Some intriguing matchups this weekend:

#9 Adrian at #1 Oswego (1/8) – The Bulldogs come in for a single game. This would have been an even more anticipated game before last weekend, when Adrian was swept by Hamline for its first two losses of the season. The Bulldogs dropped from No. 4 to No. 9 as a result.

#2 Plattsburgh at #6 Elmira (1/9) – The Cardinals are coming off a loss on Tuesday to Norwich. One of the biggest non-conference rivalries in D-III.

#3 Norwich at Bowdoin (1/8) and Colby (1/9) – This trip is always a tough one, and will present one of the few remaining challenges for the Cadets (the Middlebury/Williams trip in early February being another).

#4 St. Norbert at Concordia (MN) (1/8) – It’s a ten hour bus ride from Green Bay to Moorhead, Minn. The Green Knights will play St. John’s on the way back on Saturday.

#5 St. Scholastica at #7 Hamline (1/8) – A nice matchup between a pair of teams having good seasons.

University of New England at New England College – Just because I can imagine how confusing this will be for the radio broadcasters.

Thanks to Dave Moody, former color analyst for Norwich, for sharing this. It really captures the excitement of Division III Hockey. Look for former cadet and current Neumann coach Dominik Dawes, who coached his team to the national title in his first year behind the bench.

Norwich Hockey 100 Years

The end of the year and the beginning of the next means another round of Division III holiday tournaments. All the action takes place in the East, with MSOE and St. Mary’s making the trip for a couple of out-of-region games.

Here’s a look at the various tournaments, including a rating of the strength of the field, based on winning percentage:

Assumption Holiday Tournament
When: December 28 & 29
Who: Assumption (host), Manhattanville, Becker, SUNY Canton
Strength of Field: .544
Outlook: Canton adds a twist to this tournament, which has a pre-established schedule. The host Greyhounds and Becker will play Canton and Manhattanville, SUNY Canton was a junior college powerhouse, but is now a club program after the school became four-year college. Assumption beat Canton 3-2 earlier this season. I think Manhattanville will be the only team to come out with a pair of wins this weekend.

Codfish Bowl
When: December 28 & 29
Who: Mass-Boston (host), Johnson & Wales, S. New Hampshire, Suffolk
Strength of Field: .369
Outlook: The oldest Division III tournament (45 years and counting) should go to the host Beacons, which I’m picking to beat Suffolk in the finals.

Cardinal Classic
When January 1 & 2
Who: Plattsburgh (host), Castleton, Trinity, Skidmore
Strength of Field: .603
Outlook: The Cardinals should take this one, although I think Trinity will give them a game in the finals.

Times-Argus Invitational
When: January 1 & 2
Who: Norwich (host), Curry, New England, Potsdam
Strength of Field: .706
Outlook: The Norwichh-Curry game should be a dandy, with the two teams coming in undefeated with identical 7-0-1 records. I like the winner to beat Potsdam in the finals.

Middlebury Holiday Classic
When: January 2 & 3
Who: Middlebury (host), Babson, Salve Regina, S. Maine
Strength of Field: .406
Outlook: I think it will be the battle of the Beaney brothers in the finals with the host Panthers coming out on top.

St. Michael’s Holiday Tournament
When: January 2 & 3
Who: St. Michael’s (host), Morrisville, Wentworth, Hamilton
Strength of Field: .485
Outlook: This is another pre-determined field, with St. Mike’s and Hamilton playing Wentworth and Morrisville, I think Wentworth will win both its games.

Oswego Pathfinder Classic
When: January 2 @ 3
Who: Oswego (host), Conn College, Elmira, MSOE
Strength of Field: .663
Outlook: Baring an upset, this is going to feature an Elmira-Oswego final, and these two teams always play an entertaining game.

Nichols New Year’s Tournament
When: January 2 & 3
Who: Nichols (host), St. Mary’s, Lebanon Valley, Wesleyan
Strength of Field: .235
Outlook: Four struggling teams are involved. I’m picking the host Bison, the only team over .500, over Wesleyan in the finals.

