Weekend picks: Jan. 13

I did OK last week, going 19-7-3 (.706), while Nicole fared worse, going 13-13-3 (.500). I now have a huge lead on her in our season picks contest, as I am 226-78-37 (.717), while Nicole is 198-106-37 (.634).

Friday, Jan. 13

Yale at No. 3 Clarkson
Candace: I don’t see Yale beating the Golden Knights. Clarkson 4-1
Nicole: Clarkson overpowers the Elis. Clarkson 5-2

No. 9 Quinnipiac at No. 8 Colgate
Candace: Colgate didn’t look too good last week in St. Cloud. If the Raiders can shut down Quinnipiac offensively, they may win, but I like Quinnipiac here. Quinnipiac 2-1
Nicole: Both teams have stumbled lately, so I’m going with the experience and firepower of the Bobcats. Quinnipiac 3-1

Princeton at Cornell
Candace: Home ice won’t be enough for the Big Red. Princeton 4-2
Nicole: I love what we’ve been seeing from Princeton of late. They win. Princeton 3-2

Union at Dartmouth
Candace: Dartmouth will ride the momentum of beating New Hampshire and being at home. Dartmouth 2-1
Nicole: I’d really like to see Union get their conference win and this is their best shot at it. Keeping the faith for a win. Union 2-1

Rensselaer at Harvard
Candace: The first meeting between the two. Maybe home ice will snap Harvard out of its funk. Harvard 2-1
Nicole: We’ve done nothing but talk about how we’re surprised by Harvard’s record this year and they showed some flashes of brilliance of late. I’ll pick them to win at home here. Harvard 2-1

Brown at No. 5 St. Lawrence
Candace: St. Lawrence gets back on track. St. Lawrence 3-1
Nicole: This should be an easy win for the Saints. St. Lawrence 3-1

Friday-Saturday, Jan. 13-14

RIT at Mercyhurst
Candace: The Lakers should be skating with confidence, while RIT has struggled all year. Mercyhurst 3-1, 3-1
Nicole: Mercyhurst got a huge boost last weekend which should help their confidence. They should sweep easily. Mercyhurst 3-1, 2-0

Lindenwood at No. 7 Robert Morris
Candace: An important series for the Colonials, who can’t afford to get complacent. I think they win. Robert Morris 4-2, 4-1
Nicole: Robert Morris doesn’t have a conference loss yet and I don’t think that’ll start here. They sweep. Robert Morris 3-1, 4-1

Penn State at Syracuse
Candace: Penn State hasn’t won since early November. Syracuse didn’t look great against Cornell, but the Orange are at home. Syracuse 3-1, 3-1
Nicole: I really expected more from Penn State last weekend at Ohio State. I’m tempted to pick a split here, but I think I’ll give Syracuse the edge. Syracuse 2-1, 3-1

Merrimack at No. 6 Boston College (home-and-home)
Candace: While Merrimack has potential, it won’t be enough against the Eagles. Boston College 4-1, 4-1
Nicole: I think BC is pretty much in the driver’s seat in Hockey East. They take both. Boston College 4-2, 4-1

Northeastern at Maine
Candace: Maine has beaten the other two of the Boston triumvirate, so there’s no reason the Black Bears won’t do the same, but I’ll go with the percentages. Northeastern 2-1, 3-2
Nicole: Between the upsets Maine’s already pulled and the games Northeastern has let slip away, I think I have to pick a split here. Northeastern wins game one, Maine wins game two. Northeastern 3-1, Maine 2-1

North Dakota at Minnesota State
Candace: The Mavericks have been playing well of late, and will likely get a split at home, but I’m taking a chance on North Dakota to sweep. North Dakota 2-1, 2-1
Nicole: Minnesota State has nothing but confidence and nothing to lose and they’re at home and North Dakota has some frankly head-scratching losses, so I’m picking a split. Minnesota State 3-1, North Dakota 3-1

Bemidji State at Ohio State
Candace: This is such a coin-flip series I don’t know how to pick it. They split last time out. This is also Bemidji’s first series of the second half. Ohio State 3-2, Bemidji State 2-1
Nicole: The Buckeyes keep showing growth and Kassidy Sauve keeps being amazing in net, so I’ll pick OSU to sweep. Ohio State 4-2, 3-1

No. 2 Minnesota at No. 4 Minnesota-Duluth
Candace: The Bulldogs could have gotten a split the last time these two played, but I pick the Gophers over everyone but Wisconsin right now. Minnesota 3-2, 3-1
Nicole: I’m rather confused by Duluth of late, but they have to know that they can’t avoid many more missteps on the way to the playoffs. This is a big rivalry and a split this weekend would go a long way to erasing the recent losses from memory. Minnesota 4-3, Minnesota-Duluth 2-1

St. Cloud State at No. 1 Wisconsin
Candace: The Badgers frankly look better than everybody in the country. Wisconsin 4-1, 5-1
Nicole: Despite a huge weekend last weekend for the Huskies, I don’t see them toppling the Badgers in Madison. Wisconsin 4-1, 4-0

