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The Playoffs Beckon

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It’s playoff time, which means bubble teams fighting for their tourney lives, and surprises as usual in terms of who might be in and who is definitely out. The CHA automatic-bid debate continues, and how great would it be if Army made the tourney?

I’ll say it first, the Black Knights of the Hudson have made a huge fan out of me the past five years. Technically they are my home team, so I’m in when it comes to Army.

Now a look at some of what is happening, what has happened, and what should.

The best story of the year that got no attention is that Princeton finished second in the ECAC. Put this in perspective. There might not be a school harder to get student-athletes into than Princeton. Guy Gadowsky came to Princeton from Alaska and has rebuilt what he had in the CCHA, a team that can skate, grind, and freewheel. They can defend, score, and have goaltending.

Gadowsky proved that those schools that no one feels can compete with the big boys — who have it somewhat easier in terms of recruiting — actually can if you do your job right. In that respect, he and Brian Riley at Army should be favorites for national coach of the year. (Princeton is technically a home team for me, even though it is New Jersey and to us New Yorkers the best two things to come out of New Jersey are Bruce Springsteen and the Garden State Parkway.)

Can Mike Eaves' Badgers win a road series against St. Cloud State to reach the WCHA Final Five -- and possibly the NCAA tournament?

Can Mike Eaves’ Badgers win a road series against St. Cloud State to reach the WCHA Final Five — and possibly the NCAA tournament?

The WCHA again is the most intriguing conference for so many reasons. Paul Braun, the longtime TV personality of Badgers telecasts called it as early as December when he said, “There is a great chance that the two attendance kings for the league in postseason, Minnesota and Wisconsin, will start on the road.” Got that one right. The league feasts on those two schools playing home series and especially playing in the Final Five in St. Paul.

They both start on the road (Minny at the Purple Bull and Bucky in St. Cloud). This is said from a marketing perspective, but imagine Wisco and Minny not at the Xcel Center and you’ll be using thousands of unused tickets as bookmarks. However, the Gophers, who might have had as turbulent season as any team out there, should be commended for keeping it together.

They discovered they do have a core of players to build with, a goalie of the future in Alex Kangas, and have a solid defensive prospect in Stu Bickel. Lose two-thirds of your top line (Ryan Stoa and Kyle Okposo) and also Mike Carman for a semester and you’re entitled to struggle.

The Badgers don’t have the depth of some of their WCHA rivals but focused on the process and finished as a competitive team that I’m convinced will upset St. Cloud. Ben Street is a kid who could have a huge impact on this series on and off the ice. Shane Connelly has enough moxie to win this series.

North Dakota had a huge climb to get back to its preseason No. 1 status. As usual NoDak had its ups and downs, but the Fighting Sioux are so well-coached and have great depth. They’ll physically pound you into feathers and can score. I don’t think I’m overshooting the runway by saying NoDak is Frozen Four material, and as my preseason prediction to win it, I’m staying right there.

That said, Michigan and New Hampshire have my attention. I don’t think I saw any team this season more than Michigan, pre- and post-Chad Kolarik’s injury. Michigan is good, real good. Billy Sauer has answered many questions yet still has to answer whether he can carry the mail like Jeff Lerg did last year for Michigan State (and, it can be argued, will do again this season).

Mark Mitera is a solid shutdown defenseman who I think needs to play at a higher level than he has at times this season, but when you are the big stud defenseman you’ll have a lot of teams dumping pucks into small corners at Yost and pounding you on the forecheck. Mitera plays with a bullseye on his back to match the one on his front in the form of that big M. He needs to be great and I think he will be.

Kevin Porter and Kolarik could write a book on the roles of senior leadership on a young team. If you think Michigan is as tight a team as it is by accident, you’re delusional. Porter has been everything his coach needed him to be and more. Kolarik has been everything the team, and Porter, needed him to be.

Kolarik is funny, loose, and a dynamic scorer. Porter is more serious but talk to the two of them together and it’s easy to see why Porter has been successful as the captain. Kolarik makes him better because he keeps the captain loose. On the other hand, Porter can tighten the dressing room when needed through Kolarik. It’s perfect leadership.

UNH is the team that gets less press than Princeton, but that is just fine for the Wildcats. Their M.O. has been to be the team lying in the weeds and waiting to pounce. They are the undersized running back in the physical division that still runs for 1,000 yards. They aren’t great at anything but are so good at everything that they have as good a chance as anyone if not better to win the national title.

Actually, they are great in one area, and that is in goal.

Their strength is their leadership and their leaders are in the positions that are perfect for them to mold this team. Their top two forwards are Mike Radja and Matt Fornataro, both seniors. They have done a great job molding James vanRiemsdyk and Danny Dries. Their top two defensemen are Craig Switzer and Brad Flashains, both seniors.

