So much for Jean-Philippe Lamoureux getting to shake Kevin Porter’s hand after the national championship game, huh?

 Oh well…

In any case, the Hobey Baker Memorial Award will be presented tonight, in all likelihood to Kevin Porter, and while I won’t be watching the ceremony here in New York - I don’t get ESPNU…thank you very much, Cablevision - I do have a final thought or two to share on the race for college hockey’s top individual honor.

Unsurprisingly, there’s still a fair amount of displeasure in certain quarters about Nathan Gerbe making the Hobey Hat Trick, and as scintillating a performance as he had yesterday against North Dakota, it can’t change the way people feel about him as a Hobey candidate.

But here’s the problem.

The reality is that the Hobey is effectively college hockey’s Player of the Year award. This may strike you as obvious, but it’s important to keep in mind. Unlike college football, which has the Maxwell Award and the Walter Camp in addition to the Heisman, and college basketball, which has multiple player of the year awards - most notably the Naismith Award (which doesn’t include character among its criteria) and the Wooden Award (which does) - college hockey has one award for its top player.

Make no mistake, the Hobey goes to the top player in college hockey. Kevin Porter is getting the award tonight because he’s a <i>better player</i> than Ryan Jones. In my estimation - and granted, I don’t know the players all that well personally - Jones suits the overall award criteria as well as anyone in recent memory, and a shade better than Porter. Eric Ehn probably fit the overall award criteria better than Ryan Duncan, for that matter, but in the end, this is the Player of the Year award, for all intents and purposes, and the best player, or the player who had the best season, wins (in theory). On that score, Nathan Gerbe clearly deserves to be among the three finalists for the award.

But that brings us back to T.J. Hensick, and the Hat Trick snub that hasn’t gone away.

While only those who were on the Hobey conference call know for sure, the prevailing wisdom is that Hensick’s 10-minute misconduct late in the 2007 West regional semifinal against North Dakota cost him a spot in the Hat Trick, if not the award itself. Now, I would suggest that that penalty cost him more because of what it did for his team’s chances at winning, where Gerbe’s infractions meant he had to sit out against New Hampshire, and we can see how much that mattered to BC in the long run. Still, that’s not a satisfying distinction for a lot of people, and that’s certainly understandable.

So, what do we do?

The way I see it, there are two options here. One would be to establish a separate Player of the Year award, with no character criteria, in addition to the Hobey. I don’t really like that idea. For one thing, I doubt anyone would care about the new award, and I also don’t think that we need two Player of the Year awards for our 58 teams.

The other solution is actually something that came up last year, in an impromptu radio discussion with ESPNU’s Bob Norton (and for the record, I was the only one of us who mentioned an eastern prep school…in that I happen to get along particularly well with Taft School alums in college hockey for some unknown reason).

The night before the 2007 Frozen Four, Bob and I were both guests on “Hockey on Campus,” on Boston-based 1510 The Zone, and with Bob’s encouragement, we were brought on air together to discuss the Hobey. Bob was upset about the whole Hensick debacle, and talked about character assassination on the conference call. Bob made the excellent point that a lot of the voters don’t know many of the candidates personally, and so negative discussions of character in that forum can be a dicey proposition.

The solution that Bob arrived at - or at least, the suggestion he made - was that character considerations should be able to help a Hobey candidate’s cause, but not hurt it.

Maybe that’s what happened here, and maybe it’s what should have happened last year, and T.J. Hensick should have been in the Hobey Hat Trick (although I don’t know who you’d take out in that case). However, what’s done is done, and all we can do now is go forward.

And tonight, Kevin Porter will go forward to accept the Hobey. 

You know, I’m really not the kind of guy to say that I told you so, but…well, you know.

Congratulations to Michigan’s Kevin Porter, Miami’s Ryan Jones, and Boston College’s Nathan Gerbe, who have been named to the Hobey Hat Trick as the top three vote-getters in the final voting for the Hobey Baker Memorial Award.

Yes, that’s right: final voting. Just to clear up any confusion, the final voting has already taken place, and the naming of the Hat Trick is more for the purposes of next Friday’s presentation ceremony, along with the really cool photo pucks and posters they sell at the Frozen Four.

