And then there were eight…

We’ve reached the final two weekends of the season and in just over 24 hours we will know who the four teams that will be competing for the 2012 Division III Women’s National Championship.

Concordia (Minn.) @ RIT

Out of the four matchups, this is probably the one that everyone is already penciling in a winner for. Concordia (Minn.) has been a great story this season but they are really up against it having to fly to Rochester, N.Y. to take on the top-ranked Tigers. I think the biggest key in this game is going to be depth. Concordia has a great top line with Taffe, Julius and Dold but after those three the scoring drops off significantly. On the other hand, RIT can roll all four lines and get consistent scoring from three of them night in and night out no matter who they are playing. I just don’t see RIT losing this one in perhaps their final run at a Division III title before the impending move to Division I that is rumored to be happening next season. I like RIT in this one by a score of 5-1.

Amherst @ Norwich

The story lines in this game are incredible. Not only does this game a rematch of the 2010 National Championship, it also has the two teams that have combined to win the last three national championships going head to head. Amherst won in 2009 and 2010, while Norwich won last year. The Cadets also have the pressure on to continue the trend of every team that has won the national championship winning it at least the next year as well. Amherst beat Norwich 2-0 on Jan. 24 at Orr Rink. Since then, Norwich has won 11 games in a row. As cliche as it sounds, this game comes down to special teams and goaltending. Amherst’s Sinead Murphy has some of the best numbers for a goalie in the country sporting a 0.99 goals against average and a save percentage over .950. Kelly Fisk has been solid for Norwich between the pipes and has set a new program single-season record for shutouts with seven. This game also features two of the best players in the country and two likely RBK First Team All-Americans in Norwich’s Julier Fortier and Amherst’s Geneva Lloyd. Amherst is one the teams I think Norwich was hoping to avoid in the Quarterfinal round and I think the Lord Jeffs take this one. Amherst 2-1.

Wis.-River Falls @ Gustavus Adolphus

For the last couple of years River Falls and Gustavus Adolphus have started to emerge from the rest of the pack in the West Region and really assert themselves as the two teams to beat. They’ll meet once again this year in the Quarterfinal round. Last year, Gustavus got the best of the Falcons in the NCAA Quarterfinals. The Gusties had an uncharacteristic loss to St. Olaf late in the season but since they’ve pretty much rolled and I think they’ve got too much fire power in this one to be stopped. Plus, as much as Danielle Justice doesn’t get recognition, she consistently puts up outstanding numbers and is going to go down as having one of the most underrated careers in D-III history awards wise. I like the Gusties 3-2 in this one.

Plattsburgh @ Middlebury

This game should also be a dandy especially considering each team ended its regular season against each other with a 4-4 tie a few weeks ago. Plattsburgh got back into the NCAA tournament this year after a one-year hiatus, but just barely as the Cardinals had to sweat it out a little bit on selection Sunday wondering if they were going to be the odd man out. Instead, Elmira was and Plattsburgh got in this year and they were just barely left out last year for the final at-large bid, losing it to Norwich. Both team’s goalies have shown the ability to shut down top offenses, but also give up quite a few goals as well. Middlebury I think gets a little bit of an edge playing the game on their big ice sheet at Kenyon over the smaller surface at the Stafford. Plattsburgh’s size is their best strength and the play of Teal Gove since the calendar turned to 2012 can’t be overlooked. She’s completely taken over on offense for them. Both teams are deep with mutiple players than can hurt you. I think this game has overtime written all over it and I’ll take Plattsburgh 3-2 in a mild upset.

This morning, the NCAA announced the eight-team field for the 2012 NCAA Division III Tournament, and I can honestly say I’m a little surprised with the outcome.

The five automatic qualifiers into the tournament were defending national champion Norwich (ECAC East), 2011 runner-up RIT (ECAC West), Gustavus Adolphus (MIAC), Wisconsin-River Falls (NCHA), and Middlebury (NESCAC). All five of those teams gained entry to the NCAA Tournament by virtue of winning their respective conference’s postseason tournament.

