The PairWise Predictor, and where we stand entering conference championship weekend

When the conference tournament quarterfinal round wrapped up Sunday night, we rolled out our PairWise Predictor, which lets you see how the rankings react based on results you enter for the final 21 games before selection Sunday.

Give it a try and see if you can come up with interesting scenarios for the field of 16 that’ll be announced Sunday. (Share any noteworthy results in the comments below or tweet them to @USCHO.)

Out of curiosity, I was wondering if we could get three NCHC teams as No. 1 seeds — it hasn’t happened since 2005, when the WCHA put Denver, Colorado College and Minnesota on the top line and North Dakota joined them in an all-WCHA Frozen Four.

It’s possible to get North Dakota, St. Cloud State and Denver as No. 1 seeds this season, but it might require a specific and unusual result: a tie between the Fighting Hawks and the Huskies in the NCHC’s third-place game in addition to the Pioneers winning two games.

Here’s a link to a scenario that generates three NCHC teams on the top line.

Meanwhile, thanks to the work of Jim Dahl at CollegeHockeyRanked.com, we know that there are nine teams that are locks to make the field of 16:

North Dakota
Quinnipiac
St. Cloud State
Providence
Boston College
Denver
Michigan
UMass-Lowell
Boston University

Dahl ran all 3,145,728 possible outcomes for the 21 games that will be played Thursday through Saturday and came up with the chances for each team to be selected for the NCAAs.

From that, we see that seven teams are still in the hunt for an at-large bid to the tournament, with varying levels of hope.

Yale (98.8%)
Notre Dame (93.1%)
Harvard (86.2%)
Minnesota-Duluth (51.4%)
Northeastern (40.1%)
Michigan Tech (29.1%)
Cornell (1.3%)

Yale, Notre Dame and Cornell all are out of their conference tournaments and can do nothing but keep their fingers crossed.

There are 14 other teams left in conference tournaments that can make the NCAA tournament only via the automatic bid that comes with the championship:

Robert Morris
Air Force
Rochester Institute of Technology
Army West Point
Minnesota
Penn State
Ohio State
Michigan State
Wisconsin
St. Lawrence
Dartmouth
Minnesota State
Bowling Green
Ferris State

Check out Jim’s site for more details, and play with the PairWise Predictor to see for yourself.

For more information on how the PairWise Rankings work, see our explanation of the PWR and our FAQ on the NCAA tournament selection process.

64 COMMENTS

  1. So does that mean that Troy Grosenick and Brian Dumoulin are out of the running for the Hobey HT since they will be 1500 miles away in Florida that weekend???  Odd.

  2. So does that mean that Troy Grosenick and Brian Dumoulin are out of the running for the Hobey HT since they will be 1500 miles away in Florida that weekend???  Odd.

  3. MacDill Air Force Base (AFB) (IATA: MCF, ICAO: KMCF, FAA LID: MCF) is an active United States Air Force base located approximately 4 miles (6.4 km) south-southwest of downtown Tampa, Florida.

  4. MacDill Air Force Base (AFB) (IATA: MCF, ICAO: KMCF, FAA LID: MCF) is an active United States Air Force base located approximately 4 miles (6.4 km) south-southwest of downtown Tampa, Florida.

  5. so, how can you get tickets? or can you? is the evnt at Channelside open to everyone? (similar to the Fan Fests they’ve had in other locations in recent years?)

    • I guess it depends on how many people they can seat, which is still up in the air depending on the finalists. Channelside should be an open event as far as I can tell. But I believe that’s just the site for Friday night. Before games Thursday and Saturday the Frozen Fest is taking place outside the arena.

  6. so, how can you get tickets? or can you? is the evnt at Channelside open to everyone? (similar to the Fan Fests they’ve had in other locations in recent years?)

    • I guess it depends on how many people they can seat, which is still up in the air depending on the finalists. Channelside should be an open event as far as I can tell. But I believe that’s just the site for Friday night. Before games Thursday and Saturday the Frozen Fest is taking place outside the arena.

  7. Too bad the Decathalon  Club  (founder of the award) was torn down. They had a great room. Air Force base beats the mall.

