Every year when we start looking at the PairWise comparisons, we get a few questions and one comes up more than any others. It has come up this year again.

A reader wrote to us and asked, “I think that the PairWise has a bug. Miami and Bemidji State should be tied in Comparison Points, 2-2. The criteria in question is the TUC criteria, in which Miami has a better percentage. So they should win this comparison and the comparison should be 2-2, not 2-1 in favor of Bemidji State.”

Let’s take a look at this a little more closely.

As of January 29th’s games, Miami’s record against TUCs is 9-1-5, .7667. Bemidji State’s is 3-1-0, .7500.

So the reader is right. No, the reader is not.

From the NCAA Division I Men’s Ice Hockey Handbook:

“This category is only used only if the two teams being compared have played a minimum of ten games versus ‘teams under consideration’.”

In every day terms, if a team hasn’t played ten games against TUCs, then that criteria is not used to compare two teams.

Translated back to our PairWise comparisons, it means that for any comparison involving Bemidji State as one of the two teams, the TUC criteria is not used.

Yeah, that’s right, there’s a Bracketology today because we put the PWR up.  I think most people know it doesn’t really matter much right now, but you know what?  People like to see it.  Track your team, or the team you hate.  Have some fun, that’s what it’s all about right?

So, what would a Bracketology look like today?  I’ll let you know as I sit in a hotel room in Munich…

A reminder on the sites of the regionals:

East – Albany, N.Y. (host – Rensselaer)

Northeast – Worcester, Mass. (host – Holy Cross)

Midwest – Ft. Wayne, Ind. (host – Notre Dame)

West – St. Paul, Minn. (host – Minnesota)

Who are our conference champions that get the assumed autobids based upon winning percentage?

Atlantic Hockey – Air Force

CCHA – Miami

CHA – Bemidji State

ECAC – Quinnipiac (The Bobcats won the coin toss over Cornell)

Hockey East – Massachusetts

WCHA – Colorado College (The Tigers won the three-way coin toss over Denver and North Dakota)

Our Top 16 teams in the PWR, plus those teams not in the Top 16 that are conference champions (as of Nov. 9, 2009):

1.  Bemidji State

2.  Miami

3.  Michigan State

4.  North Dakota

5.  Quinnipiac

6.  Massachusetts

7.  Alaska

8.  Cornell

9.  Western Michigan

10. Boston College

11. Colorado College

12. Notre Dame

13. Denver

14. Mass.-Lowell

15. Minn.-Duluth

16. Nebraska-Omaha

–  Air Force

Therefore the 16 teams in the tournament as of Nov. 9, 2009 are:

1.  Bemidji State

2.  Miami

3.  Michigan State

4.  North Dakota

5.  Quinnipiac

6.  Massachusetts

7.  Alaska

8.  Cornell

9.  Western Michigan

10. Boston College

11. Colorado College

12. Notre Dame

13. Denver

14. Mass.-Lowell

15. Minn.-Duluth

16.  Air Force

Our Brackets:

West Regional (St. Paul)

1. Bemidji State vs. 16 Air Force

8 Cornell vs. 9 Western Michigan

East Regional (Albany)

2 Miami vs. 15 Minn.-Duluth

7 Alaska vs. 10 Boston College

Northeast Regional (Worcester)

3 Michigan State vs. 13 Denver

6 Massachusetts vs. 11 Colorado College

Midwest Regional (Ft. Wayne)

4 North Dakota vs. 14 Mass.-Lowell

5 Quinnipiac vs. 12 Notre Dame

I am not going to get into the craziness of attendance, etc.

It does say one thing though: while the PWR at this time of year might be fun to look at, it don’t mean squat.

Well, I hit it pretty much on the head in the Final Bracketology when I said that the committee would move Minnesota-Duluth to Minneapolis for attendance purposes.

My downfall for the perfect bracket?

The committee swapped the entire matchup, not just UMD and Northeastern.  So they also swapped Cornell and Princeton to keep the matchup the same.

And that’s it.  It’s pretty straightforward from there.

The games are done.  Thanks for reading all during the season, we’ll be back soon with our final Bracketology.

So, should BU throw the Hockey East Championship Game?