Saturday, Jan. 14

Brown at No. 3 Clarkson
Candace: The Golden Knights should keep rolling here. Clarkson 4-1
Nicole: I expect the Golden Knights to keep plugging along. They win. Clarkson 3-0

Princeton at No. 8 Colgate
Candace: The Tigers don’t give Colgate a chance to gain back their confidence. I’ll pick the visitors. Princeton 3-2
Nicole: If they want to stay in the national conversation and my earlier prediction of a loss to Quinnipiac holds up, this becomes almost a must-win for the Raiders. I think that urgency gets through to them and they win. Colgate 3-2

No. 9 Quinnipiac at Cornell
Candace: This could be a upset, but Quinnipiac has a stifling defense, so I’ll pick them. Quinnipiac 3-2
Nicole: The Bobcats need to continue to rebound and a sweep of the weekend is pretty necessary for them. They win. Quinnipiac 4-2

RPI at Dartmouth
Candace: A hard one to pick, but I liked what I saw of the Engineers last weekend. Rensselaer 2-1
Nicole: I’ll go with the visitors. Rensselaer 2-1

Union at Harvard
Candace: Harvard will finally get a win. Harvard 2-1
Nicole: Should be a two-win weekend for the Crimson. Harvard 3-1

Yale at No. 5 St. Lawrence
Candace: A weekend sweep is just what the Saints need, and they get it. St. Lawrence 3-1
Nicole: The Saints should be able to hold off Yale. St. Lawrence 4-1

Saturday-Sunday, Jan. 14-15

Vermont at No. 10 Boston University
Candace: I still can’t believe the Terriers lost to Connecticut. Maybe it was a BC hangover. The Catamounts have looked strong though. Boston University 3-2, Vermont 3-2
Nicole: It would be naive to overlook the Catamounts here. I’ll call for the split. Vermont 3-1, Boston University 4-2

Providence at Connecticut (home-and-home_
Candace: The logical thing is to pick the home team to win each. Connecticut 2-1, Providence 2-1
Nicole: This should actually be one of the most closely contested series this weekend. I’ll pick each team at home. Connecticut 2-1, Providence 2-0

Tuesday, Jan. 17

No. 8 Colgate at Cornell
Candace: This could end up being a three-loss weekend for the Raiders, but I think they come through. Colgate 2-1
Nicole: Three games in five days for the Raiders and a lot of pressure to deliver. I’m so tempted to pick Cornell here, but I’ll give Colgate the edge. Colgate 3-2

Dartmouth at Harvard
Candace: Harvard gets a needed win, but it will be tough. Harvard 2-1
Nicole: In the end, they’re still a team full of elite players with an elite coach. They have to start winning, right? Harvard 3-0

45 COMMENTS

    • BC stands between BU and an at large bid. This seems like a good time for the Terriers to step it up for one game. A win against BC should be enough to move in top sixteen.

  1. Jayson fun piece, and I am an ECAC fan, but have to challenge Quinnipiac being number one after the loss to Harvard and the home loss to Cornell, even if they win the series and take the conference. Also granted RPI lost, a little interesting to put Union in.

    • You can challenge it all you want, but it won’t change anything. Quinnipiac will be the #1 overall seed in the NCAAs under just about every scenario imaginable at this point.

  2. I just don’t understand the mentality that Western Michigan must go to Grand Rapids. Notre Dame is not that much farther away, and would be a natural 2-15 matchup with Minnesota. I never like crying for the Irish, but shipping them to the east coast and breaking up bracket integrity just because WMU is 60 miles closer to the tournament site doesn’t make any sense to me.

    • I would guess it is as Baz says. They’re joining hockey east so why not put them in the east? When they joined Notre Dame said fan attendance wouldn’t be a problem due to the alumni out east.

    • Well, first, closer is closer. Even if it is only 60 miles. But I’d also be willing to bet that another rationale for shipping Notre Dame East is attendance… I’d be willing to bet that their fans travel better than Western Michigan’s, and that they have a MUCH better fan base out East.

  3. It will be irrelevant after tonight, one way or the other, but do we actually know whether the .5000 TUC rule is exclusive of rounding? Has there been an example where we know what the Committee does for a team which had an RPI of 0.49995 or more and it made a difference?

  4. Where are the WCHA fans that were whining about UND being with Minnesota??? Wisconsin would love toplay Quinnipiac, Go Lowell!!

  5. WCHA is rich in talent…atop the league stands a team with a pairwise of 12 (they dropped this week after winning)!! I can buy the Gophs being ahead of said team, but so is DU, UND, and MN-State Mankato!! No love for SCSU.

    • Joe, they show team records in the PWR. SCSU’s 14 losses stick out like the proverbial sore thumb. You have to look down to #19 in PWR, to find a team with more losses. The PWR takes the whole season into account, and as odd as it seems, the Huskies can’t afford another bad loss (or 2!) to AA, or they could end the season outside the NCAA field.

