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ECAC Hockey picks: Week 4

Last week: 3-4-2
Overall: 8-13-3

Seems hard to believe it’s already week four of the season, doesn’t it?  With all the Ivy teams starting play, this weekend marks the largest slate of games thus far, with only RPI and St. Lawrence out of action.

Here’s a quick trivia question in honor of  the Ivy teams kicking off play: Cornell is 16-1-3 in exhibition games since 2000. Which goalie got the only win against the Big Red in that span?  See below for the answer.

I’ll be at both Union games this weekend, so follow along: @NateOwen41

Friday, Oct. 26

Dartmouth vs. Yale (Ivy Shootout at Brown)
Goalie is the major theme for both the Big Green and Bulldogs, as neither enters the season with a set No. 1, and neither coach has tipped his hand as to which of his tenders, if any, is the frontrunner.   Regardless, Yale has won their last ten games against Dartmouth.  4 p.m. Yale 4, Dartmouth 3

Princeton at Brown (Ivy Shootout)
Just like their counterparts in the opener, neither the Tigers or Bears enter the year with a clear-cut frontrunner in net. Princeton should finally be healthy, and I think their top-end talent at forward give thems the edge.  7 p.m. Princeton 5, Brown 3

Colorado College at  Cornell
These two teams met last January in Colorado, with Cornell heading back east with a win and tie. It’s the season opener for the Big Red, while the No. 19 Tigers enter with a 3-1 record, including a sweep of Clarkson two weeks ago. Season openers can be dicey in terms of flow and execution, but a veteran Cornell  team should settle in quickly.  7 p.m. Cornell 3, Colorado College 1

Niagara at Clarkson

The Golden Knights are still looking for their first win, checking in at 0-3 thus far. The Purple Eagles opened the season on the wrong end of a 10-2 shellacking by Colgate, but managed three points against Michigan State last week. 7 p.m. Clarkson 5, Niagara 3

RIT at Colgate
Colgate is 7-1 all-time against the Tigers, who picked up a nice out-of-conference win at Michigan several weeks ago. But RIT’s defense has been suspect, as they’ve allowed 4.5 goals per-game, not including last night’s 6-4 loss to Robert Morris. I like a young Raiders team that is plenty fresh after having last weekend off. 7:05 p.m. Colgate 4, RIT 2

Union at American International College
This game is a bit of a homecoming for Dutchmen head coach Rick Bennett, a Springfield native who won the Western Massachusetts high school championship in 1984 and played two seasons for the Springfield Indians/Falcons.  While these teams met at Messa last year, Union hasn’t traveled to AIC since 1989, when both programs were D-III.  The Yellow Jackets beat Penn State in the Nittany Lion’s first D-1 game, but  haven’t won since. 7:05 p.m.  Union 5, AIC 1

Saturday, Oct. 27

Yale vs. Princeton (Ivy Shootout championship)
Host Brown plays in the 7 p.m. time slot regardless, so that pushes the championship game to the afternoon, should my prediction hold true.  These two met in the opening round of the playoffs last year, with the Bulldogs hanging on in a high-scoring three game series.   4 p.m. Yale 5, Princeton 4

Dartmouth at Brown (Ivy Shootout consolation)
Both these teams were hard to get a handle on last year; Brown put together early stretches of solid play, while Dartmouth struggled with injuries. I’ll take the healthy Big Green. 7 p.m. Dartmouth 4, Brown 3

Bentley at Harvard
The Crimson are the last ECAC team to open regular-season play when they host the 1-1 Falcons. Lots of offensive talent in this one, as Bentley’s Brett Gensler has six points already after posting 50 last season. Harvard lost Alex Killorn, but brings back plenty in the form of Marshall Everson, Danny Biega et al. in what many feel could be a breakout year for the Crimson. 7 p.m.   Harvard 4, Bentley 2

Colorado College at Cornell

I’ve been calling for a lot of splits early and that’s come back to haunt me. I  think the Big Red pull off the season-opening sweep here.  7 p.m. Cornell 3, Colorado College 0

Quinnipiac vs. Colgate (Cape Cod Classic-Hyannis, Mass.)

I’ve spent all but a few of the last twenty summers down the Cape, so forgive me if the idea of the region hosting a  college hockey game seems a bit strange.  These teams have met 24 times since 2005-06, which is the most for the Raiders against any opponent in that span. Colgate knocked Quinnipiac out of the semifinals last year, but this is a much different Raiders team, and I think a Bobcats squad that’s been solid defensively so far should take this non-conference meeting. 7 p.m. Quinnipiac 3, Colgate 1

Niagara at Clarkson
I see a split, with the Purple Eagles taking the second game. 7:30 p.m. Niagara 4, Clarkson 1

Union at Connecticut
The Dutchmen last faced the Huskies almost two years to the date of Saturday’s game – a 3-3 tie in Schenectady.  Their last trip to Storrs was a 7-0 win over the Huskies in the consolation game of the UConn Holiday Classic. The Huskies have improved since then, but so have the Dutchmen. 8 p.m. Union 4, Connecticut 1

Trivia answer: Andy Iles made 39 saves for the U.S. Under-18 team in a 3-2 victory over the Big Red at Lynah on Oct. 24, 2009.  Credit goes to Cornell SID Brandon Thomas for including that factoid in the weekly game notes.

