We’re underway with the 2009-2010 season (at least most of the teams are by now). It’s going to be tough to top last season. Neumann College, the last team into the NCAA tournament, a team that finished fourth in the ECAC West and had to play a play-in game to get into its conference playoffs, stunned the Division III world by defeating Gustavus Adolphus, another Cinderella team, to win the national title. It seems like just a couple of weeks ago that I was in the press box at Blue Cross Arena in Rochester, covering the Atlantic Hockey championships but watching in amazement the Division III games from Lake Placid over the internet.

This season looks to keep the craziness going. From Bishops in net to the USCHO.com Division III men’s poll, wackiness is in the air.

Preseason polls tend to be unsettled. Teams that finish at or near the top last season are shown respect irregardless of what their teams may look like this season. Up and coming teams get their due, and then you have the perinnial powers who tend to reload and not rebuild.

This year’s first poll is exceptionally diverse with eight teams getting at least one first place vote and a total of 27 squads getting a mention.

Stay tuned for regular weekly polls beginning November 9.

I’ve been covering Division III hockey before any of the guys on your national champion Neumann Knights were born. And I have never seen anything like what transpired this post season. Starting with the ECAC East playoffs, it was a wild an unpredictable ride that saw two unheralded teams playing in the national title game.

Neumann was the last team into the tournament, which for them essentially started with the ECAC West playoffs. The Knights needed to win a play-in game to make the semifinals, and then defeat Elmira and Hobart in their rinks to earn its way into the tournament. Ditto Gustavus Adolphus, which had to knock off the two favored MIAC teams to win it way into the NCCA’s.

Even without some traditional powerhouses like St. Norbert, Middlebury and Norwich, there was still Plattsburgh, (ranked #1 for 13 straight weeks to end the season), UW-Superior, and Amherst. But the final four included two teams (UW-Stout and Neumann) than had never been there, one team with a senior class that had made the national semifinals their freshman year (Hobart) and a team who hadn’t been to the national semifinals since 1982 (Gustavus).

I saw the Knights in the infancy of their program, and it wasn’t an easy childhood. Here’s some of the growing pains:

* The first time Neumann played Hobart, it lost 15-0 (10/31/1998)
* Neumann scored 14 goals in ten varsity games its first season (0-10)
* Neumann won its first varisty game on 11/20/1999 (8-7 win over Scranton)
* The Knights were 14-125-5 their first seven seasons
* Neumann lost 24-0 to RIT on 2/5/2002. They were outscored 215-37 that year, their first in the ECAC West
* Neumann’s first winning season was in 2005-2006, when these seniors were freshman. Since then the Knights are 69-23-8
* First year Neumann Coach Dominick Dawes is just five years out of college. He played in three final fours for Norwich, winning a national title in 2003 and graduating in 2004.
* Hats off to the previous two Neumann coaches: Dennis Williams (now an assistant at Alabama-Huntsville), who turned the program around, and Phil Roy (now an assistant at Bowling Green) who brought in this year’s talented freshman class.

Congratulations to all the teams, and especially all the seniors, who made this seaon so memorable.

The picks and pairings have been announced. My thoughts:

Looks like they went strictly by seedings:

E1. Plattsburgh
E2. Amherst
E3. Hobart
E4. Elmira
E5. Neumann
E6. Nichols
E7. Babson

W1. UW-Superior
W2. UW-Stout
W3. St. Scholastica
W4. Gustavus Adolphus

It looks like St. Norbert was 4.3 seconds away from being about to defend its title. If Hobart beats Neumann, the Green Knights are in and the just plain Knights are out.

The East gets all three play-in games, which I said I didn’t think would happen, but, since the West has had its #2 seed in a play-in for the past few years, I guess the precedent was clear.

Other than maybe switching Hobart and Elmira, I would have made these same picks myself, although I thought could have been 6-5. But I guess the east has three play-in games in exchange for another team in the tournament.

…and the NCAA selection committee is meeting as I write this final version of Bracketlology. We’ll be doing an analysis of the picks once they are announced, but for now the waiting game is on.

If you’re just joining us, we know the criteria used by the NCAA Division III Men’s Committee to select and seed the teams, but not the weighting used in their evaluation. You can see what an equal weighting would look like using USCHO East, West and combined Pairwise Comparisons.

Each of the past three Tuesdays, the NCAA has produced rankings based on the process it will use to select the Division III field.

