How to feel about the NCAAs: ECAC Hockey by the numbers

Between Jayson Moy’s What I Believe and Jim Dahl’s CollegeHockeyRanked site, we have a pretty good idea about who’s in, who’s out, who can help themselves, and who’s saying a prayer for an NCAA berth.

With regards to ECAC Hockey, here is the latest breakdown as best we can figure:

• Quinnipiac (tied for 10th in the PairWise Rankings) is a near-lock for an at-large bid if it wins Friday; the Bobcats still have a 70 percent chance of making the national tournament with a semifinal loss, according to Dahl’s apparently exhaustive calculations.

• Harvard (15th) – who plays QU in Friday’s opener – will not necessarily be eliminated with a semifinal loss, but literally every other game would have to break in their favor for the Crimson to skate again. Friday is, in effect, a do-or-die game for Harvard.

• Colgate (tied for 16th) and St. Lawrence (tied for 20th) play what is essentially an elimination game Friday night. The odds are miniscule that the Raiders could play on with a loss, and the Saints would be mathematically eliminated in defeat.

• Yale (18th) has about a one-in-25 shot (four percent) at playing again this season, per Dahl’s site.

So in the end, nobody is safe with a Friday loss, though QU has earned by far the biggest cushion. Should the Bobcats win the Whitelaw Cup over St. Lawrence, it is entirely possible that the league places just one solitary team in the NCAA Tournament… and what a shame that would be. Well, for everyone except the Bobcats, I suppose.

Continue to check in with USCHO, the ECAC Blog, and Twitter throughout the week for updates as they may develop.

22 COMMENTS

  1. Best scenarios for Yale seem to be Harvard winning the ECAC, UVM losing in the HEA finals to BU, and only RMU making the NCAA from outside the top 15. This works when St L wins its semi.

  2. Best scenarios for Yale seem to be Harvard winning the ECAC, UVM losing in the HEA finals to BU, and only RMU making the NCAA from outside the top 15. This works when St L wins its semi.

    • Where have you been the past six seasons? They’re 146-66-21 in that stretch with four NCAA tournament appearances, back-to-back Hockey East Tournament Championships (2013, 2014) and one Frozen Four appearance (2013). If they make it to the HE championship game this year, it will be for the fifth year in a row.

      Only six schools in the country have more 20 or more wins in each of the last five seasons besides Lowell (Minnesota, Boston College, Denver, Quinnipiac and North Dakota) while their .670 winning percentage trails only BC and Q during that time. Yeah I’d say they’ve already been a powerhouse for some time.

      • I think you’ve understood my statement wrong. I went to Lowell and I find it annoying that they don’t always get the credit they deserve. I was starting that now maybe they will.

    • Where have you been the past six seasons? They’re 146-66-21 in that stretch with four NCAA tournament appearances, back-to-back Hockey East Tournament Championships (2013, 2014) and one Frozen Four appearance (2013). If they make it to the HE championship game this year, it will be for the fifth year in a row.

      Only six schools in the country have more 20 or more wins in each of the last five seasons besides Lowell (Minnesota, Boston College, Denver, Quinnipiac and North Dakota) while their .670 winning percentage trails only BC and Q during that time. Yeah I’d say they’ve already been a powerhouse for some time.

      • I think you’ve understood my statement wrong. I went to Lowell and I find it annoying that they don’t always get the credit they deserve. I was starting that now maybe they will.

  3. You have to tip your cap at the job Norm Bazin has done @ UML…he’s done a terrific job along with competing with BC/BU for talent. He has his way and the Team is a mirror of him…a Lunch-Pail gang that does it his way and for these years they have been at the top or very near it…and by no accident…a very well Coached Team.

    • He understands that recruiting a kid who isn’t going to give him 3 yrs doesn’t really work for his philosophy. So in that respect, he has a type of kid he looks for, and generally they’re from a different talent pool than BU or BC. By contrast BU and BC’s recruiting strategy is that they open their door and blue chip kids show up on their doorstep. It’s kind of unfair, so It never breaks my heart when kids like Eichel blow out after 1 yr or BC loses 25% of their team for greener pastures. I’ll take the hard working kid from Junior A, that’s going to stay 3 or 4 years over the blue chipper.

  4. You have to tip your cap at the job Norm Bazin has done @ UML…he’s done a terrific job along with competing with BC/BU for talent. He has his way and the Team is a mirror of him…a Lunch-Pail gang that does it his way and for these years they have been at the top or very near it…and by no accident…a very well Coached Team.

    • He understands that recruiting a kid who isn’t going to give him 3 yrs doesn’t really work for his philosophy. So in that respect, he has a type of kid he looks for, and generally they’re from a different talent pool than BU or BC. By contrast BU and BC’s recruiting strategy is that they open their door and blue chip kids show up on their doorstep. It’s kind of unfair, so It never breaks my heart when kids like Eichel blow out after 1 yr or BC loses 25% of their team for greener pastures. I’ll take the hard working kid from Junior A, that’s going to stay 3 or 4 years over the blue chipper.

  5. I find it curious the Catamounts fall from the Top 16 of the Pairwise is mentioned, but BC’s is not. Especially when it is now 19th to Vermont’s 18th.

  6. I find it curious the Catamounts fall from the Top 16 of the Pairwise is mentioned, but BC’s is not. Especially when it is now 19th to Vermont’s 18th.

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