It’s time once again for what we like to call Bracketology — college hockey style. It’s a weekly look at how the NCAA tournament might look if the season ended today.
More than that, it’s a look into the thought process behind selecting and seeding the NCAA tournament teams.
This is the eighth installment of Bracketology, and we’ll be bringing you a new one every week, until we make our final picks just before the field is announced.
Here are the facts:
• Sixteen teams are selected to participate in the national tournament.
• There are four regional sites (East – Worcester, Massachusetts, Northeast – Amherst, Massachusetts, Midwest – Grand Rapids, Mich., West – Minneapolis, Minn.)
• A host institution which is invited to the tournament plays in the regional for which it is the host, and cannot be moved.
• Seedings will not be switched, as opposed to years past. To avoid undesirable first-round matchups, including intraconference games (see below), teams will be moved among regionals, not reseeded.
Here are the NCAA’s guidelines on the matter, per a meeting of the Championship Committee:
In setting up the tournament, the committee begins with a list of priorities to ensure a successful tournament on all fronts including competitive equity, financial success and likelihood of playoff-type atmosphere at each regional site. For the model, the following is a basic set of priorities:
• The top four teams as ranked by the committee are the four No. 1 seeds and will be placed in the bracket so that if all four teams advance to the Men’s Frozen Four, the No. 1 seed will play the No. 4 seed and the No. 2 seed will play the No. 3 seed in the semifinals.
• Host institutions that qualify will be placed at home.
• No. 1 seeds are placed as close to home as possible in order of their ranking 1-4.
• Conference matchups in first round are avoided, unless five or more teams from one conference are selected, then the integrity of the bracket will be preserved.
• Once the six automatic qualifiers and 10 at-large teams are selected, the next step is to develop four groups from the committee’s ranking of 1-16. The top four teams are the No. 1 seeds. The next four are targeted as No. 2 seeds. The next four are No. 3 seeds and the last four are No. 4 seeds. These groupings will be referred to as “bands.”
Additionally, the NCAA recently clarified its selection criteria to include a bonus factor for “good” nonconference wins, which are wins against non-league opponents in the top 15 of the Ratings Percentage Index.
Given these facts, here are the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR), and all conference leaders, based on winning percentage (Quinnipiac, Michigan, Bemidji State, Cornell, Boston College and Denver) (through all games of Monday, March 7, 2005):
1t Colorado College
1t Denver
1t Boston College
4 Michigan
5t Minnesota
5t Cornell
7 Harvard
8t Ohio State
8t Wisconsin
8t Boston University
8t North Dakota
12 Dartmouth
13 New Hampshire
14t Northern Michigan
14t Maine
16t Massachusetts-Lowell
16t Colgate
29t Bemidji State
— Quinnipiac
Step One
From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.
We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add all of the conference leaders, based on winning percentage.
From there, we can start looking at the bubble in a more detailed fashion.
Breaking ties in the PWR using head-to-head comparisons among the tied teams, the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:
1 Colorado College
2 Denver
3 Boston College
4 Michigan
5 Minnesota
6 Cornell
7 Harvard
8 Ohio State
9 Wisconsin
10 Boston University
11 North Dakota
12 Dartmouth
13 New Hampshire
14 Northern Michigan
15 Bemidji State
16 Quinnipiac
All ties were broken because of individual comparison wins.
So this week, Colorado College is once again the overall No. 1 seed. Michigan is now a No. 1 seed as well, dropping Minnesota to a two. Ohio State has moved up, as has Dartmouth, and New Hampshire has dropped.
Step Two
Now it’s time to assign the seeds.
No. 1 Seeds — Colorado College, Denver, Boston College, Michigan
No. 2 Seeds — Minnesota, Cornell, Harvard, Ohio State
No. 3 Seeds — Wisconsin, Boston University, North Dakota, Dartmouth
No. 4 Seeds — New Hampshire, Northern Michigan, Bemidji State, Quinnipiac
Step Three
Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals.
We place host schools first and then place the other No. 1 seeds based on proximity to regional sites.