There are 11 teams invited: 6 Pool A teams, 1 Pool B Team, and 4 Pool C teams. Pool A consists of the six teams that will win playoff championships in leagues with an automatic qualifier: ECAC East, ECAC Northeast, NCHA, NESCAC, MIAC, and SUNYAC. A Pool B slot is reserved for an independent team or team from a conference that does not have an AQ: ECAC West and MCHA. Pool C bids will be handed out to the highest remaining teams according to the NCAA rankings.

So after an exciting weekend of championship games, here’s where we stand:

Pool A: UW-Stout, Gustavus Adolphus, Plattsburgh, Amherst, Babson, Nichols.

Pool B: Neumann spoiled Hobart’s party by winning the ECAC West title with 4.3 seconds to play last night. Hobart was ahead of Neumann and Elmira in the last NCAA rankings, and would have locked up Pool B with a win. Now, it’s anybody’s guess. If you go straight by the numbers, it’s Elmira by a nose over Hobart and handily of Neumann. While the ECAC West has never had an AQ, the champ has never been left home, provided it was a D-III team. This could get interesting.

Pool C: Here’s who has a realistic chance: Elmira, Hobart, Neumann, UW-Superior, St. Scholastica, St. Norbert, Middlebury. Superior is in for sure. St. Scholastica gets in unless the West gets only three teams. Middlebury was picked higher than Elmira and Neumann in the last NCAA ranking, and went 1-1 since then while Elmira was idle and Neumann won its game. If you go by the criteria straight up, Hobart and Elmira beat Middlebury and Middlebury tops Neumann.

Now, the big question, which will help determine the Pool C teams: Will we have a 6-5, 7-4, or 8-3 split? Here are the ramifications of each:

6-5: St. Nobert gets in, and two of the following teams: Middlebury Elmira, Neumann, Hobart. Two quarterfinals each in the East and West guarantee two Western teams in the Frozen Four.

7-4: The only way this works is to fly teams in the first and quarterfinal round, or have all three play-in games in the East, making six of the seven East teams (i.e, everyone but Plattsburgh) play a first round game and giving four West teams a pass to the quarterfinals. In the first scenario, St. Scholastica gets in as well as three of the four: Middlebury, Hobart, Elmira, Neumann.

8-3: This leaves St. Scholastica out, and puts Middlebury and all three ECAC West teams in.

So…

A 7-4 split would make the most sense if you were truly picking by top at-large teams. But I don’t see making the #2 East team play-in (although they’ve been doing to to the West for years). I’m also thinking they’re not flying teams in every round. 8-3 would be an injustice.

That leaves 6-5. St. Norbert matches up almost even with Elmira and ahead of Neumann and Middlebury, and loses in the criteria to Hobart. If SNC gets in I think they take Hobart too and leave Elmira, Middlebury and Neumann at home. Hobart was ahead of Elmira in the final rankings, so it comes down to how much the loss last night hurts them.

I miss the old days when this process was more transparent. We’ve been back to the smoke-filled room for the past two seasons, which means the outcome is anyone’s guess. We’ll know in a few hours.

The Crystal Ball got as little clearer thanks to last week’s results. The ECAC East was, ahem, interesting, with three of the top four seeds going down. That means someone other than Norwich (that would be New England College) will host the semifinals and final for the first time ever. The ECAC West also saw the top two seeds go under, as well regular season champ St. Olaf in the MIAC.

To reset, we know the criteria used by the NCAA Division III Men’s Committee to select and seed the teams, but not the weighting used in their evaluation. You can see what an equal weighting would look like using USCHO East, West and combined Pairwise Comparisons.

Each of the past three Tuesdays, the NCAA has produced rankings based on the process it will use to select the Division III field.

There are 11 teams invited: 6 Pool A teams, 1 Pool B Team, and 4 Pool C teams. Pool A consists of the six teams that will win playoff championships in leagues with an automatic qualifier: ECAC East, ECAC Northeast, NCHA, NESCAC, MIAC, and SUNYAC. A Pool B slot is reserved for an independent team or team from a conference that does not have an AQ: ECAC West and MCHA. Pool C bids will be handed out to the highest remaining teams according to the NCAA rankings.

Here’s my guess as to where the teams still in the running stand:

A lock: Plattsburgh, UW-Superior – These teams can at most lose one more game, and are comfortably ahead in the key criteria. They’re in no matter what happens from here on out.

