What I Believe – Monday Edition

Here’s what I believe after this weekend’s action and by playing around with the PairWise Predictor.

In:

Big 10 – Minnesota

ECAC – Harvard, Union

Hockey East – Lowell, BU

NCHC – Denver, UMD, Western Michigan

WCHA – Winner of Bowling Green/Michigan Tech

That makes nine teams in, leaving seven spots left.

There are 15 teams for those seven spots

Atlantic Hockey – Canisius, Air Force, Army, Robert Morris

Big 10 – Wisconsin, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State

ECAC – Cornell, Quinnipiac

Hockey East – BC, Notre Dame, Providence

NCHC – North Dakota

Teams that need to win its Championship in order to get in (seven):

Atlantic Hockey – Canisius, Army, Robert Morris

Big 10 – Wisconsin, Michigan, Michigan State

ECAC – Quinnipiac

Teams that can still get in at-large (eight):

Atlantic Hockey – Air Force (How? All top seeds win, except that one of Penn State or Ohio State must lose on Thursday and Air Force must win on Friday)

Big 10 – Ohio State, Penn State

ECAC – Cornell

Hockey East – BC, Notre Dame, Providence

NCHC – North Dakota

 

104 COMMENTS

  1. Wouldn’t that be something if every team in the BIG other than Minnesota missed the NCAA tournament? They’ve been barking about how much better than conference is this season as a whole but when push comes to shove, we’re right back to where we started. I’d laugh so hard if Penn St missed out after being ranked #1 in January.

    • There will be two. Minnesota is pretty good at winning regular season trophies but, they probably will not win the BIG 10 tourney.

    • Penn State deserved to be ranked #1 in January and they deserve to be where they sit right now too. Sorry you’re such a B1G hater.

      • Why, because they had a good record against some terrible competition? Although I’m not a big ten fan, I’m not a hater either. I simply stated that the hype surrounding that team for months was only a product of their schedule. I think most people would agree with me on this.

        • Amen to this.

          For quite some time there Penn State was positively reeking of Minnesota-State Mankato of ’14-’15. Number 1 overall seed in the tourney and one and done against the 16 seed while only scoring one goal against them, and, a power play goal at that. PSU’s season was, for awhile, sort of channeling MSM’s season that year.

      • Why is it that everyone that points out how weak of a schedule PSU played, is automatically a B1G hater? Minnesota deserves to be ranked 5th in the PWR. Their OOC schedule included St. Cloud, North Dakota, Minnesota State, Northeastern and Boston College. PSU’s OOC schedule included Mercyhurst, Niagara, Canisius, Alaska Anchorage and Arizona State. I wish you would just grow up, facts are facts, unless you are on of those that believe in your own alternative facts. In addition to playing a “soft” OOC, there is simply no denying that the B1G is the 3rd weakest conference in CH. They are that high because the WCHA is having a down year.

        • THANK YOU. So annoyed by the “hater” conversation. Sorry that your conference isn’t very good! It’s as simple as that.

        • Seems pretty clear you are a B1G hater… you conveniently cherry-picked Penn State’s non-conference schedule, leaving off games against a ranked St. Lawrence team and winning three of four points at Notre Dame (#3 at the time). Penn State is still a young program and are ramping up their schedule.

          Then you call the B1G the “third weakest conference”…. interesting choice of words when there are only 6 conferences. I stand by my point – Penn State deserved it’s turn at #1 and definitely deserved the plummet down the rankings as they struggled in B1G play. Seems pretty clear you are a “hater” to me…

    • I’d laugh as well and that would make it two years in a row, then, too.

      Omaha was #1 in one of the polls on January 1st last season, I believe (right around that time?), and didn’t make the tourney, either. Funnier, still, is that they went unbeaten and untied in non-conference play as well and still somehow managed not to make the tourney.

  2. Wouldn’t that be something if every team in the BIG other than Minnesota missed the NCAA tournament? They’ve been barking about how much better than conference is this season as a whole but when push comes to shove, we’re right back to where we started. I’d laugh so hard if Penn St missed out after being ranked #1 in January.

    • There will be two. Minnesota is pretty good at winning regular season trophies but, they probably will not win the BIG 10 tourney.

    • Penn State deserved to be ranked #1 in January and they deserve to be where they sit right now too. Sorry you’re such a B1G hater.

