The Bulldogs, who have lost a number of talented forwards in recent seasons, lead the nation with 1.53 goals allowed per game.
Welcome to the final awful predictions of the 2013-14 ECAC Hockey season. I’ll be your guide on our final nauseating spin through Prognostication Pass, but be sure to bone up with Nate Owen’s quotes and insight in this week’s ECAC Hockey column. I’m just here to ice the proverbial cake.
By the way, if you don’t care about the picks, skip to the end for some bonus material.
Nate: Typically, Brian and I have gone solo each weeks with the picks. But what the heck; it’s the championship weekend, so I’ll jump in.
Friday, March 21
1 Union vs 4 Cornell 4:07
Cornell will be without senior and 20-point center Dustin Mowrey, and coach Mike Schafer admitted in this week’s column (link above) that the Big Red will be unlikely to “pump in four or five goals”. He ain’t kidding: The Red have only scored 18 goals in their last 11 games (6-5), and they were actually out-scored by Clarkson (5-4) in last weekend’s three-game series. For Cornell to win, the defense and senior goalie Andy Iles will have to be absolutely at their best. Meanwhile, Union has scored the same 18 goals in less than half the time: The Dutchmen did it in their last five games (5-0). The defense and both goalies combined to shut out four of Union’s last six opponents. So, Union is playing very well, and Cornell is playing with barely the slimmest margin for error.
To sum up what you’ve already presumed, I have a hard time seeing Cornell pull it out against a team as deep, hot, and consistent as Union. Dutchmen extinguish the Big Red, 4-1.
Nate: Michigan’s loss in the Big 10 tournament Thursday bumped the Big Red up to 15th in the PairWise, and a loss will lead to some nervous scoreboard watching over the weekend. It will be interesting to see how Cornell adapts to the big ice; the Big Red are 12-6-1 on Olympic Rinks since Mike Schafer took over as head coach. The Dutchmen enter the weekend red-hot; Union’s eleven-game unbeaten streak is tied for the best in the nation. I think Union advances to it’s third-straight ECAC Championship game.
2 Colgate vs 3 Quinnipiac 7:37
As noted in my column two weeks back as well as in Nate’s Wednesday write-up, Colgate has been a remarkably healthy team. This builds consistency and chemistry of course, and the Raiders’ 12-3-3 record in 2014 bears that out. The question mark on Colgate is on the front end: Since February, the Raiders have been hot and cold offensively, only once putting up three or more in consecutive games. As for their opponents, the Bobcats are – statistically speaking – one of the top teams in the nation, and they probably could have been even better had senior Jordan Samuels-Thomas not missed six games due to injury. It may seem odd to pin such importance on QU’s fifth-leading scorer, but the offense simply performs better when “JST” is in. His presence is either tremendous or terrifying depending on your affiliation, because he brings the boom as well as anybody else in the league. That influence truly swings the balance of power when his line is on the ice, as opposing puck-carriers feel a lot more pressure… which gives QU a lot more puck possession. In case you were wondering, QU beat Colgate 7-2 in Hamilton – with JST – in the fall; without him in last month, the Bobcats fell to the Raiders 3-1 in Hamden.
Don’t get me wrong: Samuels-Thomas is not the be-all, end-all of QU’s success, but the Bobcats are a different team with him in the lineup. A much better, much stronger, much more confident, and much scarier team. I like that team. A lot. Bobcats to the finals, 4-2.
Nate: I like Quinnipiac a lot, and wouldn’t be surprised to see them in Philadelphia next month. But, I like what Colgate has done in the second half. This is a young team, but they seem to be getting more and more confident as the year progresses. I might change my mind sometime during the four-hour drive to Lake Placid tomorrow, but I’m taking Colgate.
Saturday, March 22
1 Union vs 3 Quinnipiac? 7:37
If this indeed winds up being the title-tilt tandem, I just don’t know what to say, other than DO NOT MISS THIS GAME. It should be the dooziest of doozies. These teams split a pair of incredibly entertaining games: 6-4 Union in Schenectady was frantic and frenetic; QU’s 2-1 home win was an exemplar of solid defense and excellent goaltending. Ergo, I really don’t know what to expect… I suppose the traditional first-period feel-out, where neither side presses much, is likely; after all, a title is at stake between two teams that have already punched their NCAA tickets. At some point though, one of the many gifted playmakers on the ice will find enough space on the big sheet to test the keeper… and then we have a game. The Bobcats have better special teams than the Dutchmen, but Union goalie Colin Stevens has significantly better numbers than Q’s Michael Garteig. Honestly, those are the only major differences or edges I can identify. If this ends up being a special-teams battle – where the refs aren’t afraid to call penalties – edge goes to Quinnipiac; if the stripes swallow their whistles, I’d give Union the advantage.
