After last week, when just about every game was a pick ’em, the books are finding some games where you’re seeing lines that have some better-than-average value.
We’ll get to that shortly, but first I want to look at two games that lines are yet to have been set and that’s Monday’s Beanpot semifinals in Boston.
There is a chance that DraftKings and other legal sports books won’t touch either game. Realistically, most of the handle (or the amount bet on the game) would come from bettors in Massachusetts and, despite these games being considered a “tournament” they don’t qualify as postseason, thus legal sports books aren’t allowed to publish these lines in Massachusetts.
That said, let’s imagine that the lines will be available somewhere. What types of value would it take to wager on these games?
In the opener between defending champion Northeastern and Harvard, the Huskies should be a significant favorite. Harvard enters this weekend 4-12-3 overall and despite three of those five wins coming in the weeks leading into this weekend, a nine-game losing streak midseason stands out for the Crimson. Northeastern, meanwhile, is playing its best hockey having swept Merrimack and knocked off Boston University in overtime on Tuesday.
Expect a line somewhere around -195 for Northeastern and +135 for Harvard. The over/under should be around 6. So if you find Northeastern for -175 or better, that’s great value. Similarly, if Harvard is +170 or higher, that’s value.
In the nightcap, Boston College and Boston University will square off for the third time in less than two weeks, which makes this game a little easier to handicap.
Coming off of two BC wins, expect the Eagles to be a favorite, but they shouldn’t be laying too much. Both games last weekend were essentially one-game wins for the Eagles. So a line somewhere around -140 balanced by BU likely being even money (+100) makes a lot of sense. Last Friday game featured five goals total and Saturday’s seven goals. So expect the over/under to be exactly six.
What type of bet makes sense here? Anywhere you can find an over/under of 5.5 or less, take the over. And if you find BU for any type of significant plus money (+120 or higher), you’d be getting value especially given the fact it is tough to beat the same team three times in a season.
Here’s a look at some other lines for Friday:
Michigan State (-140) at Notre Dame (+100); over/under 6
We get it bookmakers: Michigan State lost to Minnesota and Michigan recently. And maybe Sparty was a little lucky not to be swept in those series. But the reality is Michigan State found ways to win games in which they trailed. They already swept Notre Dame at home this season, 5-2 and 2-1. So while we’d avoid the over/under, -140 is great value for Michigan State.
Providence at Connecticut; over/under 5
This is the second time in recent weeks where Providence is involved in a game listed with a goal total of 5. The last time we said it was a must bet against Boston College. And it took a 4-goal third by BC for a 5-0 win to get a push on that bet. Still, we love anytime an o/u is 5 as the national average says this game should go over.
Western Michigan at Denver; over/under 7.5
In the “let’s look for the polar opposite” category, the bookmakers are still posting massive goal totals on games featuring Denver. The Pioneers are still a great offense but also scored just two goals in each game against North Dakota last weekend. Throw those games out, we get it. But Western hasn’t exactly been exploding offensively. Likely these totals are based entirely on the last series these two teams played, which featured 21 total goals (7-3, 6-5 OT). Still, the over here seems like a pretty scary bet should these offenses not wake up.
Best bet: Michigan State (-140) over Notre Dame