Bet On It: UW-Stout, Amherst, Hobart – Hobart was elevated for its win over Manhattanville and Elmira smacked down for its loss to Neumann, more so that I thought it would. I thought based on the criteria that Elmira had Pool B wrapped up, but it now looks (based on the NCAA rankings) that Hobart will claim Pool B if it wins the ECAC West title on Saturday over Neumann. I think that Stout and Amherst can each survive a loss and still get a Pool C bid. They can both of course win their way in.

Good Chance: St. Scholastica, Middlebury, Elmira – CSS should be in, unless there’s an 8-3 split. Middlebury can win its way in, otherwise it has to hope that Amherst, Plattsburgh and Hobart all win. Could Elmira and Hobart flip-flop for Pool B if Hobart loses? It would be close.

On the Bubble: Neumann, St. Norbert, Manhattanville – It’s anyone’s guess (except the committee’s ) how high Neumann would jump with a win at Hobart. St. Norbert would get the nod in the event of a 6-5 split. Manhattanville has a remote chance should the top seeds win and there’s an 8-3 split.

On the Outside: Wait till next year: Norwich, St. Olaf.

Must Win Their AQ: Oswego, Williams, Trinity, New England, Nichols, Curry, Wentworth, Nichols, Fitchburg State, UMass-Boston, Babson, Skidmore, Hamline, Gustavus Adolphus.

OK, so let’s take a shot at a possible bracket, assuming the team in first wins its respective league:
ECAC East: New England
ECAC Northeast: Nichols
MIAC: Gustavus Adolphus
NCHA: UW-Superior
NESCAC: Amherst
SUNYAC: Plattsburgh

Right now, Hobart gets pool B. Who gets the four Pool C bids? Right now the pool consists of: St. Scholastica, UW-Stout, Middlebury, Elmira, St. Norbert, Manhattanville. Things get really interesting if Neumann beats Hobart. They could jump into the mix. If Oswego doesn’t win the SUNYAC, I think the loss drops the Lakers out of Pool C contention.

Now, the big question, which will help determine the Pool C teams: Will we have a 6-5 split with two play-in games in the East and one in the West, or a 7-4 split and give only the top East seed a bye (all play-in games in the East). You could also do a 7-4 split and fly a team in the first and second rounds. This would probably be fairer, but who thinks the NCAA will do that? On the other hand, is it fair to give St. Norbert a spot in the quarterfinals but make Amherst or whoever is the #2 eastern seed play-in? people out West are nodding their heads – they’ve been doing that for the past few seasons.

An 8-3 split would leave either UW-Stout or St. Scholastica out in favor of Manhattanville. The Valiants lose in all criteria to CSS, but stack up more favorably with UW-Stout in the criteria, so I suppose a loss by the Blue Devils could open the door.

If it’s 6-5:

First Round (March 11)
Gustavus at St. Norbert
New England at Hobart
Nichols at Middlebury

Quarterfinals (March 14):
St. Olaf/St. Norbert at UW-Superior
St. Scholastica at UW-Stout
Nichols/Middlebury at Plattsburgh
New England/Hobart at Amherst

If it’s 7-4 with a play-in game in the West:

First Round (March 11)
Gustavus Adolphus at Hobart
Nichols at Elmira
New England at Middlebury

Quarterfinals (March 14):
Gustavus/Hobart at Plattsburgh
Nichols/Elmira at UW-Stout
New England/Middlebury at Amherst
UW-Stout at UW-Superior

If it’s 7-4 without a play-in game in the West:

First Round (March 11):
New England at Amherst
Nichols at Hobart
Elmira at Middlebury

Quarterfinals (March 14):
Elmira/Middlebury at Plattsburgh
Nichols/Hobart at New England/Amherst
St. Norbert at UW-Superior
St. Scholastica at UW-Stout

And, just because you never know:

8-3 Split:

First Round (March 11)
Gustavus at UW-Stout
Nichols at Elmira
New England at Manhattanville

Quarterfinals (March 14):
New England.Manhattanville at Plattsburgh
Gustavus/UW-Stout at UW-Superior
Nichols/Elmira at Amherst
Middlebury at Hobart

We’ll be doing one more of these after the playoffs have ended and before the NCAA makes its picks.

It’s that most wonderful time of the year again. The end of the regular season and the conference tournament scramble to qualify for the Big Dance. It’s time to play Bracketology.

As was the case last year, we know the criteria used by the NCAA Division III Men’s Committee to select and seed the teams, but not the weighting used in their evaluation. You can see what an equal weighting would look like using USCHO East, West and combined Pairwise Comparisons.