Kevin Regan, who might be having the best season of any goalie in college hockey, is a senior. As Flashains talked about last week on CSTV’s visit to Durham, having the seniors playing every key role (power play, penalty kill, end of periods, big shifts, in goal), helps them as a group lead by example. That philosophy in action has made UNH a team you want very little part of in the NCAA tournament.

UNH could win the whole thing, but you’d better expect Hockey East is coming after the Wildcats this week and next. Boston College will be out for blood after a late-season sweep by UNH in which BC just didn’t look great. All-world superstar Nathan Gerbe was held in check all weekend and I’m guessing he’ll not let that happen again.

Boston University is playing its usual solid late-season hockey, Providence is dangerous, Vermont is the best shutdown team in the conference — and if Joe Fallon gets hot, watch out. UNH learned its lesson last year about preparation for the national tournament and should get to Denver. By the way, Maine was allowed an off season after its decade of success. The Black Bears will be back next season, and you read it here first.

Have we touched the CHA yet? Wayne State is now officially a dead man walking. The Warriors will open up as the No. 4 seed by playing the defending conference champs from Huntsville. Wayne State’s next loss appears to be its last as the program will be suspended after the season. There seems to be speculation that the school will try to resurrect it, but if you needed an upset in the making, this could be it. Alabama-Huntsville pulled off an improbable run last year in Des Moines to send longtime coach Doug Ross out as conference champ, and took Notre Dame to double-overtime in the opening round of the regionals.

A case can be made that Michigan State’s run was greatly aided by Notre Dame’s marathon against Huntsville. The Chargers were down 4-0 to Robert Morris after one period, then became the fifth team in the CHA tourney last season to score four consecutive goals in a game. The CHA tourney is usually wild, and expect the same this season. Each team plays like it wants to prove it is good enough to be in a better conference, and that is what makes it so competitive.

Speaking of Notre Dame, the entire college hockey world would be thrilled if such a high-profile school won the national title. However, many feel that Notre Dame won’t get past Ferris State in the CCHA quarterfinals. That’s more a compliment to the Bulldogs, who have had a great second half.

Bowling Green is also much improved, and gets Miami. While I know deep down Miami is probably too deep and too explosive, BG winding up in Detroit next week isn’t that farfetched. However, that is an intrastate rivalry, and I can’t see Miami head coach Rico Blasi letting the RedHawks lose it at home. The thing about the CCHA is that the underdogs are dangerous. As head coach Rick Comley of MSU has often said, “There are no teams you want to see in that second round.”

It has been a Michigan-MSU-Miami conference the past few years, and now Notre Dame is a powerhouse in the making. Then it’s the other eight but in that eight are two teams that always are dangerous — don’t forget that Northern Michigan swept Michigan State late in the season in Marquette; they’ll meet up at Munn in the next round. I still think Michigan is the team of destiny here, but Nebraska-Omaha and Alaska should be commended on a great three-game series that ended in a triple-OT deciding game.

The predictions to win the conference tourneys are: UNH, Michigan, Denver, Princeton, Bemidji State, and Army. The preseason predictions for the Frozen Four were Michigan State, Miami, UNH, and North Dakota.

Lastly, best of luck to assistant coach Chris Lepper and the Minnesota Owls in the Tier 3 Junior A national tournament held later this month in Boston. However, a hunch says the New Jersey Hitmen of the Eastern Junior Hockey League win the tournament.

Bracketology: March 11, 2008

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It’s time once again to do what we like to call Bracketology — College Hockey Style. It’s our weekly look at how the NCAA tournament would look if the season ended today.

It’s a look into what are the possible thought processes behind selecting and seeding the NCAA tournament teams.

We’re going to skip the pleasantries and rules since most of you readers know them already. So let’s just get to it.

Here is the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR), and the regular season conference champions that are not in the top 16 (through all games of March 10, 2008):

1t Colorado College
1t Michigan
3 New Hampshire
4t North Dakota
4t Miami
6 Denver
7 Clarkson
8t Boston College
8t St. Cloud State
10 Michigan State
11 Minnesota State
12 Minnesota
13 Wisconsin
14t Boston University
14t Minnesota-Duluth
16t Notre Dame
16t Vermont
16t Harvard
— Bemidji State
— Army

Conference Regular-Season Champions:

Atlantic Hockey: Army
CHA: Bemidji State
CCHA: Michigan
ECAC: Clarkson
Hockey East: New Hampshire
WCHA: Colorado College

Step One

From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.

We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add in any regular season conference champions that are not currently in the Top 16. The only teams that are not listed are Bemidji State and Army. Of course this will all change once the AHA and CHA autobids are awarded this weekend.

Let’s look at the ties.

The ties consist of Colorado College and Michigan at 1, North Dakota and Miami at 4, Boston College and St. Cloud State at 8, Boston University and Minnesota-Duluth at 14.

CC wins the individual comparison with Michigan, North Dakota with Miami, BC with St. Cloud and BU with UMD.