      • Why, because they had a good record against some terrible competition? Although I’m not a big ten fan, I’m not a hater either. I simply stated that the hype surrounding that team for months was only a product of their schedule. I think most people would agree with me on this.

        • Amen to this.

          For quite some time there Penn State was positively reeking of Minnesota-State Mankato of ’14-’15. Number 1 overall seed in the tourney and one and done against the 16 seed while only scoring one goal against them, and, a power play goal at that. PSU’s season was, for awhile, sort of channeling MSM’s season that year.

      • Why is it that everyone that points out how weak of a schedule PSU played, is automatically a B1G hater? Minnesota deserves to be ranked 5th in the PWR. Their OOC schedule included St. Cloud, North Dakota, Minnesota State, Northeastern and Boston College. PSU’s OOC schedule included Mercyhurst, Niagara, Canisius, Alaska Anchorage and Arizona State. I wish you would just grow up, facts are facts, unless you are on of those that believe in your own alternative facts. In addition to playing a “soft” OOC, there is simply no denying that the B1G is the 3rd weakest conference in CH. They are that high because the WCHA is having a down year.

        • THANK YOU. So annoyed by the “hater” conversation. Sorry that your conference isn’t very good! It’s as simple as that.

        • Seems pretty clear you are a B1G hater… you conveniently cherry-picked Penn State’s non-conference schedule, leaving off games against a ranked St. Lawrence team and winning three of four points at Notre Dame (#3 at the time). Penn State is still a young program and are ramping up their schedule.

          Then you call the B1G the “third weakest conference”…. interesting choice of words when there are only 6 conferences. I stand by my point – Penn State deserved it’s turn at #1 and definitely deserved the plummet down the rankings as they struggled in B1G play. Seems pretty clear you are a “hater” to me…

    • I’d laugh as well and that would make it two years in a row, then, too.

      Omaha was #1 in one of the polls on January 1st last season, I believe (right around that time?), and didn’t make the tourney, either. Funnier, still, is that they went unbeaten and untied in non-conference play as well and still somehow managed not to make the tourney.

  3. Will be a very interesting offseason for the WCHA. Two years in a row with just one team gets us closer to it being the trend. Minnesota State already tried to leave last year and the B1G needs an eighth team. Wouldn’t shock me at all if MSU or MTU bolt soon unless rest of the league steps up and helps to get teams 10-15 games over .500 into the NCAA tourney.

    • .
      yeah. change needs to happen… tired of blaming the B1G and the NACHO for what the WCHA got stuck with (however unfortunate -AND- unfair).

      i bet they will go for two regions opening up the schedule for more non-conference games… and reducing travel.

      well, i hope at least that.

      GO TECH GOLD!
      .

    • Good point, it appears the developing trend is becoming more the reality. But If you’re suggesting Minnesota St goes to the BIG… I’m a little skeptical.
      The BIG requires it’s members to be nationally certified research institutions, which I believe ND (hockey) is? and Johns Hopkins (lacrosse) certainly is. MTU (or ASU?) would probably be the more desirable choice in that regard. That said, there is no doubt that the BIG will bend its rules for it’s own advantage if necessary.

        • I apologize if I might have confused people here… I was speaking of Notre Dame (as ND), which joins the BIG in hockey next season.

          • Forgive, I sometimes forget there’s life beyond Fargo, Grand Furks, Minot, and Bismarc. Plus, I get so excited whenever I see the let ND together.

    • Certainly some of the WCHA wants out, but where are they gonna go? Considering Mankato, which makes perfect sense geographically and has the best resume since re-alignment, can’t even get into the NCHC, then no one else will either. The WCHA just needs to get better, plain and simple.

  4. Will be a very interesting offseason for the WCHA. Two years in a row with just one team gets us closer to it being the trend. Minnesota State already tried to leave last year and the B1G needs an eighth team. Wouldn’t shock me at all if MSU or MTU bolt soon unless rest of the league steps up and helps to get teams 10-15 games over .500 into the NCAA tourney.

    • .
      yeah. change needs to happen… tired of blaming the B1G and the NACHO for what the WCHA got stuck with (however unfortunate -AND- unfair).

      i bet they will go for two regions opening up the schedule for more non-conference games… and reducing travel.

      well, i hope at least that.

      GO TECH GOLD!
      .