Starting last week, the NCAA has produced rankings based on the process it will use to select the Division III field. Using those rankings, let’s look at each eligible team’s chances of making the tournament.

The good news is that starting this season, there are now 11 teams invited: 6 Pool A teams, 1 Pool B Team, and 4 Pool C teams. Pool A consists of the six teams that will win playoff championships in leagues with an automatic qualifier: ECAC East, ECAC Northeast, NCHA, NESCAC, MIAC, and SUNYAC. A Pool B slot is reserved for an independent team or team from a conference that does not have an AQ: ECAC West and MCHA. Pool C bids will be handed out to the highest remaining teams according to the NCAA rankings.

The rub here is that there are East and West rankings, but not a combined one. So when the rubber hits the road, the committee will be combining the separate rankings on selection Sunday.

Here’s my guess as to where the teams still in the running stand:

A lock: Plattsburgh, UW-Superior. These teams can at most lose one more game, and are comfortably ahead in the key criteria. They’re in no matter what happens from here on out. They can also claim autobids if they win their respective conference tournaments. Elmira has the Pool B bid locked up.

Bet On It: St. Scholastica, Elmira. These teams fare well in most head-to-head matchups with other contenders. Elmira will win Pool B if it can claim the ECAC West, since it will have to go through the other Pool B conteners to do so. A loss by either St. Scholastica or Elmira still won’t be enough to push them out of an at-large berth.

Good Chance: Manhattanville, UW-Stout, Amherst, Hobart, Middlebury, St. Norbert – Amherst is ranked 2nd in the East by the NCAA, which makes me think the committee is looking at winning percentage and especially opponet’s winning percentage vs. common opponents and record against ranked teams.

On the Bubble: Norwich, Neumann- One of these teams might get in if they can win a another game or two and there aren’t upsets where a lower-ranked team can grab an AQ. Norwich can win its way in. Neumann I think should be ranked higher since it seems to win or tie pairwise matchups with the teams ahead of it: Norwich, Castleton and Oswego.

On the Outside: I just can’t see how these teams can get in via the at-large route. Castleton, Oswego, St. Olaf – Oswego wins the PRC matchups between the three teams.

Must Win Their AQ: Brockport, Geneseo, Augsburg, Hamline, Hamilton, Conn. College, Bowdoin, Tufts, Babson, Skidmore, Salem State, Mass-Boston, S. Maine, New England, St. Thomas, Gustavus Adolphus, Westfield State, Johnson & Wales, Fitchburg State, Mass-Dartmouth, Becker, Wentworth, Curry, Nichols. This list will be significantly shorter come Sunday.

Playing Out the String: Utica, Adrian, Marian, Lawrence, MSOE. These teams are from conferences that don’t have an AQ, so even if they win their league championship, it won’t raise them high enough in the criteria to get an at-large bid. Adrian, which isn’t even ranked in the West, is done in by its schedule, of which it has little control.

OK, so let’s take a shot at a possible bracket, assuming the team in first wins its respective league:
ECAC East: Norwich
ECAC Northeast: Nichols
MIAC: St. Olaf
NCHA: UW-Superior
NESCAC: Amherst
SUNYAC: Plattsburgh

Right now, Elmira gets pool B. Who gets the four Pool C bids? Right now I think it would comes down to these six: St. Scholastica, UW-Stout, Manhattanville, St. Norbert, Hobart, Middlebury.

Now, the big question, which will help determine the Pool C teams: Will we have a 6-5 split with two play-in games in the East and one in the West, or a 7-4 split and fly a team in the first and possibly the second round. I really can’t see an 8-3 split – it would be an injustice to leave either UW-Stout or St. Scholastica out.

If it’s 6-5:

First Round (March 11)
St. Olaf at St. Norbert
Nichols at Elmira
Norwich at Manhattanville

Quarterfinals (March 14):
St. Olaf/St. Norbert at UW-Superior
UW-Stout at St. Scholastica
Nichols/Elmira at Plattsburgh
Norwich/Manhattanville at Amherst

If it’s 7-4:

First Round (March 11)
St. Olaf at Elmira
Nichols at Manhattanville
Norwich at Middlebury

Quarterfinals (March 14):
Norwich/Middlebury at Plattsburgh
St. Olaf/Elmira at UW-Superior
Nichols/Manhattanville at Amherst
UW-Stout at St. Scholastica,

And, just because you never know:

8-3 Split:

First Round (March 11)
Nichols at Manattanville
Norwich at Hobart
St. Olaf at St. Scholastica

Quarterfinals (March 14):
Norwich/Hobart at Plattsburgh
St. Olaf/St. Scholastica at UW-Superior
Nichols/Manhattanville at Amherst
Middlebury at Elmira

The picture will become clearer next week as the playoffs continue. Check back for updates.