Therefore the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:

1 Colorado College
2 Michigan
3 New Hampshire
4 North Dakota
5 Miami
6 Denver
7 Clarkson
8 Boston College
9 St. Cloud State
10 Michigan State
11 Minnesota State
12 Minnesota
13 Wisconsin
14 Boston University
15 Bemidji State
16 Army

Step Two

Now it’s time to assign the seeds.

No. 1 Seeds — Colorado College, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Dakota
No. 2 Seeds — Miami, Denver, Clarkson, Boston College
No. 3 Seeds — St. Cloud State, Michigan State, Minnesota State, Minnesota
No. 4 Seeds — Wisconsin, Boston University, Bemidji State, Army

Step Three

Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals. We seed Colorado College first, since it is hosting a Regional. We then place the other No. 1 seeds based on proximity to the regional sites.

No. 1 Colorado College is placed in the West Regional in Colorado Springs.
No. 2 Michigan is placed in the Midwest Regional in Madison.
No. 3 New Hampshire is placed in the Northeast Regional in Worcester.
No. 4 North Dakota is placed in the East Regional in Albany.

Step Four

Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intraconference matchups if possible.

Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (unless you are a host school, in which case you must be assigned to your home regional).

If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships are played by No. 1 v. No. 8, No. 2 v. No. 7, No. 3 v. No. 6 and No. 4 v. No. 5.

So therefore:

No. 2 Seeds

No. 8 Boston College is placed in No. 1 Colorado College’s Regional, the West Regional.
No. 7 Clarkson is placed in No. 2 Michigan’s Regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 6 Denver is placed in No. 3 New Hampshire’s Regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 5 Miami is placed in No. 4 North Dakota’s Regional, the East Regional.

No. 3 Seeds

Our bracketing system has one Regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16, another with 2, 7, 10, 15, another with 3, 6, 11, 14 and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.

Therefore:

No. 9 St. Cloud State is placed in No. 8 Boston College’s Regional, the West Regional.
No. 10 Michigan State is placed in No. 7 Clarkson’s Regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 11 Minnesota State is placed in No. 6 Denver’s Regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 12 Minnesota is placed in No. 5 Miami’s Regional, the East Regional.

No. 4 Seeds

One more time, taking No. 16 v. No. 1, No. 15 v. No. 2, etc.

Here, Wisconsin is placed first since it is hosting a Regional.

No. 13 Wisconsin is placed in No. 2 Michigan’s Regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 16 Army is sent to No. 1 Colorado College’s Regional, the West Regional
No. 15 Bemidji State is sent to No. 3 New Hampshire’s Regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 14 Boston University is sent to No. 4 North Dakota’s Regional, the East Regional.

The brackets as we have set them up:

West Regional:

Army vs. Colorado College
St. Cloud State vs. Boston College

Midwest Regional:

Wisconsin vs. Michigan
Michigan State vs. Clarkson

East Regional:

Boston University vs. North Dakota
Minnesota vs. Miami

Northeast Regional:

Bemidji State vs. New Hampshire
Minnesota State vs. Denver

Our first concern is avoiding intraconference matchups.

We have one. Minnesota State vs. Denver. So we switch Minnesota State with Michigan State, the only non-WCHA team in the third band.

Our new brackets:

West Regional:

Army vs. Colorado College
St. Cloud State vs. Boston College

Midwest Regional:

Wisconsin vs. Michigan
Minnesota State vs. Clarkson

East Regional:

Boston University vs. North Dakota
Minnesota vs. Miami

Northeast Regional:

Bemidji State vs. New Hampshire
Michigan State vs. Denver

Well, not a bad setup, except for Michigan getting Wisconsin, but Michigan is not the overall number-one seed, so I think we can keep this the way it is.

Let’s look at attendance. Albany is helped by BU being there, so it looks so-so on the attendance front.

So I think this could be the bracket. But, let’s look at it another way.

Remember that the first thing the committee does after it determines which teams have been selected is to place the host institutions in their respective regionals.

So we have to place Colorado College and Wisconsin first before we do anything. (Imagine what would happen here had BU decided to continue to host the regional in Worcester?)

So we do this first and foremost:

No. 1 Colorado College is placed in the West Regional.
No. 13 Wisconsin is placed in the Midwest Regional.

Now we continue to place our other teams starting with the first band.

Follow my logic as I place teams.

Since No. 13 Wisconsin is in the fourth band and is already placed, in order to maintain perfect bracket integrity, I would want the No. 13 team to play the No. 4 team. In this case, it’s North Dakota.

So, let’s start in this order now.

No. 1 Colorado College has already been placed in the West Regional.
We now place No. 4 North Dakota, the lowest team in this band, in the Midwest Regional.
No. 2 Michigan is placed in the next closest regional, the East Regional.
No. 3 New Hampshire is placed in the Northeast Regional.

Let’s continue with our bracket integrity placing as we have always done.

