Bracketology 2/16

All set for version 2.0? We’ll be using the NCAA rankings for this one rather than USCHO PWR. See my previous blog post for the details, but to summarize – we can’t figure out some of the reasoning behind the NCAA rankings, but they’re the official ones, so that’s what we’ll use. AS some point I will probably do two versions – one with USCHO’s PWR (or maybe the KRACH).

Same assumptions as last time.

If the season ended today, the AQs would go to:

ECAC East — Norwich (wins tiebreaker with Southern Maine)

ECAC Northeast — Curry

MIAC — Bethel

NCHA — Wisconsin-River Falls (wins tiebreaker with UW-Stout and St. Norbert)

NESCAC — Bowdoin

SUNYAC — Oswego

Using the PWR:

The Pool B bid goes to Manhattanville, which is the top Pool B team in the PWR and is 3-0-1 in individual matchups over Neumann, the next closest Pool B team.

I’m guessing that the Pool C bids at the moment go to St. Norbert, Mass-Dartmouth and UW-Stout right now. Neumann actually wins head-to-head the PWR comparisons with UW-Stout, taking the Quality Wins and record against ranked teams comparisons, while the Blue Devils have a better winning percentage. But Neumann’s margins are so slim that I think the committee would favor Stout. This is one of those cross-region decisions that will be a tossup on Selection Sunday.

Also, UMass-Dartmouth is a Pool C team right now because of the assumption I made about taking the team currently in first place for the AQ. I’m predicting Mass-Dartmouth, which trails Curry by 2 points with a game in hand and holds the tiebreaker, will win the ECAC Northeast regular season title. If the Corsairs don’t win the AQ, it will be interesting to see how they stack up with, say, UW-Superior. On paper, UMD leads in the criteria, but Superior has played a tougher schedule…and is hosting.

That leaves us a field of (ranked by NCAA Rankings):

East:

  1. Manhattanville
  2. Oswego
  3. Norwich
  4. Mass-Dartmouth
  5. Bowdoin
  6. Curry

West:

  1. St. Norbert
  2. UW-River Falls
  3. UW-Stout
  4. Bethel

This would mean the first round would be:

  • Curry at Norwich
  • Bowdoin at Mass-Dartmouth

Quaterfinals would be:

  • Curry/Norwich at Manhattanville
  • Bowdoin/Mass-Dartmouth at Oswego
  • Bethel at St. Norbert
  • UW-Stout at UW-River Falls

Winners meet in Superior.

58 COMMENTS

  1. Really going out on a limb there Tyler, how about picking each night. It’s pretty easy to pick splits and such when you don’t say which night goes which way.

  2. Really going out on a limb there Tyler, how about picking each night. It’s pretty easy to pick splits and such when you don’t say which night goes which way.

  3. Tyler, Tech’s place in the WCHA
    What happened to unbiased reporting.
    Your writing leaves a lot to be desired.

    Go Tech, shut these idiot writers up…

  4. Tyler, Tech’s place in the WCHA
    What happened to unbiased reporting.
    Your writing leaves a lot to be desired.

    Go Tech, shut these idiot writers up…

  5. UMD elected the refs MVP. They did a nice job insuring the result.

    And for you Sue #1, you don’t last year so well, do you.

  6. UMD elected the refs MVP. They did a nice job insuring the result.

    And for you Sue #1, you don’t last year so well, do you.

  7. if you werent at this game then shut it down. Yale’s hottest player of late gets a goal to bring it to 3-1 then next play lays out a UMD player. no call till twenty seconds later, which they then said was a five minute major and kicked him out of the game. yale guy gets back checked into the UMD goalie and penalty is on Yale. another guy gets back checked and hits wall while falling over and the UMD guy trips over him, penalty? oh you got it, only the ref on the far opposite end of the ice called it on the yale guy who got back-checked first.

    one play usually doesnt cost a team a game…unless that play is a crazy call, kicking out the hottest player on the ice for a call that even barry melrose on espnu said, should have only been a two-minute minor.

    UMD-goalie played sick, and they took care of their chances. im not trying to take anything away from them, they played great all weekend but people who are just bashing yale and have no clue what even went on need to stop

    • ECAC got their ASSES kicked by the WCHA. Finally this Yale garbage is over. They finally played a legit team and backed up what everyone was saying for a long time. I still want to know who the 1 person was that gave Yale a first place vote the last few weeks. ECAC is garbage as is Yale. This shows how flawed the pairwise can be. Yale would not have hosted a playoff series in the WCHA. I feel bad for teams like Wisco and Minnesota that don’t get to play the schedule the ECAC does. This is why they play the games and why we need to refigure how we pick teams for this tournament. If you beat up on nobodys all year you should not be rewarded like Yale was.

