Yeah, I know, I’m a bit late to the party this year, but better late than never.

Welcome back to the Hobey Watch blog, where I, your humble correspondent, analyze the race for the Hobey Baker Memorial Award, and attempt to predict the finalists and winner for college’s top individual honor.

Now, I’m pleased to report that due to a couple of developments since I came back to USCHO last year, I’ll be able to see more college hockey this season, both on TV and in person, which should give me additional perspective for my projections and analysis this season. However, as is my custom, I’ll start with the Casting Call, wherein I look at last year’s group of Hobey finalists, and look to fill those players’ roles for this season.

This part of my job is about as easy as it’s been, as four of last year’s Hobey finalists have returned: Air Force forward Jacques Lamoureux, Colgate forward David McIntyre, Princeton goaltender Zane Kalemba, and Michigan forward Louie Caporusso.
  
Now, never mind that we haven’t had a repeat Hobey finalist since I’ve been doing these “Casting Calls.” Big things are expected from all of those players, and I’ll join in those expectations. I’m not re-casting their roles just yet.

Jamie McBain is one of the three Hobey finalists I didn’t pick last season, mostly because of the issue with his plus/minus rating, but the fact remains that he was one of the nation’s most potent offensive defensemen last season, albeit for a team that missed the NCAA tournament.

I wouldn’t expect Denver to be sitting home in March – although it has happened to a team with high preseason expectations before (2004-05 Minnesota Duluth, anyone?) – but that’s really not the concern here. What I’m looking at is the fact that Patrick Wiercioch stepped in at Denver and became one of the nation’s top offensive defensemen. If he can replicate that performance as a sophomore, and if the Pioneers can live up to their high expectations, I’d look for Wiercioch to be a big part of the Hobey conversation.

Wisconsin’s top rival Minnesota also missed the NCAA tournament last year, and as the Gophers look to change that, I’ve got my eye on Cade Fairchild. He and Wiercioch are the top two offensive defensemen returning to college hockey, and both actually put up more points than did Jamie McBain. However, the Badgers came closer to the NCAA tournament than did the Gophers, and we know Hobey doesn’t especially like freshmen

When I think of Alaska’s Chad Johnson and Northeastern’s Brad Thiessen, I think of two goalies who took a traditional non-factor and put them in the mix come March. Obviously, Thiessen’s Huskies got into the NCAA tournament, while Johnson’s Nanooks did not, but the profile is still largely the same. I’m going to pick two players here for this role.

As a sophomore. Dartmouth’s Jody O’Neill may be a bit young for the role, but he was a major factor in Dartmouth’s quick turnaround his freshman year. Evan Stephens and Joe Stejskal should lead a strong blueline corps in front of him, so O’Neill will have a chance to put the Big Green in the NCAA tournament after spending the majority of Bob Gaudet’s tenure on the wrong side of the bubble. If that happens, look for him to get some Hobey buzz.

Certainly, the perennial also-ran with the highest expectations this season is UMass-Lowell, and the River Hawks have gotten strong goaltending in the past from both Carter Hutton and Nevin Hamilton. If one of those two netminders can grab the reins and drive the River Hawks into the NCAA tournament, that’s a good place to look for a Hobey finalist.

Viktor Stalberg was one of three Hobey finalists I didn’t see coming last season, so it’s going to be a little bit difficult for me to figure out who fills the role. It’s tempting to pick his younger brother, Vermont freshman Sebastian Stalberg, but let’s let the kid adjust to college hockey a bit, huh?

I think the things that stood out to me about Stalberg when I had the chance to watch him are his skill level and the balance he was able to strike between goals and assists. It’s a combination that Louie Caporusso has at Michigan, obviously, but he’s already on the list.

Boston University junior Nick Bonino is the top returning scorer for the reigning national champions, and the top returning goal-scorer as well. He was a bit more of an assist man last season, but with two finishers like Brandon Yip and Jason Lawrence graduating, Bonino will be called on to keep putting the puck in the net, and if you’re looking for potential Hobey contenders, a guy who had 50 points a year ago is a good place to start.

