As tonight’s Beanpot championship approaches, I figured that Monday would be a good day to take a look at the top Hobey Baker candidates in Hockey East and see how their performances this season measure up when I apply the Campbellnomics system and find out who’s coming up biggest at crunch time.

Campbellnomics, as you may recall from Sunday’s blog post, was developed by Ken Campbell of the Hockey News, and it focuses on the most meaningful goals of a game by awarding points only on seven types of goals: the first goal of the game, a goal that produces a lead, a goal that ties the game, a goal that produces the last lead, a goal that leads to a comeback, an overtime goal, and a shootout goal. The system also favors goal-scorers by awarding a full point for a goal in each of those situations, and half a point for an assist. One goal can count in multiple categories, so, for example, the scorer of a game-winning goal in a 1-0 win would receive four points: one for the first goal of the game, one for the lead, one for the last lead, and one for overtime. Meanwhile, a player who assisted on that goal would receive two points.

Ken keeps a running total throughout the season, and uses point totals rather than averages, since most NHL players play all 82 games. Because we’re dealing with college hockey, and different teams play different numbers of games, whether it’s because of tournament or travel exemptions or Ivy League restrictions, I’m using a per-game average. For frame of reference, the Campbellnomics leader as of last Tuesday, Sidney Crosby, was averaging approximately 1.18 CPPG (Campbellnomics Points Per Game). Also, while the CCHA does use a shootout, along with some holiday tournaments, I am not counting shootout goals, as they aren’t widespread enough in college hockey to make for a fair comparison.

Yesterday, I looked at the top five Hobey Baker candidates from Atlantic Hockey and the CHA, finding that Air Force’s Jacques Lamoureux led the the group with .80 CPPG, ahead of Bemidji State’s Matt Read (.73), Sacred Heart’s Nick Johnson (.73) and Canisius’ Cory Conacher (.71) Today, I’m turning my attention to Hockey East, and will be looking at five forwards: Maine sophomore Gustav Nyquist, UMass junior James Marcou, UMass sophomore Casey Wellman, New Hampshire senior Bobby Butler, and Boston College junior Brian Gibbons (later in the week, when I evaluate defensemen, I’ll be looking at UNH’s Blake Kessel, UMass-Lowell’s Nick Schaus and BU’s Kevin Shattenkirk or Colby Cohen…I still haven’t decided which).

Gustav Nyquist has been a key to Maine’s resurgence this season, which has the Black Bears contending for the Hockey East lead after a weekend sweep of UNH, not to mention a return to the NCAA tournament after a two-year absence. The Swedish sophomore is currently second overall in the nation in points per game with 14 goals and 26 assists in 26 games, an average of 1.54 points per game. He’s also only been held off the scoresheet in four contests this year. After looking at the game situations in which he scored, though, Nyquist comes up with a total of 18 Campbellnomics points, an average of .69 CPPG.

UMass has one of the most dynamic one-two punches in the nation in the tandem of junior James Marcou and sophomore Casey Wellman. Marcou, with his nine goals and 32 assists in 27 games, is No. 3 in the nation in scoring average at 1.52 points per game, while Wellman is 11th, his 19 goals and 16 assists averaging out to approximately 1.30 points per game. Under the Campbellnomics system, however, the roles are reversed. Because the system weights goals by awarding twice as much for them as for assists, Marcou’s total is 21 Campbellnomics points for a very respectable average of .78 CPPG, higher than any of the Atlantic and CHA players I evaluated on Sunday. Wellman, meanwhile, totaled 27.5 Campbellnomics points, averaging approximately 1.02 CPPG. Not only is Wellman scoring big for the Minutemen, but he’s scoring at big times, and Marcou is usually there with a helping hand.

New Hampshire’s Bobby Butler has been a Hockey East Player of the Month for the Wildcats, and has managed to keep up a high scoring pace following that honor. Overall, Butler’s 18 goals and 19 assists in 27 games give him an average of 1.37 PPG, good for seventh in the country. He also holds up nicely under the Campbellnomics system, totalling 24.5 Campbellnomics points for an average of .91 CPPG, No. 2 among all the players I’ve evaluated so far.

Finally, we turn to Brian Gibbons of Boston College, who made a nice impression at the Beanpot last week and will look to do the same tonight. Gibbons is ninth in the country in overall scoring, his 10 goals and 24 assists in 25 games averaging out to 1.36 points per game. Campbellnomics, however, is not kind to Gibbons, awarding him a total of 15.5 points, an average of .62 CPPG.

So, to recap:

Casey Wellman, So., F, UMass: 1.02 CPPG
Bobby Butler, Sr., F, UNH: .91 CPPG
James Marcou, Jr., F, UMass: .78 CPPG
Gustav Nyquist, So., F, Maine: .69 CPPG
Brian Gibbons, Jr., F, Boston College: .62 CPPG

Now, I’m certainly not saying that Casey Wellman is far and away a better canidate than Gustav Nyquist because of the cap in their scores. For one thing, I’m uncomfortable about not counting the goal that stretches a one-goal lead to a two-goal lead, particularly when a later score by the opposing team turns that goal into the game-winner. Also, Wellman has the benefit of playing with Marcou, a returning All-American, which Nyquist does not (this is not to discount the abilities of his teammates and linemates, but they don’t have Marcou’s credentials). This is just another element to look at as we compare these players and see who might be deserving of a spot as a Hobey Baker finalist when the selections are announced in a little more than a month.

And who knows? Maybe next season I’ll develop my own system. USCHOmetrics, anyone?

