Welcome back to the next installment of our Bracketology, and we’ll keep bringing you a new one every week until we make our final picks before the field is announced.

If you want to skip the inner workings and get to the results of the analysis, then click here.

Here are the facts:

• Sixteen teams are selected to participate in the national tournament.

• There are four regional sites (East — Bridgeport, Conn.; Northeast — Worcester, Mass.; Midwest — Green Bay, Wis.; West — St. Paul, Minn.)

• A host institution which is invited to the tournament plays in the regional for which it is the host, and cannot be moved. There are four host institutions this year: Yale in Bridgeport, Holy Cross in Worcester, Michigan Tech in Green Bay and Minnesota in St. Paul.

• Seedings will not be switched, as opposed to years past. To avoid undesirable first-round matchups, including intra-conference games (see below), teams will be moved among regionals, not reseeded.

Here are the NCAA’s guidelines on the matter, per a meeting of the championship committee:

In setting up the tournament, the committee begins with a list of priorities to ensure a successful tournament on all fronts including competitive equity, financial success and likelihood of playoff-type atmosphere at each regional site. For the model, the following is a basic set of priorities:

• The top four teams as ranked by the committee are the four No. 1 seeds and will be placed in the bracket so that if all four teams advance to the Men’s Frozen Four, the No. 1 seed will play the No. 4 seed and the No. 2 seed will play the No. 3 seed in the semifinals.

• Host institutions that qualify will be placed at home.

• No. 1 seeds are placed as close to home as possible in order of their ranking 1-4.

• Conference matchups in first round are avoided, unless five or more teams from one conference are selected, then the integrity of the bracket will be preserved.

• Once the five automatic qualifiers and 11 at-large teams are selected, the next step is to develop four groups from the committee’s ranking of 1-16. The top four teams are the No. 1 seeds. The next four are targeted as No. 2 seeds. The next four are No. 3 seeds and the last four are No. 4 seeds. These groupings will be referred to as “bands”.

Given these facts, here is the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR), and the conference leaders (through all games of Jan. 31, 2012):

1 Minnesota-Duluth
2 Boston University
3 Massachusetts-Lowell
4 Ferris State
5t Boston College
5t Merrimack
5t Ohio State
8 Michigan
9 Minnesota
10t Maine
10t Miami
12 Notre Dame
13 Northern Michigan
14t Denver
14t Union
16 North Dakota
31 Rochester Institute of Technology

Here are the current conference leaders based on winning percentage:

Atlantic Hockey: RIT
CCHA: Ferris State
ECAC Hockey: Union
Hockey East: Merrimack
WCHA: Minnesota

Notes

• Bracketology assumes that the season has ended and there are no more games to be played. i.e., the NCAA tournament starts tomorrow.

• Because there are an uneven amount of games played inside each conference, I will be using winning percentage, not points accumulated, to determine who the current leader in each conference is. This team is my assumed conference tournament champion.

Step one

From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.

We break ties in the PWR by looking at how the teams rank in the Ratings Percentage Index, and add in any current league leaders that are not currently in the top 16. The only team that is not is RIT.

From there, we can start looking at the ties and bubbles in a more detailed fashion.

The ties and bubbles consist of Boston College, Merrimack and Ohio State at 5, Maine and Miami at 10 and Denver and Union at 14.

We break all of our ties based upon the RPI.

Therefore the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:

1 Minnesota-Duluth
2 Boston University
3 Massachusetts-Lowell
4 Ferris State
5 Boston College
6 Merrimack
7 Ohio State
8 Michigan
9 Minnesota
10 Maine
11 Miami
12 Notre Dame
13 Northern Michigan
14 Denver
15 Union
16 RIT

Step two

Now it’s time to assign the seeds.

No. 1 seeds — Minnesota-Duluth, Boston University, Massachusetts-Lowell, Ferris State
No. 2 seeds — Boston College, Merrimack, Ohio State, Michigan
No. 3 seeds — Minnesota, Maine, Miami, Notre Dame
No. 4 seeds — Northern Michigan, Denver, Union, RIT

Step three

Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals.