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  • Toothpaste guy

    I’d rather have us lose to Dartmouth than RPI in the NCAAs. They don’t deserve it.

  • Guest

    Jayson Moy, you are such a homer that your blogs become more painful to read with each passing day. Have you ever been to a college hockey game more than 100 miles from your comfy little world?

    • After Further Review

      You could put the same things into the Pairwise Predictor and get the same results… why does it matter where Jason watches his games? It’s all in the numbers. Why is that so hard to comprehend? Wait, comprehend means understand… just trying to help! If it’s too painful, DON’T READ!

      • Bill

        AFR, there’s a lot more hockey than the ECAC and HE, which is basically all he writes about. That would be fine if it were a blog devoted to just those conferences, but its a Bracketology blog that implies that he has some insight into the national college hockey scene, which he obviously does not. Your all caps comment was nice. Are you 12?

        • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_FGASRVNR66QPCXQJL5KOCJKYT4 R.A.

          But it wasn’t obvious until just yesterday that any of the WCHA teams would be on the bubble, other than CC. Why should a bracketology column focus very much on the teams that are already in?

          • GeauxSioux

            Well said.

          • Rob

            The comment made were not a reaction to this specific blog but his blogs over the last several weeks

          • Matt

            Who cares about some column written weeks ago? Anyone who checked in to *this* column was here to see what the bracketology looks like, now. That’s really not such a hard concept to grasp, is it?

  • After Further Review

    This blog simply states who is in and who is out and why. It mentions ECAC because it has the implications on who makes it much more than any of the other conferences. It has how the CCHA games may affect UNO too. Basically, the WCHA game means pretty much nothing as to who makes the tourney, just possibly seeds.
    I don’t always agree with what is written on here or CHN, but this one is easy, plug in who wins and loses.
    Yup, 12, times 3 or 4.

    • After Further Review

      By the way, it wouldn’t let me hit reply to you, “Guest.”

    • Guest

      The comments made were not a reaction to this specific blog but his blogs over the last several weeks. Why do I have a funny feeling that AFR and Moy are the same person?

      • After Further Review

        Nope… I do agree with you about some of the other posts and I did make some comments too, especially when Moy decided to re-do his bracket because everybody was upset. I do agree, he writes more about the east than the west, but I usually decide not to bother to read them.
        We are not the same, I am just a college hockey fan that attends a regional and the Frozen Four every year.

  • Matt

    why the silly attacks on Jason? He’s just stating what the scenarios are. It is useful. Until his post, I thought it was just RPI on the bubble depending on the Cornell-Yale result, hadn’t thought that the ECAC consolation game in tandem with the CCHA game effectively put UNO and CC on the bubble as well. The attacks by “Guest” are incoherent, and should stop.

  • DU_Fan

    The WCHA game means nothing, will not effect the seeds. ND will remain a #1 seed and DU will remain a #2 seed. Sort of like this blog, irrelevant. Let’s get real and have some hard and fast rules on how teams are sent to Regionals. Put them strictly by PWR rankings. Eliminate the Selection Committee and put 1/8/9/16, 2/7/10/15, 3/6/11/14, and 4/5/12/13 in each bracket. Only exceptions would be designated host teams or those within a certain mile radius of a regional. I know this would never happen as it would be too UNBIASED and would remove the current, sometimes valid, arguements.

    • Simon

      Point is ..UND wins it all!

      • DU_Fan

        You really are an idiot. All you are doing is proving the point why people hate the Sioux and their fans. As a true hockey and WCHA fan, you are just wrong and cause more anymosity to those who support western hockey. Whether you want to admit it or not all leagues have good and bad teams; including the ECAC, HE, and the CCHA.Just shut up and write on blogs reserved for 12 year olds. Next time you have a coherent thought will be the first time.

        • SIOUX

          WCHA top conference top to bottom by far.

          • booooring

            And the WCHA will get the most teams into the tournament. What’s your point?

  • Jimdahl

    I ran simulations of all the remaining possibilities last night and compiled the following notes on how Colgate-Dartmouth, Notre Dame-Michigan, and Western Michigan-Miami affect which teams gets left home if Cornell wins. Warning, the possibility of ties in the two consolation games makes it ugly…

    http://blog.siouxsports.com/2011/03/18/ncaa-tournament-field-shaping-up/

  • Dave Hendrickson

    I’d like to counter some of the venom in these comments and thank Jayson for his hard work and insights. This column might be termed irrelevant for fans of those teams that are already locked in, but it sure isn’t for those on the bubble. And to call him a homer because he began this edition with the ECAC is absurd. The bubble discussion HAS to begin with Cornell winning the ECAC because without that the bubble teams are all in.

    • bracketology

      You’re making sense. You have no business here!

  • Guest

    I am with the Toothpaste guy, if RPI makes this thing after their epic collapse, the pairwise system needs to go. No way they deserve it. And ff they get in, I hope they draw North Dakota and get blown out. And I am an ECAC guy. It pains me to say this, but go Cornell and go Dartmouth.

    • Matt

      The pairwise system is based on the full season, so really RPI’s collapse matters only to the extent that it impacts their W-L record.

      And, not to overstate the obvious, but the same thing happened to Yale last year — epic collapse against Brown… And then they went out and beat North Dakota in the tournament.

      RPI doesn’t need to make any apologies if they end up in the field, no more than UNO, certainly.