The NCAA revealed its first public edition of its Regional Rankings today. These will be issued every Tuesday leading up to the announcement of the NCAA field on March 8.

The criteria used to rank the teams are:
• Win-loss percentage against regional opponents;
• Strength-of-schedule (only contests versus regional competition) to include:

Opponents’ Average Winning Percentage (OWP) and
Opponents’ Opponents’ Average Winning Percentage (OOWP).

• In-region head-to-head competition;
• In-region results versus common regional opponents; and
• In-region results versus regionally ranked teams.

USCHO.com has its own Pairwise Rankings for the East and West Regions, which attempt to apply these criteria equally, since we don’t know what weight the NCAA is using for each. That would account for the discrepancies between our rankings and the NCAA rankings.

Here are the teams in order as ranked by the NCAA, with the teams’ ranking by winning percentage in parenthesis.
East:
1. Plattsburgh (1)
2. Elmira (6)
3. Amherst (7)
4. Hobart (4)
5. Middlebury (11)
6. Manhattanville (3)
7. Oswego (5)
8. Trinity (9)
9. Norwich (22)
10. Conn College (12)
11. Williams (13)
12. Castleton (16)
13. Neumann (19)
14. Curry (8)
15. Nichols (2)

West:
1. UW-Superior (2)
2. St. Scholastica (3)
3. UW-Stout (4)
4. St. Norbert (5)
5. St. Olaf (6)
6. Gustavus Adolphus (9)
7. St. Thomas (8)

OhhhhhhKayyyy. Check out the West Rankings. No Adrian at all, which the has a winning percentage ranking of #1. We are weighting all criteria evenly, so it looks like the NCAA selection committee is putting a very high weight on strength of schedule, and punishing teams from the ECAC Northeast and MCHA. Look at Nichols and Curry in the East.

I’ll be back shortly with the first edition of D-III Bracketology, and I’ll be using the NCAA rankings, since those are the ones that matter. Until then, let the arguing begin.

It seems like I just took my Christmas tree down and yet there’s only a few weeks left in the regular season. The NCHA and MCHA regular seasons conclude next weekend, with the rest of the leagues following shortly after. We’ll crown a national champion 40 days from today.

Here’s a breakdown of where we are headed into the final weeks:

ECAC East: Each team has four games left, and seven squads still have a mathematical chance of finishing first, although I expect Norwich to take the regular season title. Only Mass-Boston is eliminated from home ice at this point.

ECAC West: Hobart scored a big 3-2 win at Elmira last Saturday moving the Statesmen into a tie with the Soaring Eagles for first place. With each team having four games left, the five playoff teams have been determined, with winless Lebanon Valley out of the running. My prediction is that Elmira, which has an easier schedule down the stretch, will finish first.

ECAC Northeast: The Feb. 18 game between Mass-Dartmouth and Nichols may decide the regular season championship. The Bison lead the Corsairs by three points with each team having four games left, including the match with each other. Salve Regina and Framingham State have been eliminated from playoff contention. Newcomer Westfield State is currently tied for the fourth and final home ice spot.

MIAC: With two weekends left in the regular season, eight of the nine MIAC teams are still alive for one of five playoff spots. A huge weekend series looms as first place St. Olaf squares off with second-place St. Thomas. The Oles lead the Tommies by four points.

MCHA: With two games to go, Adrian has locked up the regular season title, and Lawrence has clinched a home ice playoff game. Concordia (WI), Minn-Crookston and Northland will be on the road for the playoffs, leaving Marian, MSOE and Finlandia to battle for the final two home ice spots.

NCHA: UW-Superior clinched the regular season title on Saturday and will host lame-duck Lake Forest in the first round. UW-Stout, St. Scholastica and St. Norbert have all sewn up home ice in the first round.

NESCAC: With four games left in the regular season, Amherst and Middlebury are tied for first, and play each other on Feb 20. in a game that could decide the regular season title. Both teams have locked up at least a home-ice quarterfinal game. Williams, Trinity and Conn. College are battling for the final two home ice positions. Hamilton and Bowdoin are out of the running for home ice, but have clinched a spot in the NESCAC tournament. Tufts, Colby and Wesleyan are fighting for the final playoff spot.