No. 1 Colorado College is placed in the West Regional in Minneapolis, based upon geographic proximity.
No. 2 Denver is placed in the Midwest Regional in Grand Rapids.
No. 3 Boston College is then placed in the East Regional in Worcester, based upon geographic proximity.
No. 4 Michigan is placed in the Northeast Regional in Amherst.
Step Four
Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intraconference matchups if possible.
Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (except for host schools, which must be assigned to their home regionals).
If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships are played by No. 1 v. No. 8, No. 2 v. No. 7, No. 3 v. No. 6 and No. 4 v. No. 5.
So therefore:
No. 2 Seeds
No. 5 Minnesota is placed in No. 1 Colorado College’s Regional, the West, as the host.
No. 6 Cornell is placed in No. 4 Michigan’s Regional, the Northeast.
No. 7 Harvard is placed in No. 3 Boston College’s Regional, the East.
No. 8 Ohio State is placed in No. 2 Denver’s Regional, the Midwest.
No. 3 Seeds
Our bracketing system has one Regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16, another with 2, 7, 10, 15, another with 3, 6, 11, 14 and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.
In this case with the No. 2 seeds being displaced, we’re trying to get the 8-9, 7-10, 6-11, and 5-12 matchups as close as possible.
Therefore:
No. 10 Boston University is place in No. 7 Harvard’s Regional, the East, as the host.
No. 9 Wisconsin is placed in No. 8 Ohio State’s Regional, the Midwest.
No. 11 North Dakota is placed in No. 6 Cornell’s Regional, the Northeast.
No. 12 Dartmouth is placed in No. 5 Minnesota’s Regional, the West.
No. 4 Seeds
One more time, and this time we’re going back to taking No. 16 v. No. 1, No. 15 v. No. 2, etc.
No. 16 Quinnipiac is sent to Colorado College’s Regional, the West.
No. 15 Bemidji State is sent to Denver’s Regional, the Midwest.
No. 14 Northern Michigan is sent to Boston College’s Regional, the East.
No. 13 UNH is sent to Michigan’s Regional, the Northeast.
The brackets as we have set them up:
West Regional:
Quinnipiac vs. Colorado College
Dartmouth vs. Minnesota
Midwest Regional:
Bemidji State vs. Denver
Wisconsin vs. Ohio State
East Regional:
Northern Michigan vs. Boston College
Boston University vs. Harvard
Northeast Regional:
New Hampshire vs. Michigan
North Dakota vs. Cornell
Our first concern is avoiding intraconference matchups. We do not have any, so this is our bracket.
Bracketing the Frozen Four, if all four number-one seeds advance, then the top overall seed plays the No. 4 overall, and No. 2 plays No. 3. Therefore, the winners of the West and Northeast Regionals face each other in one semifinal (Colorado College and Michigan’s brackets), while the winners of the Midwest and East Regionals (Denver and Boston College’s brackets) play the other semifinal.
Looking at the bracket, we do not have a 1, 8, 9, 16 lineup in the West regional, due to Minnesota hosting, which skews the other regionals a bit as well. But that’s okay. Remember, as long you have not violated the banding of seeds, this is acceptable, if not ideal, even though competitive equity is a little off. But it’s still okay in my book.
But…
Bonus Time
We know there is a bonus component to the criteria, the NCAA’s tweak to the system which rewards “good” nonconference wins.
Without official word on the size of the bonuses, we take these numbers: .003 for a good road win, .002 for a good neutral win and .001 for a good home win.
Now remember, nonconference wins against conference opponents do not count toward the bonus. For example, when Alaska-Anchorage defeated Minnesota in the Nye Frontier Classic, that didn’t count.
Our seedings are now:
1 Colorado College
2 Denver
3 Boston College
4 Michigan
5 Minnesota
6 Cornell
7 Harvard
8 North Dakota
9 Boston University
10 Dartmouth
11 Ohio State
12 Wisconsin
13 New Hampshire
14 Northern Michigan
15 Bemidji State
16 Quinnipiac
There are some slight differences. North Dakota moves up to a No. 2 seed and No. 8 overall on the basis of two wins at Maine, while Wisconsin is the big loser, dropping from No. 9 to No. 12.