      • i guess they dont teach people how to read in the west…i said UMD played great and i even thought they outplayed yale. if you read you also would have read about the absurd second period call that halted any chance at yale winning. take the best player off an team and then give the other team a five minute man up, a lot of teams are gonna lose if that happens to them

        • Seriously? do you think if you either Connelly for UMD off the ice they would have lost? I don’t think so. That’s the difference between a good team and bunch of posers like Yale. Good teams have more than 1 guy and no team wins with 1 guy. I’m a diehard UMD fan but UMD isn’t even that good compared to the UND or Denver. UMD is highly skilled but not as deep as the other WCHA teams. The O’Neill kid isn’t even that good! The reality is that UMD tallied their goals off those power plays early so it didn’t matter whether the kid got a 5 minute major or a minute minor. I agree the kid shouldn’t have been kicked out but it was clearly an interferrence call based on the game these East Coast refs were calling. Brady Lamb got called for interference for the same thing except the Yale kid was actually touching the puck when he got hit (which is not interference – ask your buddy Melrose). These teams (Yale and Union) wouldn’t finish in the top 8 in the WCHA. No offense but this is reality. As much as I hate the Gophers and Badgers (I do respect the
          Badgers program), they got screwed by the NCAA allowing these types of teams into the NCAA tournament. Unless the committee is trying to create some type of “Miracle” moment where one these teams somehow “shock the world” and win 4 games in a row, they shouldn’t if you want the best 16 teams in the country. And don’t give me the “ya, well Yale beat UND last year!” because anybody can be beat in a single game format. These teams (ECAC and Atlantic Hockey) should move down to D2.

          • people like you are why EVERYONE hates the WCHA. i said umd outplayed yale but you just sound dumb saying they should move to d2. oh of course beating und is a fluke, god forbid a team should outplay a wcha team. umd was the better team tonight but you cant say that call didnt change the game. oh ya yale cant hang with the big boys…they beat colorado college 5-1 AT Colorado College earlier this year, swept the series with Quinnipiac who BEAT UNO TWICE THIS YEAR beat UND last year, fell by one to BC who would go on to win the championship: all tournament teams. All i was saying in my first post was how bad the refs were and that they played way too big of a part in this game. Would UMD have won anyway? probably. You guys just ruin these things because when your team wins you bash the other team. And actually thanks for bringing up the “anybody can be beat in a single game format” from your post because to be honest i feel like thats what happened tonight. I hope UMD plays well in the Frozen Four, they have a great goalie and just great team chemistry but just stop bashing everyone else because thats why everyone hates on the WCHA on here, because of people like you.

          • Wait and how can you say the five minute major didnt matter, they scored their goals early? Yale just scored and had the momentum, whose to say they get a few more…when you have your best player on the ice for a full game crazy stuff like that actually happens. Im not saying it would have definitely happened, but it could have.

      • Perhaps you can explain how Yale beat Colorado College (at Colorado Springs) 5-1 during regular season play??? If they beat up on ‘nobodys’ as you say, then what does that say about the WCHA?

  8. if you werent at this game then shut it down. Yale’s hottest player of late gets a goal to bring it to 3-1 then next play lays out a UMD player. no call till twenty seconds later, which they then said was a five minute major and kicked him out of the game. yale guy gets back checked into the UMD goalie and penalty is on Yale. another guy gets back checked and hits wall while falling over and the UMD guy trips over him, penalty? oh you got it, only the ref on the far opposite end of the ice called it on the yale guy who got back-checked first.

    one play usually doesnt cost a team a game…unless that play is a crazy call, kicking out the hottest player on the ice for a call that even barry melrose on espnu said, should have only been a two-minute minor.

