Bracketology Extra: Looking at the chances of teams making the NCAA tournament

 (Jim Rosvold)
Greg Powers has his Arizona State squad primed for an NCAA tournament berth (photo: Jim Rosvold).

Let’s take a look at the chances to make the NCAA tournament for all teams.

I don’t have the math to back me up right now, because I haven’t run the scenarios yet, so it’s a quick, estimated look.

Atlantic Hockey

Atlantic Hockey will only get one team into the tournament this year – the tournament champion.

The highest team in the PWR is American International at 33, so it’s pretty clear what happens in Atlantic hockey

Big 10

Ohio State is a lock to make the NCAA tournament.

Notre Dame is clinging on to 15 in the PWR at the moment. A loss most likely takes Notre Dame out of consideration unless some other scenarios bring it around and keep Notre Dame in at-large position with a loss this weekend. A win helps to solidify a position, but it’s still in a precarious position.

Minnesota (tied for 20) and Penn State (19) need to win the tournament in order to get in.

Wisconsin, Michigan and Michigan State have ended their seasons.

ECAC Hockey

Quinnipiac is lock to make the NCAA tournament.

Clarkson and Cornell are certainly on the bubble but wins this weekend to advance to the ECAC Frozen Four will solidify their positions as almost locks to get in. Losses will prove to be the waiting game.

Harvard is firmly on the bubble and need to win this weekend. A loss could knock Harvard from the bubble.

Union (17), with two wins over Cornell this coming weekend could shoot up into at-large position if it happens. If not, Union’s season is finished.

Yale (26), Brown (31) and Dartmouth (35) need to win the tournament to get in.

Princeton, Colgate, Rensselaer and St. Lawrence have concluded their seasons.

Hockey East

Massachusetts is locked in.

Northeastern and Providence will lock in with wins this weekend and are still looking good even with losses.

UMass Lowell (20), Maine (25), BU (27), UNH (31) and BC (41) need to win the tournament to get in.

Connecticut, Vermont and Merrimack have concluded their seasons.


St. Cloud, Minnesota Duluth and Denver seem like locks to get in.

Western Michigan needs to win this weekend or else play the waiting game.

North Dakota (18) needs to win this weekend or else it can’t get in.

Colorado College (24), Miami (37) and Omaha (45) need to win the tournament to get in.


Minnesota State is a lock.

Bowling Green continues to be on the bubble, but needs to win this weekend or else it will not make it.

Lake Superior (22) and Northern Michigan (23) need to win the tournament to get in.

Bemidji State, Michigan Tech, Alaska, Alabama Huntsville, Ferris State and Alaska Anchorage have finished their seasons.


Arizona State is playing the waiting game. But it looks like it will get in.