Given that it’s the championship game, and I have to make a pick, I’m going to guess a low-penalty slugfest. JST aside, Union will like the five-on-five game against QU way more than playing the PP-PK game. Dutchmen, 3-2… I think!?
Nate: While I differed with Brian in the Colgate/Quinnipiac game, I’m agreeing with him here. Union over Colgate for the school’s third-straight Whitelaw Cup. A loss might not necessarily end the Raiders season; they could stand to get an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament, depending on how the rest of the conference championships shape up.
Nate and I will be in Lake Placid of course, and at some point this weekend we hope to sit down with ECAC Hockey commissioner Steve Hagwell specifically to ask him your questions. Therefore, submit some questions! You’ve got a few ways to do this: email me (firstname.lastname@example.org), Tweet me, or leave queries in the comments below.
Don’t miss our coverage this weekend: We will chat live with you folks through each game on our CoverItLive chat rooms, plus features and recaps for each contest. Come, watch the game with your laptop open and keep us company.
ECAC’s final four is set
Congratulations to Union, Colgate, Quinnipiac and Cornell for their quarterfinal wins. Without further ado, Friday’s pairings:
(1) Union vs. (4) Cornell: 4:07 Union swept the season series
(2) Colgate vs. (3) Quinnipiac: 7:37 The teams split the season series
As wild as this league can be, it’s not so rare to see the four top teams advance to the conference’s final weekend: It happened just two years ago with Union, Harvard, Colgate, and Cornell. (1) Union edged (3) Harvard in the title game for its second Whitelaw Cup; the Dutchmen are gunning for No. 3 this weekend.
For eight ECAC programs, golf season has begun again:
• St. Lawrence
I wasn’t sold on Yale in the immediate aftermath of its Saturday elimination loss at Quinnipiac, but the Bulldogs have since fallen from 18th to 20th and are unlikely to move up the five or six spots necessary without, y’know, playing any more hockey.
The four remaining contenders are a mixed bag of NCAA shoo-ins and bubble-riders:
• Colgate and Cornell are 15-16 in the PairWise, respectively. Neither team can afford a semifinal loss, and it could very well be the case that only a league title would elevate either team to NCAA tournament qualification. Remember, there is no third-place game this year for better or worse (better, in my opinion), so there is even more at stake in Friday’s contests.
• Union and Quinnipiac – ranked third and sixth in the PairWise this morning – are all but assured NCAA berths. That said, even if we pretended that the league title doesn’t mean anything – and it definitely does for both programs – the Dutchmen and Bobcats would still be competing for more advantageous seeds, draws, and regional placements in the national tourney. So there’s that.
While we’re at it, let’s open the floor to bracket possibilities: Can anyone find a scenario in which Cornell or Colgate makes the NCAA field without winning twice this weekend? Use our handy-dandy PairWise Predictor and let me know using the comments section below! I look forward to playing around with it myself, as should all of you. It’s some good clean fun.
Notes ‘n stuff
• Broadcast notes, per ECAC Hockey’s tournament fan guide:
ECAC Hockey has partnered with Fox College Sports (FCS) to televise the 2014 semifinals and championship game March 21-22 at the 1980 Rink – Herb Brooks Arena, Lake Placid N.Y. Production shall be arranged by USA World Events, LLC.
Eric Frede will be the play-by-play announcer with Cap Raeder providing color commentary and Sonny Waltrous on the sideline.
Games will be on DirecTV as well. The channel location will be release the week of the championship.
FCS Atlantic on all other cable subscribers.
Following is an FCS channel finder to locate availability in your area.
ECAC Hockey first-round and quarterfinal tournament games will be available for viewing by a global audience and be aired through www.ecachockey.com and America ONE Sports.
ECAC Hockey tournament games will be available for viewing by a global audience and be aired through www.ecachockey.com as well as http://www.americaonesports.com/partner_members.asp?id=407. Fans can watch all games from the ECAC Hockey tournaments on mobile devices as well as standard PCs and Macs. The games will be available on iOS devices as well as Androids.
