We are now more than a month into the college hockey season (excluding the Ivies) and part of me feels like the bookmakers are beginning to get a pulse on the college hockey beat.
Trust me, it isn’t easy. And this week, I’ll try to explain why some lines even feel a tiny bit lopsided. But let’s go back to week one, where there were a handful of underdogs that never made sense. I don’t feel like this week’s line measure the same capacity.
Let’s go back a week ago. The only technical upset was Bemidji State (+160) handing St. Cloud State its only loss on the year. The Huskies responded a night later with a win, balancing off the series. But Friday bettors earned something from the Beavers.
It is more difficult to pick a winner this Friday. Is Notre Dame under-valued? If so at +165 line at Minnesota (-205) looks attractive. Can St. Cloud State win on the road at Denver pulling a somewhat-attractive +125? Hard to tell battling a Denver squad that’s won four in a row (-155).
It’s a difficult week to handicap.
All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:
No. 5 UMass (-135) at No. 14 Providence (+105); o/u 5.5
How does one handicap a UMass-Providence series? Well, for one, it always makes sense to grab the road team. The visitors have won more of late in this matchup than the home.
But that’s trend betting. What about just looking at this year? One has to believe UMass comes into this game a little hungry after a road loss in OT to Merrimack. Is that enough to spur this UMass team on while away from Mullins Center? One should hope.
But Providence seems like a strong defensive team, winning a lot of the puck possession battles. While there isn’t a ton of value betting either team, one should consider where the line will be for either team when they face easier opponents.
If you like a team in here, bet for value.
Michigan Tech (-130) at Bowling Green (+100); o/u 5.5
Neither of these teams have performed lights out to this point, but Michigan Tech’s defense and goaltending continues to shine.
If you’re looking for one differentiator this weekend into series, it’s the back end. Bowling Green has allowed 30 goals to Michigan Tech’s 11. A line of -130 might not feel like value, but on the road, grab anything that is close to even, even if you feel like Tech might be such a heavy favorite.
If there is a caution against Bowling Green is that this team always seems to get up for rivalry games, and MTU is considered that. Road motivation is dangerous.
No. 12 Notre Dame (+165) at No. 3 Minnesota (-205); o/u 6
Should Minnesota be a lock this week?
Maybe. But let’s look at some numbers.
Yes, Minnesota has a run-and-gun offense averaging 3.88 goals per game. But Notre Dame can be shutdown (average 2.50 GPG against) and has been of late.
Value is usually what one should look for in making a bet. Love the Gophers as much as you want, but there is no value in laying $205 to make $100. You may never get Notre Dame again this season at +165. Is that a reason to bet? I’m no sure. But if I’m making a bet on this game, I love Notre Dame.
And the under at 6, it may push often, but this should be more about defense than offense.
No. 10 North Dakota (-130) at Omaha (+100); o/u 6.5
Bookmakers have really begun to fade North Dakota.
I can’t imagine a worse time to do that. The Fighting Hawks may be 1-3-1 in their last five, but this team wins games.
I expect Friday’s effort against Omaha to be one of the best this season, making the -130 a slam dunk play. Since this line came out, it does seem like there has been some position movement for North Dakota. Expect that to keep going.
Get North Dakota anywhere south of -150, make that bet.
As for Omaha, sure there could be value, but this team has proved nothing to this point. Consider that before wagering.
No. 4 St. Cloud State (+125) at No. 2 Denver (-155); o/u 6
Denver’s two-game sweep at the hands of Massachusetts definitely give everyone a little pause on the Pioneers. Since that times, two sweeps of Providence and Miami have seemingly set this team back on course.
Where, then, does St. Cloud State fit? The Huskies are 7-1-0 and they lost to Bemidji State on the road last Friday. Is this a valuable underdog? Is Denver the test SCSU needs?
All that is difficult to determine. I love the value of +125 for SCSU, as they may never have that figure tacked with them again this year. But Denver seems pretty solid at home. This is a tough one to handicap, though I will say I love the under on this one. Expect a 3-1, 3-2, 2-1 type game.