First of all, kudos to Wisconsin on a fantastic event Saturday at the Camp Randall Hockey Classic. I watched the game at a Buffalo Wild Wings (so I could watch the Rangers at the same time and have a good seat for UFC 109 as well), and it definitely turned some heads when people saw what was going on.

Sure, there was a little bit of an issue with the ice at one end, but to me, it was more than offset by cool stuff like Scott Gudmanson’s toque, the “IT’S A GREAT DAY FOR HOCKEY” sign on the boards in front of the benches, and of course, Adam Burish helping out on analysis between periods. I spent a fair bit of time talking with Adam during the 2005-06 season hope he heals soon and can continue his career with the Blackhawks, but he’ll be on TV for a long time when he’s done playing.

Anyway, in addition to watching for the event, I also had my eye on Wisconsin’s big stars and Hobey candidates: Brendan Smith, Derek Stepan, Michael Davies and Blake Geoffrion, and for once, I got to see something big from a Hobey contender in a game I was watching, as Smith scored the game-tying and game-winning goals in the third period in a huge comeback for the Badgers (and a heartbreaker for the Wolverines, who really could have used that win for their NCAA tournament chances).

As Smith scored his first goal, I said, “That’s a huge goal for him,” referring to his case as a potential Hobey winner. When he scored his second, I said, “Oh, just give it to him already.” Now, while I may have been a bit premature with that second statement, he’s having a Hobey-caliber season (his 1.27 PPG from the blueline is in the ballpark with Matt Carle’s 1.36 in 2005-06), and scoring two huge goals on a bigtime stage is the kind of performance that definitely gets a player closer to the Hobey.

But it got me thinking about the Hobey race and how best to account for when players put up their points, so I decided to take a closer look.

I’m going to borrow a system from Ken Campbell of the Hockey News, who posts his “Campbellnomics” columns on their website (according to his latest, the system is much kinder than the overall NHL scoring race to former collegians Zach Parise and Mike Cammalleri). Hey, lots of people think a guy named Ken’s system should determine the NCAA tournament teams, right?

The Campbellnomics system awards a point for on six types of goals: the first goal of a game, a goal that ties the game, a goal that produces a lead, the goal that produces the last lead, a goal that leads to a comeback, and an overtime goal. A goal can be counted more than once per category, so, for example, the player who scores the first goal of a shutout win would get three Campbellnomics points: one for the first goal, one for the lead, and one for the last lead. Assists on those goals count as well, but they only count for half a point per category, so the player who assisted on the aforementioned winning goal in a shootout would pick up 1.5 Campbellnomics points.

Now, it’s not an ideal system, from my point of view – I think a goal that stretches a one-goal lead into two or two into three is worthy of consideration – but it’s a pretty good way to go inside the numbers.

So, I’m going to take the Campbellnomics system and apply it to 30 skaters, five forwards from each of the “Big Four” conferences, five forwards from Atlantic Hockey and the CHA, and five defensemen. I’m not saying this is the be-all and end-all of who should be in the Hobey picture, but it’s something else to think about.

So, let’s get started with the Atlantic Hockey and CHA guys. There seems to be one spot a year reserved for a player from one of those conferences, and there are a number of worthy candidates for that spot this year, so it seemed like a natural to compare these guys first.

Canisius forward Cory Conacher has surged to the top of the national scoring chart this year, currently averaging 1.62 points per game on 18 goals and 24 assists in 26 games.  Based on when those points were registered, though, his 42 points translate to 18.5 Campbellnomics points, or .71 CPPG (Campbellnomics Points Per Game).

Air Force forward Jacques Lamoureux has fallen off a bit from his scoring pace of a season ago, when he was No. 2 in the nation in points per game with 1.29 PPG, and tops in goals with 33. On the overall scoring chart, Lamoureux’s 1.17 PPG is almost half a point per game behind Conacher’s pace. However, Campbellnomics gives him 24 points in 30 games this season, placing him ahead of Conacher with .80 CPPG.

Sacred Heart had a 12-game unbeaten streak snapped by RIT on Friday night, but the Pioneers won Saturday to give them an 11-1-2 record in their last 14 games, making them one of the hottest teams in college hockey. The driving forces behind Sacred Heart’s success have been senior forwards Nick Johnson and Dave Jarman, who are currently tied for fourth in the national scoring race, averaging 1.39 points on 39 points in 22 games. The Campbellnomics system, however, awards Johnson 20.5 points, while helper-happy Jarman comes up shorter with 16 points, giving Johnson and Jarman averages of  .73 CPPG and .57 CPPG, respectively.

Finally, we’ll jump over to the CHA and take a look at Bemidji State forward Matt Read, who’s been the conference’s top player from the drop of the first puck this season. Now, Read’s Hobey Buzz has fallen off since the early going, but he’s still one of the nation’s top 20 scorers – 19th, to be exact – with 14 goals and 18 assists in 26 games, an average of 1.23 points per game. Meanwhile, Campbellnomics awards him 19 points, an average of  .73 CPPG.

So, just to recap:

Jacques Lamoureux, Air Force: .80 CPPG
Matt Read, Bemidji State: .73 CPPG
Nick Johnson, Sacred Heart, .73 CPPG
Cory Conacher, Canisius, .71 CPPG
Dave Jarman, Sacred Heart, .57 CPPG

So, does that mean to pencil in Lamoureux for a Hobey finalist spot? Not necessarily. What we need to remember here is that Read leads a team that is ranked No. 7 in the country, and is in contention for a top-four seed in the NCAA tournament. The same can not be said for Air Force, which needs to win Atlantic Hockey to make the NCAA tournament. That’s a big difference maker.

