It’s already February, which I understand seems strange to everyone (if there’s anything the pandemic has taught us, it’s that time is essentially meaningless).
But it’s true.
It’s February, which means there’s just one month of CCHA regular season left until the playoffs.
And because it’s almost the postseason, it’s about time that we start talking about who looks like postseason contenders (and who looks vulnerable).
Now, I will admit that this idea is not original – I’m taking the basic concept from USCHO’s weekend review podcast of Jan. 17 with Jimmy Connelly, Derek Schooley, and Ed Trefzger. And it’s such a good idea that Chris Lerch did the same thing in his Atlantic Hockey column a few weeks ago.
But, hey, what’s that saying? “Good artists borrow, great artists steal?” When you see an idea as good as “buy, sell and hold,” you might as well take it.
In all seriousness: The CCHA, much like the WCHA before it, has a lot of teams that are very close-together quality-wise. There might be one frontrunner, but like most years the middle of the table is going to be fighting for home ice until the very last weekend. How will it play out?
Here’s what I think (and it’s just one columnist’s opinion, so take it with a slight pinch of salt).
Buying
Minnesota State – Starting with the obvious, the Mavericks (25-5-0) are on top of the league standings and No. 2 in the Pairwise. They’re a virtual lock for the NCAA tournament and at the moment it would be shocking if they weren’t the top seed in the CCHA tournament. However, they haven’t mathematically clinched the MacNaughton Cup yet, and the absence of CCHA leading scorer Nathan Smith and head coach Mike Hastings to the U.S. Olympic team could still be a factor. Additionally, they have to navigate a tough schedule – their last six games are against the teams in second, third and fourth place. Still, until someone actually beats them it’s going to be tough to prevent the Mavericks from winning the inaugural CCHA title (and their fifth straight MacNaughton).
Michigan Tech – A team that’s been a little sneaky. The Huskies (14-8-1) had been trailing Bemidji State in the standings virtually all season but were also in the top ten of the Pairwise virtually all season. They finally passed BSU for second place this past weekend then they swept the Beavers at home with a pair of 5-2 victories. It now looks as if the Huskies, and not the Beavers, will be the lone team who can prevent the Mavericks from winning another MacNaughton. The Huskies currently have 35 points from 16 games and have four games-in-hand (can you update this tonight after the NMU/Tech game happening now?) on both Mankato and Bemidji, meaning they will be able to both make things interesting with the Mavericks and put the Beavers away if they take care of their own business. And if they do that? Circle the weekend of Feb. 25-26, when the Huskies host the Mavericks in the regular-season finale for both teams. It could be the title-decider.
Ferris State – The standings say the Bulldogs (10-18-0) are currently in seventh place. But Ferris is currently playing much better than a seventh-place team. Bob Daniels’ squad has taken points from every series in December and January except one (against Minnesota State, which can be forgiven) and have found themselves in legitimate contention for home ice in the playoffs. That’s not something anybody would have predicted at the start of the season. But Ferris isn’t a team anybody is going to want to play down the stretch.
Selling
Bemidji State – It’s been a weird month for the Beavers (13-15-0). BSU came into January with a decent hold on second place in the conference and on the NCAA tournament bubble. But after starting the month with three straight wins, it’s been rough going. The Beavers have lost five straight and were recently swept on the road by Michigan Tech, who has managed to surpass them in the league table and still has three games-in-hand on them. They’ve also dropped way down to No. 26 in the Pairwise, meaning it’s going to be very hard for them to make it into the NCAA tournament unless they make a run in the CCHA tournament. They’re still looking good for home ice, and if they can continue to get production from the Sillinger brothers they’re always a dangerous offensive team. But at the moment the Beavers look like they’re struggling.
Lake Superior State – Last weekend’s split with Northern Michigan helped the Lakers (12-15-1) snap a four-game losing streak, but those losing streaks have occurred far too often this season in conference play for them to gain any sort of foothold in the standings. Right now, they’re holding on to fifth place with 24 points. Perhaps most worrying is that they’ve struggled to score in the calendar year – aside from a 5-1 win against NMU last week, they have been held to one goal or fewer in each of their games in January.
St. Thomas – I don’t think anyone expected the Tommies (2-24-0) to light the world on fire in their inaugural Division I season, and they haven’t, but they have at least managed to stay competitive with a number of top teams in the conference. For the most part, it’s been a good learning experience. They could well have a few more wins (and points), but as it stands it looks like they’re almost mathematically locked in to the No. 8 seed and a date with either Minnesota State or Michigan Tech in the first round.
Holding
Northern Michigan – The Wildcats (14-10-1) have got to be the most paradoxical team in the CCHA. They’ll go from sweeping the No. 1 team in the country one week to giving up 11 goals to Lake Superior State the next. They boast the league’s best nonconference record (6-1) but are just 8-9-1 in the league. They also have two of the league’s best scorers in Hank Crone and AJ Vanderbeck. They could still finish anywhere from second to seventh and it’s just as easy to see them going on an insane run and winning the conference tournament title as it is seeing them crash out of the first round early and missing out on an NCAA tournament berth because they can’t string together losses. I just can’t figure NMU out, which is why I’m holding.
Bowling Green – The Falcons (13-10-3) are mainly here because of how much they’ve played overtime in January. They went 4-2 this past month, with three of their games going to overtime (one each series). They won twice and lost once. Of their last 10 games going back to December, seven have been one-goal games (and an eighth was basically a one-goal game, a 4-2 win with an empty-netter). They’ve gone 5-5 in those games. So it seems like they’re in a holding pattern. Until then, we’ll hold off on buying or selling.