Let’s look at it this way, if BU defeats Mass.-Lowell that means the number four seeds are Miami, Ohio State, Atlantic Hockey winner and Bemidji State.  The number one seeds are BU, Notre Dame, Michigan and Denver.

Michigan and Notre Dame can not play Miami or Ohio State.  Leaving Michigan and Notre Dame to play the Atlantic Hockey Winner and Bemidji State and leaving Ohio State and Miami to play Boston University and Denver.

Here’s the bottom line:

If BU defeats Lowell, BU will draw Ohio State in the first round of a regional.  If Lowell defeats BU, BU will get Bemidji State or the Atlantic Hockey winner.

So ask yourselves BU fans, would you sacrifice a Hockey East Championship to get an on paper easier first round regional game?

Even after the afternoon games, Minnesota is still 14th in the PairWise Rankings by itself, leading some to ask how we can claim the Gophers are out of the NCAA tournament.

The answer lies with the Hockey East championship game between Boston University and Massachusetts-Lowell. The way it works out, no matter which team wins it hurts the Gophers.

UML winning is obvious — it gives the River Hawks the Hockey East autobid and therefore takes away an at-large spot, leaving Minnesota on the outside.

If BU wins Hockey East, it’s also bad for the Gophers, but in a different way. UML losing to BU drops Lowell’s Ratings Percentage Index enough to give the Ohio State-UML comparison to OSU.

That puts Ohio State into a tie with Minnesota for 14th, and the Buckeyes then win the tiebreaker. Wisconsin can get into the mix as well by flipping its own comparison with UML, in which case OSU wins the three-way battle for 14th and the last at-large bid.

Breaking things down a little bit going into the evening sessions, here are where teams can finish in terms of overall seeding:

1 – Boston University

2 – Notre Dame

3/4 – Michigan/Denver

5 – Yale

6-8 Northeastern

6-11 Minn.-Duluth, North Dakota, Vermont, Cornell

10-11 New Hampshire

12 Princeton

13 Miami

14 Mass.-Lowell/Ohio State

15 Air Force/Mercyhurst

16 Bemidji State

The third place games are over with and it has resulted in this:

The elimination of both St. Lawrence and Minnesota from NCAA contention.

Princeton clinched its spot in the big dance with the tie this afternoon and now there is only one spot left.

That one spot will go to either Mass.-Lowell or Ohio State.

If Mass.-Lowell wins, it gets the spot, if it loses, Ohio State gets the spot.

It’s that simple right now heading into the evening games.

In the wake of Wisconsin’s 4-1 victory over North Dakota in the WCHA third-place game, Minnesota can still make the NCAA tournament, but the chances are slimmer than slim.

It was known last night that a UW win was bad for the Gophers because it caused the Wisconsin-Minnesota head-to-head pairwise comparison to flip. Minnesota still isn’t quite dead pending the Princeton-St. Lawrence outcome, though.

The following scenario taken from the PairWise Predictor illustrates that point.

CCHA Championship game: Michigan defeats Notre Dame
ECAC Championship game: Yale defeats Cornell
ECAC Consolation game: St. Lawrence defeats Princeton
Hockey East Championship game: Boston University defeats Mass.-Lowell
WCHA Championship game: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Denver
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Mercyhurst defeats Air Force

Go ahead and see — Minnesota ends up in a tie for 13th with St. Lawrence and in the tournament. In this situation, Michigan over Notre Dame is key since it influences the Ratings Percentage Index in such a way as to give Minnesota a comparison win over Princeton.

Wild, no? But that’s the PairWise. Mercyhurst over Air Force is important for a different reason — AFA can win its head-to-head comparison with Minnesota if it wins today. That knocks the Gophers down and potentially out no matter what else happens.

If Princeton wins or ties, the Gophers’ scenario is much bleaker. I have yet to find a scenario that puts Minnesota in the NCAAs without a St. Lawrence win in the ECAC third-place game. There may be one somewhere, but I don’t know what it is.

Let’s see, NMU has won and Wisconsin will win.  Things not looking good for Minnesota if Princeton continues to lead SLU.  It’s 2-1 in the third right now.  Gopher fans are rooting very hard for SLU to win this game.