Then came the three Pool C selections. The first one was easy with Amherst, as the Lord Jeffs dominated everyone in the comparisons and own some impressive victories over Wis.-River Falls, Norwich, Middlebury, and Plattsburgh.

However, then it got complicated really quickly between Concordia (Minn.), Plattsburgh and Elmira, with all three of those teams battling for just two spots.

As I said on the Fan Forum earlier this week, there was no way Plattsburgh could statistically pass Elmira in the comparison should the Cardinals not win the ECAC West Tournament, which they did not, unless the Committee decided to rank Oswego or Potsdam, which I don’t believe they could end up doing, since neither of those teams won a game last week.

However, there is no way to truly know what the Eastern Committee did, since the the final regional rankings are not released to the public like the last three weeks were. The only way Plattsburgh gets a Pool C is if it jumps Elmira in the rankings, so somewhere in the process, they were moved ahead of Elmira and unless something changed, the numbers were not there to support it.

Now, do I think Elmira necessarily got screwed? Yes and no. Personally, I feel the fact that Plattsburgh made the ECAC West final was a little more weight-bearing, rather than Elmira losing in the play-in round for the second straight year. That fact at least makes it understandable as to why Plattsburgh could jump Elmira, especially with all of the criteria being so close.

The other factor in all of this is that Elmira lost the comparison with Concordia (Minn.), while Plattsburgh won it. That may have also factored into the decision to move the Cardinals ahead.

The other intriguing factor into this year’s selection process is that for the first time ever, we are going to have a flight in the first round of the D-III women’s tourney. When it comes to Division III sports, the NCAA has always strongly encouraged (and sometimes vetoed) brackets which create first round flight games when they can be avoided.

With a 5-3 split this year and no Adrian, a flight couldn’t be avoided if Concordia (Minn.) was allowed into the tournament. On the men’s side in previous years, sometimes at-large bids have been given to teams for specific regions to try and minimize flights during the course of the championship when comparisons between teams have been close.

This year though, the NCAA allowed it, which honestly came as  surprise to me, considering their past precedents and history. I will say it is refreshing to the see the NCAA put a team into the tournament regardless of geography that by the numbers belonged in the tournament.

Now, plenty of people will probably point to the lack of the Western Region being able to beat the Eastern teams when it comes to the NCAA Tournament as a reason why the East should have got six teams in, and if the selection involved past history not including this season, they’d have a legitimate beef. However, that’s not part of the process and can’t be considered.

Moving on past Elmira being left out and having a first round flight for the first time, the bracket wasn’t surprising at all once we knew those two things.

Concordia was the lowest seed in the tournament and will fly to the No. 1 seed RIT. Gustavus Adolphus and Wis.-River Falls play each other because they are the only other schools within 500 miles each other in the tournament. Norwich gets a tough first round matchup with Amherst after the Lord Jeffs were one of just two teams to beat the Cadets this season. Finally, in the fourth matchup, Middlebury hosts Plattsburgh.

I’ll have a full preview of the quarterfinal round later this week for my column. Hope this helps some people understand what went down earlier today. To Elmira, I’m sorry, better luck next year, and to the rest of the eight teams left, good luck!

Over the next three days, we will crown five league champions and start to put the first pieces of the puzzle together on who will be competing for the 2012 NCAA Division III championship. On Monday, we’ll find out who the final three teams are that secured the at-large bids when the NCAA holds its selection show on NCAA.com. at 10 a.m. EST.

Two teams are one win away from locking up the first automatic bid into the NCAA Tournament, as Gustavus Adolphus and Concordia (Minn.) both won tonight to advance to the MIAC Championship game. Concordia (Minn.) took care of business with a 4-1 win over St. Thomas, while Gustavus Adolphus slipped by Bethel, 1-0, in overtime thanks to Courtney Boucher finally getting a puck past Jessica Newstrom to lift the Gusties to the win 6:25 into overtime.

MIAC
Gustavus has dominated this conference for the past decade, and I just don’t see it ending this year. The Gusties beat Concordia, 4-1, and tied them, 3-3, earlier this year in their two meetings at Concordia. Coach Carroll’s club on home ice at the Don Roberts Arena I think is too much for Concordia to try and overcome. I like Gustavus Adolphus, 3-1, in this one.