Of course, Lamoureux also has the benefit of playing for a service academy, which ties in with the history of Hobey Baker, and a personal story and record of community work that bolster his case.

Could there be room for both? Possibly. But if there’s only one, my guess is that Read has the edge.

In any event, I think that Conacher is a candidate to go the way of Brian Leitch, Dave Borelli, and others who have posted big numbers but failed to receive Hobey recognition. But then again, he’s just a  junior, so there’s always next year.

But that’s just me. What do you think? You think Ken Campbell’s onto something?

Greetings from the Fenway Park press box, where I am among several USCHO writers on hand for the “Frozen Fenway” battle between Boston College and Boston University.  It was also where we just got a visit from the 2009 Hobey Baker winner, BU alum Matt Gilroy.

Gilroy, whose younger brother, Kevin, is a sophomore forward for the Terriers, is in town with the New York Rangers for a Saturday afternoon game against the Bruins at TD Banknorth Garden (or as I still call it, the KurtCenter), and was at Fenway along with Rangers teammate and BC alum Brian Boyle, who took his share of smack talk in the Rangers locker room this week from Gilroy and fellow BU Hobey winner Chris Drury.

“We were giving it to Boyle, me and Dru,” Gilroy said. “All in good fun.”

And while the 2009 Hobey Baker winner – only the fifth to win the Hobey and an NCAA title in the same season – certainly authored a healthy share of memorable moments in his time as a Terrier, he couldn’t help but be a bit envious as a spectator Friday night.

“I wish it happened in my four years,” Gilroy said. “It was supposed to happen, everyone was talking about it, but it’s cool that it finally happened. I’m glad I’m in town for this, that I get to see this game, the rivalry, and that I get to see my brother play.”

And while both he and his brother are born-and-raised New Yorkers, the elder Gilroy wasn’t about to quarrel with the Terriers’ special jerseys, which went heavy on the Red Sox homages with special Red Sox-style lettering for “BOSTON” on the front, red numbers (with white outlines) on both sides, and a variation on the Sox logo (with skates) on the sleeves.

“Actually,” Gilroy said, “I think the jerseys look pretty cool. I’ll give it to them. BU did a good job with them. It’s cool to see it out there, and I can’t believe Fenway Park is a hockey rink in the middle of the winter.”

Normally this season, when I go to see a Hobey Baker candidate, he’s held off the scoresheet, but his team wins. This weekend, I got the opposite.

Jacques Lamoureux’s candidacy for the Hobey Baker Award last season was one of the bigger stories of the year in the Hobey race (next to, of course, the winner, Matt Gilroy, who became only the fifth player to win the Hobey and an NCAA title in the same season). With his Air Force Falcons in my general vicinity for an Atlantic Hockey series against Sacred Heart last weekend, I braved the I-95 traffic (compounded by weather), and headed for the Milford Ice Pavilion on Sunday night.

Lamoureux was credited with an assist in a 5-1 Sacred Heart win, as the Pioneers completed a weekend sweep of the the Falcons, who still share the Atlantic Hockey lead with Mercyhurst (although RIT is just one point behind despite having played four fewer games). Overall, points have been harder to come by this season for the Air Force junior, who currently sits 33rd in the nation in points per game with 1.20 PPG on 11 goals and 13 assists. Those are respectable numbers, but hardly the torrid pace of last season, when he scored 33 goals and handed out 20 assists.

“I think a lot of people know who I am this year,” Lamoureux said. “That doesn’t matter. I’ve just got to do the little things. I think, to this point, I’ve had a fair amount of success. I’m not on the pace I was last year, but I think last year was a special season, but that’s in the rearview mirror, and I’m just focused on this season.”

Still, Lamoureux sees where he can improve.

“I’ve been able to create a lot of chances each game, and I just haven’t been able to put them in like I did last year, but it’s just one of those things. I’m not unhappy with the way things are going, I’ve just got to keep working hard.

All of that said, Lamoureux is Atlantic Hockey’s player of the month for December, averaging a goal and an assist per game. Air Force has struggled offensively overall, so the Falcons will be looking to pick things up as a whole in 2010, and you can expect Lamoureux to be a part of that.”

The adjustment has generally been tough following Hobey finalist seasons, as it’s very rare  to make it back to the top 10 twice in a row. Ryan Duncan won the award as a sophomore, and never sniffed the top 10 again. 2005 winner Marty Sertich made it back to the top 10 as a senior in 2006, as did his classmate, linemate, and fellow ‘05 Hobey Hat Trick member Brett Sterling, but neither got back to the Hat Trick. Scott Parse at Nebraska-Omaha was also able to manage repeat finalist nods in 2006 and 2007, but it’s a very tall order, generally speaking.

Looking around at the other Player of the Month honorees for December, Hockey East has honored Gustav Nyquist of Maine. Nyquist notched nine points in five games last month on four goals and five assists, including two assists in Maine’s biggest win of the season, a win over No. 3 Colorado College at the Florida College Classic. Nyquist is the star of Maine’s comeback campaign in 2009-10, and should be a solid Hobey contender, as he sits second in the nation in points per game (1.58 PPG on 12 goals, 18 assists).

In the CCHA, the Player of the Month is Corey Tropp of Michigan State, whose seven goals and 10 points in the month led the nation.  The Spartans have also come back strong (though they sit in the shadow of Miami’s powerhouse campaign), and while Tropp may not have the numbers at No. 16 in the nation in scoring, he could get himself into the conversation as the season goes along.

But really, though, who knows what will happen? It’s a new month, a new year, and a new decade. All I know is, it’s about to get very exciting.