SUNYAC: Plattsburgh has the inside track on the regular season title, and Oswego is also looking good for a first round bye. Morrisville has been eliminated from playoff contention, leaving Brockport, Cortland, Potsdam, Geneseo, Buffalo State and Fredonia still alive for the final four playoff spots.

Check back next week for an update, as well as some early NCAA predictions.

Voters are going to have an interesting choice to make today when they set about picking the Number One Division III team in the nation. Plattsburgh, which has been on top of the poll for the past six weeks, lost to Skimore in its only action last week. Number Two UW-Superior also lost its only contest. There are at least four and possibly more teams that one could make a case for as Number One, and you can as easily make a case against each.

- Plattsburgh (12-1-2) – Lost its first game of the season. Shouldn’t the Cards move down?
- UW-Superior (15-2-1) – Was beaten by five goals by St. Scholastica. How can the Jackets be Number One?
- St. Norbert (14-4) – Won its only game but has four losses.
- St. Scholastica (14-3-1) – Beat Superior handily but has lost to St. Norbert.
- Middlebury (10-2-1) – Might get some votes, but I don’t think they can jump over four teams.
- Elmira (11-4) – Four losses, and see Middlebury, except make that five teams.
- UW-Stout (12-5) – Won both games last week, but five losses.
- Adrian (15-1-1) – SOS. Sorry.
- Manhattanville (10-2-2) – A couple of good wins but a weaker SOS than most teams ahead of them.
- Curry (11-3-1) – Beat Middlebury, but not a strong SOS.
- Oswego, Hobart, Hamline, Point, Norwich, NEC – At least four losses.

It’s going to be interesting. I’m kind of pulling for CSS. They’ve never been at the top of the USCHO.com poll.

It’s the New Years portion of the Holiday Tournament season, with several intriguing matchups in store:

Salem State Ice Hockey Classic (Salem, Mass.)
When: December 27 & 28
Who: Salem State (host), Salve Regina, Penn State, Bowdoin
Outlook: Club powerhouse Penn State will take on the host Vikings in the first round. Bowdoin won this tournament last year with a win over Salem State in the finals, and I expect the same result this time.

Codfish Bowl (Boston, Mass.)
When: December 29 & 30
Who: Mass-Boston (host), Fitchburg State, Westfield State, Suffolk
Outlook: The 44th annual version of the Codfish features new kids on the block Westfield State (which is off to an impressive 7-2-1 start) against the host Beacons in the semifinals. I think the winner of that game takes the tourney.

Assumption Holiday Classic (Worcester, Mass.)
When: December 29 & 30
Who: Assumption (host), Becker, Trinity, Johnson & Wales
Outlook: Trinity is the team to beat in this one, probably over J&W in the finals.

St. Michael’s Invitational (Burlington, Vt.)
When: January 2 & 3
Who: St. Michael’s (host), Nichols, Amherst, Fitchburg State
Outlook: Fitchburg State plays its second Holiday Tournament in as many weekends, but I think Amherst beats the Falcons in the semifinals and goes on to win the tournament.

Pathfinder Bank Oswego Classic (Oswego, N.Y.)
When: December January 2 & 3
Who: Oswego (host), Augsburg, Babson, Skidmore
Outlook: Not as strong a field as in the first two years of this tournament, but still a good one. I like an Oswego-Babson final with the Lakers getting the win.

Cardinal Classic (Plattsburgh, N.Y.)
When: January 2 & 3
Who: Plattsburgh (host), Wesleyan, Castleton, Williams
Outlook:  There are two sets of Cardinals in this one, and they square off in the semifinals. I think the Plattsburgh Cards beat the Wesleyan Cards, and then defeat Williams in the finals.

Times-Argus Invitational (Northfield, Vt.)
When: January 2 & 3
Who: Norwich (host), Gutavus Adolphus, Elmira, Neumann
Outlook: This one has the strongest field of any of the holiday tourneys, with all four teams getting a mention is the latest USCHO.com Division III poll. I think the winner of the Neumann-Norwich semi will probably take the title, but I think all four games will be close.

Middlebury Holiday Classic (Middlebury, Vt.)
When: January 3 & 4
Who: Middlebury (host), Curry, New England, St. Anselm
Outlook: A much stronger field than last year should make this year a challenge for the Panthers. I’m picking Middlebury-NEC final with the hosts coming out on top.

Check out the action if you can, and have a Happy New Year!