No. 1 Minnesota-Duluth is placed in the West Regional in St. Paul.
No. 2 Boston University is placed in the Northeast Regional in Worcester.
No. 3 Massachusetts-Lowell is placed in the East Regional in Bridgeport.
No. 4 Ferris State is placed in the Midwest Regional in Green Bay.

Step four

Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intra-conference matchups if possible.

Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (unless you are a host school, in which case you must be assigned to your home regional).

If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships are played by No. 1 vs. No. 8, No. 2 vs. No. 7, No. 3 vs. No. 6 and No. 4 vs. No. 5.

So therefore:

No. 2 seeds

No. 8 Michigan is placed in No. 1 Minnesota-Duluth’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 7 Ohio State is placed in No. 2 Boston University’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 6 Merrimack is placed in No. 3 Massachusetts-Lowell’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 5 Boston College is placed in No. 4 Ferris State’s regional, the Midwest Regional.

No. 3 seeds

Our bracketing system has one regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16, another with 2, 7, 10, 15, another with 3, 6, 11, 14 and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.

But we have to place Minnesota first, as it is a host institution.

No. 9 Minnesota is placed in No. 8 Michigan’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 10 Maine is placed in No. 7 Ohio State’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 11 Miami is placed in No. 6 Merrimack’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 12 Notre Dame is placed in No. 5 Boston College’s regional, the Midwest Regional.

No. 4 seeds

One more time, taking No. 16 vs. No. 1, No. 15 vs. No. 2, etc.

No. 16 RIT is sent to No. 1 Minnesota-Duluth’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 15 Union is sent to No. 2 Boston University’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 14 Denver is sent to No. 3 Massachusetts-Lowell’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 13 Northern Michigan is sent to No. 4 Ferris State’s regional, the Midwest Regional.

The brackets as we have set them up:

West Regional:
RIT vs. Minnesota-Duluth
Minnesota vs. Michigan

Midwest Regional:
Northern Michigan vs. Ferris State
Notre Dame vs. Boston College

Northeast Regional:
Union vs. Boston University
Maine vs. Ohio State

East Regional:
Denver vs. Massachusetts-Lowell
Miami vs. Merrimack

Our first concern is avoiding intra-conference matchups. We have one in Northern Michigan vs. Ferris State.

To avoid this, we switch Northern Michigan with Denver.

Our brackets are now:

West Regional:
RIT vs. Minnesota-Duluth
Minnesota vs. Michigan

Midwest Regional:
Denver vs. Ferris State
Notre Dame vs. Boston College

Northeast Regional:
Union vs. Boston University
Maine vs. Ohio State

East Regional:
Northern Michigan vs. Massachusetts-Lowell
Miami vs. Merrimack

We now have a bracket that does not have any intra-conference matchups.

Can we make it better?

Attendance is always a concern.

If you take a look at the Midwest Regional, you may have a problem. The regional is in Green Bay, traditionally a WCHA territory. And while you do have three western teams there, only Denver is a WCHA school, and at the same time, you have Notre Dame and Ferris State.

So could you possibly make one switch?

Swap the matchup of RIT vs. Minnesota-Duluth and Denver vs. Ferris State in terms of location.

Does this make sense?

Let’s look at distance. Duluth is 254 miles to Green Bay. Duluth is 140 miles to St. Paul. That’s 114 extra miles, which can be considered negligible in the NCAA’s eyes.

How about the attendance issue?

St. Paul has Minnesota vs. Michigan right now. I would say that’s a full house draw right there.

Green Bay has no such matchup.

How about bracket integrity? You’ve gone and screwed this up now to a degree. You now have the number 4, 8, 9 and 14 seeds in St. Paul and the number 1, 5, 12 and 16 seeds in Green Bay.