NCHA
Wisconsin-Superior vs. Adrian
Adrian took three points from Wis.-Superior on Nov. 11-12, but I think things go a bit differently this time around. Dani Schultz has been on a tear for the Yellowjackets to help lead them to a 10-2-1 record in their last 13 games. Adrian isn’t too shabby either over its last 11 games, with a 10-1 mark. Wis.-Superior has been playing a little bit better competition though as of late, and they own some nice wins this season over Wisconsin-River Falls and a 5-1 win over Gustavus Adolphus. I think Wis.-Superior gets some revenge and wins this one, 4-2.

Lake Forest at Wis.-River Falls
Lake Forest rebounded from losing three of its last four games with a sweep over St. Scholastica last weekend in the NCHA Quarterfinals. However, without Kim Herring scoring at her sophomore season pace, I just don’t see the Forresters keeping up with Wis.-River Falls in this one. The Falcons are too strong and too deep for Lake Forest to skate with for a full 60 minutes. Wis.-River Falls rolls, 4-0

Wis.-Superior @ Wis.-River Falls
Even with how wide open the NCHA was this season after UWRF, if you were a betting person, I’d have to imagine Wis.-Superior was probably the first pick on the list to meet the Falcons in the final this year. I like the way Wis.-Superior has been playing lately, but I just don’t think Wis.-River Falls will be denied this year after it lost in the NCHA finals last year and in the NCAA quarterfinals. Coach Cranston’s crew gets it done this year and Wis.-River Falls wins it, 3-2.

Eastern picks to come tomorrow!

For the second straight year the Elmira College Soaring Eagles have been ousted in the ECAC West Play-In round. Last year Utica knocked off EC 2-1 and this year it was Potsdam that downed the Soaring Eagles by the same score.

Last year Marissa Hotaling stopped 52 shots to lead Utica to the upset win and this year Jen Conophy stole the show from EC behind a 46 -save performance.

After looking like it was well on its way back to being a national championship contender again this year, Elmira suffered the same fate that they did last season with an early round playoff exit. Just two weeks ago, EC controlled its own destiny and needed to manage only a split against RIT to clinch the ECAC West regular season crown, a first round bye, and hosting rights to the ECAC West final four. However, RIT swept Elmira to not only prevent Elmira from the top spot, it also knocked the Soaring Eagles all the way down to third place in the standings.

As crazy as it sounds, Elmira is still in the hunt for a Pool C  “at-large” bid into the NCAA Tournament. The Soaring Eagles are 20-5-1 as opposed to 16-8-2 like last year. However, EC will still need A LOT of help to make the tournament. Elmira will be doing a lot of scoreboard watching this weekend hoping that Norwich wins the ECAC East, Plattsburgh or RIT wins the ECAC West, Middlebury or Amherst wins the NESCAC, Gustavus Adolphus wins the MIAC and Wis.-River Falls wins the NCHA. Should all those things happen, I think Elmira still grabs the final Pool C slot.

The only team that might have a claim to a Pool C slot should the above scenario happen would be Concordia (Minn.). However, the Cobbers didn’t do anything to help their resume with their tie against Augsburg last weekend.

Elmira was the only major upset victim over the weekend in the first round of playoff action. Oswego and Potsdam both picked up their first ever playoff victories and will now get the task of trying to take down Plattsburgh and RIT to continue their cinderella runs.

The MIAC joins the fun this week with a play-in game between St. Olaf and Bethel tomorrow and then the semifinals on Thursday. Ironically, even though the MIAC just finished their regular season this past weekend, they’ll be the first conference to play its semifinals.

The NCHA and MIAC will both hold their championship games on Saturday while all three East Region conferences will play their finals on Sunday. The NCAA committee will announce the eight-team field and pairings on Monday morning with a live on-line selection show.

For the first time this year, every team will have to earn their bid to the Frozen Four. There will be no more byes after there were originally six teams in the NCAA Tournament when they first started sponsoring a D-III championship and then later moved to seven.