Happy Hockeydays, everybody!

If you follow this blog, you know I’m a big fan of the holiday tournaments as an opportunity for Hobey candidates to make their case. Not only is it non-conference competition (which gives candidates exposure to coaches in other conferences, who vote for the Hobey finalists), but it captures the finalists at mid-season form.

And, as it happens, there’s a particularly interesting group of games for this year’s Hobey contenders to take part in.

Wisconsin defenseman Brendan Smith is probably the leader in the Hobey race at this point. When you consider a defenseman who’s the No. 3 scorer in the country, playing for a top 10 team, and a plus on the score sheet, it’s hard to imagine a better candidate. Smith and the Badgers will take on another ranked opponent at the Badger showdown, either No. 9 Yale or No. 11 Ferris State, depending on the outcome of their game and the Badgers’ matchup with Merrimack.

Meanwhile, No. 4 Cornell’s dynamic duo of Blake Gallagher and Colin Greening have a big challenge in No. 3 Colorado College. The Tigers are a solid penalty-killing team, and will challenge the nation’s best power play, where Gallagher and Greening do the bulk of their damage.

Maine’s resurgence in Hockey East has been powered by Gustav Nyquist,  the nation’s No. 5 scorer (1.47 PPG), and Nyquist will get a shot at either the Big Red or the Tigers, depending on the result of their game and the Black Bears’ matchup with Princeton. I haven’t written a whole lot about Nyquist, but he’s been an impact player for Tim Whitehead since his arrival in Orono, and if the Black Bears reclaim their usual position as a top four team in Hockey East by season’s end, Nyquist will likely have a lot to do with it, and he’ll be rewarded as such. Meanwhile, coaches in ECAC Hockey (and possibly the WCHA) will get a good look at Nyquist when they watch the video from this game for scouting purposes.

As far as goaltenders go, Denver’s Marc Cheverie face No. 5 Boston College on Saturday in the Denver Cup. Last time the Eagles visited Magness Arena, in the 2005-06 season, they never saw the Pioneers, as the then-champs dropped their first-round game to Princeton, but this year, the matchups are predetermined, so regardless of what happens in the New Year’s Day games between Denver and Nebraska-Omaha and BC and St. Lawrence, the Eagles face the Pioneers, and Cheverie will get a look at the nation’s No. 5 offense.

Overall, it should be an interesting week in the Hobey race, and in college hockey as a whole.

Well, I gave it a try.

Sunday afternoon, with my beloved New York Jets having already conducted their business for the week, I sat down on the couch with a clipboard and three pens to watch ESPNU’s broadcast of New Hampshire and Vermont from Gutterson Field House.

After my blog post last week about how we look at goalies’ stats, I decided to use the game to test out a system of breaking down the numbers. For each goaltender who played in the game, I recorded their saves and goals allowed based on the score of the game at the time.

Now, I didn’t do a perfect job on this. I noticed at the first intermission that my shot totals didn’t match ESPNU’s, probably because I thought one or two more shots were broken up in front. That said, this is just an experiement, and I’ll ask that you bear with me.

By my count, UNH goaltender Brian Foster saved four of five shots he faced with the score tied (including two of three power-play shots), all five shots he faced when the Wildcats were down one goal (including two shorthanded shots), all five shots he faced when the Wildcats led by one, and 11 of 12 shots he faced when the Wildcats led by two or more goals (including two of three power-play shots).

UVM’s Mike Spillane, meanwhile, saved three of four shots he faced with a tie score, three of four while the Catamounts trailed by one, three of four while the Catamounts led by one (including two power-play saves), and allowed a goal on the only shot he faced when the Catamounts trailed by two goals. He was replaced by Rob Madore, who stopped 11 of the 12 shots he faced (including six power-play saves), all of which came with Vermont down by two or more goals.

What can you take from that?

Well, over one game, you can’t really take too much from the numbers, but if I were to zero in on anything, I would take the fact that Foster stopped 14 of the 15 shots he faced while the teams were within one goal of one another, while Spillane stopped nine of 12. That’s a pretty big difference (and I think I may have shorted Foster a couple of saves). Actually, if I were going to create a “designer stat” (think OPS in baseball), I’d look at save percentage when the goal differential when the teams are within a goal of one another.

I don’t think I’d need the next goaltender to win the Hobey to match Ryan Miller’s .950 save percentage, but I think I’d want to see a .950 save percentage with a goal differential of 1 or 0. Just something to think about going forward.

Next, November is in the books, which means we have a new crop of Player of the Month winners to look at.

In Hockey East, it’s Bobby Butler of New Hampshire, who averaged 1.86 points per game as the Wildcats went 3-2-2. Butler really didn’t jump out at me when I watched him on Sunday, but the numbers don’t lie. As a goal-scorer and a senior, he certainly has the right profile. It’s just a question of how his pace keeps up as the season goes along.

In the CCHA, it’s Blair Riley of Ferris State who had 10 points (8g, 2a) while the Bulldogs went 4-0-2. I like Riley as a darkhorse for a finalist spot, especially if FSU can make a run in the CCHA and grab an NCAA tournament berth. I don’t think he’s a likely candidate to win the award, but again, he’s a goal-scorer (13g in 16 games), he’s a senior, and he’s helping the Bulldogs battle with the big boys of the CCHA (note those two goals he had against Miami). Again, if he and the Bulldogs hang around, keep an eye on Riley.