So, if you have some theory that the exclusion of North Dakota goaltender Jean-Philippe Lamoureux is an attempt to rig the final voting in favor of Porter, I’m just going to have to just go ahead and burst your conspiracy theory bubble right there. The voting is already done, and to be honest, Porter wouldn’t have needed any help in capturing the award.

As far as Lamoureux goes, all this means is that he finished no higher than fourth in the voting. For all we know, Lamoureux finished a single point behind the third-place vote-getter. It doesn’t matter whether it was one point or a hundred. This isn’t like the Heisman Trophy, where the number of players invited to the presentation ceremony changes from year to year. If I had to guess, I’d say that Lamoureux finished fourth, but it makes no difference.

For the record, if this was like the Heisman, where you can change the number of players invited, I’m sure Lamoureux would be part of the ceremony. I’d certainly invite him. He’s had an amazing season, especially when viewed in light of his being the supposed question mark coming into the season for North Dakota.

The problem is that there are only three spots, and there are four - five, if you include Michigan State’s Jeff Lerg - players to fill them. No disrespect to Ryan Lasch, Simon Lambert, T.J. Oshie, Lee Jubinville or Kevin Regan, but I never really looked at them as likely members of the Hat Trick. In any event, someone gets left out no matter what.

So, who?

Obviously, Porter isn’t getting left out. He’s going to win the darn thing, so he’s got to be there.

That leaves Jones, Gerbe, Lamoureux and Lerg to fill two spots, although I felt that Michigan State needed to get to the Frozen Four for Lerg to have a shot at the Hat Trick. I don’t know that he would have made it even with those wins, but MSU isn’t in the Frozen Four, and Lerg isn’t in the Hobey Hat Trick (keep an eye on him for next season, though).

So, that leaves Jones, Gerbe and Lamoureux for two spots.

I can’t think of a player who embodies everything you want in a collegiate athlete better than Ryan Jones. Obviously, he’s one of the best players in the country, he plays in all situations, and was the captain of a team that ascended to the nation’s No. 1 Ranking with a 2007 Hobey Baker finalist sidelined in the first game of the season (Nathan Davis did return, of course, but Miami got to No. 1 without him). On top of that, there’s the much-publicized donation of his long hair to Locks for Love (hopefully, he’ll keep it through the Hobey ceremony before he cuts it off), and the fact that he took a special “sprint” course in the first half of the spring semester, so that he could complete his degree requirements before the NCAA tournament, allowing him to start his pro hockey career immediately while still getting his degree from Miami.

That leaves Gerbe and Lamoureux, and I’m sure the folks who are upset about Lamoureux not making the top three will point to the infamous suspension in November. For the third or fourth time, that became a dead issue when Hockey East commissioner Joe Bertagna said himself that it shouldn’t disqualify Gerbe from consideration. Of course, since there hasn’t been a Hobey Hat Trick without and Eastern representative - and that factored into the prediction I made on Monday - I’m guessing the cries of “East Coast Bias” will follow in short order.

Folks, I’ve seen all the finalists. I saw more than three quarters of the Division I teams in the country, and I can tell you with great confidence that I did not see a more exciting player than Nathan Gerbe. The numbers do not lie: Gerbe deserves to be there.

And so does Lamoureux.

In the end, that’s what it all comes down to: more players who deserve spots than there are spots to be awarded.

So, if you want to get upset over the fact that Lamoureux probably finished fourth in the voting, and didn’t finish third, well, that’s your perogative.

Lamoureux, I’m sure, is more concerned with getting his team past Boston College in a week.

After all, being named to the Hobey Hat Trick just gives you the right to shake Kevin Porter’s hand after he wins, and I’m sure Lamoureux would rather do that in the handshake line after the national championship game.

As Tony Kornheiser might say when discussing American Idol, ”It’s Go Time.” 

The regionals are behind us, and while we have 10 days to wait before the Frozen Four, there’s an important bit of news headed our way before then: the Hobey Hat Trick.

