Weekend Picks: March 11

I did pretty well last weekend in my picks, going 7-1 (.895). Evidently I forgot to pick the championship games though; woe is me. In the postseason, I am 27-12 (.692), and for the full year, I am 413-104-56 (.769_.

Let’s see how I can do in the quarterfinals of the NCAA tournament.

Saturday, March 12

Clarkson at Quinnipiac
I have to pick one upset, and this one is as likely as any. Clarkson 2-1

Northeastern at Boston College
They’ve played four times, with two blowouts and two squeakers. What will this one be, and more importantly, will the result be any different? Something tells me no. Boston College 3-2

Princeton at Minnesota
Maybe the week off helps the Tigers heal and get ready, but it won’t be enough. Minnesota 4-2

Mercyhurst at Wisconsin
Can Ann-Renée Desbiens continue her shutout streak? Wisconsin 3-0

60 COMMENTS

  1. Call me crazy Jason, but Ive got to ask being a UMaine fan……I did the predictor and if Air Force, West Mich, BG, Harvard, Cornell, Denver and of course UMaine wins…..the predictor puts Maine at a tie for 3rd in the pairwise standings….is it actually possible that Maine could get a number one seed for like Bridgeport?  Knowing BC will get the number one seed for Worcester…..so is it actually possible? Or are we looking at a number two seed no matter what?  Just curious…..Go Blue!

    •  Yes, Maine can still get a number one seed, either at three or four overall.  In the previous blog entry I listed who can still get number one seeds.  For Maine to get the number three overall seed, Union has to lose because if Union wins, it becomes the number three overall seed, and other things need to happen.

      • Jason your take on my theory RE:  “PWR – immovable objects and volatiles”

        “Volatiles”
        Since top ECAC teams (esp. Ivy’s) play less games against TUCs during the year (say 10-15 games) where top CCHA or WCHA team play more (say 20-25) the win% against TUC can shoot up more quickly at the end of the conference tournament if a team like Union or Harvard beats 3 or 4 TUCs. 

        In the case of Union – they beat a couple TUCs and that will jump the win% against TUCs faster at the end of a season, which can shoot a team up the PWR faster than a CCHA or WCHA team that has already played more games and can’t move up as quickly.. 

        The same can be said for a team that loses at the end of the year.  Unless you’ve played well against 20-25 TUCs – if you lose 3 games against TUCs and you can drop pretty fast out of the top 16… 

        “Immovables”
        That’s why BC and Michigan are immovable objects at this point – they’ve played and beaten too many TUC to be moved (significantly).

        Hence, some teams are “practically immovable and others are volatile”

        UT

  2. I think Merrimack and Notre Dame were, at some early-season points, each the #1 team in the country. Now neither team will be in the NCAAs. Amazing.

    • That’s right.

      I even found an old magazine I bought at the beginning of the year with NHL and NCAA predictions in it, where they predicted Notre Dame would win the NCAA championship. Oh, how things change.

  3. Finally, someone other than Union fans will be rooting for a Union win (except the Bears).  Ps Bears.  Thanks for the big win last night over BU – opens up a #1 seed chance for Union with a win tonight.

    UT

      • Union a great draw for the no. 2 seed in Bridgeport?  Think again. The  Dutchmen are one of the most well-rounded teams out there, and may have the best goaltender in the nation, currently playing at the top of his game.

          • Union has a huge downfall and that is that they have not done well against top teams in the nation. They play many low ranked teams, especially in non-league play. They have some great players, but have lost to some big teams like Denver, Colorado College and have not beat Cornell in either match this year.

          • And Union trounced Michigan and beat Merrimack, both on the road, and tied WMU twice, Cornell once, beat Colgate 3 times, and DU and CC were close games, so…I don’t agree.
            “EZAC”—“Every Zajac A Contender”

          • Until an ecac makes the ff Im not a believer. Union has to prove it first in the postseason Has it been since Cornell in 03?

          • Essentially your logic is that if it doesn’t happen often it won’t likely happen in the future.  Tell me, do you work in mortgage backed securities?

          • They also lost to Brown twice this year.  I am not saying that Union is not a good team, because I do think that they are.  I have seen them play several times this year.  They are fun to watch and their goaltender is fun to watch. I was at both games last weekend against RPI and they played shaky.