Atlantic Hockey’s Player of the Month is Canisius’ Cory Conacher, who had 13 points in 9 games as the Golden Griffins went 5-3-1. Conacher may be the most interesting player here, since he now has the No. 3 scoring average in the nation, and more goals than either of the players ahead of him (UMass’ James Marcou and Wisconsin’s Brendan Smith…more on him in a second). He’s coming off of a 35-point season, but his 12 goals tie his career high. The thing that could make it tough for Conacher is team success. Right now, the Griffs are fourth in Atlantic Hockey, and well behind RIT and Air Force. I think the conference semifinals might be a must for the Griffins if Conacher is to get noticed, especially with other potential Hobey finalists out there like Bemidji State’s Matt Read in the CHA and Air Force’s Jacques Lamoureux competing against Conacher in Atlantic Hockey.  Could there be more than one finalist out of the smaller conferences? Maybe.

Now, last I checked, ECAC Hockey, the WCHA and the CHA don’t name players of the month, but I think it’s pretty obvious in the case of ECAC Hockey (Blake Gallagher or Colin Greening, take your pick). In the WCHA, I think Brendan Smith of Wisconsin has thrown himself into the Hobey conversation with authority. Anytime a defenseman is No. 2 in the country is scoring, you have to pay attention, and that is the case with Mr, Smith. His point-per-game average in November has put him in position, and he followed that up with a huge seven-point series against Michigan Tech last weekend. Overall, Smith has 15 points in his last seven games, which means I will have my eye on him this weekend when the Badgers take on North Dakota (thank you, NHL Network).

In the CHA, Matt Read continues to make it clear he’s in a class by himself. Not to say there aren’t other great players in the conference, but Read is the leading reason the Beavers are No. 4 in the country.

As we get deeper into the season, the Hobey picture is starting to take shape, and with guys like Smith, Gallgher, Greening, and Read in the mix – to say nothing of James Marcou, Brandon Wong, Eric Lampe, Jack Connolly, Marc Cheverie and we could go on and one – that shape is definitely an interesting one. Stay tuned.

Topics included in this blog post include Cornell, goaltending, and the Hobey Baker Award.

But we won’t be discussing Cornell goaltending.

Now there’s a surprise.

This isn’t a knock on Ben Scrivens – who’s been very solid this season with a .925 save percentage and a 2.10 goals-against average – but rather, a return to our previous discussion of Denver’s Marc Cheverie.

Cheverie’s star fell a bit last weekend with a loss to St. Cloud on Saturday and a fall from “Ryan Miller Land,” but it’s a moment in Friday’s win over the Huskies (which I watched on the NHL Network) that got me thinking.

Cheverie allowed a couple of goals that he’d want back against St. Cloud, and the Pioneers allowed the Huskies to pull back from a 4-1 deficit to make it 4-3 at the second intermission.

Then, late in the 13th minute of the third period, the Huskies got a couple of tough shots on goal during a flurry of activity in front of the Pioneer net. However, Cheverie made the saves he needed to make, leading to a rush the other way for the Pioneers and a Matt Donovan goal to restore the two-goal lead.

Cheverie finished the night with 24 saves on 27 shots, which looks pretty pedestrian on paper, but it was enough for him to be named Player of the Game on the Fox Sports Rocky Mountain broadcast. Why? Because the saves he made on that St. Cloud flurry in the third period were the turning point of the game, allowing Donovan to go the other way and score, effectively finishing off St. Cloud.

We can look at skaters’ statistics pretty easily, not just in terms of goals and assists, but futher breakdowns like game-winning goals, shorthanded goals, etc. We can even go deeper into the numbers and find “designer statistics” like goals when a player’s team is tied or losing. However, we don’t really do the same thing with goalies, which suggests that maybe, just maybe, the Ryan Miller standard isn’t fair. This, naturally, will not endear me to those Notre Dame fans who were very unhappy with me when I doubted the Hobey candidacy of David Brown two years ago, based largely on his numbers. To them, I say that we learn things as we get older.

Should the Hobey chances for a goalie like Marc Cheverie be based more on the saves he makes, or when he makes them? It’s worth thinking about.

Now, on to Cornell, a team I had the opportunity to see on Saturday night at the Red Hot Hockey Classic at Madison Square Garden. It was a great event once again – I don’t think the Rangers will have MSG that hot during the regular season – and it gave me a chance to take a look at Cornell’s high-scoring duo of Blake Gallagher and Colin Greening.

Gallagher and Greening are two of the nation’s top-five scorers in terms of points per game, with Greening mostly getting his points on assists. They both have themselves in the Hobey finalist mix, but in terms of candidates for the award itself, Gallagher seems the more attractive candidate at present.

Gallagher is the surprise of the season so far, as his nine goals in nine games are more goals than he had over the entire 2008-09 season, not to mention as many as he scored in his first two seasons combined. With 15 points in nine games, he’s No. 2 in the nation in points per game, second only to James Marcou of UMass, who’s getting it done largely with assists (and as we all know, “Hobey likes goals”).

Gallagher got his ninth against the Terriers, a power-play goal (more on that in a second), and I asked Mike Schafer about the last time one of his forwards had this kind of a hot hand. Said Schafer, “It’s been a while. Matt Moulson, who’s with the Islanders, is probably the last guy at Cornell who’s been on this kind of run at Cornell. Blake is just finding open spots, and guys are getting pucks to him. So, he continues to stay hot, and I hope he sustains it for the rest of the year.”

Now, as for Moulson, the longest goal-a-game average stretch I could find was six games, at the beginning of his senior year, and given that Moulson is probably the highest-profile Cornell alum in the NHL right now (by virtue of playing on a line with John Tavares), I think that makes it clear the kind of rarified air the native of Dartmouth, Nova Scotia is in at the moment.