Fans can either purchase a game for $9 (US) for viewing directly on a mobile device or purchase for viewing on a standard computer and add the mobile option for an extra dollar.
• As a reminder, this is the ECAC’s second go-’round in Lake Placid: The championship weekend was held here for 10 years before relocating to Albany for eight years, then Atlantic City for three. The ice surface is, understandably, Olympic-sized (200 x 100 feet) rather than NHL-sized (200 x 85)… all 12 league schools play their home games on NHL sheets.
• Union is looking to become the first back-to-back-to-back Whitelaw Cup-winner since Boston University won it four times in a row, between 1974-77.
• Commissioner Steve Hagwell has a conference call scheduled later today to discuss ticket sales thus far, fan buses, and related matters, so check back later for updates on that front. For the record, the ticket prices are set as such:
ALL-SESSION TICKET PRICES
Adult = $50
Junior/Senior = $40
*Students = $20
SINGLE-SESSION TICKET PRICES
Adult = $30
Junior/Senior = $25
*Students = $10
*Discounted Students Tickets will be available on campuses for the participating schools for the championship and at a designated student window at the Olympic Center Box Office.
Adult Ages: 13-64 — Junior Ages: 12 & Under — Senior Ages: 65 & Over
A limited number of special all-session Premium Seats are available by calling 518-523-3330 with access to the venue’s Hospitality Center.
PREMIUM ALL-SESSION TICKET PRICES
Adult = $175
Junior/Senior = $130
PREMIUM SINGLE-SESSION TICKET PRICES
Adult = $100
Junior/Senior = $85
Groups of 20 or more please call 518-523-3330 to qualify for a discount on any session.
Bonus section: Signings
Signing season has begun, coincidental with golf season, as it happens.
• After initially believing that Yale senior forward Kenny Agostino had signed with Calgary – then questioning/retracting that info – it has since been announced that indeed, the New Jersey sniper has inked a pro contract with the Flames, who acquired his rights from Pittsburgh in last season’s blockbuster Jarome Iginla deal.
Any I’ve missed? Let me know in the comments section, or through Twitter.
It’s the second week of the playoffs in ECAC Hockey, with four berths in the championship weekend at Lake Placid on the line. Each series is a best-of-three, with all games starting at 7 p.m.
No. 10 Dartmouth at No. 1 Union
Season series: Union 2-0.
The Big Green were the only lower-seeded team to advance past the first round, using three third-period goals to beat Rensselaer last Sunday. Top-seeded Union is looking for its third straight Whitelaw Cup, and owns the nation’s longest unbeaten streak (8-0-1). The Dutchmen also haven’t lost at home in ten games. Dartmouth has shown plenty of life the last month or so, but it’s tough to go against the body of the work Union has put together this season. Union in three
No. 8 St. Lawrence at No. 2 Colgate
Season series: Colgate 2-0
This is the third time in the last five seasons these teams have met in the playoffs, with St. Lawrence holding an 8-5 edge all-time in the postseason against Colgate. The Raiders defense and goaltending sparked a second-half surge that propelled them into second place, while the Saints’ defense and goaltending were black marks most of the season. Still, St. Lawrence played better down the stretch, and swept Brown at home last weekend. Both teams have dangerous players on offense, and can push the pace up the ice. Saint Lawrence’s Greg Carey hasn’t scored as much lately, but the senior forward has the ability to take over game, while Colgate’s Tyson Spink has six goals in five career games against SLU. The Saints ended Colgate’s season last year in the opening-round; can the Raiders return the favor? I think they will. Colgate in three.
No. 6 Yale at No. 3 Quinnipiac
Season series: Quinnipiac, 1-0-1
It’s an early rematch of last year’s national title game and the ECAC’s third-place game. A Yale loss would likely end any chance of the Bulldogs repeating at national champions, while a win by Quinnipiac would send the Bobcats to their second straight championship weekend. QU has dealt with some injuries recently, most notably forward Jordan Samuels-Thomas and defenseman Dan Federico. Bobcats coach Rand Pecknold doesn’t comment on injuries, so there’s few updates on Samuels-Thomas or Federico. Yale’s defense has been strong this season, while freshman Alex Lyon has improved in goal as the year has progressed. I’m taking the Bobcats, because I think they’re a little deeper at forward and also had a chance to get healthy over the bye. Quinnipiac in 3
No. 5 Clarkson at No. 4 Cornell
Season series: 1-1
While Quinnipiac/Yale and Colgate/St. Lawrence should features a lot of wide-open play, look for a tough, physical series between the Golden Knights and Big Red. That’s not to say each team doesn’t have their fair share of skilled players, but both are good at winning battles to the puck and playing along the boards. Each team also has a lot of talent on the back end, and size through the lineup. I think the difference is in goal. The Big Red’s Andy Iles quietly had a very good regular season (2.20, .920), and is better than the Golden Knights’ Steve Perry or Greg Lewis. Cornell in three
Two of the four series in the ECAC went to three games this weekend, with Clarkson and Dartmouth both winning Sunday to advance. The Big Green were the only road team to win this weekend, rallying for a 5-4 win against Rensselaer. It was the first time Dartmouth won when trailing after two periods in almost two years.
