Another Bracketology

First, if you haven’t done so already, read Matt Webb and Josh Carey’s excellent analysis of the West’s NCAA predicament. It points out the problems and highlights some solutions for the West getting three teams in the tournament in the event St. Norbert beats UW-Stout. I’ll cover the high points here, in an updated version of “A Bracketology”. You can read last week’s version here.

Once again, we’ll focus on schools still in the running and what their respective chances are:

Already In: Plattsburgh and St. Thomas have won their conference tournaments and the respective automatic bids.

A lock: St. Norbert, Elmira, Norwich. Even if these teams lose in their conference tournaments, they’re in. Elmira has locked up the Pool B bid and St. Norbert and Norwich will capture pool C bids if they don’t get their league’s AQs.

Looking Good: Manhattanville, Middlebury, Hobart. All match up very well with the remaining East teams and West teams. They should all get in if St. Norbert and Norwich win this weekend. Middlebury can earn its way in if it wins the NESCAC, paving the way for another team to get a Pool C slot.

On the bubble: UW-Stout, Oswego. The Blue Devils can of course win their way in. If not, both Stout and Oswego need Middlebury to win the NESCAC, and then it will come down to which committee makes the better case. See Webb and Carey’s analysis for details.

Remote Chance:UW-River Falls, Adrain – Both need some fudging or rethinking of the Western Rankings – for example, the addition of Finlandia and UW-Stevens Point. Once again, Webb and Carey have the details.

Must Win their AQ: New England, Salem State, Mass-Boston, Mass-Dartmouth, Nichols, Colby, Amherst, Trinity.

So how do I think it will shake out? I’m predicting the following:

ECAC East: Norwich

NESCAC: Middlebury

ECAC Northeast: UMass-Dartmouth

NCHA: St. Norbert

ECAC West: Elmira (no AQ)

Pool B: Elmira

Pool C: Manhattanville, Hobart, Oswego/Stout (too close to call).

If it’s Oswego:

First Round:

Mass-Dartmouth at Manhattanville

Oswego at Hobart (but I can see this changing to Hobart at Oswego – bigger rink, bigger $$$)

Quarterfinals:

Mass-Dartmouth/Manhattanville at Elmira

Oswego/Hobart at Plattsburgh

Middlebury at Norwich

St. Thomas at St. Norbert

If it’s Stout:

First Round:

Mass-Dartmouth at Hobart

UW-Stout at St. Thomas

Quarterfinals:

Mass-Dartmouth/Hobart at Elmira

Manhattanville at Plattsburgh

Middlebury at Norwich

St. Thomas/UW-Stout at St. Norbert

I’ll be watching these events unfold from afar while broadcasting Holy Cross at RIT in the AHA quarterfinals best of three series. Check back for an update sometime this weekend.

11 COMMENTS

  1. Man, Chris you’re a tough grader. Cole Schnieder had 3 goals including both gamewinners over the weekend and he doesn’t make your list of Honorables?

  2. I agreed (with others) that MSU was down and out for the foreseeable future after Friday’s pasting. But I’ve got to give them props… they stuck it to MIchigan and put them right on the NCAA bubble heading into the final two weeks. I figured UM a lock a couple of weeks ago, but now…???

    • A season Finale sweep at home for Michigan (I can’t believe I’m saying this) is what I’m hoping for…or at least as Friday win, to put the B1G championship on the Line Saturday…Gonna be a great weekend of hockey in the B1G….
      GO BUCKY !!!!

  3. Congratulations are due. After the collapse at Yost Friday, I had MSU finished for the season. But, the boys pulled together and prevailed. So props for that. We will see what happens this week against Wisconsin. Not holding my breath though. SO the question: Yanekeff or Hilldebrandt?

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