Each week during the season, we look at the big events and big games around Division I men’s college hockey in Tuesday Morning Quarterback.
Ed: I think you and I both agree, Jim, that we’re headed into the best weekend of the college hockey season, the six conference championships. It’s also been an interesting path to get here. So I thought this week we could look at upsets from last weekend’s round of playoffs and possible spoilers for this coming weekend when six automatic bids to the NCAA tournament will be claimed.
Michigan and Minnesota were expected to win, and they took care of business in preparation for their showdown Saturday at Mariucci for the Big Ten title, but everywhere else there were underdogs moving on.
Probably the biggest upset of the past weekend has to be Colorado College’s road sweep of Western Michigan. The Broncos seemed to be an unstoppable force heading into the NCHC’s quarterfinal round, but Kris Mayotte’s Tigers found revenge for four regular-season losses by downing WMU 3-1 and 3-2 in overtime at Lawson Ice Arena. Pat Ferschweiler’s Broncos have a couple of weeks to regain the depth of scoring he said was missing in those two games as they prepare for a nearly-certain NCAA at-large bid, though there are some scenarios that would keep WMU out.
North Dakota’s three-game series win over Omaha was not a huge surprise, but it was a disappointment to Mavericks fans and coach Mike Gabinet, who highlighted how the team had faced and overcome adversity all season. Like CC, the Fighting Hawks need to win the Frozen Faceoff to make it to the NCAA tournament, while Denver and St. Cloud State are locks.
Northern Michigan’s 4-0 win over longtime rival Michigan Tech backstopped by 44 saves by Beni Halasz shook things up in the CCHA. NMU also needs to win its tournament championship against Minnesota State to make it to the NCAAs, but Mike Hastings’ Mavericks aren’t a lock either. MTU is in and has a couple of weeks to prepare for the NCAA regionals.
Before we look at how the remaining teams outside the PairWise bubble can play spoiler and impact the field of 16 to be announced Sunday, what stood out to you in mild-to-major upsets back east?
Jim: There’s no doubt to me that Holy Cross going into Rochester and pulling off the upset of top-seed RIT in Atlantic Hockey was the biggest upset. Bill Riga’s club has now upset the perennial powerhouse of AIC and then knocked off an RIT team that, at times this year, seemed unstoppable.
The Crusaders seems to have found timely scoring and, more importantly, best-in-class goaltending at the right time. I don’t put it past this Holy Cross team to once again go on the road and upset Canisius, itself a bit of an underdog having entered the tournament as the No. 4 seed.
ECAC felt like a bit of chalk with the only “upset” being Colgate sweeping St. Lawrence. It felt like the Saints were doomed after letting slip a three-goal lead on Friday, losing in overtime, before the Raiders closed the series on Saturday. It was all sweeps in the ECAC with Quinnipiac, Harvard and Cornell all making easy work of the quarterfinals.
Hockey East, not surprisingly using its single-elimination format, created the most interesting week. With opening round games on Wednesday and then quarterfinals on Saturday, it was enjoyable to watch a team like Providence win twice in overtime by identical 2-1 scores. Nate Leaman’s team struggled at times after Jan. 1 but are playing the best hockey when it counts.
When all was said and done, I feel like the PairWise feels so much more defined than in past years (part of it is that we have three leagues with their finals already set). But with that said, there are also a lot of teams that can play spoiler. How much concern would you have if you’re sitting somewhere around No. 13 in the PairWise right now?
Ed: The lowest position in the PairWise where I’d feel comfortable is 12th, where an improbable – not impossible – set of circumstances have to happen to knock out Cornell or (at No. 11) Western Michigan.
At No. 13, Minnesota State has to treat this weekend’s championship game in Mankato as a must win. I suppose by the time they’re in the third period against NMU, the Mavericks might know whether they’re already in, but obviously their goal is another Mason Cup.
Merrimack at No. 14 also either needs to win at least the Hockey East semifinal against UMass Lowell or they’ll be sweating it. The Warriors can fall to 15th in the PairWise and that’s precarious at best.
However, I really feel for Alaska and its fans. The Nanooks did everything right down the stretch and won the games they needed to. After their final-weekend sweep of Lindenwood, the Nanooks stood at No. 12 in the PairWise and seemed to be in good territory. But as you and I have noted on a couple of our USCHO podcast episodes, once the season ended for Erik Largen’s squad, not only did they need to root for favorites to win, they also had to sit by while other teams passed them in the rankings.