Here are the upcoming second-round series, including a national title game rematch in Hamden.
No. 10 Dartmouth at No. 1 Union
No. 8 St. Lawrence at No. 2 Colgate
No.6 Yale at No. 3 Quinnipiac
No. 5 Clarkson at No. 4 Cornell
Clarkson advances; RPI’s struggles continue
The Golden Knights hadn’t won an ECAC playoff series in seven years. That streak appeared to in danger of continuing after No. 12 Princeton won in overtime Friday. But Clarkson rolled 4-0 in Game 2, and then edged the Tigers 3-2 in the deciding game. Sunday’s game was the Golden Knights’ 20th win of the season, the first time the program has reached that mark since the 2007-08 season.
While Clarkson will make the trip south to Ithaca to face Cornell in round 2, the Engineers end the season with another disappointing home playoff defeat.
RPI hasn’t won a playoff series in Troy since 2004, when the Engineers swept Princeton in the opening round.
Bulldogs headed to Washington
Yale’s longest road trip this week won’t be for a game. The Bulldogs are set to head to the White House Monday afternoon to be recognized for the program’s first national title last season. They’ll be recognized by President Obama along with Minnesota, last year’s women’s championship. The event is open to the press and will streamed live on www.whitehouse.gov/live.
It’s the end of the line for Harvard, RPI, Princeton and Brown. None of these teams are in any sort of position for an at-large bid, meaning the long offseason begins for the players and coaching staffs. Of course, it could be the start of some players’ professional careers, as seniors start to sign with NHL teams following the end of their collegiate season.
Let’s get right to the action… all games start at 7:00, unless otherwise noted.
12 Princeton at 5 Clarkson
Note: Saturday’s game begins at 7:30
Clarkson swept the season series against beleaguered Princeton, winning 4-3 in Jersey and 3-1 in Potsdam. Forgive my bluntness, but the Tigers look like dead meat: They have only scored three goals in their last four games, and haven’t mustered multiple goals in a game since Feb. 15 (a 7-5 loss at Yale). Princeton allowed 18 goals in the last two weekends combined. Clarkson is hoping that four points and strong defense in its last three games harkens a return to its mid-season swagger, but frankly, even a mediocre series from the Green & Gold should be enough to dispatch of a Princeton side that has never been healthy enough to synchronize. Clarkson sweeps.
11 Harvard at 6 Yale
Yale won the season series, 1-0-1, but also buried the Crimson in the non-conference meeting at Madison Square Garden in January. The Bulldogs are hoping to manufacture their first two-win weekend of the season, believe it or not, while Harvard will almost certainly require top play from its goaltender(s) and something more than the recent two-goals-a-game output of its sputtering offense. These teams have more than an historic rivalry in play, too: Just two years ago in Boston, Harvard came back to win a quarterfinal series against the Blue, two games to one. This has not been a dreadfully balanced rivalry lately, but Harvard head honcho Ted Donato always seems to dig a little something extra out of his squads come March. I see the Bulldogs prevailing, but not until Sunday night. Yale in three.
10 Dartmouth at 7 Rensselaer
If there’s an upset to be had in the first round, this is its likely setting. Dartmouth has rebounded admirably from a putrid 2-11 start, going 6-6-4 ever since. A .500 record may not seem like much, but considering the Green are 4-1-1 in their last six, I’d consider the team hot enough to tip host RPI. The wild card in this series may be the play of Engineers goalie Scott Diebold, who has played in 33 games this year and faced over 900 shots. The offense has been spotty, the defense tentative, and RPI looked readily victimized by quicker, more creative and dynamic Yale last weekend. The whole defensive concept will have to tighten quickly in order to keep shifty Dartmouth off the board. If this series remains low-scoring, I’d actually give Rensselaer the edge (despite conventional road-game strategy desiring tight-checking games)… if we hit five or six goals per game, I’m guessing the Green are ahead. Dartmouth in three.