No. 5 Miami is placed in No. 4 North Dakota’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 6 Denver is placed in No. 3 New Hampshire’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 7 Clarkson is placed in No. 2 Michigan’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 8 Boston College is placed in No. 1 Colorado College’s regional, the West Regional.

Let’s continue with the third band.

No. 9 St. Cloud State is placed in No. 8 Boston College’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 10 Michigan State is placed in No. 7 Clarkson’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 11 Minnesota State is placed in No. 6 Denver’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 12 Minnesota is placed in No. 5 Miami’s regional, the Midwest Regional.

Now the fourth band.

No. 13 Wisconsin has already been placed in No. 4 North Dakota’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 14 Boston University is placed in No. 3 New Hampshire’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 15 Bemidji State is placed in No. 2 Michigan’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 16 Army is placed in No. 1 Colorado College’s regional, the West Regional.

So, here is our bracket:

West Regional:
Army vs. Colorado College
St. Cloud State vs. Boston College

Midwest Regional:
Wisconsin vs. North Dakota
Minnesota vs. Miami

East Regional:
Bemidji State vs. Michigan
Michigan State vs. Clarkson

Northeast Regional:
Boston University vs. New Hampshire
Minnesota State vs. Denver

So let’s take care of intraconference matchups.

We have Minnesota State vs. Denver, Boston University vs. New Hampshire and Wisconsin vs. North Dakota.

Let’s take care of Minnesota State vs. Denver first. That’s a simple switch, Minnesota State with Michigan State, the only non-WCHA team in the third band.

We have to switch out BU now. We can’t switch with Wisconsin, so we move to the next closest seed, Bemidji State. So we make this change.

Now Wisconsin vs. North Dakota. We can switch North Dakota with New Hampshire or Michigan. But, remember two things. There are seven WCHA teams in the tournament and we’ve already matched up the lowest number-one seed with the highest number-four seed. So, you know what, I am inclined to leave it this way.

So, here we go with the bracket.

West Regional:
Army vs. Colorado College
St. Cloud State vs. Boston College

Midwest Regional:
Wisconsin vs. North Dakota
Minnesota vs. Miami

East Regional:
Boston University vs. Michigan
Minnesota State vs. Clarkson

Northeast Regional:
Bemidji State vs. New Hampshire
Michigan State vs. Denver

Are there any more changes?

I can make one more for travel and attendance purposes. We switch Bemidji State with Army. Why? Army can now drive instead of fly, and will draw more fans to Worcester than to Colorado Springs. And Bemidji has to fly no matter what, so it doesn’t matter. Remember that this was also done last year when Air Force was kept in Denver and Alabama-Huntsville was sent to Grand Rapids.

So our bracket:

West Regional:
Bemidji State vs. Colorado College
St. Cloud State vs. Boston College

Midwest Regional:
Wisconsin vs. North Dakota
Minnesota vs. Miami

East Regional:
Boston University vs. Michigan
Minnesota State vs. Clarkson

Northeast Regional:
Army vs. New Hampshire
Michigan State vs. Denver

What do I like about this bracket? Attendance is nice and it’s pretty equitable given our rules.

This is my bracket this week.

The All-Around

By Mike Scandura
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Kyle Laughlin is many things to many people.

To Providence College coach Tim Army, Laughlin is a junior co-captain and a valuable leader on a young team (17 Friars are either freshmen or sophomores).

To Hockey East, he seemingly is a permanent fixture on the conference’s All-Academic Team.

To a Providence teenager, he was a tutor who gave tirelessly of himself to help the boy improve his grades.

To the school’s Student Athletic Committee (SAC), he’s an active member who’s involved in the group’s various charitable endeavors as well as an NCAA survey that seeks the opinion of student-athletes on issues that impact their careers.

“What’s most important for me is, this is college sports, so you want someone who is reflective of what a student-athlete should be,” said Army. “And that’s Kyle. He’s come in and performed so well in the classroom and integrating on campus.

“We held a team vote (for captains) but the coaches have input. Kyle was an overwhelming choice with Jon Rheault as a co-captain. When a team speaks like this, the player definitely is a team leader.”

Laughlin certainly leads in the classroom. As a sophomore, he recorded a 3.85 GPA while majoring in philosophy.

Twice he’s been named to the Hockey East All-Academic Team, and last season he was one of seven players with the top GPAs by position also honored by the conference.

In addition, he received Providence’s Academic Award last season plus the Thomas Eccleston Jr. Unsung Hero Award.

While Laughlin wouldn’t have passed up a chance to win the conference championship (Providence finished fifth in Hockey East and earned a quarterfinal matchup at fourth-seeded Boston College for the conference tournament), he gives little doubt about the satisfaction he receives from his off-ice activities.

“In high school you’re 15 or 16 and you’re not interested in this,” he said. “But I matured a little bit before I graduated from (Severn, Md.) high school.

“In hindsight, it opened my eyes. It’s definitely enjoyable doing things like that and seeing other people being able to succeed in areas where they haven’t been successful.”