This is the last real question that I have to answer this year, because, as I’ve said ad nauseum, the award is Kevin Porter’s, it has been for some time, and if there was any lingering doubt, it was erased when Porter was named Most Outstanding Player at the East Regional.

But that’s the easy part. The hard part - as my former colleagues on the CSTV Hobey Baker Watch panel will attest - is getting the Hat Trick right.

This year should be easier, since there’s a group of three (maybe four if you include Jeff Lerg) players competing for the two spots that won’t be Porter, but at the same time, any combination is feasible, so who do you leave home?

Well, a good place to start is how the players did since being named finalists.

Nathan Gerbe, F, Jr., Boston College: three assists in 5-4 overtime win over New Hampshire in Hockey East semifinals; a goal and an assist in a 4-0 win over Vermont in the Hockey East final; a goal and an assist in a 5-2 win over Minnesota in the Northeast Regional semifinals; one goal in a 4-3 overtime win over Miami in the Northeast Regional final.

Ryan Jones, F, Sr., Miami: one assist in a 2-1 overtime win over Notre Dame in the CCHA semifinals; no points in a 2-1 loss to Michigan in the CCHA championship; one assist in 3-2 overtime win over Air Force in the Northeast Regional semifinals; one goal in a 4-3 overtime loss to Boston College in the Northeast Regional final.

Jean-Philippe Lamoureux, G, Sr., North Dakota: 27 saves on 29 shots in 3-1 loss to Denver in the WCHA semifinals; 33 saves on 35 shots in a 4-2 win over Colorado College in the WCHA consolation game; 38 saves on 39 shots in 5-1 win over Princeton in the Midwest Regional seimifinals; 41 saves on 43 shots in a 3-2 overtime win over Wisconsin in the Midwest Regional final.

Jeff Lerg, G, Jr., Michigan State: 41 saves on 42 shots in a 3-1 win over Colorado College in the West Regional semifinals; 23 saves on 26 shots in a 3-1 loss to Notre Dame in the West Regional championship.

The safe pick for the Hobey Hat Trick is Porter, Lamoureux and Gerbe. Three different conferences are represented, all three players are in the Frozen Four, and there’s a goaltender in the mix, as there has been with every Hobey Hat Trick since 2003 (2002’s trio of Darren Haydar, Mark Hartigan and eventual winner Jordan Leopold was the last Hat trick without a goalie).

That’s the safe pick.

But it’s not my pick.

I just can’t see Ryan Jones being left out in the cold here.

Jones is a very similar to Porter in terms of the blend of leadership and production that he gives his team. Jones also shares the national lead in game-winning goals (unless Chad Kolarik scores a game-winner for Michigan in the Frozen Four), and the fact that he’s donating his long hair to Locks For Love - over the protestations of Barry Melrose, I hasten to add - gives him a real “total package” as a candidate for the Hobey. If it weren’t for Porter, I’d pick him to win.

So, if Jones is in, then who’s out?

Sorry, North Dakota fans.

Lamoureux has had an excellent season. The numbers don’t lie, as he leads the country in both save percentage and goals-against average, and he can laugh all the way to Denver at the people who thought he’d be the weak link for North Dakota this season. There’s really not much you can say against him.

However, if Jones is in, then someone else has to go. Could it be Gerbe, given the much-discussed issue of his suspension in the fall for a spear against Merrimack? Maybe, but I think it’s a dead issue at this point, especially now that Hockey East commissioner Joe Bertagna, the same man who issued the suspension and commented on a pattern of “inappropriate behavior” from the BC forward, is on the record as saying that it shouldn’t be a factor. Besides, I can see the WCHA not being represented, because it’s happened to the CCHA and Hockey East twice each in the last three years (both were out in 2005, when Colorado College’s Marty Sertich beat out teammate Brett Sterling and Cornell goalie David McKee), but I can’t see the east going wholly unrepresented in the Hat Trick.

Why not? It hasn’t happened since there’s been such a thing as the “Hobey Hat Trick.”

So, there you have it. I’m calling Porter, Jones and Gerbe for the Hobey Hat Trick. Right or wrong, we’ll break down what happens after the announcement is made.