Some random D-III observations:

East Meets West

Thanksgiving tournaments saw three teams crossing the “border” to play some out-of-region games. UW-Stout bussed 1,300 miles to Northfield, VT to play in the Primelink Tournament, while Salem State and Buffalo State went West. The Vikings were in Duluth participating in the St. Scholastica tournament while the Bengals bussed to Adrian, MI to play Adrian and Concordia. Buffalo State’s trip to Michigan was actually shorter than a league game in Plattsburgh (345 miles to Adrian compared to 371 miles to Platty).

The East came out on top, four games to two. Buffalo State and Salem State split their games against Western foes (the biggest news was the Vikings’ 3-0 win over Then-Number-One St. Norbert). UW-Stout had a miserable weekend, losing 9-1 to Norwich and 7-3 to Middlebury.

Rise and Fall

A pair of teams crashed and burned in the USCHO.com Division III Poll recently. Back on Nov. 23, Manhattanville was ranked fourth, and UW-Stout was seventh in the nation. After both teams were swept in convincing fashion, the Nov. 30 poll saw Stout out of the Top 15, while Manhattanville dropped to 11th. Following another bad weekend, and both squads are now completely out of the poll, not garnering a single vote between them.

Strong Opening

Salem State defeated top-ranked St. Norbert 3-0 on November 28. Westfield State, in just its second varsity season, tied Salem State a week later. The Owls are turning some heads at 6-1-2. They have some big non-conference games at Amherst and Fredonia to start 2010.

If you like college hockey tournaments, there’s much to be thankful for this weekend. One of the many cool things about D-III hockey is the large number of holiday tournaments taking place (Division I has just three tourneys this weekend). Here’s a rundown of the action, which includes a pair of Western Tourneys. Pack the Turkey sandwiches and catch some if you can:

Primelink Great Northern Shootout
When: November 27 & 28
Who: Norwich (host), Middlebury Norwich, Plattsburgh, UW-Stout
Outlook: Year in and year out, the best D-III tournament with three traditional powers plus a guest. All four teams are ranked in the top ten – it doesn’t get much better. I expect a Plattsburgh-Stout final with the Cards coming out on top.

Adrian Tournament
When: November 27 & 28
Who: Adrian (host), St. John’s, Concordia (MN), Buffalo State
Outlook: The Bulldogs have had trouble getting non-conference games, so a tournament seems the logical solution. Hopefully this will turn into an annual event. I like the hosts to come out on top.

St. Scholastica Tournament
When November 27 & 28
Who: St. Scholstica (host), Salem State, Lawrence, St. Norbert.
Outlook: The three western teams all played at St. Norbert last Thanksgiving. This year St. Scholastica hosts, and I’m picking both the Saint schools (Scholastica and Norbert) to win both their games in this preset format.

Bowdoin/Colby Faceoff Classic
When: November 28 & 29
Who: Bowdoin (host), Colby (host), Salve Regina, US Under 18 Team
Outlook: The two Maine schools will take turn hosting Salve Regina and the US Under 18 Team. I like Team USA to win both its games.

PAL Stovepipe Tournament
When: November 28 & 29
Who: Southern New Hampshire (host), Stonehill, UMass-Boston, Penn State
Outlook: Club powerhouse Penn State adds a nice twist to this tournament. I’m picking Mass-Boston to beat the Nittany Lions in the finals.

Spurrier Tournament
When: November 28 & 29
Who: Wesleyan (host), Trinity, Conn College, Amherst
Outlook: This is the fourth straight year for this tournament, which has rotated among the four schools and returns to Wesleyan. I like Amherst to defeat Trinity in the finals.

Skidmore Invitational
When: November 28 & 29
Who: Skidmore (host), Brockport, University of New England, Nichols
Outlook: New kids on the block UNE make their first tournament appearance. I’m picking Nichols over Brockport in the finals.

Rutland/Herald Invitational
When: November 29 & 30
Who: Castleton (host), Neumann, Tufts, Becker
Outlook: Two-time champs Neumann come back to defend their title. Oh, and they have a national title as well. I’m picking the Knights to three-peat win a win over host Castleton in the finals.

We’re underway with the 2009-2010 season (at least most of the teams are by now). It’s going to be tough to top last season. Neumann College, the last team into the NCAA tournament, a team that finished fourth in the ECAC West and had to play a play-in game to get into its conference playoffs, stunned the Division III world by defeating Gustavus Adolphus, another Cinderella team, to win the national title. It seems like just a couple of weeks ago that I was in the press box at Blue Cross Arena in Rochester, covering the Atlantic Hockey championships but watching in amazement the Division III games from Lake Placid over the internet.