Two years ago Laughlin volunteered to tutor a middle school student who was “really struggling.”

“He seemed to be a kid with no direction,” said Laughlin, whose father, Craig, played in the NHL for nine years and currently serves as a television analyst for the Washington Capitals. “He had a difficult time being focused but he seemed to be really into hockey. His mom took him to games and he looked up to the hockey players.”

Along with teammate Chris Mannix, Laughlin tutored the boy in subjects that were particularly troublesome.

“His grades went from D-C up to C-B with some As,” said Laughlin. “His mom was very pleased.”

The same could be said of groups that benefit from the work of SAC, a group of student-athletes (two from each Friar team) that meets biweekly and communicates with and advises the department of athletics administrators to discuss and act on various issues that involve serving the community.

“At Christmastime we participate with churches, elementary schools and hospitals and have a baby drive where each team tries to bring in baby items like diapers and food,” said Laughlin. “We donate them to an organization for single mothers.

“The time of year dictates what we’ll do but it goes on throughout the school year.”

In retrospect, a case could be made that what Laughlin means off the ice to Providence College is of similar — if not greater — significance than what he means while wearing Friar black-and-white.

Maine’s Bishop Signs With St. Louis

USCHO Staff Report
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Maine goaltender Ben Bishop has signed a pro contract with the NHL’s St. Louis Blues and will forego his senior season, team president John Davidson announced Tuesday. Bishop will join the AHL’s Peoria Rivermen for the remainder of the season.

The 6-7, 210-pound netminder recorded a 13-18-3 record along with a 2.43 goals against average and a .920 save percentage in 2007-08 for Maine, which is done for the season after missing the Hockey East playoffs.

Ben Bishop left for the pro ranks after three seasons at Maine (photo: Melissa Wade).

Ben Bishop left for the pro ranks after three seasons at Maine (photo: Melissa Wade).

He was named Hockey East Defensive Player of the Week three times this season, while being named Hockey East Goalie of the Month for the month of October.

Bishop, a native of Des Peres, Mo., led the Black Bears to the Frozen Four last season, compiling a 21-9-2 record along with a 2.14 goals against average and a .923 save percentage.

For his three-year career, Bishop registered a 55-34-7 record. He ranks third all-time in school history in games played (99), second in saves (2,399), fifth in wins (55) and is fourth with a 2.29 goals against average.

He was St. Louis’ third-round selection (85th overall) in the 2005 NHL Entry Draft. Bishop spent three years at Chaminade High School in St. Louis before joining the Texas Tornado of the North American Hockey League following his junior year.

It’s the most wonderful time of the year…

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Some people get jazzed up for the holidays. Others its about the start of a season like spring or summer.

For me, there’s only one season that counts: college hockey’s playoff season.

Things got underway this past weekend in formal (CCHA, ECAC, AHA) and informal (WCHA title, Hockey East’s home ice battle) ways. And coming home and reading about triple-overtime games and amazing third-period rallies I must say really gets me going.

What has seemingly been one heck of a battle all year long was magnified on the ice last weekend. All of that should only continue this week as two leagues – AHA and CHA – enter the “Final Five” playoffs and will crown champions, while the other four are poised for quarterfinal action (what does the WCHA call this round any way?)

While there has to be a focus on the prize at hand, in this case a league title, there are SO many schools that have to worry about the national tournament implications if they lose:

Boston College: Just two wins since the Beanpot was enough to squeak them into home ice, but a loss this weekend to Providence could spell the end of the season.

Boston University: It’s been a heck of a run down the stretch for the Terriers, but if they can’t get past UMass-Lowell this weekend, it’s likely curtains.

Vermont: Similar to BU, the Catamounts made a nice rally in the second half, but the day is certainly over if they can’t get past Northeastern.

Northeastern/Providence: These teams both spent quality time this season on the good side of the tournament bubble. That bubble is dead for either with a loss, while a series win still gives no guarantees.

Princeton: Guy Gadowski and crew have put together an impressive season, but the overall weak schedule of the ECAC this season could leave the Tigers on the outside looking in if they don’t advance to the league final four.

Notre Dame: It would be a shame if the Irish miss the tournament, but right now that’s a legitimate reality. Notre Dame has to get past a tough Ferris State team this weekend and then may even need to reach the CCHA title game to earn an at-large bid.

Minnesota-Duluth: Below .500 or not, the Bulldogs are on the wrong side of the bubble and are faced with the task of traveling to Denver this weekend. It’s more than likely a win-or-go-home for Duluth, which could put to sleep the bantering of whether a below .500 team deserves a chance at an NCAA bid (thought to earn the bid, it’s likley Duluth would get back to .500, but that’s semantics, right?)