9 Brown at 8 St. Lawrence
My oh my, just as Bruno got its legs going, they were cut out again in a pair of home shutouts last weekend. SLU is still a potent offensive team despite its somewhat porous defense and goaltending, and I’m not sure Brown can keep up if this series goes all track-meet on us. That said, an early goal or two for the visitors could knock the Saints back on their heels, especially considering that SLU’s team save percentage is .871… and that’s not even counting five empty-net goals against. So who’s mojo will come to play? Something’s gotta give: Either the Saints D/goalies will play better than their numbers, or Brown’s offense will turn last weekend into a distant memory. I’m not sure the latter is as likely as the former. SLU sweeps.
First, congratulations to Cleary Cup champion Union, who took the regular-season crown for the third time in four years (2010-11, ’11-12, and this season).
The Dutchmen are joined in their well-deserved bye week by second-place Colgate, third-place Quinnipiac, and fourth-place Cornell. Kudos, especially, to the Big Red for a tenacious rally against arch-rival Harvard; Cornell’s overtime victory secured the league’s final bye seed.
And now, the first round:
• 12 Princeton @ 5 Clarkson: Clarkson swept the season series, 4-3/3-1.
• 11 Harvard @ 6 Yale: Yale won the season series, 1-0-1, and also beat the Crimson 5-1 in a non-conference game at Madison Square Garden.
• 10 Dartmouth @ 7 Rensselaer: RPI swept the season series, 7-1/4-2.
• 9 Brown @ 8 St. Lawrence: Brown won the season series, 1-0-1.
Of moderate interest, none of the low seeds lucked into a local draw (e.g. 2009-10 Clarkson, which got to sleep at home between first-round “road” games at St. Lawrence). For those curious, the shortest trip of the first round belongs to Dartmouth (131 miles); the distance just slid in under Harvard’s trek to New Haven (134), though due to the directness of the route, the Crimson are likely to spend less time actually on the road.
On the other end of the spectrum, Brown will rack up nearly three times that mileage: It’s 360 miles from Providence to Canton. And last but not least, 12th-seed Princeton truly endures some last-place treatment with 386 miles of road between its Garden State campus and Potsdam, N.Y. Estimated travel time: Six and a half hours.
The one, the only, the PairWise
At this point, I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Union is a lock for the NCAA tournament field, currently occupying the third one-seed in the rankings. Quinnipiac is looking pretty strong as well, but the algorithm is simply too sensitive for me to declare the Bobcats tourney-bound just yet (though I’m tempted to).
At the moment, Cornell is in a tie for 13th in the PWR, and holds an edge over Vermont in the Rankings Percentage Index (RPI). That’s a good thing. Unfortunately, the Red cannot afford to resign from the ECAC playoffs too early, or that 13 will turn into a 20-something in a heartbeat.
Colgate looks good at 16 – the Raiders are on the happy side of that burgundy line – but that line is deceiving. The Atlantic Hockey auto-bid/champion is almost guaranteed to hail from beyond the PWR’s top 16 (Mercyhurst is the AHA’s standings leader and strongest PWR presence at 34th), so that will bump the No. 16 program – Colgate – into golf season with nary a shrug. Raiders need to win a couple of series to solidify their at-large status.
Finally, Yale (19th) and Clarkson (24) are on the outside looking in. It may seem unlikely – especially for Clarkson – but I’m not ready to state definitively that either of them must win the Whitelaw Cup in order to qualify for the Big Dance. The Golden Knights would need a lot of help and a deep postseason run, but stranger things have happened.
Everybody else? Just win, baby.
Right time/wrong time
Who’s timed their hot streaks just right? Who’s at risk of free-falling right out of the 2013-14 season?
Union is 8-0-1 in its last nine, now good for the longest active unbeaten streak in the nation thanks to Notre Dame’s OT upset of Boston College on Saturday. The Dutchmen aren’t so much building a fire as keeping it burning, having only lost four times since Halloween (23-4-2).
Colgate hasn’t put on the season-long laser show that Union has, but the Raiders’ 10-3-3 record since New Year’s is nothing to sniff at. The ‘Gate has only surrendered three goals or more in a game four times in that stretch.