So, how far can Gallagher go? At his current pace, he’s on track to have about 48 points on 29 goals and 19 assists by the end of the regular season. Call me a skeptic, but I have a bit of trouble believing that we’re going to see that from a guy who’s already surpassed his career total in goals. That said, Gallagher is coming off of a 28-point season a year ago, and I certainly expect him to surpass that by the end of the regular season.  I don’t know where Gallagher will land exactly, but he definitely has the look of a guy who could be in the mix.

The main caveat that Gallagher may face here is the fact that he scores most of his goals (six of his nine so far) on Cornell’s mighty power play, which is clicking at a 30.1 percent clip. Some people think it makes a difference in terms of Hobey candidacy whether you score 5-on-5 or with the man-advantage. I disagree, for two reasons. First, no matter how many men are on the ice, you still have to put the puck in the net. Bottom line. Second, when you have a power play like Cornell’s, you make the opposition think a little bit more about taking penalties, and that can give you more breathing room during even-strength play. I think the greatest measure of a player’s value to his team is how he impacts the team and the game, and by that standard, Gallagher and Greening are extremely valuable, and very much worth following as the season goes along.

And really, how nice is it to talk Cornell and not use the word “system?”

Every now and then, when I sit down to write a blog entry for the Hobey Watch, I can’t help but think, “isn’t it a bit early for this?”

Granted, those thoughts are on their last legs at this point in the season – one more month, and it’s no longer too early for anything, really – but I decided to sit down with some numbers and figure out whether it really is too early to evaluate potential candidates for the Hobey Baker Award.

Tuesday night, with all the pre-Thanksgiving action in the books, I decided to look at the statistics through Thanksgiving for the Hobey Hat Trick members from the last five seasons (if you want to know why I didn’t do more than that, either in terms of years or finalists, sit down and caluclate a couple of goals-against averages, and then get back to me).

Here’s the stats, broken down by position:

FORWARDS

Marty Sertich (2004-05):  10 GP, 8G, 8A, 16P
Brett Sterling (2004-05): 10 GP, 9G, 6A, 15P
Chris Collins (2005-06): 9 GP, 9G, 4A, 13P
Eric Ehn (2006-07): 14 GP, 14G, 14A, 28P
Ryan Duncan (2006-07): 12 GP, 8G, 5A, 13P
Kevin Porter (2007-08): 12 GP, 13G, 5A, 18P
Ryan Jones (2007-08): 12 GP, 9G, 3A, 12P
Nathan Gerbe (2007-08): 10GP, 5G, 4A, 9A
Colin Wilson (2008-09): 12GP, 5G, 13A, 18P

DEFENSEMEN

Matt Carle (2005-06): 12 GP, 5G, 8A, 13P
Matt Gilroy (2008-09): 12GP, 1G, 7A, 8P

GOALIES

David McKee (2004-05): 8 GP, 4-2-2, .941 SV%, 1.38 GAA
Brian Elliott (2005-06): 12 GP, 9-1-2, .943 SV%, 1.40 GAA
David Brown (2006-07): 11 GP, 8-2-1, .913 SV%, 2.15 GAA
Brad Thiessen (2008-09): 13GP, 9-2-2, .940 SV%, 1.90 GAA

So, it’s all very nice to look at, but what does it tell us? I mean, besides the fact that Eric Ehn got off to one hell of a start in 2006-07?

Well, for starters, of the forwards in the Hobey Hat Trick over the last five years, only one averaged less than a point a game at Thanksgiving (Nathan Gerbe). That may be bad news for Garrett Roe of St. Cloud, whom I’d tabbed as a guy to watch, and has 10 points in 11 games. Certainly nothing to sneeze at, but he has a ways to go to get himself into serious Hobey contention.

Tyler Ruegsegger of Denver is also in that “danger zone,” with .92 PPG, but to be fair, Patrick Weircoch still strikes me as the primary Hobey contender on that team where skaters are concerned. His .91 PPG through 11 games is a bit off from Matt Carle’s 1.08 PPG at Thanksgiving in his Hobey year, but it’s hardly unreasonable to expect him to pick up his scoring pace. 

I would be remiss, however, if I did not pay some attention to the Pioneers’ goaltender, Marc Cheverie,  who made quite the return to DU’s lineup last weekend against North Dakota after being injured at the end of October. I watched the Friday game at one of the few Buffalo Wild Wings in the New York metropolitan area, and while I was sorry not to see Chay Genoway on the ice for North Dakota (especially with all I’ve heard about him), I was certainly impressed at the way Cheverie didn’t miss a beat in his return (you may remember that the same could not be said of Brian Elliott when he was injured in his Hat Trick season).

Cheverie’s 58 saves on 60 shots in a weekend sweep – including a 34-save 1-0 shutout in his first game back – leave him with a national best save percentage of .961 and a NCAA-leading GAA of 1.19, better by far than any of the goalies who have made the Hobey Hat Trick in the last five years…and it’s even better than Ryan Miller’s numbers through Thanksgiving in his Hobey year of 2000-2001. When he sat down for turkey before the College Hockey Showcase in 2000, Miller had a 1.29 goals-against average and a .953 save percentage. Unreal – and better than any of the goalies who’ve made the Hat Trick in the last five years – but not quite as good as Cheverie.

If he can keep this up…who knows?

Meanwhile, one goalie who seems to be well out of contention at this point in the season after high expectations coming in is Zane Kalemba of Princeton. In fairness, Kalemba’s .904 save percentage isn’t so far from David Brown’s .913 at this point as to eliminate him completely, but with a goals-against average over 3 and Cheverie going great guns for Denver, it’ll take a dramatic improvement for Kalemba over the coming weeks to get back in the race.