Minnesota/Minnesota State: This isn’t exactly a must-win for the pair to advance, but losing this series would put either club square on the bubble forcing them to sit with fingers crossed that the conference tournaments don’t provide any bubble breaking upsets. ]

Wisconsin: Sitting at No. 13 in the current PWR, Bucky will look to solidify its ranking at St. Cloud this weekend. For the Saints, they’ll likely play with a desperate mentality, though, as it’s possible they miss the at-large bid should they not advance to the Final Five.

As for the teams that can more than likely sit back and relax: Colorado College, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Miami, Denver and Clarkson all seem like pretty solid locks, no matter what happens this weekend. Remember, though, I’m hardly a computer so don’t take my word for it.

Tuesday Morning Quarterback: March 11

By Jim Connelly and Scott Brown
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Jim: Is there anything quite like playoff season in college hockey? I know that it’s college basketball that gets all the ratings and TV time, but I have to say, Brownie, that I absolutely love the postseason of college hockey. Maybe it’s because I know spring is right around the corner or that I’m aware that I’ll likely be seeing the most emotional hockey of the year. Whatever it is, this time of year is better than Christmas for me. My favorite part, of course, is sudden-death overtimes, when a team’s hopes and dreams lie on the back of a single goal. The bounce of the puck. A referee’s call or non-call. Last weekend, we were treated to plenty of overtime. Eleven of the 32 playoff games went to overtime, two to triple OT. Seriously, is there anything better than playoff OT, particularly in college hockey where most of the games are of the one-and-done variety?

Scott: Jim, apart maybe from winning the lottery, I can’t think of much. It’s especially poignant when the game has the potential to end someone’s season, as happened Sunday when J.P. Platisha put Nebraska-Omaha into the CCHA quarterfinals with his triple-overtime winner. That overcame a 64-save performance by Wylie Rogers and sent Alaska home for the offseason in one of the most striking results of the 2007-08 season. And Quinnipiac’s Friday win over Brown might have been in Game 1 of that ECAC series, but how often do you see a team score five straight goals and then need an OT winner (off the stick of David Marshall)? Yale’s triple-OT win over Rensselaer Friday didn’t exactly lack for suspense, either. Moving on to this weekend’s games, which contests have your eye as we press toward the NCAAs?

Despite a season that far exceeded expectations, Guy Gadowsky's Tigers have work left to do to make the NCAA tournament (photo: Princeton media services).

Despite a season that far exceeded expectations, Guy Gadowsky’s Tigers have work left to do to make the NCAA tournament (photo: Princeton media services).

Jim: Well, this is a weekend with major NCAA implications. There are a lot of bubble teams that have less-than-early quarterfinal opponents. In Hockey East, Boston University will host Massachusetts-Lowell with the Terriers looking to make an incredible rise from the outhouse in late January to the penthouse in late March. Boston College will host Providence in a series that could mean the end for the loser’s NCAA hopes, especially if that’s Providence. Vermont will host Northeastern with the Huskies realizing that they need to win the conference tournament to reach the dance and the Catamounts knowing they’ll likely need to reach the Hockey East finals, if not win the whole thing, to advance. In the WCHA, the key series have to be Wisconsin at St. Cloud, Minnesota Duluth at Denver and Minnesota at Minnesota State. St. Cloud is the host, but may still need to advance to assure an NCAA bid. Minnesota Duluth is currently on the outside looking in but could play its way in by winning this weekend. And both Minnesota and Minnesota State are on the bubble and only the winner is assured of staying on the right side. In the CCHA, the biggest series is in South Bend, Ind., where Notre Dame must advance past Ferris State to keep its NCAA hopes alive. That’s a lot of series to keep an eye on with just two eyes!

Scott: Yep. And while we’re at it, there’s the ECAC, where Princeton has been steadily slipping down the PairWise Rankings due to losses of its own, and then last weekend’s results while the Tigers were on bye. The Tigers, who play Yale this weekend, may need the ECAC tourney title to make it, as does Quinnipiac, in all likelihood. The Bobcats’ quarterfinal with Harvard therefore becomes another elimination series. Of course, I’m always interested in the WCHA results, but the poster child for outrage this season could end up being Notre Dame. The CCHA has had a good season in terms of its nonconference record, and Notre Dame is a high-profile school that — as everyone knows by now — has been elevated by Jeff Jackson since his arrival there. If ND loses its best-of-3 to Ferris State this weekend, the Fighting Irish are done, which won’t sit well with a lot of observers given the team’s 22-win resume. As always, the numbers are the numbers when it comes to the PairWise, but this is the sort of result that looks unfair no matter what the computers spit out.

Jim: I agree. I think that Notre Dame has played well all season and done so with a somewhat competitive schedule (this is a perfect example of the CCHA’s bottom teams bringing the league down). If Notre Dame can’t win the league, I sure hope the end numbers support its cause. Moving aside from the NCAA picture, there’s one team that could be playing its final game ever this weekend in Wayne State. The Warriors face Alabama-Huntsville in the play-in game of the CHA tournament on Thursday night in what will be the school’s final season of Division I play, for now at least — though you wouldn’t know that if you’ve been reading the news. As I blogged about last week, it appears that Wayne State is negotiating with the Detroit Red Wings to build an on-campus rink that would be WSU’s main facility and the Wings practice rink. Obviously, this won’t be ready in time to save the program next year, but it’s still an interesting development. Your thoughts?