So there’s a tough decision to be made here.

Do you throw out bracket integrity for the sake of thinking that putting Minnesota-Duluth in Green Bay will boost the Green Bay attendance number?

It’s a tough call, but in the end, I’m going to go with bracket integrity.

So my bracket does not change.

West Regional:
RIT vs. Minnesota-Duluth
Minnesota vs. Michigan

Midwest Regional:
Denver vs. Ferris State
Notre Dame vs. Boston College

Northeast Regional:
Union vs. Boston University
Maine vs. Ohio State

East Regional:
Northern Michigan vs. Massachusetts-Lowell
Miami vs. Merrimack

So that is it. My bracket for the week.

See you here next week for the next Bracketology.

Here’s a summary of everything that we have covered.

This week’s brackets

St. Paul
16 RIT vs. 1 Minnesota-Duluth
9 Minnesota vs. 8 Michigan

Green Bay
14 Denver vs. 4 Ferris State
12 Notre Dame vs. 5 Boston College

Bridgeport
13 Northern Michigan vs. 3 Massachusetts-Lowell
11 Miami vs. 6 Merrimack

Worcester
15 Union vs. 2 Boston University
10 Maine vs. 7 Ohio State

Conference breakdowns

CCHA — 6
HEA — 5
WCHA — 3
ECAC — 1
AHA — 1

On The Move

In: Maine, Union, RIT
Out: Michigan State, Cornell, Mercyhurst

Attendance woes?

Green Bay. But we addressed that earlier in the Bracketology.

Last week’s brackets

St. Paul
13 Minnesota vs. 4 Notre Dame
10 Massachusetts-Lowell vs. 7 Northern Michigan

Green Bay
14 Michigan State vs. 2 Minnesota-Duluth
12 Denver vs. 5 Michigan

Bridgeport
16 Mercyhurst vs. 3 Ohio State
11 Cornell vs. 6 Merrimack

Worcester
15 Miami vs. 1 Boston University
9 Boston College vs. 8 Ferris State

Interesting …

• All five conference leaders changed this week. It shows you how volatile the whole thing is.

We’re at that time of the year where one thing is on everyone’s minds.

Will my team make the NCAA tournament?

Those of you that are veterans of the college hockey scene know that it is all about the PairWise Rankings. This is USCHO’s numerical approach that simulates the way the NCAA Division I Men’s Ice Hockey Committee chooses the teams that make the NCAA tournament.

The criteria are tweaked every so often, often being every year lately, in order to give what the committee believes will be the best tournament.

This year the change that was made was to change the criteria relating to the record against common opponents.

Before this year it was calculated as a winning percentage and then compared — a basic question of who has a better winning record against common opponents.

This year, each winning percentage against each common opponent is added together and the highest number wins.

For more on this please check out our FAQ.

With that in mind, it’s time once again to do what we like to call Bracketology, college hockey style. It’s our weekly look at how I believe the NCAA tournament will wind up come selection time.

It’s a look into what are the possible thought processes behind selecting and seeding the NCAA tournament teams.

This is the first installment of our Bracketology, and we’ll be bringing you a new one every week until we make our final picks before the field is announced.

If you want to skip the inner workings and get to the results of the analysis, then click here.

Here are the facts:

• Sixteen teams are selected to participate in the national tournament.

• There are four regional sites (East — Bridgeport, Conn.; Northeast — Worcester, Mass.; Midwest — Green Bay, Wis.; West — St. Paul, Minn.)

• A host institution which is invited to the tournament plays in the regional for which it is the host, and cannot be moved. There are four host institutions this year: Yale in Bridgeport, Holy Cross in Manchester, Michigan Tech in Green Bay and Minnesota in St. Paul.

• Seedings will not be switched, as opposed to years past. To avoid undesirable first-round matchups, including intra-conference games (see below), teams will be moved among regionals, not reseeded.

