A week ago, I wrote about two games where we felt the lines were off. Way off. And I told readers when there is a line that is off, it’s a must bet.
Well, I heard plenty from UMass fans when they upset Northeastern despite being even money at home. I get it, your team won, but from a gambling perspective if you bet on the Minutemen, you weren’t paid enough value.
So here is a quick math lesson. Here were the lines on Northeastern at UMass and Michigan Tech at Minnesota State.
NU (-115) at UMass (-115)
MTU (+180) at Minn. St (-235)
Our advice was to bet the two road teams. NU lost, MTU won. So let’s do the math.
A $100 bet on NU lost you $100. A $100 bet on MTU won you $280. That’s a net positive of +$80. So making both of those bets hoping even one of the two was a victory was a net positive play.
This week begins the postseason for four of he six leagues, all with best-of-three series beginning tonight (Friday). A three-game series is an interesting situation for bettors. There are a few different approaches you should consider when wagering.
If you’re looking to bet the underdog, the first game of the series is the best to bet. If the underdog wins (obviously you win), you won’t receive as strong odds on game two. If you’re going to bet the home team, sometimes a wait-and-see approach is necessary knowing that should the favorite lose game one, there will be more value in game two.
As for when there is a third-and-deciding game, look for value. Is the underdog a bigger ‘dog in game three than it was in game one? Has the favorite had its value reduced too significantly? Maybe they were -175 in game one but lost game two and now are -115 in game three?
All things to consider when betting postseason series.
Michigan State (+135) at No. 19 Notre Dame (-165); o/u 5.5 (Big Ten Quarterfinals)
Here is the perfect example of taking a betting approach based on which team you believe will win.
If you’re on Michigan State, betting at +135 brings in value. Notre Dame at -165 lacks value that might exist in game two, particularly if the Irish lose game one.
But you should consider motivation. Michigan State would like to earn its first-ever Big Ten tournament victory (you read that right). Notre Dame understands that it has to advance to have any chance at an NCAA at-large bid. Take both of those into consideration.
No. 14 Omaha (+120) at North Dakota (-150); o/u 5.5
The NCHC doesn’t seem like it has much to play for in the final weekend, unless you take a really good look at the standings.
Yes, Denver will be the #1 seed and Miami will be #8. Omaha, Western Michigan and St. Cloud all locked up home ice. But everything else is up in the air. You have a trio that can finish 2-4. You have a trio that can finish 5-7.
North Dakota needs wins to have some momentum heading to the postseason. Omaha needs a victory to get a better PairWise spot (currently 16th and on the wrong side of the bubble).
What is most interesting about this matchup is that these two could possibly face each other again next week in the quarterfinals, setting up the chance of playing five straight over a nine-day span.
Massachusetts (-115) at Maine (-115); o/u 5
Here we go with the Minutemen again possibly being overvalued again by the books. The Minutemen pulled off the upset at home over Northeastern last Friday but then got routed on the road a night later.
This time they’re headed to Orono where the host Black Bears have been red hot of late. Maine is 11-4-1 at home this season and are 8-2-0 in their last 10 at Alfond. Maine should be a much heavier favorite at home (-150 or so), thus the -115 line is great value.
No. 17 UConn (-115) at Boston College (-115); o/u 6
We’re going to look at this Hockey East matchup for the same reason as the UMass-Maine game – it seems like the line is a little off.
BC is a below .500 home team (6-8-4) and is coming off being swept by Maine. UConn is 6-3-0 in its last nine and has won two in a row, including stomping what had been a red-hot New Hampshire team, 6-1, last Saturday. The Huskies are fighting for the possibility of a home ice quarterfinal game as well as PairWise position.
For those reasons, we feel that UConn should be a slightly higher favorite (-135?). So there is some value in betting the Huskies here. It’s less of a slam dunk bet than Maine, but still a place to look for value
No. 15 Northeastern (-135) at UMass Lowell (+105); o/u 5
This two-game series that begins at UMass Lowell on Friday has so much on the line. Northeastern is looking to win back-to-back Hockey East regular season championships after having never finish first until last season. They also are hoping to move back into an NCAA at-large position after dropping from 14th to 17th after last weekend’s split with UMass.
UMass Lowell is struggling a bit of late, battling injuries to some key upperclassmen. But the River Hawks should be motivated to move up in the Hockey East standings to avoid having to play in the opening round of the tournament.
The over/under of 5 is appropriate here as both team’s goaltending enter with fantastic stats all season long. You could expect a 1-0 or 2-1 game from these two teams