  8. Too bad the Decathalon  Club  (founder of the award) was torn down. They had a great room. Air Force base beats the mall.

  9. Pretty disappointed, I was hopping/planning on attending the ceremony, but sounds like I won’t be able to (or it will be extremely hard to get tickets).

    •  While I like the fact that it reflects on Hobey’s life, I feel the same as you wmcauliffe.  I attend the FF every year and have made Friday nights part of the trip.  The skills challenge was always fun and even when they did away with that, I could at least still attend the Humanitarian and Hobey awards.  I guess that won’t be happening this year

  10. Pretty disappointed, I was hopping/planning on attending the ceremony, but sounds like I won’t be able to (or it will be extremely hard to get tickets).

    •  While I like the fact that it reflects on Hobey’s life, I feel the same as you wmcauliffe.  I attend the FF every year and have made Friday nights part of the trip.  The skills challenge was always fun and even when they did away with that, I could at least still attend the Humanitarian and Hobey awards.  I guess that won’t be happening this year

  11. Back in 1992 I believe, at St Paul, a group of us Hockey-L folks found out where the Hobey Baker ceremony was going to be and went, collecting our press materials as we walked in the door.  Apparently the fact that fans came to the event made an impression and the event got more and more elaborate, including being charged for as part of the fan fest admittance.  I don’t think we ever thought that it would draw thousands of people – we just wanted to watch.  Now it is back to a small venue – no objections here, but it was fun when we were able to get in for a while before it became a circus.  

  12. Back in 1992 I believe, at St Paul, a group of us Hockey-L folks found out where the Hobey Baker ceremony was going to be and went, collecting our press materials as we walked in the door.  Apparently the fact that fans came to the event made an impression and the event got more and more elaborate, including being charged for as part of the fan fest admittance.  I don’t think we ever thought that it would draw thousands of people – we just wanted to watch.  Now it is back to a small venue – no objections here, but it was fun when we were able to get in for a while before it became a circus.  

  13. Thanks for the article, Todd.  Like Paula, I’ve been to the Hobey events since before they were public and TV events.  While I could take the 45-minute, 46-stop bus ride to MacDill, a 250-seat room would seem to have little, if any, room beyond TV production, media, family and AFB personnel.

    We will come back from the beach long enough to greet Spencer and the other Hobie Hat Trick winners at Channelside at their autograph session.  Maybe Spencer will need a couple of people to fill out his contingent?  ;-)

  14. Thanks for the article, Todd.  Like Paula, I’ve been to the Hobey events since before they were public and TV events.  While I could take the 45-minute, 46-stop bus ride to MacDill, a 250-seat room would seem to have little, if any, room beyond TV production, media, family and AFB personnel.

    We will come back from the beach long enough to greet Spencer and the other Hobie Hat Trick winners at Channelside at their autograph session.  Maybe Spencer will need a couple of people to fill out his contingent?  ;-)

  15. My wife and I have attended every Hobey Baker ceremony that we have had tickets to the Frozen Four.  I attended last year’s Awards Banquet as I was in town for the NHL Draft.  We were looking forward to this year’s ceremony.  The Frozen Four weekend will be a little less enjoyable without the attending the Hobey Baker ceremony.

  16. My wife and I have attended every Hobey Baker ceremony that we have had tickets to the Frozen Four.  I attended last year’s Awards Banquet as I was in town for the NHL Draft.  We were looking forward to this year’s ceremony.  The Frozen Four weekend will be a little less enjoyable without the attending the Hobey Baker ceremony.

  17. I had a great time attending the event at Faneuil Hall in Boston in 2004 to see Junior will the award. That was a smaller venue, but I’m pretty sure it held more than 250 people. My guess is that this year the interest from fans to get to the event will be down considering none of the three finalists’ teams made the FF.

  18. I had a great time attending the event at Faneuil Hall in Boston in 2004 to see Junior will the award. That was a smaller venue, but I’m pretty sure it held more than 250 people. My guess is that this year the interest from fans to get to the event will be down considering none of the three finalists’ teams made the FF.