Here are the NCAA’s guidelines on the matter, per a meeting of the championship committee:

In setting up the tournament, the committee begins with a list of priorities to ensure a successful tournament on all fronts including competitive equity, financial success and likelihood of playoff-type atmosphere at each regional site. For the model, the following is a basic set of priorities:

• The top four teams as ranked by the committee are the four No. 1 seeds and will be placed in the bracket so that if all four teams advance to the Men’s Frozen Four, the No. 1 seed will play the No. 4 seed and the No. 2 seed will play the No. 3 seed in the semifinals.

• Host institutions that qualify will be placed at home.

• No. 1 seeds are placed as close to home as possible in order of their ranking 1-4.

• Conference matchups in first round are avoided, unless five or more teams from one conference are selected, then the integrity of the bracket will be preserved.

• Once the five automatic qualifiers and 11 at-large teams are selected, the next step is to develop four groups from the committee’s ranking of 1-16. The top four teams are the No. 1 seeds. The next four are targeted as No. 2 seeds. The next four are No. 3 seeds and the last four are No. 4 seeds. These groupings will be referred to as “bands”.

Given these facts, here is the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR), and the conference leaders (through all games of Jan. 25, 2011):

1 Boston University
2 Minnesota-Duluth
3 Ohio State
4 Notre Dame
5 Michigan
6t Merrimack
6t Northern Michigan
6t Ferris State
9t Boston College
9t Massachusetts-Lowell
11 Cornell
12 Denver
13 Minnesota
14t Michigan State
14t Miami
16 Colorado College
– Mercyhurst

Here are the current conference leaders based on winning percentage:

Atlantic Hockey: Mercyhurst
CCHA: Ohio State
ECAC Hockey: Cornell
Hockey East: Boston University
WCHA: Minnesota-Duluth

Notes

• Bracketology assumes that the season has ended and there are no more games to be played. i.e., the NCAA tournament starts tomorrow.

• Because there are an uneven amount of games played inside each conference, I will be using winning percentage, not points accumulated, to determine who the current leader in each conference is. This team is my assumed conference tournament champion.

Step one

From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.

We break ties in the PWR by looking at how the teams rank in the Ratings Percentage Index, and add in any current league leaders that are not currently in the top 16. The only team that is not is Mercyhurst.

From there, we can start looking at the ties and bubbles in a more detailed fashion.

The ties and bubbles consist of Merrimack, Northern Michigan and Ferris State at 6, Boston College and Massachusetts-Lowell at 9 and Michigan State and Miami at 14.

We break all of our ties based upon the RPI.

Therefore the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:

1 Boston University
2 Minnesota-Duluth
3 Ohio State
4 Notre Dame
5 Michigan
6 Merrimack
7 Northern Michigan
8 Ferris State
9 Boston College
10 Massachusetts-Lowell
11 Cornell
12 Denver
13 Minnesota
14 Michigan State
15 Miami
16 Mercyhurst

Step two

Now it’s time to assign the seeds.

No. 1 seeds — Boston University, Minnesota-Duluth, Ohio State, Notre Dame
No. 2 seeds — Michigan, Merrimack, Northern Michigan, Ferris State
No. 3 seeds — Boston College, Massachusetts-Lowell, Cornell, Denver
No. 4 seeds — Minnesota, Michigan State, Miami, Mercyhurst

Step three

Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals.

No. 1 Boston University is placed in the Northeast Regional in Worcester.
No. 2 Minnesota-Duluth is placed in the West Regional in St. Paul.
No. 3 Ohio State is placed in the Midwest Regional in Green Bay.
No. 4 Notre Dame is placed in the East Regional in Bridgeport.

Step four

Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intra-conference matchups if possible.

Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (unless you are a host school, in which case you must be assigned to your home regional).

If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships are played by No. 1 vs. No. 8, No. 2 vs. No. 7, No. 3 vs. No. 6 and No. 4 vs. No. 5.