In the first round of last year’s NCAA tournament, so goes the prevailing wisdom, Michigan’s T.J. Hensick slammed the nail in the coffin on his Hobey Baker chances.

In the first round of this year’s tournament, his former linemate, Kevin Porter, slammed the nail in the coffin on everyone else’s chances.

In case anyone had any remaining doubts about the Wolverine senior, he scored four of Michigan’s five goals in a 5-1 win over Niagara, as Michigan snapped a three-game losing streak in the tournament and advanced to Saturday’s East Regional final against Clarkson.

He also made comedians out of his head coach, Red Berenson, and his classmate, Chad Kolarik, although the latter didn’t need much help.

“I guess Kevin Porter’s not in a slump anymore,” Berenson mused. Funny, but Kolarik won the impromptu contest when he said, ”About time he matched me,” a reference to his four-goal effort against Lake Superior in February.

“He’s the best player in the nation,” Kolarik said, “and this should solidify his spot for Hobey. We’ve been praising him all year, and I’m his campaign manager.”

 The campaign appears to be working, as chants of “HOB-EY BAK-ER,” separated by the ubiquitous five-clap pattern, rained down from the Maize-clad students after each of Porter’s four goals.  It was a bit different from the last time I watched Porter in person (against Boston University, back in October, when Porter was just having a really nice start to the season), but in Porter’s mind, the biggest difference is that each goal brought Michigan closer to the Frozen Four.

“I try not to think about it,” Porter said of the chants linking him to college hockey’s top individual honor. “It’s nice, but we’re here to win a national championship. It’s about our team. It’s not about one person. I wouldn’t be anywhere near where I am right now without [Kolarik and Max Pacioretty] or the rest of the team.”

When he’s not getting laughs while talking about his classmate and linemate, Kolarik - who reminded everyone that he had a pretty good case as a Hobey finalist himself with five assists (bringing his season totals to 25 assists and 53 points) - echoed Porter’s sentiments.

“We’re all about the team right now,” Kolarik said. “It’s team time right now. ‘Ports’ will eventually get his when we get to the Frozen Four.”

Clarkson, of course, figures to have something to say about whether the Wolverines will indeed make it to Denver, and the Golden Knights had success containing another Hobey finalist on Friday, holding St. Cloud’s Ryan Lasch without a shot on goal in their 2-1 win over the Huskies. However, as fine as season as Lasch has had, stopping him and stopping Porter are two very different propositions.

“I don’t know what to do to stop that line for Michigan,” Niagara head coach Dave Burkholder said of Porter’s line with Kolarik and Pacioretty. “Those guys are going to be on TV for a long, long time. I don’t know how you stop them. We certainly didn’t have the answer tonight.”

Saturday night, we’ll learn if Clarkson has the answer that can get them past Porter, Kolarik and company. However, when it comes to the question of who will hoist the Hobey two weeks from tonight, that question was answered a long time ago.

Tonight, we got a reminder.

The second-to-last college hockey weekend of the season is upon us, but for the Hobey Baker finalists who are still playing, this is it: time to put up or shut up.

Oh, the heck with it: Kevin Porter won the award months ago, and everyone else is playing for second…and third.

And of course, among the people playing for second and third is one T.J. Oshie. I expressed surprise at the North Dakota forward earning a finalist spot in light of his problems with the law (he’s been arrested just once, but I think this is a fair way to account for the other incident), but I acknowledged there are very good reasons for Oshie to be a finalist. Still, the logic of Michigan’s T.J. Hensick talking his way out of a spot in the Hobey Hat Trick last year while Oshie (and, to a lesser extent, BC’s Nathan Gerbe) made the top three this year is a bit tough to figure.

That said, though, I think I’ve got it.

The offenses perpetrated by Oshie and Gerbe this year deprived their respective teams of their services for one game apiece, for games relatively early in the season. Both teams lost, but as we can see heading into this weekend, they’ve survived. Hensick, by contrast, left Michigan without the nation’s top scorer in the crucial moments of an NCAA tournament game, and while Hensick’s presence would probably not have been enough to get the Wolverines past North Dakota in that wild West shootout in Denver (it was wild, and it was in the West region…it works), it weakened what opportunity they did have.