    UMD-goalie played sick, and they took care of their chances. im not trying to take anything away from them, they played great all weekend but people who are just bashing yale and have no clue what even went on need to stop

    • ECAC got their ASSES kicked by the WCHA. Finally this Yale garbage is over. They finally played a legit team and backed up what everyone was saying for a long time. I still want to know who the 1 person was that gave Yale a first place vote the last few weeks. ECAC is garbage as is Yale. This shows how flawed the pairwise can be. Yale would not have hosted a playoff series in the WCHA. I feel bad for teams like Wisco and Minnesota that don’t get to play the schedule the ECAC does. This is why they play the games and why we need to refigure how we pick teams for this tournament. If you beat up on nobodys all year you should not be rewarded like Yale was.

      • i guess they dont teach people how to read in the west…i said UMD played great and i even thought they outplayed yale. if you read you also would have read about the absurd second period call that halted any chance at yale winning. take the best player off an team and then give the other team a five minute man up, a lot of teams are gonna lose if that happens to them

        • Seriously? do you think if you either Connelly for UMD off the ice they would have lost? I don’t think so. That’s the difference between a good team and bunch of posers like Yale. Good teams have more than 1 guy and no team wins with 1 guy. I’m a diehard UMD fan but UMD isn’t even that good compared to the UND or Denver. UMD is highly skilled but not as deep as the other WCHA teams. The O’Neill kid isn’t even that good! The reality is that UMD tallied their goals off those power plays early so it didn’t matter whether the kid got a 5 minute major or a minute minor. I agree the kid shouldn’t have been kicked out but it was clearly an interferrence call based on the game these East Coast refs were calling. Brady Lamb got called for interference for the same thing except the Yale kid was actually touching the puck when he got hit (which is not interference – ask your buddy Melrose). These teams (Yale and Union) wouldn’t finish in the top 8 in the WCHA. No offense but this is reality. As much as I hate the Gophers and Badgers (I do respect the
          Badgers program), they got screwed by the NCAA allowing these types of teams into the NCAA tournament. Unless the committee is trying to create some type of “Miracle” moment where one these teams somehow “shock the world” and win 4 games in a row, they shouldn’t if you want the best 16 teams in the country. And don’t give me the “ya, well Yale beat UND last year!” because anybody can be beat in a single game format. These teams (ECAC and Atlantic Hockey) should move down to D2.

          • people like you are why EVERYONE hates the WCHA. i said umd outplayed yale but you just sound dumb saying they should move to d2. oh of course beating und is a fluke, god forbid a team should outplay a wcha team. umd was the better team tonight but you cant say that call didnt change the game. oh ya yale cant hang with the big boys…they beat colorado college 5-1 AT Colorado College earlier this year, swept the series with Quinnipiac who BEAT UNO TWICE THIS YEAR beat UND last year, fell by one to BC who would go on to win the championship: all tournament teams. All i was saying in my first post was how bad the refs were and that they played way too big of a part in this game. Would UMD have won anyway? probably. You guys just ruin these things because when your team wins you bash the other team. And actually thanks for bringing up the “anybody can be beat in a single game format” from your post because to be honest i feel like thats what happened tonight. I hope UMD plays well in the Frozen Four, they have a great goalie and just great team chemistry but just stop bashing everyone else because thats why everyone hates on the WCHA on here, because of people like you.

          • Wait and how can you say the five minute major didnt matter, they scored their goals early? Yale just scored and had the momentum, whose to say they get a few more…when you have your best player on the ice for a full game crazy stuff like that actually happens. Im not saying it would have definitely happened, but it could have.

      • Perhaps you can explain how Yale beat Colorado College (at Colorado Springs) 5-1 during regular season play??? If they beat up on ‘nobodys’ as you say, then what does that say about the WCHA?

  9. Referees ruined the game, gifted it to UMD in the first and second period. No call for tripping Broc Little in the first period, leading to the first UMD goal? Ejecting O’Neill for a perfectly executed check? Disgraceful.

  10. Referees ruined the game, gifted it to UMD in the first and second period. No call for tripping Broc Little in the first period, leading to the first UMD goal? Ejecting O’Neill for a perfectly executed check? Disgraceful.

  11. Couldn’t sleep. Spent the night trying to figure out how someone can blow a whistle when their head is so far up their butt they must be trying to see the game through their navel! Just sayin’!

  12. Couldn’t sleep. Spent the night trying to figure out how someone can blow a whistle when their head is so far up their butt they must be trying to see the game through their navel! Just sayin’!