So, using bracket-filling like above, we have one change.
West Regional:
Quinnipiac vs. Colorado College
Wisconsin vs. Minnesota
Midwest Regional:
Bemidji State vs. Denver
Dartmouth vs. North Dakota
East Regional:
Northern Michigan vs. Boston College
Boston University vs. Harvard
Northeast Regional:
New Hampshire vs. Michigan
Ohio State vs. Cornell
We need to switch out Wisconsin with someone, and the only option is to switch the Badgers with Ohio State.
So our new brackets are:
West Regional:
Quinnipiac vs. Colorado College
Ohio State vs. Minnesota
Midwest Regional:
Bemidji State vs. Denver
Dartmouth vs. North Dakota
East Regional:
Northern Michigan vs. Boston College
Boston University vs. Harvard
Northeast Regional:
New Hampshire vs. Michigan
Wisconsin vs. Cornell
So there is our bracket this week. Let me reiterate that bracket integrity is preserved, competitive equity is a little askew, but it’s okay because all the one seeds are in the proper slots, all the two seeds are in the proper spots, the three seeds are matched as well as possible with the two seeds, and the four seeds are matched exactly with the one seeds.
It’s not a perfect 1, 8, 9, 16 or 2, 7, 10, 15, but that’s within the rules.
What if we took these numbers: .005 for a good road win, .003 for a good neutral win and .001 for a good home win.
Does anything change? All the same teams are in, but there’s shuffling at the top with BC on top now, and some minor shuffling within the middle of the teams.
Our seedings:
1 Boston College
2 Colorado College
3 Denver
4 Minnesota
5 Michigan
6 Cornell
7 Harvard
8 North Dakota
9 Dartmouth
10 Ohio State
11 Wisconsin
12 Boston University
13 New Hampshire
14 Northern Michigan
15 Bemidji State
16 Quinnipiac
And our brackets:
West Regional:
New Hampshire vs. Minnesota
Wisconsin vs. Michigan
Midwest Regional:
Bemidji State vs. Colorado College
Dartmouth vs. Harvard
East Regional:
Quinnipiac vs. Boston College
Boston University vs. North Dakota
Northeast Regional:
Northern Michigan vs. Denver
Ohio State vs. Cornell
We have to take care of Dartmouth, and there’s only one option here, to switch with Wisconsin. So our brackets are:
West Regional:
New Hampshire vs. Minnesota
Dartmouth vs. Michigan
Midwest Regional:
Bemidji State vs. Colorado College
Wisconsin vs. Harvard
East Regional:
Quinnipiac vs. Boston College
Boston University vs. North Dakota
Northeast Regional:
Northern Michigan vs. Denver
Ohio State vs. Cornell
We’re good.
So the regular season is over and some things have proven themselves out. We knew Maine was on the bubble and without two wins this past weekend, they would have been out of the NCAAs going into the playoffs. That has proven true.
UML was also on the verge, which is borne out by the current brackets, from which the River Hawks are absent.
We have said all along that Miami being a TUC would help all the CCHA teams. The RedHawks are, as of now, and our evidence: Michigan now a No. 1 seed, Ohio State with a huge jump from the bubble to the middle of the pack after splitting with Miami, and Northern Michigan is again in the tournament.
UAA not presently being a TUC, has hurt Wisconsin and Minnesota a bit.
Dartmouth, despite a 2-1 series win over Yale, is in 10th place in the criteria — but still on the brink.
Everybody who has read this column regularly over the last nine weeks knows how it really works by now. You’ve seen enough to know what can happen and what to look for. And that’s what we’ve aimed to do: teach everyone about the selection process and what goes on behind it.
We’ll have more next week, the penultimate Bracketology before our prediction of the NCAA tournament comes just before Selection Sunday.
