tie could be broken by any of the five criteria. We head to out-of-region competition to take a look.

The Gusties pick up a win over Colby and two losses to Bowdoin and Williams. The Pointers picked up a win over Williams, ties against Plattsburgh and Elmira and a loss to Middlebury. Breaking it down a little more, let’s take a look at out-of-region competition against teams already in the tournament.

It becomes clear that the Pointers are 1-1-2 against those teams while Gustavus Adolphus is 0-2.

I give Wisconsin-Stevens Point the sixth seed and Gustavus the seventh seed.

Now let’s b


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