This season looks to keep the craziness going. From Bishops in net to the USCHO.com Division III men’s poll, wackiness is in the air.

Preseason polls tend to be unsettled. Teams that finish at or near the top last season are shown respect irregardless of what their teams may look like this season. Up and coming teams get their due, and then you have the perinnial powers who tend to reload and not rebuild.

This year’s first poll is exceptionally diverse with eight teams getting at least one first place vote and a total of 27 squads getting a mention.

Stay tuned for regular weekly polls beginning November 9.

I’ve been covering Division III hockey before any of the guys on your national champion Neumann Knights were born. And I have never seen anything like what transpired this post season. Starting with the ECAC East playoffs, it was a wild an unpredictable ride that saw two unheralded teams playing in the national title game.

Neumann was the last team into the tournament, which for them essentially started with the ECAC West playoffs. The Knights needed to win a play-in game to make the semifinals, and then defeat Elmira and Hobart in their rinks to earn its way into the tournament. Ditto Gustavus Adolphus, which had to knock off the two favored MIAC teams to win it way into the NCCA’s.

Even without some traditional powerhouses like St. Norbert, Middlebury and Norwich, there was still Plattsburgh, (ranked #1 for 13 straight weeks to end the season), UW-Superior, and Amherst. But the final four included two teams (UW-Stout and Neumann) than had never been there, one team with a senior class that had made the national semifinals their freshman year (Hobart) and a team who hadn’t been to the national semifinals since 1982 (Gustavus).

I saw the Knights in the infancy of their program, and it wasn’t an easy childhood. Here’s some of the growing pains:

* The first time Neumann played Hobart, it lost 15-0 (10/31/1998)
* Neumann scored 14 goals in ten varsity games its first season (0-10)
* Neumann won its first varisty game on 11/20/1999 (8-7 win over Scranton)
* The Knights were 14-125-5 their first seven seasons
* Neumann lost 24-0 to RIT on 2/5/2002. They were outscored 215-37 that year, their first in the ECAC West
* Neumann’s first winning season was in 2005-2006, when these seniors were freshman. Since then the Knights are 69-23-8
* First year Neumann Coach Dominick Dawes is just five years out of college. He played in three final fours for Norwich, winning a national title in 2003 and graduating in 2004.
* Hats off to the previous two Neumann coaches: Dennis Williams (now an assistant at Alabama-Huntsville), who turned the program around, and Phil Roy (now an assistant at Bowling Green) who brought in this year’s talented freshman class.

Congratulations to all the teams, and especially all the seniors, who made this seaon so memorable.

The picks and pairings have been announced. My thoughts:

Looks like they went strictly by seedings:

E1. Plattsburgh
E2. Amherst
E3. Hobart
E4. Elmira
E5. Neumann
E6. Nichols
E7. Babson

W1. UW-Superior
W2. UW-Stout
W3. St. Scholastica
W4. Gustavus Adolphus

It looks like St. Norbert was 4.3 seconds away from being about to defend its title. If Hobart beats Neumann, the Green Knights are in and the just plain Knights are out.

The East gets all three play-in games, which I said I didn’t think would happen, but, since the West has had its #2 seed in a play-in for the past few years, I guess the precedent was clear.

Other than maybe switching Hobart and Elmira, I would have made these same picks myself, although I thought could have been 6-5. But I guess the east has three play-in games in exchange for another team in the tournament.

…and the NCAA selection committee is meeting as I write this final version of Bracketlology. We’ll be doing an analysis of the picks once they are announced, but for now the waiting game is on.

If you’re just joining us, we know the criteria used by the NCAA Division III Men’s Committee to select and seed the teams, but not the weighting used in their evaluation. You can see what an equal weighting would look like using USCHO East, West and combined Pairwise Comparisons.

Each of the past three Tuesdays, the NCAA has produced rankings based on the process it will use to select the Division III field.