That also means we won’t find out who is hosting the Frozen Four until the week of the championship since there will be no guaranteed teams playing in the semifinals. Strap in we’re about to embark on the best week of the season with playoff games almost every night!

The playoffs are officially upon us for four out the five conferences. Every league outside of the NCHA has a one and done format. However, the NCHA plays a unique two-game series format that is a race to three points. You get two points for a win and one for a tie. If two teams split the series whether it be a win and a loss or two ties, they play a 20-minute min-game for the final point. If there is no score in the mini-game, the two teams play sudden death overtime until a winner is decided.

NCHA-

Wis.-Stevens Point/Adrian
Adrian is the hottest team in the country right now that no one is talking about. The Bulldogs have won nine straight games, which ties the nation’s longest winning streak along with top-ranked RIT. Adrian won both regular season meetings by scores of 7-3 and 6-4. I don’t see anything changing this time around, especially with Adrian hosting both of the games. I’ll take Adrian in a sweep.

Wis.-Eau-Claire/Wis.-River Falls
Wis.-River Falls enters the postseason coming off a bit of a let down with a 3-1 non-conference loss to St. Thomas. The Falcons had gone unbeaten in their previous eight, but six of those games came against the bottom three teams in the NCHA so UWRF might have fallen into a bit of a trap getting away with some thing they won’t against the upper echelon teams. Still, UWRF won and tied in the regular season meetings by a score of 5-3 and 2-2. I think the Falcons roll again in this one with a sweep

St. Norbert/Wis.-Superior
Wis.-Superior boasts the NCHA Player of the Year with freshman Dani Schulz who has scored some timely goals this year for the Yellowjackets. She’ll need to stay on her game to UW-Superior try and fend off a feisty St. Norbert squad that can present problems if taken lightly. I’ll go with Wis.-Superior moving on thanks to three points with a win and a tie in the series.

St. Scholastica/Lake Forest
St. Scholastica and Lake Forest split the two games and then the Saints win it in the mini-game to advance to the NCHA final four for the first time in just their second year as a varsity program.

ECAC East-

Southern Maine/New England College 
Kristin Conners has been playing tough in between the pipes for NEC lately after Teraysa White left earlier this season. I’ll take the Pilgrims in a tight one…3-2.

UMass-Boston/Manhattanville
Manhattanville too strong for the Beacons even though the Valiants had a tough start to the season. They are starting to play some strong hockey and last year they went on a similar run all the way to the ECAC East title. Manhattanville wins 4-2.

Nichols/Norwich
Norwich has never lost to Nichols and has outscore the Bison 53-2 in the six all-time meetings between the two schools. Nothing changes today and the Cadets cruise into the semifinals with a 8-1 win.

Castleton/Salve Regina
Here is the most interesting matchup to me in the ECAC East. Castleton started off the season very hot and looked like they may host a first round game and push towards the top of the league. However, the Spartans have hit a rough patch in the second half. Salve Regina is extremely tough to beat at home and they take this one 3-1.

ECAC West-
Neumann/Oswego
Oswego hosts its first ever postseason game today and the Lakers ride the momentum of the hometown crowd to a 2-1 win over Neumann to advance to the ECAC West final four weekend for the first time in the program’s six-year history.

Potsdam/Elmira
Elmira doesn’t have a repeat of last year’s disappointing ECAC West Play-In round loss and the Soaring Eagles stop Potsdam 7-0.

NESCAC-

Williams/Bowdoin
Bowdoin starting to play pretty well in the second half of the season and that continues today as the Polar Bears roll to a 5-1 victory.

Colby/Middlebury
Defending NESCAC champions start off their title defense with a romp and break two-game winless streak with a 6-0 win over Colby.

Conn. College/Amherst
Conn. College has improved this year and has been playing some teams tight, but Amherst has way too much firepower and depth to keep up with for 60 minutes. Lord Jeffs win going away 5-0.

