I’ve been doing a pre-NCAA selection version of Bracketlolgy for several years now. I have more uncertainty this season than any other about what the committee will do. A few years back, when USCHO created the Pairwise Rankings, they did an accurate job of predicting the NCAA field, because the committee basically did the same thing. But the term “look beyond the numbers” has come up the past few years, meaning that more and more subjectivity has entered into the equation. Instead of treating the criteria equally, some were given more weight then others. Also, small differences in some criteria between teams were not given as much consideration as larger ones in other criteria.
Then there’s the consideration of cost of flying teams, which has a big affect on first round pairings and at worst case may cause one team to be selected vs. another. In case you forgot, the primary criteria are:
- Win Percentage
- Quality of Wins
- Head-to-Head Results
- Record Against Common Opponents Within Region
- Record Against Ranked Teams
For the past six seasons, the finals have been held in the East, and in each of those cases, only one team has been flown from the West. This has resulted in at most three Western teams getting into the tournament. This year, the finals are in the West, and the NCAA will be flying at least two Eastern teams there. They have to, because there are four leagues with Automatic Qualifiers (AQs) in the East plus Pool B, which will also be an Eastern team. There’s no way to play all of those teams down to one team. The question that will dominate the Bracketology is: Will they fly three teams West?
Let’s look at the numbers. The follwoing teams are in based on winning an AQ:
ECAC East – Babson
ECAC Northeast – Mass-Dartmouth
SUNYAC – Fredonia
NESCAC – Middlebury
MIAC – Bethel
NCHA – St. Norbert
Pool B, which goes to a team from a conference not eligible for an AQ will go to Manhattanville, no doubt about it. The real job of the committee will be to pick the three other at-large teams. Teams in the running are Oswego, Neumann, Norwich, UW-River Falls, UW-Stout, and UW-Superior.
Based on the NCAA regional polls done prior to this weekend, we had:
East:
1. Mass-Dartmouth (won this weekend)
2. Manhattanville (won this weekend)
3. Oswego (did not play)
4. Norwich (lost)
5. Neumann (lost)
West:
1. St. Norbert (won this weekend)
2. UWRF (did not play)
3. UW-Stout (did not play)
4. UW-Superior (did not play)
Let’s look at the individual comparisons of the various teams:
Neumann vs Oswego WIN 0.7000 0 0.8200 1 QOW 10.1852 1 9.8400 0 H2H 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0 COP 11- 3- 3 1 10- 3- 2 0 RNK 7- 4- 4 0 4- 2- 2 1 ============================================ PTS 2 2 Neumann vs Wis.-River Falls WIN 0.7000 0 0.7857 1 QOW 10.1852 1 9.5000 0 H2H 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0 COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0 RNK 7- 4- 4 0 6- 4- 0 0 ============================================ PTS 1 1 Neumann vs Wis.-Stout WIN 0.7000 0 0.8148 1 QOW 10.1852 1 9.6071 0 H2H 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0 COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0 RNK 7- 4- 4 1 4- 4- 1 0 ============================================ PTS 2 1 Neumann vs Wis.-Superior WIN 0.7000 0 0.7500 1 QOW 10.1852 1 9.7778 0 H2H 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0 COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0 RNK 7- 4- 4 1 7- 5- 0 0 ============================================ PTS 2 1 ============================================ Neumann vs Norwich WIN 0.7000 0 0.7600 1 QOW 10.1852 1 9.4000 0 H2H 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0 COP 6- 1- 1 1 4- 2- 0 0 RNK 7- 4- 4 0 8- 2- 0 1 ============================================ PTS 2 2 Oswego vs Wis.-River Falls WIN 0.8200 1 0.7857 0 QOW 9.8400 1 9.5000 0 H2H 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0 COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0 RNK 4- 2- 2 1 6- 4- 0 0 ============================================ PTS 3 0 Oswego vs Wis.