Finally, Ryan McDonagh of Wisconsin is right on the line where defensemen are concerned, with a .67 PPG average, exactly what Matt Gilroy had at this time one year ago. Of course, the real story on the Badger blueline is Brendan Smith, with 13 points in 11 games, and there’s plenty of other high-scoring rearguards to keep tabs on (Genoway, Nick Schaus, Blake Kessel, etc.), but based on recent history, it’s too early to write off almost anybody who could have been considered a Hobey candidate coming into the season.

So, coming back to the original question: Is it too early to look at Hobey front-runners? In the sense that there’s still potential for someone to charge into the conversation, yes, but given how rare that’s been in the last few years, it’s not quite so early after all.

Happy Thanksgiving.

So, I suppose the best way for me to start would be by answering that nagging question…why haven’t I written anything substantial about Chay Genoway of North Dakota?

Clearly, it’s because of my malicious East Coast bias, isn’t it?

In all seriousness, I haven’t had a chance to get a good look at Genoway, but as a defenseman averaging more than a point-per-game on a Fighting [CENSORED] team that’s No. 2 in the country with precious few signs of those previous first-half struggles, he certainly should be on the radar.

That said, it may well be a good thing that I haven’t had a chance to watch Genoway closely. After all, this past weekend, I took the opportunity to take a closer look at Princeton’s Zane Kalemba and Quinnipiac’s Brandon Wong, and what did I get? Kalemba’s backup, Alan Reynolds, backstopping the Tigers to an overtime win over Dartmouth, and Wong going without a point in a 4-2 win over the Big Green.

Translation: a rough weekend for my alma mater, and almost as rough an outing for my Hobey candidate viewing.

I say “almost,” because while I didn’t get to see much from Wong – except for the attention he commanded from the Big Green throughout the game - I got a good look at his Bobcats teammate Eric Lampe, who is shaping up to be as strong a Hobey candidate as Wong, despite not having put up eye-popping numbers before this season.

Of course, the fact is that he had no numbers to speak of against Dartmouth, having a point-free night after burning Harvard for a hat trick and an assist the night before. That said, he was a major presence for the Bobcats, particularly on the penalty kill, where he was relentless in pressuring the point, leading to multiple shorthanded opportunities and more than one early end for a Big Green power play.

That kind of play is huge for the Bobcats, who play the hockey equivalent of what Virginia Tech football fans call “BeamerBall.” The Bobcats are always looking for scoring opportunities, whethere it’s even strength, power play, or penalty kill, and as I saw on Saturday, Lampe has been an even bigger part of that than his 14 points in nine games suggest.

And if you don’t believe me, just ask his coach.

“Brandon’s having a very good year,” Rand Pecknold told me after the game on Saturday, “and his numbers show that, but Eric Lampe’s been excellent. He’s our best player. He’s been absolutely dominant in eight of those nine games, and not just from an offensive standpoint. He’s great on the penalty kill. He’s great defensively. We’ve got a lot of guys playing well right now. He’s been our best player.”

Of course, none of this is to say that Wong may not eventually emerge as the top Hobey candidate on this Bobcats team, even if Lampe is the best player. You can certainly make arguments for Hobey winners who weren’t the best players on their teams, albeit usually when there was another Hobey finalist on the team. We heard it from some quarters last year, arguing that Colin Wilson was more Hobey-worthy than winner Matt Gilroy (I disagreed then, and I disagree now). It was certainly part of the conversation in 2005, vis-a-vis Marty Sertich and Brett Sterling, and while I wasn’t even in college yet in the spring of 2000, looking back, you could have made the argument for Brian Gionta over Mike Mottau.

Also, at some point, it does become a question of numbers, and with a 27-goal season on his resumé, Wong may go on to have the better season for Hobey purposes. As Pecknold points out, he has a lot of players performing well right now (keep an eye on sophomore Scott Zurevinski, while we’re at it, if not for this year than for the future).

“,” Pecknold said.

Of course, all of this said, it begs an important question, and it’s a question that also affects a guy like Matt Read of Bemidji State – whom I was asked about on Hockey on Campus last week – or Nick Schaus of UMass Lowell for that matter (and I was VERY impressed with him when I watched the River Hawks beat UNH on ESPN U weekend before last).

The question is: how much does a school’s brand name mean for winning the Hobey?

Now, obviously, the schools with the biggest names tend to attract a lot of talent, so in that sense, it’s hardly a surprise that the Hobey has gone exclusively to players from big-time hockey programs (I include Bowling Green in that program’s heyday in that statement).

Of course, we don’t have this problem in NCAA tournament selection, as the basketball folks do (and really, I’ll take the KRACH arguments over basketball’s tournament grousing every day of the week and twice on Selection Sunday). However, it is worth noting that no player has won the Hobey while playing at a school that couldn’t be considered a national hockey power at the time, and no matter what Quinnipiac and Lowell do this year, that kind of recognition takes some time to build up. Heck, Notre Dame and Miami are just starting to reach national power status now, and it’s taken consistent NCAA tournament presence and a national championship game berth apiece to get there.

In that light, it’s worth asking whether the fact that Brandon Wong or Nick Schaus could have a harder road to the Hobey than, say, Cornell’s Colin Greening or New Hampshire’s Blake Kessel, even though they play in the same conferences, because Wong and Schaus play at Quinnipiac and Lowell, respectively.

I’m not sure myself. What do you guys think?