Hamilton/Trinity
Trinity doesn’t get cursed by the This Week in D-III column spotlight and the Bantams take down Hamilton 3-1 to advance to the NESCAC semifinals.

Every conference but the MIAC wrapped up its respective regular season schedules this past weekend. RIT (ECAC West), Norwich (ECAC East), Wis.-River Falls (NCHA) and Middlebury (NESCAC) reigned surpeme as the conference regular season champions for the second straight season. Gustavus Adolphus has already clinched the MIAC as well giving us the same exact five regular season champions as last year.

The biggest surprise from this past weekend for me was seeing Gustavus Adolphus lose 5-2 to St. Olaf. The Gusties have absolutely dominated the MIAC this past decade, rarely losing a game in MIAC play and especially not giving up five goals. Not sure what happened in that one other than judging from the box score Gustavus forgot there was a third period to play as St. Olaf scored five straight goals, including four in the final frame.

Even though Gustavus already has the MIAC regular season title locked up, a loss like that could end up coming back to bite them in the NCAA selection process should GAC get upset in the MIAC Tournament.

Speaking of the NCAA Tournament, let’s see how its stacking up currently.

The first public NCAA rankings were released last week by the Committee and they went as follows:

Now let’s try and do a little Bracketology. We know there will be eight teams that make the NCAA Tournament this year, up one this year from seven last year.

There are five automatic bids given to each of the conference tournament champions. For argument’s sake, we’ll take the regular season champion and assume they win the conference tournament as well to see how the field is shaping up currently.

ECAC East - Norwich
ECAC West – RIT
NESCAC – Middlebury
MIAC – Gustavus Adolphus
NCHA – River Falls

The rest of the field will be determined by three Pool C or at-large bids which are given to the next three best teams that don’t win their conference tournament as judged by the NCAA’s primary criteria of in-region winning percentage, strength of schedule, head to head, common opponents, and record vs. NCAA ranked teams. Secondary criteria can also be used when teams are close which includes overall winning percentage and record in last 25% of your games played in the season.

The East committee and the West committee each take their three best next teams and throw them into the pot to be considered for the three at-large spots. Amherst, Elmira, and Plattsburgh would be the East’s three teams up against Concordia (Minn.), Superior and St. Thomas.

 Amherst is first compared to Concordia (Minn.)

The comparison is:

The ECAC West power struggle has taken more twists and turns this year than Patrick Kane dangling through a crowd of goons.

First, Plattsburgh started behind the eight ball with an early-season tie to Neumann, then RIT was in the position of playing catch up after Plattsburgh took three of four points at home against the Tigers. Elmira put itself in prime position to take the crown after splitting with Plattsburgh a few weeks ago. However, now with just one week remaining in the season, we finally have a pretty clear picture of how things are going to shake out after RIT swept all four points from Elmira this weekend.

The only way the Tigers could clinch the regular season crown was a sweep, and they did just that, blasting Elmira 5-1 on Friday night at the Ritter and then following up with a hard-fought 2-1 victory on Saturday at the Domes, despite being outshot.

RIT is now in the clear driver’s seat to repeat as the ECAC West regular season champion, pending a sweep of Cortland this weekend. Plattsburgh has assured itself of the no. 2 spot no matter what Elmira does in its final two games at Oswego. The Soaring Eagles took a hard fall from grace, from needing just one win this past weekend to lock up the top spot and home ice throughout the playoffs to dropping all the way down to the no. 3 spot and have to play a play-in game, as well as meet Plattsburgh, pending a victory in the semifinal round.

Plattsburgh’s tie against Neumann also comes back to bite the Cards, as it now looks like they’ll finish one point behind RIT in the standings. Had Plattsburgh beat Neumann, the Cardinals would win the tiebreaker with RIT, having a 1-0-1 record against the Tigers in head-to-head meetings this year.

With only one week left to play in the regular season for every conference except the MIAC, let’s take a look at how the conference races are shaping up.