  13. ECAC hockey is so weak… Unfortunately you got to see what happens when a team only has 1 good player. It was a terrible call but the real Bulldogs were up 3-1 already… If UMD lost Fontaine at that point other guys step up period. I hope all you east coasters enjoy the Frozen Four with all WCHA teams basically lol

  14. ECAC hockey is so weak… Unfortunately you got to see what happens when a team only has 1 good player. It was a terrible call but the real Bulldogs were up 3-1 already… If UMD lost Fontaine at that point other guys step up period. I hope all you east coasters enjoy the Frozen Four with all WCHA teams basically lol

  15. Yale was a good team, it didn’t go their way last night, Union was a good team, same result. Eastern refs call things very close. If it was WCHA officiating it would have been a much different game. I still think UMD would have won but Eastern refs ARE DIFFERENT. The game is 60 minutes and good teams are resilient and make the most of their opportunities, Yale failed to convert, as did Union, on numerous chances in the first, UMD got a shorty.
    Which conference is better….well year in and year out the WCHA send 5 -6 to the NCAA’s. 13 titles in the past 30 years, (CCHA-8 & HE-7), 36 since 1951.
    14 Hobey Baker winners, with most likely the 15th in Matt Frattin this year.
    Has a Boston team won the last 3..yeah but Minnesota won 2 in a row followed by Denver a few years back with Wisconsin mixed in…a 5 year dominance (as well as 6 Hobey’s in a row). No other conference has placed 4 in the final, which really ticked off the NCAA and eastern apologists. Are there good teams throughout the country yes…but numbers and history speak for themselves. Maybe UNH can carry the banner this year…maybe not.
    I ilke watching great hockey and this years tourney has been fun to watch.
    Good luck to my Dog’s and to Michigan, and the other 2 yet to be decided.
    Birdog

  16. Yale was a good team, it didn’t go their way last night, Union was a good team, same result. Eastern refs call things very close. If it was WCHA officiating it would have been a much different game. I still think UMD would have won but Eastern refs ARE DIFFERENT. The game is 60 minutes and good teams are resilient and make the most of their opportunities, Yale failed to convert, as did Union, on numerous chances in the first, UMD got a shorty.
    Which conference is better….well year in and year out the WCHA send 5 -6 to the NCAA’s. 13 titles in the past 30 years, (CCHA-8 & HE-7), 36 since 1951.
    14 Hobey Baker winners, with most likely the 15th in Matt Frattin this year.
    Has a Boston team won the last 3..yeah but Minnesota won 2 in a row followed by Denver a few years back with Wisconsin mixed in…a 5 year dominance (as well as 6 Hobey’s in a row). No other conference has placed 4 in the final, which really ticked off the NCAA and eastern apologists. Are there good teams throughout the country yes…but numbers and history speak for themselves. Maybe UNH can carry the banner this year…maybe not.
    I ilke watching great hockey and this years tourney has been fun to watch.
    Good luck to my Dog’s and to Michigan, and the other 2 yet to be decided.
    Birdog

  17. Jim, PC and Lowell also played 5 straight last year. Just thrilled to see Lowell win this though, not just as a Lowell fan, but someone who’s (right or wrong) sick of the Big 4.

  18. Congrats to Lowell, it is quite a turnaround for the season to win the title, something to be proud of.

    Now it’s time for the BC Invitational. Lets see who’s brought their “big-boy” pants as we head into win or go home territory, and if UVM can be something more than a team that Gaudreau uses just to pad his stats.

  19. Maine may have won the season series against Lowell 2-1, but Connor Hellebuyck spent a grand total of zero seconds in goal for Lowell in those three games.

    Maine seems a little scary because they’ve been on bit of a hot streak, but that streak came against Northeastern and Amherst, the only teams who missed the playoffs, and a UNH team that had a legitimate chance to win first place (and probably should have finished in second) but instead for some reason gave away three points to a ninth-place Maine team and personally gift-wrapped Maine’s surprise bus tickets to Lowell.

    Lowell, on the other hand, has been playing out of their minds since Christmas.

  20. “But as many say, it’s difficult to beat a team four times in a season.”

    Not if you’ve beaten them 3 times already. The quoted statement is a classic misunderstanding or misapplication of probability.

    You are far less likely to beat a team 4 times in a row if you haven’t played them (because you have to win four in a row) than if you’ve already beaten them 3 times in a row (because you only have to win 1 game in order to have beaten them 4 times in a row).

    BU’s chances of beating Merrimack in the 1st round are exactly the same as Merrimack’s chances of beating BU in the 1st round. No better, no worse.

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here