Desperation is a pretty typical term you’ll hear thrown around by coaches, especially those of teams battling a current losing streak. “We need to come out playing desperate tonight,” seems to be a mantra of coaches who need that “get right” type of game.
But what about a team that’s in the middle of a 10-game unbeaten streak? You wouldn’t expect to hear desperation, but this weekend that might be the case for Arizona State.
The Sun Devils have put together an impressed 16-3-5 record, the fourth best winning percentage in college hockey behind Boston College, Wisconsin and Maine. That trio currently comprise three of the four top team in the PairWise, while Arizona State sits a distant 16th.
There are a number of factors that go into ASU’s current positioning, most notably a massive unbalance of home vs. road games this season (26 home games, 10 road games, two neutral-site games). But when you look at Arizona State’s remaining schedule, there aren’t a lot of opportunities to improve the team’s overall RPI and thus move up in the PairWise.
Except, of course, this weekend. The Sun Devils will host Cornell for a pair of games. Two wins and the Sun Devils’ RPI could improve by more than .01, something that sounds insignificant, but could move them up a spot or two in the PairWise.
Two losses on the other hand could spell the end of any NCAA tournament hopes.
Even if Arizona State sweeps Cornell this weekend, they’ll still need near perfection the rest of the way. The only remaining opponent inside the top half of the PairWise is Alaska, which ASU will play twice at home and twice in Fairbanks.
So taking all this into consideration, should we factor desperation into the equation when approach the ASU/Cornell line? The line currently stands at Cornell (-105) and Arizona State (-125). The over/under is 5.5.
It makes sense that a desperate Arizona State team at home will come out with added intensity. But then we need to also think about Cornell. The Big Red are in an equally precarious position when it comes to NCAA position. They enter the weekend further down the PairWise, tied for 18 with Colorado College. Certainly, they will have more opportunity to improve their RPI than does ASU, but you have to think that Cornell will come out with some intensity as well.
As we moved towards the end of the regular season, though, keep a team’s desperation level in mind when making your wagers.
Other games to watch:
Providence (+150) at Boston College (-195); over/under 5.5
Boston College has not played a single regulation game in 35 days, that of which was a thrilling 5-4 victory at home over Providence. The Eagles lost more than a quarter of its team to the IIHF World Junior Tournament, so that break was wisely schedule by coach Greg Brown.
The point, though, is these two teams are pretty evenly matched which makes Providence’s +150 line a pretty good value. The 5-4 result might be triggering the over in many people’s minds, but bettors may recall that the last matchup was a 2-1 game heading to the third period. Still, 5.5 seems a manageable over/under and a bet we like.
St. Cloud State (+124) at Denver (-160); over/under 6.5
Denver is one of the best home teams in the country. But the Pioneers about to be tested by arguable their toughest opponent to come to Magness Arena this season. St. Cloud State, despite a modest position of 12th in the PairWise, has quietly improved its record to 7-0-1 in NCHC play and sits atop of the league. One could argue that the Huskies have only played teams in the bottom of the league thus far, a point that is true.
What is a bit interesting is the close relationship between these two head coaches. A week ago, the two were together behind the bench of Team USA in Sweden as they won gold. Now they’ll oppose one another knowing pretty much everything about their opponent.
The over/under of 6.5 on this matchup is intriguing. Three of the last five times these teams played, the total has been under 6.5.
Best bet: Providence at Boston College – over 5.5 goals.