There are 11 teams invited: 6 Pool A teams, 1 Pool B Team, and 4 Pool C teams. Pool A consists of the six teams that will win playoff championships in leagues with an automatic qualifier: ECAC East, ECAC Northeast, NCHA, NESCAC, MIAC, and SUNYAC. A Pool B slot is reserved for an independent team or team from a conference that does not have an AQ: ECAC West and MCHA. Pool C bids will be handed out to the highest remaining teams according to the NCAA rankings.

So after an exciting weekend of championship games, here’s where we stand:

Pool A: UW-Stout, Gustavus Adolphus, Plattsburgh, Amherst, Babson, Nichols.

Pool B: Neumann spoiled Hobart’s party by winning the ECAC West title with 4.3 seconds to play last night. Hobart was ahead of Neumann and Elmira in the last NCAA rankings, and would have locked up Pool B with a win. Now, it’s anybody’s guess. If you go straight by the numbers, it’s Elmira by a nose over Hobart and handily of Neumann. While the ECAC West has never had an AQ, the champ has never been left home, provided it was a D-III team. This could get interesting.

Pool C: Here’s who has a realistic chance: Elmira, Hobart, Neumann, UW-Superior, St. Scholastica, St. Norbert, Middlebury. Superior is in for sure. St. Scholastica gets in unless the West gets only three teams. Middlebury was picked higher than Elmira and Neumann in the last NCAA ranking, and went 1-1 since then while Elmira was idle and Neumann won its game. If you go by the criteria straight up, Hobart and Elmira beat Middlebury and Middlebury tops Neumann.

Now, the big question, which will help determine the Pool C teams: Will we have a 6-5, 7-4, or 8-3 split? Here are the ramifications of each:

6-5: St. Nobert gets in, and two of the following teams: Middlebury Elmira, Neumann, Hobart. Two quarterfinals each in the East and West guarantee two Western teams in the Frozen Four.

7-4: The only way this works is to fly teams in the first and quarterfinal round, or have all three play-in games in the East, making six of the seven East teams (i.e, everyone but Plattsburgh) play a first round game and giving four West teams a pass to the quarterfinals. In the first scenario, St. Scholastica gets in as well as three of the four: Middlebury, Hobart, Elmira, Neumann.

8-3: This leaves St. Scholastica out, and puts Middlebury and all three ECAC West teams in.

So…

A 7-4 split would make the most sense if you were truly picking by top at-large teams. But I don’t see making the #2 East team play-in (although they’ve been doing to to the West for years). I’m also thinking they’re not flying teams in every round. 8-3 would be an injustice.

That leaves 6-5. St. Norbert matches up almost even with Elmira and ahead of Neumann and Middlebury, and loses in the criteria to Hobart. If SNC gets in I think they take Hobart too and leave Elmira, Middlebury and Neumann at home. Hobart was ahead of Elmira in the final rankings, so it comes down to how much the loss last night hurts them.

I miss the old days when this process was more transparent. We’ve been back to the smoke-filled room for the past two seasons, which means the outcome is anyone’s guess. We’ll know in a few hours.

The Crystal Ball got as little clearer thanks to last week’s results. The ECAC East was, ahem, interesting, with three of the top four seeds going down. That means someone other than Norwich (that would be New England College) will host the semifinals and final for the first time ever. The ECAC West also saw the top two seeds go under, as well regular season champ St. Olaf in the MIAC.

To reset, we know the criteria used by the NCAA Division III Men’s Committee to select and seed the teams, but not the weighting used in their evaluation. You can see what an equal weighting would look like using USCHO East, West and combined Pairwise Comparisons.

Each of the past three Tuesdays, the NCAA has produced rankings based on the process it will use to select the Division III field.

There are 11 teams invited: 6 Pool A teams, 1 Pool B Team, and 4 Pool C teams. Pool A consists of the six teams that will win playoff championships in leagues with an automatic qualifier: ECAC East, ECAC Northeast, NCHA, NESCAC, MIAC, and SUNYAC. A Pool B slot is reserved for an independent team or team from a conference that does not have an AQ: ECAC West and MCHA. Pool C bids will be handed out to the highest remaining teams according to the NCAA rankings.

Here’s my guess as to where the teams still in the running stand:

A lock: Plattsburgh, UW-Superior – These teams can at most lose one more game, and are comfortably ahead in the key criteria. They’re in no matter what happens from here on out.