Scott: I’m rooting for Wayne State, both in the short and long term. As I’ve said before in this and other forums, losing teams is plain and simple a Bad Thing for college hockey. Not only would Wayne State’s departure from the varsity ranks likely mean the end of the CHA — a noble experiment that has never had the stability or geography to make it work — but who’s going to want to join the party in Division I when existing teams can’t survive? There’s no upside if Wayne State is really gone for good. And another point — relations between the college game and the NHL haven’t been great lately, thanks to the perception that the pro league is raiding college rosters (see: Okposo, Kyle). If the Red Wings step in and help restore a struggling program like Wayne State, that could go a long way toward healing the rift. Changing directions, we talk mostly about men’s Division I in this column, but the playoff situation in men’s D-III has been fascinating. I’m talking, of course, about Adrian College, the first-year team in the lightly-regarded MCHA which went 26-3 but failed to make the NCAA tournament (the MCHA doesn’t get an autobid). No less a celebrity than sportswriter and novelist Mitch Albom took Adrian’s case public on ESPN, to no avail. I’m not enough of an expert on the D-III selection process to speak definitively on the matter, but I am a believer in the mathematical model used by the KRACH system to rank teams, and examining the D-III KRACH, it sure looks to me like Adrian got hosed. Your take?

Jim: I’m all for the upstart programs, and like you, I don’t have a solid grasp of why Adrian didn’t qualify for the tournament. But this all brings me back to 1999, which Quinnipiac was playing its first season in Division I. The Bobcats (then Braves) entered the MAAC tournament with a 26-5-2 record and at the time were high enough in the PairWise to earn an at-large bid. If QU could win the conference tournament and improve to 28-5-2, it seemed that it would be in a position similar to Adrian — a first-year Division I program with a solid record that the traditionalists at the time had no desire to see in the NCAA tournament (the main reason being that Quinnipiac didn’t play a solid enough schedule that year). Quinnipiac was upset that year in the semifinals by Canisius, fell out of the at-large field and nothing more was said. I don’t know how similar Adrian’s situation was, but it does seem a shame that the team with the best record in the country can’t make the NCAAs. Obviously, the MCHA’s reputation in terms of strength isn’t very high, which seemed to be the deciding factor in all of this.

Scott: True enough, and that’s always the trick when you’re weighing strength of schedule, whether it’s hockey or the soon-to-come NCAA basketball selections or any other sport where decisions have to be made that don’t come straight from the standings. Someone’s always going to be left out, someone’s always going to feel disrespected, and then it’s the pundits’ turn. While we’ve got a minute here, props to the women’s qualifiers for the NCAA tournament in both D-I and D-III, especially two-time defending national champion Wisconsin, which opens its attempt to earn three straight titles against none other than the winner of the previous two NCAA championships, conference rival Minnesota. Until next week …

Last Knight Standing

By Nicholas Jon Wood
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In the final USCHO.com men’s Division III poll, St. Norbert found itself in a familiar spot.

On top for nearly the entire second half of the season, the Green Knights lost two first place votes — two understandably to Adrian, the other, much more curious, went to Elmira — but remained a resounding choice as voters’ top ranked team.

The idle Plattsburgh Cardinals remained second while third ranked Elmira fell one spot (despite adding a first place tally) to fourth after losing a 1-0 heartbreaker to then-No. 4 Manhattanville in the ECAC West championship game.

The Valiants, meanwhile, have won three consecutive hard-fought contests as they get set to face-off against fifth ranked Norwich in an NCAA quarterfinal tilt.

Since a 4-0 whitewashing at the hands of Colby, the Cadets have been on fire, besting Bowdoin 6-4 and Skidmore 8-0 in the preliminary rounds of the ECAC East conference tournament.

Then in the semis, they continued their remarkable run by knocking off UMass-Boston, 5-2, and walloping Salem State, 8-2, to take home the title. Next up? No. 3 Manhattanville on Saturday evening.

St. Thomas, too, has been extremely impressive as of late. Also winners of three straight, the Tommies, rebounding from a 4-1 defeat at St. Olaf, posted consecutive wins over the Oles (7-3), then convincingly knocked off Bethel (7-1) and then-No. 12 Hamline to take home to MIAC crown.

Ninth ranked UW-Stout will be their next opponent. Face-off is scheduled at their home rink in St. Paul at 7 p.m. CDT Wednesday night.

Despite not playing this past week, Hobart moved up two spots to seventh.

Defending national champion Oswego’s season is over. After falling in the SUNYAC championship game to Plattsburgh (and one spot to eighth in the poll), the NCAA committee failed to offer them an at-large bid. For the first time since 2003-04, D-III will have no repeat champion.