Don’t look now, but 10th-place Dartmouth has only lost once in its last six games (4-1-1), and that defeat was the squeaker at Colgate on Saturday. If only the Green power play had been as effective as their penalty kill.
That thud you heard on Saturday was Princeton hitting the bottom. The Tigers are 2-12 in the second half of the season, and haven’t mustered more than one goal in any of their last four games (0-4). Injuries or not, it’s frankly a year to forget in the Garden State.
Harvard appeared poised to make another postseason run, but the last two weekends put a damper on those plans as the Crimson sputtered to a 1-3 record to close out the scheduled docket.
Brown is 2-7 since its January 31 dumping of Colgate; the Bears were also shut out in both games last weekend.
It’s the final weekend of the regular season in ECAC Hockey and the only spots decided are first (Union) and last (Princeton).Colgate has clinched a first-round bye, although the Raiders still can finish anywhere from second to fourth. Click here for a breakdown of all the possibilities for each team. All games are 7 p.m. unless noted.
Friday, Feb. 28
Rensselaer at Brown
Picked to finish first by the media, RPI is eliminated from any chance of getting a top-four spot. However, both teams could clinch home ice this weekend. There are plenty of top-end scoring threats on each side, so secondary scoring could be essential. Rensselaer wins
Harvard at Colgate
After platooning with Raphael Girard through the early part of the season, Harvard’s Steve Michalek has is unbeaten in four of his last five starts and has logged shutouts in two of them. But reigning rookie of the week Charlie Finn has come on strong for the Raiders as well, and I think Colgate has more weapons on offense. Colgate wins
Dartmouth at Cornell
Cornell needs wins, not only for the conference standings, but for the PairWise as well. The last game between these teams ended with Dartmouth’s Eric Neiley getting a game disqualification at the end of overtime, so keep an eye on any carryover this at Lynah Friday. Cornell wins
Quinnipiac at St. Lawrence
The Bobcats are looking to snap a three- game losing streak compounded by injuries and a mini-scoring drought. St. Lawrence beat Quinnipiac in Hamden 3-2 on Feb. 8, and has been pretty solid this season outside of a brutal nine-game stretch in the middle of the year. QU is currently seventh in the PairWise, and I’ve got to think they’re a pretty solid bet for the NCAA tournament. Of course, that could change if their skid continues, but I think they’ll break out of it. Quinnipiac wins
Union at Yale
Union wrapped up the school’s third regular-season title in four years last weekend, but don’t expect the Dutchmen to take the last two games off. That’s what coach Rick Bennett said, although he did mention the possibility of goalie Colin Stevens sitting for a game. Defending national champion Yale needs to put together some points if they want a first-round bye. Still, I’m not sure if a motivated Bulldogs team is enough to overcome the Dutchmen. Union wins
Princeton at Clarkson
The Golden Knights have struggled lately but even with their skid, they’ve still managed to win as many games in the second half (five) as the Tigers have won all season. Clarkson wins
Saturday, March 1
Union at Brown, 4 p.m.
The Dutchmen haven’t won at Meehan Auditorium since 2010. Union isn’t that far off from being undefeated – five of their six losses are by one goal, and the other was a two-goal decision with an empty netter. There are several scenarios Brown could be playing for on Saturday, but either way, I think the Bears continue the Dutchmen’s misery in Providence. Brown wins
Quinnipiac at Clarkson
It’s possible at by this point Clarkson will have been eliminated from any chance of getting a top-four spot. The Bobcats beat the Golden Knights 6-3 in a physical game in Hamden in February. That matchup was closer than the score indicated, as Clarkson overcame two early goals to tie the game, and had several potential goals reviewed. I think QU will head home with a sweep. Quinnipiac wins
Dartmouth at Colgate
Like I said above, the Raiders need to pad their win total to get some cushion heading into the postseason. Dartmouth has played better over the last few weeks, but Colgate has been red-hot in the second half, especially recently. Colgate wins
Harvard at Cornell
Depending on Friday’s results, the Crimson could have the chance to play spoiler against Cornell. Either way, I think the Big Red should be able to neutralize Harvard’s speed and come away with a win. Cornell wins
Princeton at St. Lawrence
The Saints blew out Princeton in New Jersey, so I don’t see any reason why they should lose to them at home. St. Lawrence wins
Rensselaer at Yale
There might be a shorthanded goal or two at Ingalls Saturday. RPI is third in the nation with seven on the season, while the Bulldogs set a school record with three against Princeton last weekend. Either way, RPI has won its last two games at Yale, and I think that will continue. Rensselaer wins
For the third time in four seasons, Union is the ECAC Hockey regular season champion.