    • Good point, it appears the developing trend is becoming more the reality. But If you’re suggesting Minnesota St goes to the BIG… I’m a little skeptical.
      The BIG requires it’s members to be nationally certified research institutions, which I believe ND (hockey) is? and Johns Hopkins (lacrosse) certainly is. MTU (or ASU?) would probably be the more desirable choice in that regard. That said, there is no doubt that the BIG will bend its rules for it’s own advantage if necessary.

        • I apologize if I might have confused people here… I was speaking of Notre Dame (as ND), which joins the BIG in hockey next season.

          • Forgive, I sometimes forget there’s life beyond Fargo, Grand Furks, Minot, and Bismarc. Plus, I get so excited whenever I see the let ND together.

    • Certainly some of the WCHA wants out, but where are they gonna go? Considering Mankato, which makes perfect sense geographically and has the best resume since re-alignment, can’t even get into the NCHC, then no one else will either. The WCHA just needs to get better, plain and simple.

  5. Just wondering what kind of scenario has to happen that UND doesn’t make it? I don’t have time to run that many but even when I picked pretty much all upsets, they still land at 13 and that would be the last at large spot. What needs to happen for them to miss?

    • There isn’t a scenario where they would miss. For the next two games, they’ll always be playing a top 4 team in pairwise. They’re a lock for Fargo.

      • I have them missing in this scenario, basically we want favorites to win so other teams don’t take autobid spots. Also, having Ohio St and Penn St lose in 1st round is big.

        ECAC Semifinal #1: Quinnipiac def. Harvard
        ECAC Semifinal #2: Cornell def. Union
        ECAC Championship: Quinnipiac def. Cornell
        Hockey East Semifinal #1: Notre Dame def. Mass.-Lowell
        Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston College def. Boston University
        Hockey East Championship: Notre Dame def. Boston College
        Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Canisius def. Robert Morris
        Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Air Force def. Army
        Atlantic Hockey Championship: Canisius def. Air Force
        WCHA Championship: Bowling Green def. Michigan Tech
        Big Ten Semifinal #1: Penn State def. Minnesota
        Big Ten Semifinal #2: Wisconsin def. Ohio State
        Big Ten Championship: Wisconsin def. Penn State
        Big Ten Play-in #1: Ohio State def. Michigan State
        Big Ten Play-in #2: Penn State def. Michigan
        NCHC Semifinal #1: Denver def. North Dakota
        NCHC Semifinal #2: Minnesota-Duluth def. Western Michigan
        NCHC Championship: Minnesota-Duluth def. Denver
        NCHC Consolation: Western Michigan def. North Dakota

      • When I was running it, I could only get them to drop as low as 13. I think it has a lot to with how well (or poorly depending on how you look at it) Union and Boston College perform too since UND beat both of those teams this year.

    • Everyone that has them lower than 12 or 13 is smoking a doobie, which we know about in Colorado. The Pairwise Predictor only runs the first game in each leagues playoffs, so anyone that can tell you where UND will stand after two games is just blowing smoke. Worst case after initial game this week is UND in 2-way tie for 12th, with Sioux having better RPI tiebreaker. Right now it is “possible” that even 12th PWR won’t make it, if there are three major, and highly unlikely, “upsets” in ECAC,HEA, and B1G. Those three, plus WCHA and AHA auto-bids will take five slots. If I was a UND fan, I would anticipate seeing them in Fargo.

      PS- I was wrong about Predictor only going for first game. Thanks to MN_Wild for straightening me out. Maybe I should start smoking a doobie.

      • You have to double click on the college hockey news predictor to turn the team you pick to win the tourney green. So, you first click each team you think wins the semifinal and that turns them blue, then you click one of the two blue to turn it green.

        • Got it, thanks. Ran a couple of scenarios and it would still take a lot of unlikely upsets to take UND out. I would not be worried at all if I was a Sioux fan. :-)

          • If you run the Predictor and have either Harvard or Union win ECAC, or BU or UML win HEA, there is no way UND finishes worse than T-11th. I would not be that nervous, it would take highly improbable upsets to keep them out.

          • No — just waiting on the results of some “tests” after getting a rash in certain areas.

          • You can also run it on this site. Run Pairwise Predictor, put in Semi-Final round winners, and hit blue UPDATE BRACKETS button. This will enable you to put in the teams you choose as Champions. This is the one I used.

          • No problem college hockey ranked has them at 90% with losing both and 100% with a win or tie. They are in.