In the ECAC East, Norwich has already clinched home ice for the duration of the league playoffs, as it is 10 points clear of the next closest D-III team in Manhattanville. The Cadets however, need one more point to clinch the overall ECAC East title with Division I Holy Cross sitting four points back in second. NU will play Holy Cross on Saturday at 1 p.m. in both teams’ regular season finale. Third through six remains a cluster, with just three points separating four teams, and just one separating three of them.

Castleton currently holds a slim lead for the third spot with 17 points, while New England College and Salve Regina have 16 points. Southern Maine is in sixth with 14. None of the four teams play each other in head-to-head matchups, but NEC and Castleton each play St. Anselm and Massachusetts-Boston, which is one of the toughest swings in the ECAC East.

In the MIAC, Gustavus Adolphus continues its impressive domination of the conference, as the Gusties have already clinched their eighth straight MIAC regular season title. They have already won eight straight MIAC tournament titles, and will be looking for their ninth in a couple of weeks.

The NCHA regular season champion is a clear runaway for Wisconsin-River Falls, as the Falcons have 35 points and cannot be caught. After that though, things get very interesting, with a huge bottleneck fight for second to fifth. Wisconsin-Superior holds a slim one-point lead on Lake Forest for the no. 2 spot, but the Yellowjackets have a big home-and-home series with fourth place St. Scholastica this weekend. The Saints sit just three points back of Superior as well. Adrian is fifth with 22 points, and it hosts third-place Lake Forest for a pair of games. You couldn’t ask for better drama than what the NCHA has on tap this weekend, with all four of those teams playing each other and plenty left to be decided.

In the NESCAC, Middlebury has the inside track to host the NESCAC tournament after Amherst slipped up and lost 3-2 to Trinity over the weekend. Had Amherst won, the Lord Jeffs would be hosting in the friendly confines of Orr Rink. Bowdoin has emerged as a solid third place, while Trinity, Hamilton, Connecticut College and Williams are left to fend for the final quarterfinal host spot down to seventh place.

It’s hard to believe it that we’re already to the final weeks of the regular season, but buckle up, as we’re in for another great run to the finish this season!

The focal point of D-III women’s hockey this weekend will be the home-and-home series between RIT and Elmira.

RIT hosts round one tonight at the Frank Ritter Memorial Arena, while Elmira hosts tomorrow at the Murray Athletic Center in Pine Valley. N.Y.

Elmira comes into the series needing just one win to put itself in the driver’s seat to take the crown, while on the other hand, RIT needs to take all four points in order to in essence clinch its second straight ECAC West regular season crown.

Last year, RIT swept the season series from Elmira. However, in the eight meetings prior, Elmira was 5-1-2 against the Tigers. The Soaring Eagles will need to get back to their winning ways if they want to avoid finishing third for the second straight year.

RIT has missed two key forwards lately in Kolbee McCrea and Celeste Brown. Having them back in the lineup would certainly bolster their offense and their chances to take multiple points this weekend.

Elmira has quietly stayed under the radar all season after last year was one of the most disappointing they have had in program history. Two or more points this weekend could change all that in a heartbeat, as Elmira would have the inside track to the regular season title pending a sweep of all four points next weekend against Oswego.

My gut says we’re going to see a split this weekend, which would work in favor of Elmira. Goaltending and special teams as always will be the key when teams of this caliber get together. I’ll take each team winning its respective home game. RIT 3-1 tonight and then Elmira 2-1 Saturday night.

Last Tuesday, we lost our lone remaining unbeatean team in Division III women’s hockey, as the Gustavus Adolphus Gusties fell, 5-1, to Wisconsin-Superior. That started a string of surprising results out west this week, as Superior went and tied Marian 3-3 in its very next game. Gustavus also struggled in its next two games, but GAC did survive with one-goal victories to stay unbeaten in MIAC play on the year.

St. Catherine also split with Concordia (Minn.), which could be considered a minor upset on the surface. Out East, all the traditional powers held serve, as RIT went 3-0 on the week. The Tigers weren’t flashy though, as they beat a scrappy Hamilton team, 3-1, then downed Oswego by scores of 4-0 and 2-1 to keep their hopes for an ECAC West regular season title alive. Amherst, Elmira, Plattsburgh and Middlebury took care of business with no problems as well.