  19. Shaping up to be a great NCAA tournament!

    9 locks and 3 near locks. Looks like ultimately 4 spots TBD. Will have to see how many of those are AQ’s…we know at least one (AHA) will be.

  20. Shaping up to be a great NCAA tournament!

    9 locks and 3 near locks. Looks like ultimately 4 spots TBD. Will have to see how many of those are AQ’s…we know at least one (AHA) will be.

  21. Lots on the line for 14 teams, none more so than the Gophers. After a “bipolar” season, can they win their conference tourney, and, will making the NCAA’s save Coach Lucia’s job?

    Fighting Sioux are looking like serious favorites, but probably have the toughest conference tourney going. To win the NCHC regular season with only 4 losses, is an amazing testimate to this team.

    Best time of the year across College Hockey Nation: tourney time!!!

    • As we are continuously reminded….5-time repeat conference champs. Ha!

      Yet i agree with you, seems like Lucia’s head is, and has been for the past several years, on the chopping block.

      Would love to see Sioux v Gophs in St. Paul come the first round of the NCAA.

      • It would be great, one team with nothing to lose & one with everything on the line: College Playoff Hockey! Would be like Holy Cross-vs- Gophers back in the day :))). OK: a guy gotta have some fun!

        • I was at that series. The shock and disbelief was like nothing I’ve ever seen before. The crowd was louder in the 3rd period of the Holy Cross vs UM game than it was for the whole UND vs Mich game. Crazy!

          Then the crowd turned on the Purple Gopher Eaters in the Champ game. haha.

    • The NCHC is a monster of a conference, but Hockey East isn’t too shabby either. Lowell pounded a BU team that beat Denver. PC and BC are very strong and Northeastern and Lowell are heating up. Think of a tourney of the top 4 NCHC teams vs. the top 4 in HE. That would be awesome. Seems like the best of the NCHC are the ones left playing. BU and Notre Dame are pretty good teams that are just waiting it out. Great time of year.

  22. Lots on the line for 14 teams, none more so than the Gophers. After a “bipolar” season, can they win their conference tourney, and, will making the NCAA’s save Coach Lucia’s job?

    Fighting Sioux are looking like serious favorites, but probably have the toughest conference tourney going. To win the NCHC regular season with only 4 losses, is an amazing testimate to this team.

    Best time of the year across College Hockey Nation: tourney time!!!

    • As we are continuously reminded….5-time repeat conference champs. Ha!

      Yet i agree with you, seems like Lucia’s head is, and has been for the past several years, on the chopping block.

      Would love to see Sioux v Gophs in St. Paul come the first round of the NCAA.

      • It would be great, one team with nothing to lose & one with everything on the line: College Playoff Hockey! Would be like Holy Cross-vs- Gophers back in the day :))). OK: a guy gotta have some fun!

        • I was at that series. The shock and disbelief was like nothing I’ve ever seen before. The crowd was louder in the 3rd period of the Holy Cross vs UM game than it was for the whole UND vs Mich game. Crazy!

          Then the crowd turned on the Purple Gopher Eaters in the Champ game. haha.

    • The NCHC is a monster of a conference, but Hockey East isn’t too shabby either. Lowell pounded a BU team that beat Denver. PC and BC are very strong and Northeastern and Lowell are heating up. Think of a tourney of the top 4 NCHC teams vs. the top 4 in HE. That would be awesome. Seems like the best of the NCHC are the ones left playing. BU and Notre Dame are pretty good teams that are just waiting it out. Great time of year.

  23. Would be an exciting weekend if St. Cloud, UND, and gophers all end up in West regional. Filling up the Xcel wouldn’t be an issue!

  24. Would be an exciting weekend if St. Cloud, UND, and gophers all end up in West regional. Filling up the Xcel wouldn’t be an issue!

  25. This is a great write up. I don’t follow collegiate hockey terribly closely until this time of year, this got me totally up to speed. Thanks, Todd.

  26. This is a great write up. I don’t follow collegiate hockey terribly closely until this time of year, this got me totally up to speed. Thanks, Todd.

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