      • Yeah I wasn’t sure what I was looking at as I got it to go through all of the remaining games. Again it is a fairly long shot that UND doesn’t make it but there is still that chance. I hope they get in and I hope they are a 4 seed, so we don’t have to see DU in the region. But if we are the three then I hope it is a good game against DU (if we get by the first round)

  6. Just wondering what kind of scenario has to happen that UND doesn’t make it? I don’t have time to run that many but even when I picked pretty much all upsets, they still land at 13 and that would be the last at large spot. What needs to happen for them to miss?

    • There isn’t a scenario where they would miss. For the next two games, they’ll always be playing a top 4 team in pairwise. They’re a lock for Fargo.

      • I have them missing in this scenario, basically we want favorites to win so other teams don’t take autobid spots. Also, having Ohio St and Penn St lose in 1st round is big.

        ECAC Semifinal #1: Quinnipiac def. Harvard
        ECAC Semifinal #2: Cornell def. Union
        ECAC Championship: Quinnipiac def. Cornell
        Hockey East Semifinal #1: Notre Dame def. Mass.-Lowell
        Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston College def. Boston University
        Hockey East Championship: Notre Dame def. Boston College
        Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Canisius def. Robert Morris
        Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Air Force def. Army
        Atlantic Hockey Championship: Canisius def. Air Force
        WCHA Championship: Bowling Green def. Michigan Tech
        Big Ten Semifinal #1: Penn State def. Minnesota
        Big Ten Semifinal #2: Wisconsin def. Ohio State
        Big Ten Championship: Wisconsin def. Penn State
        Big Ten Play-in #1: Ohio State def. Michigan State
        Big Ten Play-in #2: Penn State def. Michigan
        NCHC Semifinal #1: Denver def. North Dakota
        NCHC Semifinal #2: Minnesota-Duluth def. Western Michigan
        NCHC Championship: Minnesota-Duluth def. Denver
        NCHC Consolation: Western Michigan def. North Dakota

      • When I was running it, I could only get them to drop as low as 13. I think it has a lot to with how well (or poorly depending on how you look at it) Union and Boston College perform too since UND beat both of those teams this year.

    • Everyone that has them lower than 12 or 13 is smoking a doobie, which we know about in Colorado. The Pairwise Predictor only runs the first game in each leagues playoffs, so anyone that can tell you where UND will stand after two games is just blowing smoke. Worst case after initial game this week is UND in 2-way tie for 12th, with Sioux having better RPI tiebreaker. Right now it is “possible” that even 12th PWR won’t make it, if there are three major, and highly unlikely, “upsets” in ECAC,HEA, and B1G. Those three, plus WCHA and AHA auto-bids will take five slots. If I was a UND fan, I would anticipate seeing them in Fargo.

      PS- I was wrong about Predictor only going for first game. Thanks to MN_Wild for straightening me out. Maybe I should start smoking a doobie.

      • You have to double click on the college hockey news predictor to turn the team you pick to win the tourney green. So, you first click each team you think wins the semifinal and that turns them blue, then you click one of the two blue to turn it green.

        • Got it, thanks. Ran a couple of scenarios and it would still take a lot of unlikely upsets to take UND out. I would not be worried at all if I was a Sioux fan. :-)

          • If you run the Predictor and have either Harvard or Union win ECAC, or BU or UML win HEA, there is no way UND finishes worse than T-11th. I would not be that nervous, it would take highly improbable upsets to keep them out.

          • No — just waiting on the results of some “tests” after getting a rash in certain areas.

          • You can also run it on this site. Run Pairwise Predictor, put in Semi-Final round winners, and hit blue UPDATE BRACKETS button. This will enable you to put in the teams you choose as Champions. This is the one I used.

          • No problem college hockey ranked has them at 90% with losing both and 100% with a win or tie. They are in.

      • Yeah I wasn’t sure what I was looking at as I got it to go through all of the remaining games. Again it is a fairly long shot that UND doesn’t make it but there is still that chance. I hope they get in and I hope they are a 4 seed, so we don’t have to see DU in the region. But if we are the three then I hope it is a good game against DU (if we get by the first round)

    • 0% I’m counting on UML winning HE Saturday thus preventing BC from an auto bid. I believe at this point that is the Eagles only way in. That opens the door for PC,BU and (unfortunately) ND. Just my opinion.