When pressed on Monday’s USCHO Weekend Review podcast by Derek Schooley, we both said “buy” on Alaska, as they have about a two-thirds chance to make it into the tournament. Losses by Merrimack and Minnesota State could bump Alaska to 13th, but even there, the wrong combination of upsets this weekend could eliminate them.
That whole picture will be clearer after semifinals in Hockey East, ECAC Hockey, and the NCHC Friday night.
We know Atlantic Hockey will take the bottom seed as both Canisius and Holy Cross are way down in the 40s in the Pairwise. But 13-15 is an uncomfortable place to be right now.
Among those who can play spoiler to the teams on the bubble with a championship win this Saturday, who do you see as having the best chance?
Jim: I think given the landscape of Hockey East this season, there’s no doubt in my mind that Providence or UMass Lowell have the chance to play the role of spoiler. The same can be said for Northern Michigan, but it could potentially win the CCHA tournament at the expense of Minnesota State.
When push comes to shove, though, if you ask me, a team that seems red hot and dangerous, it’s North Dakota. The only route to the NCAA tournament for the Fighting Hawks is to win the NCHC championship. And the way that North Dakota played this weekend, I don’t put it past them.
What a conundrum that could cause it North Dakota wins. Being the host in Fargo, North Dakota would be the No. 4 seed. I know you discussed this is a recent TMQ, but it’s becoming even more real that if you want to send Minnesota to its closest regional – Fargo – you’d be giving them the unenviable task of playing the host.
It wouldn’t be the first time it’s happened. Minnesota State was a No. 1 seed in 2019 and sent to Providence to play the Friars, which wasn’t even the host of the Providence regional. The difference in that case was that the Mavericks were the No. 3 overall seed, where Minnesota will be the No. 1 overall seed.
If I were the committee, I’d send the Gophers far away from their home, not as a punishment, but as a reward. Even if you send to Allentown, a second-round matchup with host Penn State doesn’t seem like a fair reward for the Gophers season, does it? Certainly a difficult situation that really needs a full field to finalize, but it’s interesting to speculate.
Ed: It’s certainly a whole lot easier when the teams hosting a regional are not in the tournament. Up to a couple of weeks ago, we’d pretty much written off North Dakota. Fortunately for the NCAA, New Hampshire hosting in Manchester and Yale and Sacred Heart in Bridgeport are not in.
Using USCHO’s PairWise Predictor, a North Dakota win over either Denver or Colorado College means that they would be the 15th overall seed (and in those scenarios, bump Alaska from the tournament). If all of the other top seeds win out, that would mean North Dakota should take on No. 2 Quinnipiac. But I can’t see sending the Bobcats all the way to Fargo, so that would require some moving around. If I’m the committee, I’d really like to keep Quinnipiac in the east in Bridgeport. Do you swap the Atlantic Hockey winner with North Dakota, putting AHA’s representative up against QU? I can’t see Minnesota being happy about that. How I’d like to be a fly on the … Zoom call if and when the committee has to decide that.
It really seems like the best solution would be getting Minnesota to Manchester in this situation. Not great, but better than having to face North Dakota in the first round with Fighting Hawks fans flooding Fargo.
However, if St. Cloud or Denver beat North Dakota, the trouble goes away and then we have some other fun, and that’s the possibility of 2006 history repeating itself: Minnesota vs. Holy Cross (should they get past Canisius) in a building of hostile NoDak fans. I’ll bet a lot of old-time Sioux faithful still have their Holy Cross sweaters.
I know you and Jayson Moy will have another Bracketology column this week, but I can’t help but ask: if Alaska ends up in as the 15th seed, do you send them to Fargo vs. the Gophers and then put Holy Cross or Canisius in Bridgeport to take on Quinnipiac?
Jim: Having studied the NCAA brackets and their construction for a number of years and written the Bracketology column for the last few seasons, swapping the 15th and 16th overall seeds is considered such an extreme move that it requires an extreme situation.
Hosting is always one, obviously, and a must according to NCAA guidelines. But if you’re talking Alaska at 15 and either Holy Cross or Canisius at 16, neither creates anything in my opinion that would warrant not aligning the top overall seed with the lowest overall seed.
Neither Holy Cross nor Canisius has such a massive fan base that I would picture them moving the attendance needle. And, more so, making sure that say Holy Cross and Minnesota would play again in the state of North Dakota, just like 2006, would create storylines that broadcast partner ESPN would love to have in their back pockets.
This is an interesting week so, in addition to our regular bracketology, Jayson and I will be publishing a final bracket prediction about 60-90 minutes after the final game ends on Saturday night.
You started by saying this is the best weekend of the year, so to all college hockey fans, enjoy!