The biggest surprise to me in the East this week was Norwich’s struggles with Southern Maine on Friday. The Cadets beat USM 10-0 earlier this year, but on Friday, Norwich trailed the Huskies 2-0 after 20 minutes, and if not for a Kaycie Anderson goal with 45 seconds left in the second period would have trailed 3-2 at the end of 40 minutes. NU scored four goals in the third to pull away for the 7-3 win, but USM nearly doubled the amount of goals Norwich has given up in league play this year. Coming into Friday’s game, Norwich had outscored its league opponents by an astounding 100-4. The Huskies scored three goals on seven shots to put a scare in the Maroon and Gold. Norwich senior defenseman Amanda Wilks became the fourth player in program history and the first defenseman to score 100 points during Saturday’s 14-0 win over Plymouth State. She scored a short-handed goal in the second period as part of a two-goal and two-assist game for the Cadets.

20 Predictions

1. Gustavus Adolphus finishes regular season unbeaten. (Superior beat GAC 5-1 on Jan. 31)

2. St. Scholastica freshman Nina Waidacher leads nation in points at end of regular season. (Not looking good after missing five games and Fortier’s pace right now.)

3. RIT announces it is going to Division I next year before the end of the season. (No official announcement from the college yet, but the president has sent a letter out saying all intentions are to move up and word has it RIT has only scheduled D-I teams for next year so far…we’ll see.)

4. Amherst sweeps Wis.-River Falls and St. Thomas on western road trip. (Got one finally here!)

5. Norwich finishes unbeaten in ECAC East play for second straight year. (Looking good right now…two games left at home against Holy Cross and Salve Regina. The Cadets have a score to settle with Salve after the Seahawks tied NU for the second straight year earlier this season.)

6. Julie Fortier, Kourtney Kunichika, Allie Schwab, Kim Herring and Geneva Lloyd are the five Hurd Award finalists. (I think Fortier, Kunichika, Schawb and Lloyd are looking good…Herring will be a close call.)

7. Norwich’s Julie Fortier wins Laura Hurd Award. (I don’t see how she doesn’t at this point…leading nation in goals and points…will most likely break program record for points in a career.)

8. Gustavus Adolphus’ senior goalie Danielle Justice leads nation in shutouts. (Not likely at all…what a turnaround by Sydney Aveson at Plattsburgh. Impressive improvement since earlier in the season has Plattsburgh right in the mix again.)

9. RIT’s Kolbee McCrea leads nation in goals. (Fortier setting too quick a pace right now…not likely.)

10. Two more schools announce they are adding D-III women’s hockey before end of the season (Franklin Pierce and Stevenson have already announced). (shot in the dark that isn’t looking good at all.)

11.  RIT loses two games this season (playoffs and NCAAs included), one to Elmira and one to Plattsburgh. (halfway right so far…home-and-home series coming up with Elmira.)

12. Manhattanville makes ECAC East finals. (Clearly the No. 2 in the ECAC East on paper, but in a one-and-one situation anything can happen. Salve, New England College, Castleton, and Massachusetts-Boston could all pull the upset with the right bounce of the puck.)

13. One of Wis.-River Falls, Middlebury, or RIT doesn’t make their conference championship. (I really like the possibility of one of these happening.)

14. St. Scholastica makes NCHA finals. (Backing down a little bit on the Scholastica bandwagon….Wis.-Superior has clearly established itself as the No. 2 threat to Wis.-River Falls right now.)

15. Castleton makes ECAC East final four. (Looked great earlier this year…now starting to wonder. Coach Bowes might be one more season out. But he’s still got this team going in the right direction in my opinion.)

16. Elmira wins ECAC West Tournament. (Who knows…as good of a shot as Plattsburgh and RIT…could go a long way toward making its road easier by splitting with RIT and earning the No. 1 seed for tournament and hosting rights to playoffs.)