So therefore:

No. 2 seeds

No. 8 Ferris State is placed in No. 1 Boston University’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 7 Northern Michigan is placed in No. 2 Minnesota-Duluth’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 6 Merrimack is placed in No. 3 Ohio State’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 5 Michigan is placed in No. 4 Notre Dame’s regional, the East Regional.

No. 3 seeds

Our bracketing system has one regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16, another with 2, 7, 10, 15, another with 3, 6, 11, 14 and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.

No. 9 Boston College is placed in No. 8 Ferris State’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 10 Massachusetts-Lowell is placed in No. 7 Northern Michigan’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 11 Cornell is placed in No. 6 Merrimack’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 12 Denver is placed in No. 5 Michigan’s regional, the East Regional.

No. 4 seeds

One more time, taking No. 16 vs. No. 1, No. 15 vs. No. 2, etc.

But we have to place Minnesota first, as it is a host institution.

No. 13 Minnesota is sent to No. 2 Minnesota-Duluth’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 16 Mercyhurst is sent to No. 1 Boston University’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 15 Miami is sent to No. 3 Ohio State’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 14 Michigan State is sent to No. 4 Notre Dame’s regional, the East Regional.

The brackets as we have set them up:

West Regional:
Minnesota vs. Minnesota-Duluth
Massachusetts-Lowell vs. Northern Michigan

Midwest Regional:
Miami vs. Ohio State
Cornell vs. Merrimack

Northeast Regional:
Mercyhurst vs. Boston University
Boston College vs. Ferris State

East Regional:
Michigan State vs. Notre Dame
Denver vs. Michigan

Our first concern is avoiding intra-conference matchups. We have a few, so let’s solve them.

Let’s look at the intra-conference matchups that involve the No. 1 seeds.

We have Minnesota vs. Minnesota-Duluth, Miami vs. Ohio State and Michigan State vs. Notre Dame.

Therefore, we must break all of them.

There are two CCHA teams that are No. 4 seeds and two CCHA teams that are No. 1 seeds. Therefore, they are moved around to avoid playing each other.

So we now have Miami vs. Boston University, Michigan State vs. Minnesota-Duluth, Mercyhurst vs. Ohio State and Minnesota vs. Notre Dame.

Why is this? Because Minnesota is the highest No. 4 seed and Notre Dame is the lowest No. 1 seed. That leaves no choice for Ohio State as to whom it plays, meaning Mercyhurst.

And then we have the case of whom Boston University plays. It will get the CCHA team with the lowest RPI. In this case, that is Miami. That leaves Michigan State to face Minnesota-Duluth.

There will be those that will scream that Boston University gets screwed here, but, this is how the process works. The criteria are laid out plain and simply and the rules will be followed.

So, along with this, because Minnesota has to play in St. Paul, we need to swap Minnesota-Duluth’s site. Notre Dame moves to St. Paul and we would like to keep Boston University in Worcester. That means that Minnesota-Duluth will now move to Green Bay, and in turn, Ohio State moves to Bridgeport.

Our brackets are now:

West Regional:
Minnesota vs. Notre Dame
Massachusetts-Lowell vs. Northern Michigan

Midwest Regional:
Michigan State vs. Minnesota-Duluth
Cornell vs. Merrimack

Northeast Regional:
Miami vs. Boston University
Boston College vs. Ferris State

East Regional:
Mercyhurst vs. Ohio State
Denver vs. Michigan

We now have a bracket that does not have any intra-conference matchups.

Can we make it better?

Attendance is always a concern. We have an East-East matchup in the Midwest Regional that we could easily swap with a West-West matchup in the East Regional.

That means that we move the Cornell-Merrimack matchup to Bridgeport and move the Denver-Michigan matchup to Green Bay.

Makes sense to me.

So what do we have now?