          • Michigan and a close denver game are solid wins. Cc not so much AND i am a wcha loyalist. i like your comment soley based on the zajac line. I dont respect the ecac that much but i sure wouldnt be too comfortable with union in my region. Good luck in the tourney and against harvard.

    • UT: must apologize for saying to U earlier in the week that Union had NO shot at a number one seed!!  Win tonight and the deed is done.  U R smarter than the average bear!  ;-)

  4. If I’m not mistaken, Merrimack also needs Michigan to lose too, since a Michigan win puts Michigan state into a tie. Using tiebreakers, Merrimack would be out

  5. What happens if Harvard bets Union (Not likely but possible) and Cornell beats Colgate?  Harvard and Union to NCAA tournament?  Harvard in Bridgeport?

    • Harvard would likely be the 15 seed so it should go wherever the #2 is – unless someone has to be moved to avoid intraconference games.

  6. So if you’re Michigan St/NMU, wouldn’t the outcome of the ECAC matches be more or less irrelevant? Regardless who wins, one team is eliminated (Cornell/Harvard eliminates Merrimack, Union eliminates Harvard, Colgate eliminates Cornell)…so really they need to be rooting for Air Force the most since that allows them to root against Cornell/Harvard and get more teams eliminated.

  7. If union gets a #1 seed I bet they lose unless they play Air Force.  Every other team that makes it will beat them.  They are not a terrible team but going through there schedule, I noticed it was EXTREMELY weak.

  8. MSU should also be cheering for Air Force.  An RIT win flips their comparison from MSU to RIT and drops MSU below NMU.  My quick look appears to show MSU out if both RIT and WMU win, and in if both RIT and WMU lose.  If one of those two teams win, MSU is out if both Cornell and Harvard win.

  9. I hope UMD draws either Michigan or Union’s bracket. Green bay would be nice because its close but we owned bridgeport last year and taught those EZAC kids ([email protected] Yale being #1 overall last year)  a thing or two about Iron Range Hockey.

  10. Jayson and others,
    I suppose this is a heads up as much as anything.  Of course you would know that there are many sites out there who have software that do the same as your PWPredictor.  There is a disagreement in NMU’s RPI in one scenario, that to some, leaves just enough room to get Merrimack in.  It is this:  UND, Maine, WMU, AFA, and Union winning tonight.  USCHO would have MSU, NMU, and Merrimack in a tie, and Merrimack out.  One other site I found gave the NMU/Merrimack compare to Merrimack by a very slim margin (in the 5th decimal place), and this Merrimack got in.
    Just wanted to let you know..

  11. There are some absurdly volatile PWR outcomes… I’d got one where if Union wins (against Harvard) they are a #3 overall seed.. if they lose and they drop WAY DOWN to #11… 

    As a CT guy, for personal reasons, overall I’d rather have them in Bridgeport..  If they are a FF team, let’s be honest – they’ll rise to the top in whatever bracket they filter into.

    UT   

  12. A win Sat would make a huge difference for DU – possibly 3rd in the PWR versus 11 or 12 with a loss  (with that, doesn’t it seem like the PWR is a bad system? – why should one loss in the championship game make such a difference) 

  13. How BRUTAL is the HE and CCHA championship attendance!!!!  It is AWFUL!!! Time to put majority of the FROZEN 4’s out west! HEY NCAA- learn a lesson from the FINAL 5 this weekend!!! 

    • Nice logic.  If the league tournament doesn’t sell out, move the Frozen Four.  Has there been a problem with Frozen Four attendance in the East????

      • UNH is a VERY talented team. They just haven’t clicked for more than a couple of games at a time. I think at any point in time they could sweep a weekend series against almost anyone in the country. But yes, going by precedence I don’t see them beating a fundamentally strong Maine team.

        • I keep hearing how talented they are. But I don’t know if I see it. And a lot of the talent evaluators are consistently putting the players of other teams on their prospect lists while maybe 1 or 2 UNH players make it. I’m not trying to be a hater, but over the last 3-5 years its seemed to me that UNH has struggled to recruit the same caliber kids that go to the Boston schools. I don’t know what their problem is exactly (getting recruits, bad luck, ineffective coaching, some combo of all three?) but the teams of the last two seasons don’t have the same talent level that I (and many fans) became accustomed to in the recent past.

    • Good catch. I’ve corrected the text. Since I was going to the Whittemore Center for the game on Friday and Maine tends to play two road games when they’re down this way, I added two and two and got five.

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