Of course, if that’s the reasoning, then it means that character only becomes a disqualifying factor for the Hobey when it affects the team’s chance of winning. Now, that doesn’t strike me as being all that similar to what’s written in the selection criteria for the award, but it is a formula that allows for l’affaire Hensicklast year and Oshie getting a finalist spot this year (yes, and Gerbe too).

Now, that’s all a rehash of what’s happened before now, and there’s no reason to dwell on the past right now, as the NCAA tournament is just about upon us. So, what, if anything, does all of this mean for the games ahead?

If you think that Porter is going to go the way of his former linemate this weekend, think again. Porter is a much different player and a different person, and the captain who led Michigan so far past expectations this season isn’t about to jeopardize his team’s NCAA title chances like that. However, for the guys playing for second and third, it’s something to keep an eye on.

I have written in the past that Porter will, in all likelihood, be joined by some combination of Gerbe, North Dakota’s Jean-Philippe Lamoureux and Miami’s Ryan Jones, although if Michigan State can find its way from Colorado Springs to Denver, I wouldn’t write Jeff Lerg off, either. Now, neither Lamoureux nor Lerg is a likely candidate for an ill-advised penalty (really, how many goaltender penalties do you see in college hockey?), but both Gerbe and Jones have spent quite a bit of time in the sin bin this season (65 and 79 minutes, respectively, according to both schools’ official athletic sites). Both players are extremely competitive - it’s a big part of why they’re the great players they are - but that competitive energy can have negative consequences when it boils over, and if that happens in a crucial situation this weekend, it could make the difference when it comes time to decide who gets to sit next to Porter in Denver two weeks from tomorrow.

Of course, there’s also the fact that Gerbe and Jones could very well meet this Sunday in the final of the Northeast Regional. Could a spot in the Hat Trick be up for grabs if BC and Miami are playing for a Frozen Four berth? I wouldn’t rule it out.

Naturally, though, all this talk is secondary, as the primary concern this weekend is who’s going to Denver. Still, this is something else to think about.

Last year, I correctly pegged nine of the 10 Hobey Baker finalists. This year, I’m down to six. 

Oops.

 So, let’s look at the four finalists whom I missed, and gauge the level of surprise.

 Lee Jubinville, Princeton: For someone who had this wrong, I can’t imagine being any less surprised than I am. I shouldn’t have figured ECAC Hockey to be shut out for finalists, and I did mention Jubinville as a darkhorse for a finalist berth last week. As the leading scorer on a Princeton team that exceeded all expectations, won the Ivy League title, and isn’t done yet, it’s only natural to reward Jubinville with the first Hobey finalist spot awarded to a player from Hobey’s alma mater.

 Simon Lambert, RIT: It’s interesting that Atlantic Hockey’s lone representative isn’t the conference’s Player of the Year, but Lambert is certainly worthy. He’s one of the top five scorers in the nation, an accomplishment made all the more impressive by the fact that he was recruited to RIT as a Division III player. You know, it’s kind of funny: the only Tigers not represented among the Hobey finalists are the ones I expected to be (Colorado College).

 T.J. Oshie, North Dakota: Is anyone else amused that after all the hand-wringing over whether Nathan Gerbe should be considered for the award after his one-game suspension in the fall for an on-ice incident, he’s joined among the finalists by a player who was arrested  this season? There’s no denying that Oshie is a great player, but if I’m a Michigan fan, I am livid right now, because this looks - shall we say, “interesting?” - in the wake of last season’s T.J. Hensick saga, not to mention the fact that Oshie beat out a very worthy Chad Kolarik, among others, for this spot.