West Regional:
Minnesota vs. Notre Dame
Massachusetts-Lowell vs. Northern Michigan

Midwest Regional:
Michigan State vs. Minnesota-Duluth
Denver vs. Michigan

Northeast Regional:
Miami vs. Boston University
Boston College vs. Ferris State

East Regional:
Mercyhurst vs. Ohio State
Cornell vs. Merrimack

This, by all means looks like a good bracket.

So that is it. My bracket for the week.

See you here next week for the next Bracketology.

Here’s a summary of everything that we have covered.

This week’s brackets

St. Paul
13 Minnesota vs. 4 Notre Dame
10 Massachusetts-Lowell vs. 7 Northern Michigan

Green Bay
14 Michigan State vs. 2 Minnesota-Duluth
12 Denver vs. 5 Michigan

Bridgeport
16 Mercyhurst vs. 3 Ohio State
11 Cornell vs. 6 Merrimack

Worcester
15 Miami vs. 1 Boston University
9 Boston College vs. 8 Ferris State

Conference breakdowns

CCHA — 7
HEA — 4
WCHA — 3
ECAC — 1
AHA — 1

Attendance woes?

None that I see.

Last week’s brackets (the 2011 NCAA tournament)

St. Louis
14 Colorado College vs. 3 Boston College
12 Nebraska-Omaha vs. 5 Michigan

Green Bay
15 Rensselaer vs. 2 North Dakota
10 Western Michigan vs. 7 Denver

Bridgeport
16 Air Force vs. 1 Yale
9 Minnesota-Duluth vs. 8 Union

Manchester
13 New Hampshire vs. 4 Miami
11 Notre Dame vs. 6 Merrimack

Interesting …

• So let’s see, we have both BC and BU in Worcester and Miami here as well? If you take a look at the NCAA tournament, one would think Miami is the annual host school for the Northeast Regional …

• Along the same lines we have Michigan and Michigan State in Green Bay.

An old friend of mine, a retired sports information director, beats everyone on his list to the punch by sending out his Christmas cards early. He beat his own record this year: I received his card yesterday. (Thanks, Roger!)

We’ve sent out our Christmas card to statistical fanatics a bit early, too.

It’s way too early for these numbers to mean anything — 11 teams haven’t even played yet as of this writing — but the 2011-12 USCHO.com PairWise Rankings are up and running. (If you’re so inclined, you can also check out the RPI and the unofficial-for-entertainment-purposes-only KRACH.)

The USCHO.com PairWise has been updated to reflect changes for the 2011-12 season. The main change is in common opponents; rather than totaling all wins, losses and ties between common opponents of two schools and calculating the overall winning percentage from that, the winning percentage against each team is calculated and then added together. This is so that a team which plays a weak opponent five times and goes 5-0, for example, in comparison to another which plays that team once and goes 1-0 would not gain an advantage. Each would have a 1.000 percentage against that third team.

The effect of this is to lessen the advantage numerically that one team might have against another, especially in cases of unbalanced league schedules or in comparisons between teams in two different conferences. For example, last season North Dakota downed Michigan Tech four times while Michigan beat MTU once. In last year’s calculation, the wins for the Fighting Sioux counted four times as much as they would under this year’s formula.

Anyhow, the PWR is up, running … and (for a few weeks yet) absolutely meaningless. Don’t let that stop you from having fun with it, though. We probably won’t check in with any bracketology prognostications or cogitations for a while. USCHO.com will, however, keep you posted should other changes or tweaks occur.

Finally we have a bracket and finally I nailed the bracket on the money.

But, this one was relatively easy to gather from all the information out there.

I think the committee walked into the room and five minutes later they were finished.

I have no complaints at all.  The process worked exactly like the manual described, exactly like how the selection process was put out there.

Fans can complain that the system is broken, that teams got jobbed, that some don’t deserve this or that, but in the end, given the rules that were put in place, the procedure that was put in place and the guidelines as to how to construct the tournament bracket, the committee did it to the exact letter of those rules, procedures and guidelines.