      • Thanks for your imput. You may go back a bit as a Friars hockey fan but I bet I got you beat! I saw the original game played in Schneider when PC beat Penn 1-0. I graduated from the Dominican school in 1970 and am a former season ticket holder. Ron Wilson was the best in my mind. Not the greatest skater in the world, but boy could he pass the puck and also pick any corner of the net he wished. Was quite the time when he played on a line with his two brothers, Brad and Randy. When the announcer would occasionally state in recapping a goal, Wilson from Wilson and Wilson….was quite the time!

        • Some of us Cornell fans still celebrate Randy Wilson Day. The day (March 6, 1979) he missed an empty net with less than a minute left in the game and CU came back to tie the game and win in OT.

          • was that the game PC lead by 8-5 up at Cornell and lost??? I didnt remember Randy missed empty net.

        • Great to hear from someone who predates me in Friars history! I grew up off Admiral St and started going to the games with my dad as a kid and saw the Wilsons, Jim Korn, Colin Ahern, Bill Milner from that era. I went to the FF with them in 83 and 85 and was thrilled to be at the Championship game in 2015. I’ve been around so long I’ve seen the sons and nephews of guys from the 80s teams play, Friars win the Stanley Cup and go on to NHL careers both in management and on the ice. Next season will be my 40th as a season ticket holder. Last month they retired Lou and Ron’s numbers, Brad represented his brother at the ceremony. I even have a skating Friar tat!

          • I live in Lexington, KY now and was hoping they would play in Cincinnati but figured they would end up in Providence. Good luck watching them!

      • I like how you think. Just hoping we can end Fake Hockey East’s season this weekend. Step one is Lowell beating them Friday so they finish with an over 9-2-2 record vs. them since they joined Hockey East. Then just sit back and hope all the pairwise mumbo-jumbo works against them.

    • 0% I’m counting on UML winning HE Saturday thus preventing BC from an auto bid. I believe at this point that is the Eagles only way in. That opens the door for PC,BU and (unfortunately) ND. Just my opinion.

      • Thanks for your imput. You may go back a bit as a Friars hockey fan but I bet I got you beat! I saw the original game played in Schneider when PC beat Penn 1-0. I graduated from the Dominican school in 1970 and am a former season ticket holder. Ron Wilson was the best in my mind. Not the greatest skater in the world, but boy could he pass the puck and also pick any corner of the net he wished. Was quite the time when he played on a line with his two brothers, Brad and Randy. When the announcer would occasionally state in recapping a goal, Wilson from Wilson and Wilson….was quite the time!

        • Some of us Cornell fans still celebrate Randy Wilson Day. The day (March 6, 1979) he missed an empty net with less than a minute left in the game and CU came back to tie the game and win in OT.

          • was that the game PC lead by 8-5 up at Cornell and lost??? I didnt remember Randy missed empty net.

        • Great to hear from someone who predates me in Friars history! I grew up off Admiral St and started going to the games with my dad as a kid and saw the Wilsons, Jim Korn, Colin Ahern, Bill Milner from that era. I went to the FF with them in 83 and 85 and was thrilled to be at the Championship game in 2015. I’ve been around so long I’ve seen the sons and nephews of guys from the 80s teams play, Friars win the Stanley Cup and go on to NHL careers both in management and on the ice. Next season will be my 40th as a season ticket holder. Last month they retired Lou and Ron’s numbers, Brad represented his brother at the ceremony. I even have a skating Friar tat!

          • I live in Lexington, KY now and was hoping they would play in Cincinnati but figured they would end up in Providence. Good luck watching them!

      • I like how you think. Just hoping we can end Fake Hockey East’s season this weekend. Step one is Lowell beating them Friday so they finish with an over 9-2-2 record vs. them since they joined Hockey East. Then just sit back and hope all the pairwise mumbo-jumbo works against them.

  7. In Ohio high school basketball, the brackets in many districts are filled by the coaches putting themselves on the bracket in order of seed. So #1 places itself first, and so on.

    It would be interesting if that was done here. Would any top seed voluntarily choose to go to Fargo? Is Denver being done a disservice by trying ot keep them “close” to home?

  8. In Ohio high school basketball, the brackets in many districts are filled by the coaches putting themselves on the bracket in order of seed. So #1 places itself first, and so on.

    It would be interesting if that was done here. Would any top seed voluntarily choose to go to Fargo? Is Denver being done a disservice by trying ot keep them “close” to home?

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here