It’s hard to believe – especially if you’re a fan of an Ivy League team whose season just began, but an entire month of the 2009-10 college hockey season is in the books. We’re now past the point of using last year to try to project what might happen this year, and that is especially true in the case of the race for the Hobey Baker Award.

The last time I wrote, I was looking at what last season might have to say about this season. Now, we’re starting to see who some of this season’s best players have been. With a month of college hockey gone, not only do we have a decent statistical basis on which to evaluate top players, but we also have Player of the Month awards. So, in this entry, I’m going to look at this month’s honorees from across the country and evaluate their likelihood of being a factor in the Hobey race.

In the CCHA, Alaska goaltender Scott Greenham was a surprise winner of the award, not in the sense that he was undeserving, but in the sense that it was hard to see this kind of a performance coming going into the season. The Nanooks went 5-0-1 in October, and with Greenham posting a .949 save percentage and a 1.14 GAA, it’s not hard to see why. Greenham’s play in October put him solidly in what we here at the Hobey Watch like to call “Ryan Miller territory,” and if he stays there, there’s certainly no reason why he couldn’t be a contender for the Hobey. Of course, he’d need some help from the team in front of him to get there, but the Nanooks produced a Hobey finalist last season in Chad Johnson, and they may well have another where that came from.

Now, playing devil’s advocate, all six of the Nanooks’ games in October were in the state of Alaska, against opponents who traveled from the lower 48. When it’s Alaska’s turn to travel and contend with jet lag and all the other occupational hazards that go with going on the road, we’ll start to get a better sense of how much of a contender Greenham is. That isn’t to say he’s not a contender – Johnson certainly was – but we don’t really know yet.

In Atlantic Hockey, the player of the month is R.I.T. defenseman Dan Ringwald, who had nine points (3g, 6a) in seven games for the Tigers. Nice numbers, certainly, especially from a defenseman, but RIT went 2-5-0 in October. On the one hand, that makes Ringwald’s +1 rating all the more impressive. On the other, it’s hard to get noticed on a sub-.500 team, even more so when that team doesn’t play in one of the Big Four conferences. That said, RIT’s five losses were against ECAC Hockey opponents Clarkson, St. Lawrence and Colgate, plus a pair against reigning Atlantic champ Air Force. Given the way the Tigers decimated UConn, it wouldn’t be too shocking to see them emerge as a force to be reckoned with once again in Atlantic Hockey, and if that happens, Ringwald will get more of a look as a potential Hobey finalist. I have my doubts about him as a potential winner, but we’ll see.

In Hockey East, it’s hardly surprising that UMass forward James Marcou is the Player of the Month. All he did was score 11 points in five games as the Minutemen went 4-1. Last year, I couldn’t help but norice how often Marcou’s name turned up on the Hockey East press releases, and I think that this year, he could easily be a finalist. Is he a contender to win the Hobey? I’ll need to see more goals, because we know Hobey likes his forwards to score goals, but Marcou has definitely put himself on the radar as much as anyone else in the season’s first month.

Now, as of this writing, ECAC Hockey, the CHA and the WCHA have not named monthly award winners, so I’m going to have to pick players who grabbed attention.

In ECAC Hockey, the fact that half the conference’s teams started play last weekend makes it tough to pick a player, but Quinnipiac forward Brandon Wong makes it easy. Wong had three goals and six assists for the Bobcats, who went 4-1-0 in October, including a pair of wins at Ohio State. One of Wong’s goals was the game-winner in one of those road wins over the Buckeyes, and performing well in non-conference action is often a good way to get yourself noticed. Wong has made noise before, and has a history as a goal-scorer (27 as a freshman, in case you’ve forgotten), so it’s going to be well worth watching Wong – all about alliteration! – as the season progresses. Can he win the Hobey at Quinnipiac? My gut feeling is no, but then again, if he keeps putting up the numbers, my guts – like John Cusack’s in High Fidelity – may be proven to have doo-doo for brains (yes, I said doo-doo…this is a family site, people!). And I have no problem invoking Cusack…he’s buddies with former Wisconsin Badger Chris Chelios (gotta love the Malibu Mob).

In the CHA, Bemidji State forward Matt Read has 10 points in six games for the 5-0-1 Beavers. Bemidji is going to be watched a good bit more this season – between the Beavers’ run to the Frozen Four last season and their impending WCHA membership – so if Read can continue to produce, he may give Jacques Lamoureux a  run for his money when it comes to that Hobey finalist spot that seems to go to one small-conference player each year.

Finally, there’s the WCHA, where there are three players well worth a Hobey look based on October numbers. One is Wisconsin defenseman Brendan Smith, who has nine points in seven games. Now, the Badgers’ start this season hasn’t exactly been red hot – they’re 3-2-1 with a couple of tough conference losses to Colorado College and Minnesota State, but when the Badgers win, they win big, and Smith’s +2 rating complements his two goals and seven assists nicely. Plus/minus isn’t that big in the Hobey finalist considerations – see Smith’s former teammate, Jamie McBain – but if Smith continues to produce at this level, don’t be surprised to see Smith – a former first-round NHL draft pick and a rare college pick by the Detroit Red Wings – force his name into serious Hobey consideration.

The other players worth watching out of the WCHA after a strong October are a pair of Bulldogs: Minnesota Duluth’s Jack Connolly and Justin Fontaine. What I like about their Octobers is that they’ve both shown excellent balance on the scoresheet, scoring goals AND handing out assists. The Bulldogs are off to a solid start, and if it continues, these two should have a shot to get into the upper echelon of the Hobey talk.

Speaking of which, let the talk continue.