Bracket Analysis

Well, the NCAA tournament brackets are out and there was only one surprise, that being the placement of Maine in the third-seeded band and Massachusetts in the fourth-seeded band.

Otherwise, I was right on the money.

Here are the brackets I projected after last night’s games:

West Regional:

Air Force vs. Minnesota
North Dakota vs. Michigan

Midwest Regional:

Alabama-Huntsville vs. Notre Dame
Michigan State vs. Boston University

East Regional:

Maine vs. Clarkson
Massachusetts vs. St. Cloud

Northeast Regional:

Miami vs. New Hampshire
St. Lawrence vs. Boston College

As you can see, just switch Maine and Massachusetts and you have this year’s bracket.

Sometimes I think the NCAA does this to get my goat, but maybe there was a reason.

Let’s take a look, it seems like it came down to the bubble at number 11 in the PairWise, a three-way tie between Maine, St. Lawrence and Massachusetts.

If you use the .003 bonus, you see that Massachusetts wins both comparisons with Maine and St. Lawrence. And St. Lawrence wins the comparison with Maine, meaning that Massachusetts should be 11, St. Lawrence 12 and Maine 13.

So what happened?

The only plausible reason that I can give you is that the committee ranked the three teams by RPI. Meaning that Maine was 11, St. Lawrence 12 and Massachusetts 13.

If you look at individual comparisons, Massachusetts killed Maine because of the head-to-head.

To me, there is no reason why Maine and Massachusetts were switched.

In the end the only difference is who each team is playing, but at the same time, it could make a difference in the future.

I can’t wait to hear the committee’s reason for switching Maine and Massachusetts.


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