The Dutchmen wrapped up the league title with a 6-2 throttling of St. Lawrence on Saturday. Union is on a seven-game unbeaten streak and has lost only three times since Nov. 9.
It will be interesting to see how head coach Rick Bennett and his coaching staff handle the final weekend of the season. The Dutchmen are third in the PairWise Rankings but have had several injuries to key players throughout the second half.
I’d imagine most of Union’s regulars will play if healthy, but Bennett and his staff could cut back on some of their minutes, like they did with defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere, who didn’t play the final period Saturday against the Saints.
Raiders on the rise
Colgate closed last year with one win over the season’s final month. Head coach Don Vaughan said at the time it was a matter of a young team wearing down as the year progressed.
It’s been a different story for the Raiders this time around. Colgate swept Princeton and Quinnipiac on the road this weekend to move ahead of the Bobcats into sole possession of second place entering the final weekend. The Raiders are 9-2-3 in the second half, with one of those ties a shootout “win” over Minnesota in the opening game of the Mariucci Classic on Jan. 3. They followed that with a win over Ferris State in the tournament championship the next night.
“This certainly has a lot to do with maturity,” Vaughan said. “The start of the second half was really important for us in terms of confidence, when you can go on the road to Minnesota and beat the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the country. And then guys just settled into their roles. In terms of chemistry, I can’t remember a team like this one that I’ve had in a long, long time. There are no egos in the locker room; they just get along so well.”
Tyson and Tylor Spink combined for five goals on the weekend, with Tyson getting his first collegiate hat trick Friday at Princeton. That 6-1 win snapped a three-game losing streak at Hobey Baker Rink for the Raiders, who enter the last weekend of the regular season on a five-game unbeaten streak.
Meanwhile, Quinnipiac has lost three league games in a row for the first time since November 2012. The injury-riddled Bobcats, who played this weekend without forward Jordan Samuels-Thomas and then lost defenseman Dan Federico against Colgate Saturday, head to Clarkson and St. Lawrence to close out the regular season.
Four teams and two spots
With Union and Colgate each locking up a first-round bye, that leaves four teams in contention for the final two top-four spots. Quinnipiac and Cornell are currently third and fourth, respectively, with Yale and Clarkson on the outside looking in.
A complete set of scenarios can be found here, but the Bobcats and Big Red each control their own destiny for their current spots.
Four games left. That doesn’t sound like much, but hey, at least everybody is guaranteed two postseason games, right? Ok then. Six games left?
All games start at 7:00.
Friday, February 21
Brown at Dartmouth
Neither the Bears nor Big Green are likely to improve their first-round status – Dartmouth is four points out of a home series with two teams to jump; Brown is in eighth place and is clinging to that middle-third for dear life. The Green were winners in three of their last four (3-1), while Brown has just one win in its last five (1-4). Surprisingly, the hosts have played better hockey on the road, so that is a bit of a conundrum when making this pick… other than that, signs are pointing to a Big Green victory. 3-2, Dartmouth.
Yale at Harvard
The MSG rematch comes at the perfect time for the streaking Crimson, 4-1-1 in their last six outings and playing strong defense with two shutouts. Yale has been playing .500 hockey for the past month (4-4), with consistently inconsistent production both offensively and defensively. I like Harvard in its annual February hot streak, 4-2.
Colgate at Princeton
The Raiders are still fighting to regain the poise and mojo they had a month ago, but Princeton is a great place to find it: The Tigers have only won twice since Christmas (2-8). Raiders roll, 5-2.
Cornell at Quinnipiac
QU may have a five-point lead on the Big Red, but make no mistake, this is a bye-seed battle about to go down in Hamden. Each squad is fighting for better positioning atop the league table, but also for a stronger PairWise ranking. The Bobcats may be a mediocre 3-3 in their last six games, but Cornell has dropped three straight and hasn’t scored three goals in a game since January. Quinnipiac is 12-2-2 at The Bank this season, and that in and of itself is a good enough reason to bet on blue and gold: 4-2 QU.
St. Lawrence at Rensselaer
RPI has seven points in five games (3-1-1) and is well above .500 at home. The Engineers are facing down an SLU side that is starting to put the season back together after a nine-game winless skid (0-8-1). This should be a strong defensive game, as neither team has surrendered much in recent weeks. A win would help either team a great deal in their respective quests to climb to a better first-round fate. I like the Engineers at home, 2-1.