-Stout WIN 0.8200 1 0.8148 0 QOW 9.8400 1 9.6071 0 H2H 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0 COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0 RNK 4- 2- 2 1 4- 4- 1 0 ============================================ PTS 3 0 Oswego vs Wis.-Superior WIN 0.8200 1 0.7500 0 QOW 9.8400 1 9.7778 0 H2H 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0 COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0 RNK 4- 2- 2 1 7- 5- 0 0 ============================================ PTS 3 0 Norwich vs Oswego WIN 0.7600 0 0.8200 1 QOW 9.4000 0 9.8400 1 H2H 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0 COP 4- 2- 0 0 5- 2- 1 1 RNK 8- 2- 0 1 4- 2- 2 0 ============================================ PTS 1 3 Norwich vs Wis.-River Falls WIN 0.7600 0 0.7857 1 QOW 9.4000 0 9.5000 1 H2H 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0 COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0 RNK 8- 2- 0 1 6- 4- 0 0 ============================================ PTS 1 2 Norwich vs Wis.-Stout WIN 0.7600 0 0.8148 1 QOW 9.4000 0 9.6071 1 H2H 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0 COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0 RNK 8- 2- 0 1 4- 4- 1 0 ============================================ PTS 1 2 Norwich vs Wis.-Superior WIN 0.7600 1 0.7500 0 QOW 9.4000 0 9.7778 1 H2H 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0 COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0 RNK 8- 2- 0 1 7- 5- 0 0 ============================================ PTS 2 1 Wis.-River Falls vs Wis.-Stout WIN 0.7857 0 0.8148 1 QOW 9.5000 0 9.6071 1 H2H 2- 0- 0 1 0- 2- 0 0 COP 18- 5- 1 0 19- 2- 2 1 RNK 6- 4- 0 1 4- 4- 1 0 ============================================ PTS 2 3 Wis.-River Falls vs Wis.-Superior WIN 0.7857 1 0.7500 0 QOW 9.5000 0 9.7778 1 H2H 1- 1- 0 0 1- 1- 0 0 COP 16- 4- 1 0 16- 4- 1 0 RNK 6- 4- 0 1 7- 5- 0 0 ============================================ PTS 2 1 Wis.-Stout vs Wis.-Superior WIN 0.8148 1 0.7500 0 QOW 9.6071 0 9.7778 1 H2H 1- 1- 0 0 1- 1- 0 0 COP 16- 3- 2 1 15- 4- 1 0 RNK 4- 4- 1 0 7- 5- 0 1 ============================================ PTS 2 2
Whew! Based on all that, I think Oswego and UWRF are in. That leaves one team left…Stout, Norwich, Neumann, Superior. Norwich actually stands up pretty well against Neumann, but not so great against any of the others. Superior doesn’t fare as well, but has the whole consipracy theory angle, since they are the host school. I’m changed my mind on this one and can’t find a way for the committee to justify this, so UWS is out.
That leaves Neumann and UW-Stout.
Neumann vs Wis.-Stout WIN 0.7000 0 0.8148 1 QOW 10.1852 1 9.6071 0 H2H 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0 COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0 RNK 7- 4- 4 1 4- 4- 1 0 ============================================ PTS 2 1
Stout has the better winning percentage but has played an easier schedule. The teams did in fact meet head-to-head this season (Neumann won 4-3 in the semifinals of the MSOE Thanksgiving Tournament) but the committee isn’t supposed to consider it, since it was an inter-region game.
Here’s where I think the travel may come in. Pick Neumann and you have to fly three teams. Pick Stout and you have to fly two teams. Plus, the NCAA has seemed to put more weight on winning percentage. For that reason, my prediction is UW-Stout.
So now we my predictions for seeds and pairings:
1E Manhattanville
2E Mass-Dartmouth
3E Oswego
4E Babson
5E Middlebury (close with Babson)
6E Fredonia
1W St. Norbert
2W UW-River Falls
3W UW-Stout
4W Bethel
Play-in Round:
Fredonia at Oswego
Middlebury at Babson
Quarterfinals:
Fredonia/Oswego at Manhattanville
Babson/Middlebury at Mass-Dartmouth (yes, I think the Corsairs can host in their rink)
Bethel at St. Norbert
Stout at River Falls
And on to Superior.
We’ll know in a few hours how wrong I am.