17. Amherst wins NESCAC Tournament. (I think they are the best team in the NESCAC, but plenty of teams have shown they can play with the Jeffs and Middlebury this year…)

18. RIT, Norwich, Amherst, and Wis.-River Falls make the Frozen Four. (Honestly the only team I’m confident will make it is Amherst. The other three could easily be out and just as easily be in too. It’s so wide open this year between the top 8 or 9 teams.)

19. RIT hosts the Frozen Four (Still ranked No. 1 right now and would probably be No. 1 in the first NCAA rankings as we stand currently. Big series with Elmira coming up. Tigers need a sweep to host the ECACW Tournament again.)

20. RIT wins national championship (See 18.)

Weekend picks are back this week after a far too long absence!

Although there are no games between two top-10 ranked teams this weekend, there are some interesting matchups that should lead to some good games and some tough games to predict.

Friday, Feb. 2nd -

Salve Regina/UMass-Boston
Here’s an interesting game between two ECAC East schools jockeying for playoff position as we enter the home stretch of the regular season. Salve currently sits in third place once we take out the non-D-III schools from the standings, while UMB is in seventh just four points back creating quite the logjam in the middle of the ECAC East standings. UMass-Boston won the earlier meeting this season 5-2 and I’ll take the Beacons again this time. UMass-Boston:4 Salve Regina: 3

RIT/Oswego
Oswego will have their hands full this weekend with the top-ranked Tigers coming to town for a pair of games at the Campus Center. The Lakers have solidly emerged as the No. 4 team in the ECAC West this year behind the triumverant three of Elmira, RIT and Plattsburgh. The Lakers were the only team to knock off RIT last year before the national championship game so the Tigers will be looking for a little revenge. Oswego might keep it close one night but I see RIT winning comfortably once and then by two or three in the other game. RIT: 6 Oswego: 1 and RIT: 4 Oswego: 2

Trinity/Bowdoin
Personally, I feel this two-game series is right up there for the most intriguing of the week with St. Scholastica and Lake Forest. Both teams are tied for the No. 3 slot in the NESCAC right now which was for the most part expected. However, the unexpected part to some degree is the fact Conn. College and Williams are just one and two points behind respectively. This weekend’s pair of games at Bowdoin’s Watson Arena could go a long way toward settling the No. 3 spot if one of the teams can take three of more points. Trinity’s Alexa Pujol is one of the best in between the pipes for the Bantams and she’ll lead them to one win this weekend. However, Bowdoin also gets a win as well and the two teams remain tied coming out of the weekend. Bowdoin: 2 Trinity: 1 and Trinity: 3 Bowdoin: 1

Potsdam/Neumann
These two clubs are currently duking it out for the all important fifth place in the ECAC West, which would avoid a first round meeting with one of Elmira, Plattsburgh and RIT. Neumann is currently a point ahead of the Bears and I think they’ll take both of these games to firmly entrench themselves in the fifth spot. With the NCAA sanction behind them and an official statement from the league saying the Knights are eligible for the ECAC West playoffs, they’ll be ready and motivated this weekend. Neumann: 4 Potsdam : 1 and Neumann: 3 Potsdam: 0

Adrian/UW-Stevens Point
The Pointers currently lead Adrian by three points for fifth place in the NCHA. This weekend is their chance to solidify their hold on the spot and start to challenge Scholastica for the 4th spot. After starting off 6-2-1, the Pointers are just 3-6 in their last nine. Adrian has won three in a row and I think the Bulldogs pull off three points this weekend on the road to tie things up for fifth. Adrian: 3 Point: 2, Adrian: 2 Point: 2

St. Scholastica/Lake Forest
This is the most intriguing matchup of the week for me. You have St. Scholastica who is having a breakout year led by the Waidacher sisters against Lake Forest who features one of the top players in D-III in Kim Herring. After a strong start, CSS has had a little bit tougher road in the second half of the season. Part of it came due to the Waidachers missing a combined eight games. With the Waidachers back teamed with captain Michelle Fischer, the Saints regain their mojo and take three points from Lake Forest to pull ahead of the Foresters for third place. St. Scholastica: 4 Lake Forest: 3, St. Scholastica: 2 Lake Forest: 2

Drop the puck!