Clarkson at Union
Union is 4-0-1 in its last five; Clarkson has two wins in its last eight. Big edge to the home-standing Dutchmen, 4-1.
Saturday, February 22
Yale at Dartmouth
While Dartmouth is clearly improving, I don’t see this as a game that Yale can afford to drop… and Big Green evolution aside, I still believe the Bulldogs are the better squad. Yale, 3-2.
Brown at Harvard
Tough to bet against Harvard this time of year, and Brown is practically impossible to predict, sooo… Harvard, 3-2.
Colgate at Quinnipiac
The Bobcats beat up on the Raiders in Hamilton in the fall. These are clearly two different teams than they were on November 1, but I don’t know that Colgate is playing well enough to keep up with QU this time, either. 4-2 Bobcats.
Cornell at Princeton
Brown rule: Cornell wins, 5-3.
St. Lawrence at Union
Union edged the Saints, 2-1, to close out January. A closer game than many anticipated, SLU might just have the grit to keep the Dutchmen in check… but give Bennett and Union the last change, and the Dutch may well be able to pull away from the tight-checking Saints. 4-1 Union.
Clarkson at Rensselaer
Tech-school rivalry, and with a plot of ground at stake too: Clarkson sits two points ahead of RPI as of this writing, and the Golden Knights took Round 1 of the series, 3-0 in Potsdam. Unfortunately for Clarkson, this game isn’t in Potsdam, and the golden defense is feeling rather green by the looks of it: Clarkson has given up 20 goals in five games, including six, twice. RPI with the edge, 3-2.
Playing for position
Time to fire up the seeding machine and see what we’re looking at with two weeks left. Suffice to say, there are a lot of fantastic races shaping up in ECAC Hockey.
• Union has a four-point lead on Quinnipiac for first; the Dutchmen cannot finish lower than third, thereby clinching a first-round bye.
• Quinnipiac can finish anywhere between first and sixth; the Bobcats will not open on the road.
• Colgate has also avoided a first-round road trip, as they cannot fall beyond eighth place.
• Cornell and Clarkson are tied with 20 points, and are out of the running for the Cleary Cup. Both have a basement of 10th place and a ceiling of second.
• Neither Yale nor Rensselaer can finish higher than second; nor can they finish lower than 11th.
• Brown, alone in eighth for the moment, can finish anywhere between third place and dead last.
• Harvard and St. Lawrence are a point behind Brown for the last home-series spot. They could finish as high as fourth if all the pieces fall in the right place; they could also finish last.
• Dartmouth is officially out of the running for a bye. The Big Green are playing for home-ice in the first round, but even that is an uphill climb: Dartmouth’s ceiling is seventh place.
• Princeton is locked into a first-round road trip, but could improve their draw. Currently last, the Tigers could climb as high as ninth.
Union put some distance between itself and Quinnipiac, earning three out of four points at Cornell and Colgate. When QU stumbled at Brown in Saturday’s lone afternoon game, the Dutchmen knew they had a massive opportunity to put the top seed all but out of reach… that evening’s tie at Colgate wasn’t all that Union could have hoped for, but the four-point lead is significant.
Harvard was one of the other three-point winners, edging Clarkson 1-0 in OT and tying St. Lawrence in Canton. The points elevated the Crimson to within a whisper of eighth-place Brown.
Dartmouth was ECAC Hockey’s only four-point squad last weekend, sweeping the North Country by a 9-2 aggregate. The Big Green are paying for their season-long inconsistency (to put it mildly), but the sweep removes them from the basement and gives the team a legitimate shot at a first-round home series.
Hoped for better
Clarkson took a big goose-egg this week, dropping decisions to Harvard and Dartmouth. Flying high a month ago, the Knights are 2-6 in their last eight and are engaged in a four-team dogfight for the final first-round bye.
Cornell suffered a major setback, dropping both of this week’s games at Lynah and failing to put any space at all between itself the rest of the fourth-place pack. In the same boat as Clarkson, the Big Red are grappling with the Knights, Yale and Rensselaer for one prized spot in the standings.
Colgate hosted twice this week, but only mustered two draws against RPI and Union. The Raiders are all but out of the hunt for the Cleary Cup, and are within one week’s work of the fourth-place pack.
St. Lawrence could be in the middle third right now, but instead took a single point out of two home games and are fighting to stay off the road in the first round.