Army’s Owen Meyer fits more in the roll of “Small Conference Superstar” currently held by Jacques Lamoureux, but he’s worth keeping an eye on if Lamoureux’s numbers drop this season. He was part of a really nice line two seasons ago with Luke Flicek and Bryce Hollweg, and had 21 goals and 18 assists. His numbers fell off a bit last season, but if he can come back strong as a senior, I’d look at him for a potential Hobey finalist spot.

Colin Wilson’s low goal total last season made it hard to take him seriously as a true contender for the Hobey, but there was no denying that he was one of college hockey’s top players last season, and a major factor in Boston University’s run to the NCAA title. A player who hands out the helpers with the skill and frequency that Wilson showed last season will be part of the mix.

In some ways, Jordan Schroeder is almost the opposite of Wilson: he certainly doesn’t have have Wilson’s stacked physique, and while Wilson’s stock skyrocketed heading into the draft (largely due to said physique), Schroeder fell from a projected Top-5 pick to a late first-round grab by the Canucks. Still, Schroeder is a top assist man, and like Wilson, he impressed at the World Junior Championship. What’s more, like Wilson last year, Schroeder is part of a proud program looking to restore itself to glory after missing the NCAA tournament.

The other assist man I’d keep an eye on is Aaron Palushaj of Michigan. Some people had him pegged for a finalist spot last year, but that spot went to Caporusso because Hobey prefers goals. That said, Palushaj showed himself to be an elite setup man, and there is an opening for one of those this season.

(Added 10/21: My bad on the Palushaj pick…insert grumbling about early signings here…let’s give it another go…Ryan Lasch and Garrett Roe of St. Cloud have been on my radar for a while, and they’re both upperclassmen now. Lasch has filled this role before, when he was a Hobey finalist two seasons ago, and Roe was one of my picks as a Hobey finalist last season, although the real voters disagreed. I feel like one or both of these guys could easily get back to that level one more time.)

Let’s be perfectly honest. There’s no one in college hockey this season whose overall package of on- and off-ice can be compared to Matt Gilroy. This isn’t fawning or putting Gilroy up on a pedestal: it’s just a matter of fact. Really, how often do you find a walk-on who switches positions as a freshman, develops into an all-American as a sophomore, turns down more than 20 pro offers after his junior year, then winds up captaining the best team in the country to a national championship as a senior? It just doesn’t happen, and that it did with Matt Gilroy will long remain one of the best stories that college hockey has ever produced. I would say the same for Jeff Lerg and Jacques Lamoureux as well, but we’re not talking about those guys right now.

As good as Gilroy’s story is, it doesn’t make him last year’s Hobey winner without the on-ice component, so let’s start with that. I’m looking for a defenseman in a leadership position on an elite team that missed the NCAA tournament last season (as BU did in 2008).

I just talked to Wisconsin’s Ryan McDonagh for a New York Daily News feature, and the Badgers certainly fit the profile as a traditional power that watched from home back in March. As a first-round NHL draft pick and former Mr. Hockey in his home state of Minnesota, McDonagh doesn’t have Gilroy’s underdog story, and he also doesn’t have the track record that Gilroy had built at BU before last season. Still, he’s likely to eventually be Gilroy’s teammate with the New York Rangers after Montreal traded his draft rights this past summer, and McBain’s departure will leave some bigtime minutes to fill, and McDonagh, one of the Badgers’ tri-captains this season, is a likely candidate to do some of the filling.

The other guy I’d keep an eye on is Chris Summers of Michigan. Sure, Michigan didn’t miss the NCAA tournament last season, but the Wolverines did take a kick in the collective gut with their first-round loss to Air Force, so there’s a certain amount of pride to be reclaimed. As for Summers himself, he’s Michigan’s captain, and he’s a first-round draft pick who opted to play all four years of college hockey (although, when your NHL draft rights are held by the ugly mess of an organization that is the Phoenix Coyotes, that probably makes the decision easier). Summers has seen time both at forward and on defense in his time at Michigan, and he’ll need a big breakout season to get into the Hobey conversation, but he’s certainly the kind of guy I’d keep my eye on.

Of course, as we’ve seen, my preseason casting call isn’t a particularly reliable indicator as to who’s going to be a Hobey finalist at the end of the year, but then, picking teams at the beginning of the season is dicey enough, let alone picking players. As such, this is as good a place to start as any, and we’ll see where it goes from here.

Stay tuned.

