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College Hockey:
Here’s how last season’s PairWise Rankings would have looked with this season’s criteria

card ncaa Heres how last seasons PairWise Rankings would have looked with this seasons criteriaOne of the most prominent questions from college hockey coaches and fans alike in the wake of the NCAA’s announcement of changes to the selection criteria for the national tournament has been about the real-world implications.

Would the 2013 tournament field look different if it had been selected using the new set of criteria?

In terms of which teams earned at-large bids? No.

Committee chair Jim Knowlton of Rensselaer said the Division I Men’s Ice Hockey Committee used a number of analyses to determine how to adjust the selection criteria, which we represent here as the PairWise Rankings.

We asked to see how last season would have looked in the 2013-14 formula, and the NCAA agreed to release that information, which we’re including below.

The field would include the same 16 teams, although six of them would have different seeds:

• Minnesota State and North Dakota would have flipped seeds, with the Mavericks a No. 2 seed and UND in the No. 3 band.

• Wisconsin and Yale would have moved into No. 3 seeds, bumping Niagara and Denver to No. 4 seeds.

The top five spots in the PairWise are identical in each algorithm.

Here’s the NCAA’s representation of the 2012-13 season in the 2013-14 criteria (sorry in advance about the formatting; I’m working on that):

Rank Team        Record  PWCs  RPI RK
-------------------------------------------------
 1 Quinnipiac     27- 7- 5 58- 0 | 57.06 1
 2 Minnesota     26- 8- 5 57- 1 | 56.70 2
 3 *UMass Lowell    26-10- 2 55- 3 | 56.06 3
 4 *Notre Dame     25-12- 3 55- 3 | 54.98 4
 5 Miami       24-11- 5 53- 5 | 54.89 5
 6 New Hampshire   19-11- 7 53- 5 | 54.48 6
 7 Boston College   22-11- 4 52- 6 | 54.44 7
 8 Minnesota State  24-13- 3 50- 8 | 54.28 8
 9 North Dakota    21-12- 7 49- 9 | 54.15 9
 10 *Union       21-12- 5 49- 9 | 53.89 10
 11 *Wisconsin     22-12- 7 48-10 | 53.83 12
 12 Yale        18-12- 3 46-12 | 53.63 14
 13 Niagara      23- 9- 5 45-13 | 53.86 11
 14 Denver       20-13- 5 45-13 | 53.81 13
 15 St Cloud      23-15- 1 43-15 | 53.62 15
 16 Western Michigan  19-11- 8 43-15 | 53.18 16
 17 Providence     17-14- 7 43-15 | 52.87 17
 18 Rensselaer     18-14- 5 41-17 | 52.49 18
 19 Boston University 21-16- 2 40-18 | 52.36 19
 20 Colorado College  18-19- 5 39-19 | 52.25 20
 21 Brown       16-14- 6 37-21 | 51.78 21
 22 Cornell      15-16- 3 37-21 | 51.46 22
 23 Ferris State    16-16- 5 36-22 | 51.12 23
 24 Robert Morris   20-14- 4 35-23 | 51.11 24
 25 Dartmouth     15-14- 5 35-23 | 51.05 25
 26 St Lawrence    18-16- 4 32-26 | 50.99 26
 27 Ohio State     16-17- 7 32-26 | 50.85 27
 28 Nebraska Omaha   19-18- 2 31-27 | 50.79 28
 29 Alaska       17-16- 4 31-27 | 50.64 29
 30 Michigan      18-19- 3 28-30 | 50.46 30
 31 Holy Cross     20-14- 3 28-30 | 50.06 31
 32 Northern Michigan 15-19- 4 28-30 | 50.01 32
 33 Merrimack     15-17- 6 26-32 | 49.98 33
 34 Air Force     17-13- 7 26-32 | 49.91 34
 35 Connecticut    19-14- 4 24-34 | 49.80 35
 36 Mercyhurst     19-17- 5 23-35 | 49.63 36
 37 Bowling Green   15-21- 5 23-35 | 49.39 37
 38 *Canisius      19-18- 5 21-37 | 49.19 38
 39 Colgate      14-18- 4 21-37 | 49.03 39
 40 Minnesota Duluth  14-19- 5 19-39 | 48.78 40
 41 Penn State     11-12- 0 18-40 | 48.77 41
 42 Maine       11-19- 8 16-42 | 48.43 42
 43 Lake Superior   17-21- 1 16-42 | 48.42 43
 44 Michigan Tech   13-20- 4 16-42 | 48.25 44
 45 Michigan State   14-25- 3 15-43 | 48.08 45
 46 Vermont      11-19- 6 14-44 | 48.04 46
 47 Princeton     10-16- 5 12-46 | 47.96 47
 48 RIT        15-18- 5 11-47 | 47.90 48
 49 Massachusetts   12-19- 3 11-47 | 47.90 49
 50 Clarkson      9-20- 7 9-49 | 47.29 50
 51 Harvard      10-19- 3 8-50 | 47.21 51
 52 American Int'l   12-17- 6 7-51 | 46.56 52
 53 Northeastern    9-21- 4 6-52 | 45.49 53
 54 Bentley      12-20- 3 5-53 | 45.06 54
 55 Bemidji State    6-22- 8 4-54 | 44.58 55
 56 Alaska-Anchorage  4-25- 7 3-55 | 43.56 56
 57 Army        7-22- 5 2-56 | 42.60 57
 58 Alabama-Huntsville 1-20- 1 1-57 | 38.38 58
 59 Sacred Heart    2-30- 4 0-58 | 38.18 59

You can see how last year’s PairWise and NCAA tournament actually shook out in this edition of Bracketology.

The order of teams from last year’s PairWise was:

1 Quinnipiac
2 Minnesota
3 Massachusetts-Lowell
4 Notre Dame
5 Miami
6 Boston College
7 New Hampshire
8 North Dakota
9 Denver
10 Niagara
11 Minnesota State
12 Union
13 St. Cloud State
14 Wisconsin
15 Yale
16 Canisius

Canisius, of course, was the Atlantic Hockey tournament champion and received an automatic bid.

Is the change worth much if it produces the same result in terms of deciding which teams get at-large bids? The committee wanted to be cautious about changes because of the new conference landscape and not yet knowing how that would impact things, but this could be considered overcautious.

But I guess we’ll have to let it play out and see what happens.

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