    • I guess they should have done a little better in the non-conference part of thier schedule. Just because scsu won some wcha games doesn’t mean they deserve a higher spot.

  6. I just have an issue with SCSU at 12. Problem with “the system” is it can’t see the games. Do you really think any team that wins it’s conference is not a top seed?
    Also, SCSU losing ground because they beat UAA? It’s not like the game was 2-1. It was 6-1.

    • You clearly do not know the system. SCSU’s win had NOTHING to do with it dropping last night in the pairwise. It’s all about the TUC cliff right now; there’s a cluster of teams (there is ALWAYS a cluster of teams) near the 0.5000 RPI mark. Those at or above that line are TUCs. Those below it are not.

      CC lost and dropped out. A UNO loss to Mankato tonight will cause them to drop out as well. Should CC win tonight, they’ll climb back in. The exact same thing happened with Merrimack.

      And arguing that win margin should matter is beyond stupid. By that logic, beating a team by two due to an ENG is somehow “better” than beating the same team by a goal. There’s also the sportsmanship angle; any system rewarding teams for running up the score is an awful system to implement – just look at college football for evidence of this.

    • respect your take on it, but come on guys (you and joe erickson)…it’s the same system EVERY team is measured against. you’re not special. and you’re not measured any differently. you had opportunities to jump in the rankings against certain teams. and you didn’t do it. and lose ground versus other. and you did. (next year, don’t get swept by NMU. (or even UNH for that matter.)) sweeps hurt. bad. that’s just the way it is. just going to have to deal with it. btw…you know who swept Minny and BC this year? nobody.

  7. Because st cloud had some bad losses within the league and more on the non conference. Check it out. Swept by unh, northern mich, and there are more. Take a look. I do want to see scsu do well, but those losses hurt.

    • I agree with the UNH, and NMU tough losses, but we played best when the best were in front of us…i.e. the WHCA! Our head-to-head with MN STATE, UND and DU, says a lot! 7-2-1!!!

      • That may be, but again 9 losses in the division and 14 overall matter for the pairwise. Your probably lucky they caught du, and no dam when they weren’t playing well.

    • The numbers say otherwise. Nobody that is close enough to catch them can pick up the necessary pairwise comparisons. Even if Minnesota, say, overtakes them in RPI, they won’t catch them in both TUC record AND Common Opponents Record.

    • post weekend brackets show Quinnipiac in #1 place still. I’m a little surprised. ECAC doesn’t seem as tough as WCHA.

  8. For those that commented on SCSU, I did some research…SCSU is 8-3-1 versus Gophers, UND, DU, and ‘Kato this year. And they are the #1 seed for Final Five. yet, they are PWR #12. Guess those non-conference games are weighted more than a stellar conference record!

    • No but they count they same. St Cloud had a great season but 4 and 5 non conference will hurt you. I wouldn’t worry about it though as there is no scary good team this year. As many points as the gophers have given up down the stretch I can’t believe they are still # 2.

      • Weakest college hockey season ever. The talent pool isn’t great this year, but watch out for BC next year. Their new freshmen are serious.

    • Don’t get carried away. They’re 7-2-1 against MSU, UND, and DU. They’re a mere 4-4 against Minnesota, UMD, Mi-Tech, and Wisconsin. You’ve skewed reality to make your team look better than it is.

    • Useful research: SCSU went 1-3 against TUCs outside the WCHA. That hurts. They were also swept by NMU which seriously damaged their RPI. Lastly they swept a bad UAH team which did nothing for them (sweeping a bad team won’t boost a team’s RPI much if at all).

  9. It’s quite simple everyone, the “system” is a BAD system. It’s antiquated, it’s awkward, it’s far to simplistic. The system itself is not flawed, that’s impossible it does what it is designed to do, what is flawed is that its the 21st Century and the Selection Committee is STILL utilizing it. So its a “bad” system to be using.

    But it should be pretty obvious why they continue to use this bad system, and the reason is because it is a system that spreads out the wealth the most. Year after year the WCHA is rated much higher in the other rating systems. The Massey ratings have WCHA teams rated #1, #3, #4, #6, #8, #9 & #19.
    So if the Massey System were used, the WCHA would get 3 #1 seeds, and possibly 6 of the Top 8 seeds in the tourney. Well, we all know this would be bad for Hockey as a whole, as we all saw the NCAA Selection Committee tweak how they placed teams in the NCAA tourney after the 2005 disaster. Well, the WCHA could be so good this year we might get 4 in again, unless they purposely go out of their way to try to stack the deck against the WCHA, forcing the best teams to play each other in the 2nd round, and sending the worst of the bunch out east to face the best teams out there.
    But to the SCSU whiners out there, even the Massey Rating system which seems favorable to WCHA teams, has 4 WCHA teams rated ahead of SCSU, with Wisconsin right behind them.

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