The USCHO.com/CBS College Sports Division I preseason men’s poll is out today, and I’ll be the first one to tell you that it doesn’t mean a whole heck of a lot.

Really, what do we have to go on? Last season and a lot of conjecture, neither of which tends to amount to anything definitive a few weeks into the season.

Let’s look back at last year’s preseason poll. We had Boston College ranked first and Colorado College third. Neither made the NCAA tournament.

If that happens again, only one of Denver, Boston University and Michigan will make the field of 16. Sounds pretty far-fetched, right? Maybe it is, but just remember that being near the top of the poll at this point isn’t as much of an indicator of success as it is a forecast of potential. And you’ve always got to be careful when throwing the word “potential” out there.

That being said, I tried to put together as educated a guess as I could when I filled out my first ballot of the season. Here’s how it looked:

1. Denver
2. Boston University
3. Michigan
4. Notre Dame
5. Miami
6. North Dakota
7. Yale
8. UMass-Lowell
9. New Hampshire
10. Minnesota
11. Vermont
12. Wisconsin
13. Cornell
14. Princeton
15. Boston College
16. Ohio State
17. St. Cloud State
18. Harvard
19. Northeastern
20. Air Force

If you’re counting, that’s six teams from Hockey East, five from the WCHA, four each from the CCHA and the ECAC and one from Atlantic Hockey. That’s the same breakdown as the top 20 in the RPI at selection time last season. That’s not a coincidence.

The actual poll shows six teams from Hockey East, six from the WCHA (I didn’t think Minnesota-Duluth would get as much attention after losing so much from last season), four from the CCHA, three from the ECAC and one from Atlantic Hockey.

Nice to see you again. Good summer? Ours was fine, thanks.

The offseason is just about over — in case you missed it, college hockey won’t look quite the same after this season because of what took place over the last few months — and soon enough, USCHO will be getting back to full speed.

Things have already started moving, with the preseason conference polls rolling out here and there. For the second year in a row, I compiled the results for a WCHA media poll (this year, for madison.com), and the benefit of that is that I get the raw data to detail for you here. I could spend way too much time doing that, so here we go.

(The actual poll, along with the coaches’ poll, can be found here.)

It was absolutely no surprise that Denver was the overwhelming favorite. The Pioneers return 2.93 goals per game from last season (that statistic, however, includes stats from Dustin Jackson, who will miss the season with a broken right leg), are stacked on defense with Patrick Wiercioch leading the way and have a dependable goalie in Marc Cheverie.

There wasn’t that much of a gap between the teams picked for second, third and fourth, which tells me that North Dakota, Wisconsin and Minnesota should be right in the mix. I think everyone’s getting the idea that if you think North Dakota lost too much to be a contender, you’re probably wrong. The Sioux lost five regular forwards and three regular defensemen, but they’re a pretty solid pick for one of the top spots — 24 of the 25 voters had them in the top four.

People think St. Cloud State will be good enough to make the top five, and that might be shorting the Huskies considering the top-end offense they have in the fold.

Eight of the 25 voters picked Minnesota-Duluth to finish in the top five. Six others picked the Bulldogs to end up eighth or ninth. It seems there are a lot of questions with UMD, and after it lost nearly half of its regular lineup, they seem valid.

More people picked Colorado College for eighth than seventh, but four voters picked the Tigers to finish in the top five, compared to just one for Minnesota State. Alaska-Anchorage and Michigan Tech were unanimous bottom-half picks.

Here’s how my ballot looked:

1. Denver
2. North Dakota
3. Minnesota
4. Wisconsin
5. St. Cloud State
6. Colorado College
7. Minnesota State
8. Minnesota-Duluth
9. Alaska-Anchorage
10. Michigan Tech

It’s funny how all of this seems to make sense now, only to look so pathetic when comparing it to the final standings in March.

Minnesota forward Jordan Schroeder got 14 of the 23 votes for player of the year (not all voters wanted to cast ballots for the individual awards). Denver players had their votes split — Wiercioch got four, forward Rhett Rakhshani got three and goaltender Marc Cheverie got one — while North Dakota defenseman Chay Genoway also got one vote.

Wiercioch got my vote. Nothing against Schroeder, but I thought Wiercioch was a better player last season, too. Of course, I saw the Denver defenseman play against Wisconsin a bunch of times last year, so maybe I saw his best games.