Bet On It: UW-Stout, Amherst, Hobart – Hobart was elevated for its win over Manhattanville and Elmira smacked down for its loss to Neumann, more so that I thought it would. I thought based on the criteria that Elmira had Pool B wrapped up, but it now looks (based on the NCAA rankings) that Hobart will claim Pool B if it wins the ECAC West title on Saturday over Neumann. I think that Stout and Amherst can each survive a loss and still get a Pool C bid. They can both of course win their way in.

Good Chance: St. Scholastica, Middlebury, Elmira – CSS should be in, unless there’s an 8-3 split. Middlebury can win its way in, otherwise it has to hope that Amherst, Plattsburgh and Hobart all win. Could Elmira and Hobart flip-flop for Pool B if Hobart loses? It would be close.

On the Bubble: Neumann, St. Norbert, Manhattanville – It’s anyone’s guess (except the committee’s ) how high Neumann would jump with a win at Hobart. St. Norbert would get the nod in the event of a 6-5 split. Manhattanville has a remote chance should the top seeds win and there’s an 8-3 split.

On the Outside: Wait till next year: Norwich, St. Olaf.

Must Win Their AQ: Oswego, Williams, Trinity, New England, Nichols, Curry, Wentworth, Nichols, Fitchburg State, UMass-Boston, Babson, Skidmore, Hamline, Gustavus Adolphus.

OK, so let’s take a shot at a possible bracket, assuming the team in first wins its respective league:
ECAC East: New England
ECAC Northeast: Nichols
MIAC: Gustavus Adolphus
NCHA: UW-Superior
NESCAC: Amherst
SUNYAC: Plattsburgh

Right now, Hobart gets pool B. Who gets the four Pool C bids? Right now the pool consists of: St. Scholastica, UW-Stout, Middlebury, Elmira, St. Norbert, Manhattanville. Things get really interesting if Neumann beats Hobart. They could jump into the mix. If Oswego doesn’t win the SUNYAC, I think the loss drops the Lakers out of Pool C contention.

Now, the big question, which will help determine the Pool C teams: Will we have a 6-5 split with two play-in games in the East and one in the West, or a 7-4 split and give only the top East seed a bye (all play-in games in the East). You could also do a 7-4 split and fly a team in the first and second rounds. This would probably be fairer, but who thinks the NCAA will do that? On the other hand, is it fair to give St. Norbert a spot in the quarterfinals but make Amherst or whoever is the #2 eastern seed play-in? people out West are nodding their heads – they’ve been doing that for the past few seasons.

An 8-3 split would leave either UW-Stout or St. Scholastica out in favor of Manhattanville. The Valiants lose in all criteria to CSS, but stack up more favorably with UW-Stout in the criteria, so I suppose a loss by the Blue Devils could open the door.

If it’s 6-5:

First Round (March 11)
Gustavus at St. Norbert
New England at Hobart
Nichols at Middlebury

Quarterfinals (March 14):
St. Olaf/St. Norbert at UW-Superior
St. Scholastica at UW-Stout
Nichols/Middlebury at Plattsburgh
New England/Hobart at Amherst

If it’s 7-4 with a play-in game in the West:

First Round (March 11)
Gustavus Adolphus at Hobart
Nichols at Elmira
New England at Middlebury

Quarterfinals (March 14):
Gustavus/Hobart at Plattsburgh
Nichols/Elmira at UW-Stout
New England/Middlebury at Amherst
UW-Stout at UW-Superior

If it’s 7-4 without a play-in game in the West:

First Round (March 11):
New England at Amherst
Nichols at Hobart
Elmira at Middlebury

Quarterfinals (March 14):
Elmira/Middlebury at Plattsburgh
Nichols/Hobart at New England/Amherst
St. Norbert at UW-Superior
St. Scholastica at UW-Stout

And, just because you never know:

8-3 Split:

First Round (March 11)
Gustavus at UW-Stout
Nichols at Elmira
New England at Manhattanville

Quarterfinals (March 14):
New England.Manhattanville at Plattsburgh
Gustavus/UW-Stout at UW-Superior
Nichols/Elmira at Amherst
Middlebury at Hobart

We’ll be doing one more of these after the playoffs have ended and before the NCAA makes its picks.