OK, enough of the controversy, although I maintain that I’m very surprised by the pick. Oshie is a great player at both ends of the ice, a player whose worth isn’t truly captured by his healthy numbers, and one of the biggest reasons that the Fighting Sioux are where they are right now. Not only that, he was part of the celebrated pact in the offseason that brought Oshie, 2007 Hobey winner Ryan Duncan, Joe Finley and Taylor Chorney back to Grand Forks. In this era of widespread early NHL signings, the sort of commitment that those players showed and the follow-through that Oshie and his mates have delivered deserve to be rewarded.

 Jeff Lerg, Michigan State: Lerg may be an even bigger surprise than Oshie, albeit for almost the exact opposite reason. There are 16 goalies with a better goals-against average than Lerg, and 10 with a better save percentage. However, only two of those netminders - North Dakota’s Jean-Philippe Lamoureux and New Hampshire’s Kevin Regan - join Lerg among the Hobey finalists.

 There are, I think, two reasons for Lerg landing in the top 10 over the likes of Richard Bachman, Jeff Zatkoff, Billy Sauer, et al. First, there’s Lerg’s inspiring personal story. He’s a 4.0 student (provided his grades haven’t slipped since Rick Comley told us in the media about that on several occasions last year), a severe asthmatic, and a wonderful kid…not to mention the goaltender for the reigning national champions. The second reason follows from the first, and that is that Lerg is an exceptional big game goaltender. If you need to win one game, and you need to pick a college goalie to put in net, Lerg would top a lot of lists, certainly over the three aforementioned goaltenders who didn’t get a nod, who have a combined one NCAA tournament win between them (although that isn’t entirely fair to the freshman Bachman).

Of course, there may be 10 finalists, but for the next stage, there may only be four…right?

 Certainly, I’m expecting the Hobey Hat Trick to be comprised of Kevin Porter and some combination of Nathan Gerbe, Ryan Jones and Jean-Philippe Lamoureux. However, now that Lerg’s a finalist, I have to wonder whether he could crash the party. To this point, certainly, Lamoureux has had the more impressive season, but Lerg has built his reputation on big games, and he could play four of those before the committee votes again.

The next two weekends just got quite a bit more interesting.

Well, here we go.

By the end of the day, we’ll know the 10 players who have earned the status of finalist for the 2008 Hobey Baker Memorial Award. For the first time, we’ll have some concrete answers after all of the pontificating that tends to happen around this award, not to mention the snazzy highlight video that the Hobey folks put together. 

Of course, there’s a few names that we already know. Michigan’s Kevin Porter, the likely winner, obviously has one of the ten spots, and while it’s unsure what combination of Boston College’s Nathan Gerbe, North Dakota’s Jean-Philippe Lamoureux, and Miami’s Ryan Jones will join him in the Hobey Hat Trick, all three are locks as finalists. So, that’s four, right off the bat.

Of course, Lamoureux will not be the only goalie, in all likelihood. However, after taking more time to think on it, I don’t think the 2008 finalists will match the 2005 group with its four goaltenders. I’m going to say three here, as Lamoureux will be joined by Colorado College freshman Richard Bachman and Miami junior Jeff Zatkoff.

In a year where first-round draft picks like Wisconsin’s Kyle Turris and New Hampshire’s James vanRiemsdyk were all the talk in the incoming freshman class, Bachman has made the biggest impact of any first-year player in the nation, turning aposition of uncertainty for the Tigers into a major strength. In a funny coincidence, Bachman is a draft pick of the Dallas Stars, who currently have CC’s last Hobey Baker winner, Marty Sertich, in their system. Of course, Bachman’s not a winner this year, but if the Stars show some patience, who knows? His remarkable freshman campaign may just be the beginning.

 Zatkoff, meanwhile, has been a model of consistency for the the RedHawks. In 32 games this season, Zatkoff has given up more than two goals just five times. In the business, that’s what’s known as “giving your team a chance to win every night,” and it’s what Zatkoff does. Given that Zatkoff had not had to play back-to-back nights for most of his career until this point, the fact that he’s been so consistent for Miami this season is even more impressive, and I think that stablilty will be rewarded with a finalist nod.

