Candace’s Picks: November 12

Well, the stats definitely went down last weekend. I knew I was going out on a limb to pick a Wisconsin sweep of Minnesota in Minnesota, but I figured Mercyhurst over Niagara was a sure thing, as was a sweep of Bemidji State by Minnesota-Duluth. Throw in a few ties, and the underdogs got the best of me, as I went 7-3-2 (.666). On the year, I am 36-10-6 (.750). Let’s see if I can boost that this week, shall we?

Friday Saturday Nov. 12-13

Vermont at BU: Though the Catamounts pulled a surprise by tying Boston College last Sunday, the Terriers are looking like the class of Hockey East this year. BU 5-2, 5-1

Boston College at St. Lawrence: This series is a little hard to predict. Though the Eagles are still undefeated, they’ve had a few letdowns in ties against Quinnipiac and Vermont. St. Lawrence has fallen off from the days when they were an ECAC powerhouse. I think the Eagles have enough for the sweep. Boston College 4-2, 4-3

North Dakota at Bemidji State: Both of these teams have shown flashes of being ready to join the WCHA elite troika this season, and both have also been wildly inconsistent, splitting most of their series. I think a split is in order again. North Dakota 5-3, Bemidji State 3-2

Minnesota State at Ohio State: The Mavericks have just enough talent to put a scare into the Buckeyes, but aside from an upset of North Dakota, have shown they are a level below the WCHA’s best. Buckeyes should sweep this one. Ohio State 3-1, 5-2

Friday, November 12

Harvard at Quinnipiac: The Bobcats have shown they are ready to move up in the ECAC. If they are to take the next step, this is the type of game they have to win. Unfortunately, I don’t think they are strong enough. Harvard 4-2

Saturday-Sunday November 13-14

New Hampshire against Connecticut: This is a home and home, with the Wildcats hosting Friday and the Huskies hosting on Saturday. The Wildcats have Lindsey Minton in net, and that should be enough for the sweep. New Hampshire 4-2, 3-1

Saturday, November 13

Harvard at Princeton: Harvard may have a few more rivals for the ECAC title than they used to, but the Tigers haven’t stepped up into that level yet. Harvard 4-1

11 COMMENTS

  1. Meanwhile, the PWR has UND at #13 in the nation. I know it is simply math but does anyone have alot of faith in the formula now?

    • It is way too early in the season to pay any attention to that. As the season goes on things get evened out, and wins against easy opponents are removed so they don’t hurt the standings. We beat Lake Superior (2-7-0) tied Maine (0-5-3), beat and tied Bemidji (2-4-2), swept Vermont (2-4-1) and CC (0-8-0). That means our opponents have a combined record of 6-28-6. Not what I would call a strong schedule, which in turn pulls down the pairwise rankings, which is fair. Later in the season either some of these teams will have improved their record to the point where it helps us, or they will be removed for the purposes of the pairwise so they don’t hurt us. Either way, I make a rule to not even think about looking at the pairwise until January at the earliest, usually February.

    • North Dakota hasn’t played a team with a pairwise above 43. I don’t think any of their opponents have a winning percentage above 0.33%. I’m not sure how ties figure in the formula, but they probably don’t help against these bottom teams. Your post is not smart or well constructed.

      North Dakota will be a number one seed if their strong play continues in the NCHC where the teams have won more than two games.

    • The PWR has problems in that it (1) doesn’t consider additions to the team, (2) doesn’t consider injuries, (3) doesn’t weigh game 1 of the season any differently than the last game of the season, (4) suspended players and a host of other related issues which truly affect wins and losses. For example, UND is playing a walk-on goalie while #1 and #2 are out. We, like some other teams, have a great many freshmen. Over the years I have seen KRACH have a higher correlation to proficiency than PWR or RPI.

    • The formula seemed fine last year when Lowell was shut out of the NCAA tournament after making it to the HE finals for the third year in a row., and six NCHC teams got in, including a barely .000 team. Having said that, you are right; the formula sucks and there must be a better way to determine who deserves to be in the tournament.

  2. Glad to see my Lowell team go up to Duluth and earn a split. I see UND being a #1 seed easily. Their 2 wins over Vermont will look better at years end. Hockey East and NCHC look to be really strong again. Should be a great year of college hockey.

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