Seven players got votes for the rookie of the year — a pretty typical response considering you never really know what to expect from freshmen. St. Cloud State goaltender Mike Lee was the leader with seven. Minnesota-Duluth defenseman Dylan Olsen had four votes, while Wisconsin forward Craig Smith, Minnesota defenseman Nick Leddy and North Dakota forward Danny Kristo had three each. Denver forward Drew Shore and Minnesota forward Zach Budish got one vote each.

I had a tough time with this one, but I went with Kristo. I understand why Lee got many of the votes, but I just wasn’t ready to commit to a goalie that may not play every night this season. With a lot of big-time players gone from last year’s team in North Dakota, Kristo should get his chance.

The voting for all-league team shook out like this:

Forwards — Schroeder 22, Ryan Lasch (SCSU) 19, Rakhshani 6, Justin Fontaine (UMD) 6, Joe Colborne (DU) 3, Chris VandeVelde (UND) 3, Anthony Maiani (DU) 3, Tyler Ruegsegger (DU) 2, Kael Mouillierat (MSU) 2, Garrett Roe (SCSU) 2, Derek Stepan (UW) 2, Mike Connolly (UMD) 1, Jack Connolly (UMD) 1.

Defensemen — Wiercioch 20, Genoway 16, Ryan McDonagh (UW) 6, Cade Fairchild (Minnesota) 3, Garrett Raboin (SCSU) 2, Aaron Ness (Minnesota) 1.

Goaltenders — Cheverie 17, Brad Eidsness (UND) 5, Lee 2.

My ballot had Lasch, Schroeder, Rakhshani, Wiercioch, Genoway and Eidsness. I went on my best judgments from last season and hoped that things carried over to this year.

Another year, another poll. Now it’s time to work on the national top 20. Anyone have any suggestions on that one?

Feedback? Contact me here.

Matt Gilroy, welcome to the club.

No, not the Hobey Baker winners. This group is even more elusive than that one.

In the first 28 years of the Hobey Baker Memorial Award, only four players have won the Hobey and the NCAA title in the same season: Tony Hrkac at North Dakota in 1987, Lane MacDonald at Harvard in 1989, Paul Kariya at Maine in 1993, and, most recently, Jordan Leopold at Minnesota in 2002.

Saturday night, Gilroy became the fifth member of that elite group, although to hear him after BU’s national championship win over Miami, that was – as it should be for any hockey player worth his salt – the furthest thing from his mind.

“I wouldn’t have won anything this year if it wasn’t for the team I was on,” Gilroy said. “My co-captains John McCarthy and Brian Strait did an unbelievable job, and what we did as a team was why I won the Hobey Baker.”

Now, the fact of the matter is this: the story of this night is not about Matt Gilroy. What happened on Saturday night at the Verizon Center was never going to make Gilroy any more or less worthy a Hobey Baker winner. There are certainly players that we have come back to and questioned over the years as to whether they deserved to win the Hobey. Matt Gilroy will not be one of them.

However, to see Gilroy reach even more rarified air raises the question: why are there so few? Why have only five players in nearly 30 years accomplished this feat?

Part of it, of course, is the simple fact that, as Brendan Morrison so infamously said, “The best team doesn’t always win.” Now, he’s taken a lot of flak for saying that – there is such a thing as timing, after all - but it’s absolutely true. Just ask Notre Dame: you can make a great argument that the team that lost to Michigan State at the Midwest Regional in 2007 and the team that lost to Bemidji State this year were better teams than the team that made it to last year’s national championship game.

Jack Parker touched on it when he said, “The teams that are supposed to win this tournament, most of the time, don’t. They think they had a great year, and they come in as the No. 1 seed, but the team that plays great in March and April is the team that wins the tournament.”

Having a player like a Matt Carle, or a Ryan Miller, or a Brendan Morrison can certainly contribute to the feeling that you’re going to win a national title…although great coaches like George Gwozdecky, Ron Mason and Red Berenson know perfectly well that it takes more than that.

Another element is the way that the Hobey is awarded. I’ve written about it at length this season in regards to Colin Wilson: he didn’t score the number of goals necessary to win the Hobey as a forward. That may not be fair – in fact, it probably isn’t – but the Hobey Baker voters have a history of liking forwards who score lots of goals. Forwards who score lots of goals don’t necessarily play on teams that have the balance to go far in the NCAA tournament.