Kudos to them, kudos to the fans for understanding the process and getting it right, and thanks to all my frenemies out there that also predicted the same brackets.

It goes to show you that the system, even if you think it’s broken, works.

The system that is put out there works so well that someone like me, who now lives in Singapore, and has seen a total of four hockey games this season, can look at the numbers and determine the exact field of the NCAA Tournament.  I don’t even have to be in the country to predict the tournament field, that’s how well the procedure is laid out and how it should be followed to determine the field.

See you at the Regionals!

Our field is set. Air Force and Rensselaer get the final two spots.

The teams in the field:

Yale

North Dakota

Boston College

Miami

Michigan

Merrimack

Denver

Union

Minnesota-Duluth

Western Michigan

Notre Dame

Nebraska-Omaha

New Hampshire

Colorado College

Rensselaer

Air Force

There you have it.

Bracket prediction to come.

With Michigan and Dartmouth’s wins in the third-place games, the picture becomes very clear.

There’s one spot left, as UNO and CC have now clinched their places in the tournament.

It comes down to Cornell or Rensselaer.

A Cornell win puts the Big Red into the tournament, a Cornell loss puts Rensselaer into the tournament.

Let’s get on to the nitty gritty shall we?

Here is what I believe:

Yale, North Dakota, Boston College, Miami, Denver, Merrimack, Michigan, Union, Minnesota-Duluth, Notre Dame, Western Michigan, New Hampshire and either RIT or Air Force  are all in.

That’s 13 teams.

There are three spots left out there, and those three spots will go to three of Nebraska-Omaha, Colorado College, Rensselaer or Cornell.

If Cornell wins the ECAC, one of these three teams will be out, and it all depends on other results.

The key games to look out for to see who gets in:

Cornell-Yale.  Obviously a Cornell win puts one of those three teams out.  Which one?  It all depends. Assuming a Cornell win, then we have…

Colgate-Dartmouth.  A Dartmouth win here seems to put CC into the tournament.  A Colgate win here almost puts Rensselaer into the tournament.

Notre Dame-Michigan.  A Notre Dame win here seems to hurt UNO.  It hurts UNO even more should WMU win.

Three of four number one seeds have been claimed.

Yale, North Dakota and Boston College have all claimed number one seeds.

We can go a little further and say that Yale will be in Bridgeport and North Dakota will most likely be in Green Bay (there are strange situations which might not put North Dakota in Green Bay, see below).  Boston College, we’ll just have to wait and see about the Eagles and where they will be.

The other number one seed will go to either Michigan, Miami, Denver of Merrimack.

Here’s an interesting situation that may come up.

New Hampshire can fall to a number four seed.  If that’s the case and Merrimack gets the last number one seed, then you have two Hockey East schools that will get a number one seed.  But neither of them will be playing in the East.

Yale has to go to Bridgeport.  UNH has to go to Manchester, and as a number four seed, the Wildcats won’t be facing a Hockey East school.  Thus, BC and Merrimack have to wind up in the West and Midwest Regionals.  And North Dakota will come to Manchester to play New Hampshire.

This can also move Boston College out of Manchester as well to either Green Bay or St. Louis.  If UNH is a number four seed, then this will be the case.

I think it will be difficult, if not impossible to get Maine into the tournament.

After the afternoon games, Maine sits at number 18 in the PairWise.

It means that Maine has to pass at least three teams to get to 15.

Let’s take a look at who Maine might be able to pass.

Teams that can still lose twice, Maine can pass those teams.  That would be Dartmouth and Western Michigan.

But Maine still needs to pass one more team.  All the other teams that it can pass have at least a four comparison lead on Maine, except for BU.

So can Maine find that last team to pass?

With Bemidji State losing, that collective sigh of relief you heard came from Nebraska-Omaha, Rensselaer, Boston University and Maine.

One less chance of someone outside the Top 16 getting an autobid.

Perhaps a few more sighs coming in the next hour or two after Colgate and Northeastern results.