Of course, that will leave some fine netminders on the outside looking in, most notably Kevin Regan of New Hampshire and Billy Sauer of Michigan. Sauer may well be the nation’s most improved player, but I think the Michigan-friendly votes are going to be spread fairly thin (see below), and the fact that Sauer wasn’t even one of Michigan’s own selections for the fan voting says something here. Regan, for his part, has long been underappreciated at New Hampshire, and while he’s a stable backbone to a well-balanced New Hampshire team, I don’t think that he’ll get the recognition that he may well deserve.

So, that’s seven finalists, with three to go. Who will those three be? I’m looking at Michigan’s Chad Kolarik, St. Cloud’s Ryan Lasch, and Boston University’s Peter MacArthur to round out the top 10. Kolarik’s work with Porter on and off the ice has been the difference between a No. 4 finish in the CCHA and the nation’s No. 1 ranking. Lasch has produced a 50-point season and helped lead St. Cloud back to a likely NCAA tournament berth as a sophomore. MacArthur, meanwhile, has emerged as an outstanding leader for the Terriers, particularly sicne being named captain in December, and delivered in the clutch for BU with two goals in each of the Terriers’ Hockey East playoff wins this past weekend.

Now, this is what I think, but there are two other possibilities that wouldn’t particularly surprise me. Bryan Marshall didn’t make my list because of where Nebraska-Omaha finished in the CCHA, but his numbers certainly speak for themselves. I could see him beating out Lasch or Kolarik for one of the last three spots. Also, Regan may beat out MacArthur for a finalist nod out of Hockey East.

From there, well, it remains to be seen.

 EDIT: Silly me, I double-counted Lamoureux. Let’s go with Regan in the last spot, making it four goalies after all. New Hampshire played a strong non-conference schedule this year, with two games each against North Dakota and Colorado College, exposing Regan to voters in other areas.

First of all, I’d like to thank everyone at USCHO for inviting me to be part of the site again following my departure from CSTV.com. This is a very special community we have the privilege to be involved in, and I’m glad for any opportunity I have to speak to that community and offer my opinions.

Of course, the great irony of my being invited to blog about the race for the Hobey Baker Memorial Award is that it doesn’t seem to be much of a race this season. Not only does Michigan’s Kevin Porter lead the nation in points and points per game, but he’s also the captain and one of only two seniors on a team that was supposed to finish fourth in the CCHA, and wound up spending a healthy portion of the season as the No. 1 team in the land. I tend to think that it’ll take a lot more than a misconduct penalty to keep him from winning the award, let alone making the Hat Trick.

So, operating on the assumption that Kevin Porter will win the Hobey until proven otherwise, what else do we have to ask about?

Who Will Join Porter in the Hobey Hat Trick? Two players will shake Porter’s hand in Denver immediately after he’s named as the winner. Who will they be? When I was still running the weekly Hobey Baker Watch over at CSTV.com, Boston College’s Nathan Gerbe and Miami’s Ryan Jones were running second and third behind Porter. That, of course, was before North Dakota had come all the way back, and Jean-Philippe Lamoureux had reasserted himself as one of the top players in the nation.

One month later, there isn’t much of a change to the picture, with the exception of Lamoureux, so whether you call it four for three or three for two, someone is going to be the odd man out of this picture.

Obviously, it won’t be Porter, and I have a feeling it won’t be Gerbe either. That feeling is based on Gerbe’s freshman year, when Chris Collins was the Hobey candidate out of Boston College. The projected Hat Trick from the CSTV.com panel that year included David Carle, Brian Elliott, and Ryan Potulny. Of course, we know how that one worked out: Collins was in, and the projected winner, Potulny, was out.

The lesson is to never forget that the panel is geographically spread out, and that some representation from the east is very likely.

The potential mitigating factor, of course, is Gerbe’s much-talked-about suspension by Hockey East in the fall, and the comments by commissioner Joe Bertagna that accompanied said suspension. That said, Bertagna himself has said that the suspension shouldn’t disqualify Gerbe, and in the end, I’d expect voters in the east to get behind Gerbe like conservative Republicans sucking it up and supporting John McCain.

That leaves one spot and two players: Ryan Jones and Jean-Philippe Lamoureux.