In that sense, it makes sense that Matt Gilroy is joining Leopold, Kariya, MacDonald and Hrkac in that elite group, because he didn’t win as a numbers guy. He won as a two-way defenseman who had an outstanding four-year career, turned down more than 20 pro contract offers last summer, and came back to lead his team to the Frozen Four as one of the best captains in BU history. Players like that are key members of championship teams, so it’s only fitting that this man is one of those.

In the end, though, the answer to why there aren’t more of these guys, is much simpler than that.

“I think it’s hard to do either one of those things, period,” Parker said. “And, therefore, to double up in the same season is a real difficult task. I say this all the time. People don’t understand unless you’re in the trenches how difficult it is to win the national championship.

“And then, people don’t understand how difficult it is for people’s opinions – a lot of sports writers, a lot of different coaches and a lot of different people to vote get in the Hobey Baker. How they come up with who is the best player in the nation is a hard thing to do. It’s a hard thing to win. You’ve got two very, very difficult things to do. To place them both in the year doubles up the odds.”

Really, in the end, it makes all the sense in the world: winning the biggest thing you can as an individual and as a team in college hockey is about as difficult as it gets in college hockey for any one player.

Whether Matt Gilroy turns out to be one of the greatest players ever to play college hockey remains to be seen; he’ll certainly be well-paid in the near future, and what happens after that…well, we’ll see. However, after this season, there’s no doubt that he deserves to be remembered as one of college hockey’s all-time greats.

Goodnight from the Verizon Center.

If you made it this far, thanks for reading. If next year’s NCAA has half the excitement as this season’s, it will be a dandy.

Have a great summer and we’ll see you in the Motor City.

One of Bowling Green’s prominent hockey alumni is involved in an effort to make sure the program stays alive in tough times for the athletic department.

Washington Capitals general manager George McPhee said in a meeting with reporters in the second intermission of Saturday’s national championship game that he hosted a meeting Friday with Bowling Green athletic director Greg Christopher and other alums to talk about the program’s future.

“How did we get from where we were 20 years ago, as a hockey powerhouse, to this?” McPhee said.

A budget shortfall caused the school to postpone renovations to its arena, fueling speculation that the program was on its last legs.

Christopher said last month that the Falcons would play again next season, but the long-term future is unsettled.

McPhee, who won the Hobey Baker Award in 1982, two years before the Falcons won the national championship, said some plans are in the works to get the alumni involved.

“We’re going to have a group to work on the arena and a group to work on the program,” McPhee said.

He added: “I think we can get right back up to that [championship] level again.”

McPhee also addressed other subjects Saturday:

** On the tournament: “This is a nice trip down memory lane. We’re really pleased with how it’s gone. We thought the Washington market would respond to this, and they did.”

** On the potential for a Division I college hockey team in the area: “I think that’s something we’d like to discuss and see if we can get something going in the near future. It would be nice if we could get some Division I college hockey here in the near future.”

He added, though, that was “just a dream right now.” But he said there is “a lot of potential.”

Sometimes you get them, sometimes, they get you. Colby Cohen’s shot was partially blocked by Kevin Roeder, but the puck floated into the back of the net.

RedHawks coach Enrico Blasi was asked about the tough bounce after the game.

“Are you talking about those bounces I talk about all the time?,” he said. “What do you do, Kevin makes a great play, sacrifices his body. Goes over Cody’s head and into the net. That’s what happens in overtime, you know? And you give — let’s not take anything from BU’s win, too. They played great. They executed when they had to. And the game in overtime could have gone either way.”

Miami has the best record in Division I over the past five seasons. They probably had a better team last season, but got farther than any team in any sport in school history. The RedHawks will be back.

An amazing comeback caps an amazing tournament. Colby Cohen’s shot from the near faceoff circle is deflected by a diving Miami defenseman, floating past Reichard on his glove side at 11:47 of overtime.

Boston University — your 2009 National Champions.

The view from the pressbox, six stories up:

The overtime starts with a few (IMHO) non-calls. BU’s had the better of things early in the ot.

So far in this tournament, the team with the late heroics has gone on to win. Can Miami collect itself after blowing a two-goal lead in the final minute?