Final Bracket Projection, 3/4

In the end, all the drama between the BC-UMD selection turned out to be irrelevant, as all the top seeds won their conference tournaments.

As discussed in earlier posts, given the closeness of BC-UMD and Wisconsin-Mercyhurst, I see no reason why the NCAA committee would not swap the two teams, leaving a bracket as follows:

BC at (1) Wisconsin

SLU at UNH

Harvard at Dartmouth

UMD at (2) Mercyhurst

The one source of drama that really remains, is will the committee swap BC and Harvard to avoid the Harvard-Dartmouth intraconference matchup? I have nothing new to say here, but here’s the comparison between the teams.

Boston College vs Harvard

RPI      0.5646  0           0.5861  1

L16    12- 4- 0  1         11- 4- 1  0

TUC     9- 9- 2  0         12- 6- 2  1

H2H              1                   0

COP    12- 7- 2  0         16- 5- 2  1

============================================

PTS              2                   3

As I said in the previous column, Harvard leads by a considerable margin in three of the categories. BC leads by half-a-game in one category, and its head-to-head win was in triple overtime.

So given Harvard’s margin over BC, I do not believe the committee should sacrifice the bracket integrity to avoid an intraconference matchup between Harvard and Dartmouth. I don’t think it’s a huge difference, since both Harvard and BC played in January. So we’ll see what happens at 6 p.m. tonight.

51 COMMENTS

  1. Don’t know what Coach Allain tells them during the first intermission but Yale has been lights out after the first period. Through the first four games they have a GD of 0 in the 1st (7-7), but a GD of +13 (17-4) in the 2nd and 3rd.

  2. Yes. No idea what he says. But it was like a different team came out in the second period. I didn’t see them contesting the puck at all as QU tried to bring it out of their own in end in the first period. But immediately in the second they were bringing pressure at all points on the ice. They also looked a step slow in the first period. After that it was just amazing.

    I wonder if some of the issue was that Yale was still only playing in their second weekend of competition. They will have to be on top of their game next weekend against very solid squads out west.

  3. Agreed. Yale traditionally seems to start slow and then build up steam towards the end of games. But I would not want to see them spot CC a 3 goal lead in the first and have to fight back this weekend.

  4. I know he was getting on my case for that, but it was a 2am write-up. I’m not going to prostrate myself before the jury for confusing “rink” with “arena” this time. Now, if I had been writing this at noon, you’d all get cookie baskets with my deepest apologies…

  5. Brian, really enjoy your comments, and predictions. Iam a long time fan of Colgate, and listen to Raider games on TeamLine every season. Since 1980 I’ve lived in Florida, and I have to say don’t miss the frozen tundra of Central New York at all. As a teenager I have many happy memories of Hamilton as I visited my older sister who lived there, and had a job in the theature Dept at Colgate. Attending a few games at Starr Rink which I remember was a Hockey rink in a large barn. Tell me is it still the same? Any way keep up the good work, and stay warm.

  6. You forgot to mention a few names: Drew Shore, Jason Zucker,and Sam Brittain.
    Guess you just assume that DU will be in the Top 3..

  7. I would guess that I mid-season check-in would be a little more comprehensive than this article provides. Rather disappointing, like most of the WHCA coverage the last several years.

  8. It’s a CONFERENCE mid-season look. It should look at the entire CONFERENCE. That would certainly include a DU team that lost almost of all of its stars and are still an elite team with mostly freshmen and sophomores.

  9. St. Cloud is the under achiever of the year. Goaltending spotty, no one to put the puck away. Really thought the would finish top 4. Watch the Sioux rack up the points in the 2nd half, and the Gophers to be a spoiler for one of the top 3.

  10. Another thing that worried Blais was the 14 players UNO lost from the 2009-10 season. The key is the returnees are another year older.

    The quote above from the article just astounds me. Did every team’s returnees turn a year older or was it just UNO’s? Ha Ha Ha! And remember, that is ”the key”!

  11. Here I’ll do a rundown:
    UND- where they were expected to be. Dell is a surprise, see if it stays that way, easy schedule the rest of the year, if they can stay out of injury and suspension trouble, #1 in the WCHA and my pick from the wcha most likely to make the title game

    UMD- 1st line doing their thing, goal tending holding their own, should stay in the top three in the WCHA and top ten in the nation the rest of the year if they stay healthy.

    DU – surprise here with all the lost talent, young guys stepping up, especially in the net. Gwoz will always put a team out that will compete, no matter the age.

    UNO- opened some eyes early, but seems like they have blue-flamed, will down spiral as they are getting used to the WCHA grind. Blais will get them motivated and may beat some upper echelon teams, but will not finish in the top half of the WCHA because of inconsistent play.

    CC- rough start, some young talent, I think they will turn some heads second half of the year, may see them in the national tournament, my sleeper pick for the tourny.

    UM- can you say inconsistent??? tough to say how the rest of this season will go, especially after their series up at UND, where they have crumbled in years past. Wish I could say Bye Bye Lucia after this year.

    UW- I would say they are a small disappointment, getting embarrassed at home to UND and UMD, but their schedule lightens up the second half, I would say they will creep in the 5 spot, earning a home playoff series for the final five.

    UAA- Extremely pesky team to try and sweep, look for them to finish in the lower half, but wouldn’t surprise me if they upset someone and are in Minneapolis for the Final Five.

    MSU- About normal for the Mavs around this time of year, couple big wins, but still not going to get them out of the first round of the final five.

    BSU- definitely feeling the transition, wont do anything this year, look for them to slowly creep up in the WCHA in future years.

    SCSU – WOW, talk about the underachiever of the decade… not much else to say, goal tending is god awful, and the Roe diving act is no longer working, throw in the towel, there’s always next year.

    MTU- yeah they won a couple NC games early against mediocre at best teams, will finish at the bottom.

  12. Hope these writers are doing volunteer work. They certainly don’t work like they’re being paid! The lack of coverage continues!

  13. I learned a few other things; Bemidji State has a good team this year and unlike last year when they started hot and faded, I think that they will finish in the upper portion of the WCHA. I learned the Gophers power play is hot, but they better not take the second period off again like they did in Saturdays game. The PP saved them Saturday night. I also learned that Michigan and Michigan State are much like last year, with Michigan being inconsistent and Michigan State being all goaltending and little scoring, but there is still time for both of them to turn things around.

  14. I agree that Michigan has to start putting more consistent b2b efforts together, but this weekend @MTU will hardly define their nc schedule with AIC, RPI, BC and MTU with MSU/FSU still to play at the GLI. Wolverines are 2-3 against arguably one of the toughest early season schedules in the country and have 8 more nc games left before conference play takes over in January.

  15. Good heavens. Are Michigan and Wisconsin really that bad? I thought they’d have half-way decent squads. Minnesota will have to go 18-2 in the Big Ten to get a decent RPI. Explain to me again why this Big Ten hockey thing is a good idea.

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