Lamoureux has the advantage of playing for the hottest team in the nation, and coming from a different conference than Porter (unlike Jones). More importantly, he’s put up outstanding numbers in a season when he was initially viewed as the weak link for a Sioux team that was returning several top skaters who had the opportunity to turn pro. The supposed question mark turned into an exclamation point, and that will speak well of him to the voters.

Jones, meanwhile, is something of a poor man’s Porter in terms of his Hobey candidacy, although they’re very different players. Both have combined production and leadership to key their teams’ runs to the top. Jones also leads the nation in game-winning goals, which factors into his role as a leader on and off the ice for Miami. It also speaks well of Jones that he’s donating his long hair to Locks For Love at the end of the season.

Of course, this is a question that won’t be answered until after the regionals, so the events of the next three weeks may yet influence that third spot in the Hat Trick. However, while recent history favors a goaltender making the Hat Trick, keep an eye on Lamoureux’s save percentage. Among the last five netminders to make the Hat Trick, only David Brown’s .931 save percentage is lower than the .934 Lamoureux currently sports. Of course, that .934 also happens to be the best in the country, but with another very worthy contender for the third finalist spot in Jones, don’t be too surprised if this Hat Trick is the first since 2002 not to include a goaltender.

That leads to the next question…

How Many Finalists Will Be Goalies? The 2005 finalists included four goaltenders among the Top 10: Jordan Sigalet of Bowling Green, Dov Grumet-Morris of Harvard, Tuomas Tarkki of Northern Michigan, and the Hat Trick representative, Cornell’s David McKee. The Class of 2008 is well equipped to match or even beat that number.

In addition to Lamoureux, there’s another surprise out of the WCHA in Colorado College freshman Richard Bachman, Lamoureux’s equal in save percentage. The CCHA has Jeff Zatkoff of Miami, just a shade behind Lamoureux in goals-against and behind the WCHA boys in save percentage, and Billy Sauer, who’s gone from Michigan’s greatest liability to one of the Wolverines’ strongest assets. Meanwhile, in the east, there’s New Hampshire’s Kevin Regan, the long-underappreciated backstop behind one of the most balanced and successful teams in the country; Cornell’s Ben Scrivens, who’s proving himself a worthy heir to Cornell’s rich goaltending tradition; and even Army’s Josh Kassel, who keyed the Black Knights’ dramatic second-half run to the top of Atlantic Hockey.

Now, let’s be serious: there won’t be seven goaltenders in the Top 10. But could there be five, or even six?

Well, we already know three forwards who will be finalists: Porter, Gerbe and Jones. How many more skaters will there be? Bryan Marshall is having a season worthy of consideration at Nebraska-Omaha. Chad Kolarik has been a key to Michigan’s success skating alongside Porter. Ryan Lasch has produced beyond his years at St. Cloud. There’s also the reigining Hobey Baker winner, Ryan Duncan, who’s having a fine (albeit not Hobey-worthy) year. There may even be someone we haven’t really considered up until this point (see below).

It’s a good field of goalies, but I expect them to match 2005 at best when it comes to quantity.

Who’s This Season’s Surprise Finalist? OK, who saw Drew Bagnall coming as a Hobey finalist last year? Yeah, right. Someone may well be part of this field who hasn’t really been part of the conversation to this point. Reid Cashman in 2005 would be another example.

Of course, both Bagnall and Cashman are defensemen, but I must say that the crop of Hobey finalist candidates on the blueline is thin this year. My pick would be either Princeton’s Lee Jubinville or Boston University’s Pete MacArthur.

Jubinville is the highest scorer on the top line that led Princeton to the Ivy League title this year, and may yet lead the Tigers to Albany and possibly even in to the NCAA tournament. MacArthur, meanwhile, was made BU’s captain in December, and proceeded to lead the Terriers back into an NCAA tournament picture that no one expeted them to be part of following an ugly start. MacArthur’s numbers are solid, but it’s the leadership that he’s provided and the drive that oozes from every facet of his game that make him my darkhorse pick to land among the finalists.

Of course, there’s more hockey yet to be played, and who know where that will take us?