The University of Wisconsin-Stout is moving in the opposite direction.

The pollsters rewarded their tenacity and guile in taking top ranked St. Norbert — unbeaten now in 26 straight games — to overtime in the NCHA championship game. Though eventually falling 4-3, the Blue Devils ascended two spots to ninth.

Conversely, Middlebury fell two rungs on the D-III ladder after heartbreakingly dropping its title tilt to big underdog Trinity, 3-2, in double overtime.

And then we have Adrian. Though their 20 game winning streak will be intact when they begin their second season at the Division III level, it will not be because they took home the national title.

The Bulldogs, falling again in the poll, now at No. 11, were not chosen by the NCAA committee. Despite winning both the regular season and postseason MCHA tournaments, posting a 26-3-0 mark, and not having tasted defeat since Nov. 30, 2007, they won’t get a chance to show how well they match up to D-III’s most storied programs.

While UW-River Falls, their season also now complete, remained at No. 12, spots 13 and 14 were taken by teams who were rewarded for strong showings in their conference tournaments.

Trinity upset previous No. 14 Colby, 2-1, in the NESCAC semis before ending Middlebury’s season in shocking fashion with the thrilling overtime victory.

Similar good fortune befell the University of Massachusetts-Dartmouth who defeated Nichols, 5-3, to capture the ECAC Northeast crown. The Corsairs, now ranked No. 14 in the country, host the Bantams for the first round of the NCAA tournament on Wednesday.

Tied for the No. 12 position last week, Hamline’s loss to St. Thomas dropped them to No. 15.

Colby and New England College, semifinal losers both, dropped out of the last poll of the season.

Michigan Reclaims Top Spot In USCHO.com/CSTV Poll

USCHO Staff Report
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Amidst a splintering of the votes, Michigan returned to the No. 1 position in Monday’s USCHO.com/CSTV Division I men’s poll. The Wolverines, who were idle over the weekend while awaiting their quarterfinal opponent in the CCHA playoffs, received 19 first-place votes.

That was one fewer than second-ranked North Dakota, which tied St. Cloud State twice last weekend to extend its unbeaten streak to 17, but Michigan earned a total of 964 points to UND’s 936 to outdistance the Fighting Sioux for first in the rankings.

Colorado College, which swept intrastate rival Denver, moved up two places to No. 3 and grabbed nine first-place nods, followed by Miami. The RedHawks, also idle last weekend, held their ground in fourth place and picked up the remaining two first-place votes, with New Hampshire slipping two notches to No. 5 after splitting with Vermont.

Another CCHA bye team, Michigan State, was sixth once more this week, with Clarkson — also idle with a bye through the first round of the ECAC tournament — edged up to No. 7.

Denver fell one place to eighth, while St. Cloud moved up two spots to No. 9. Boston College, which split with Northeastern, was again No. 10 in a tie with Minnesota State, which split a pair with Michigan Tech.

Notre Dame came in 12th this week as the fourth CCHA squad on bye, and Wisconsin, which was also idle after wrapping up its WCHA regular season the weekend before, stayed at No. 13. Boston University moved up two places to No. 14 after a sweep of Providence, and Minnesota was 15th in the latest rankings; the Golden Gophers split with Minnesota Duluth Friday and Saturday.

Princeton, also with the weekend off in the ECAC, was No. 16, followed by Harvard. The Crimson likewise enjoyed a bye weekend as a top-four seed in the ECAC. Minnesota Duluth was No. 18, Vermont entered the poll in 19th, and Providence completed the top 20.

Dropping out since last week was Niagara.

Mitch Albom Pushes Adrian D-III Bid On ESPN

USCHO Staff Report
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Despite a 26-3 record and 20 straight wins, the Adrian Bulldogs may be on the outside looking in — as USCHO correspondents Matthew Webb and Josh Carey outlined this week.

But the Bulldogs do have a prominent advocate in Detroit Free Press and ESPN commentator Mitch Albom. Albom used his closing remarks on ESPN’s “The Sports Reporters” on Sunday, March 9, to promote the unprecedented success of Adrian this season.

The selection for at-large NCAA D-III bids and the seeding for this year’s tournament will be made tonight. The process has come under fire by USCHO correspondents for its lack of transparency.

ESPN Video

Reaction Time

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OK. The bids have gone out. Initial reactions:

1. Stout is a good choice. The Blue Devils got hosed last year, but this is more than a make-up call.

2. I hope the MCHA gets an auto-bid next year, so Adrian will have a real shot. Their strength of schedule killed them, and it won’t be much better next season, which isn’t Ron Fogarty and the Bulldog’s fault. He’s trying to get games, but is having a tough time due to the NCHA/MIAC scheduling arrangements. I think Adrian’s non-conference games next year are again Potsdam and Neumann as well as St. John’s. Fogarty is trying to put a tournament together, but it’s probably two years away from happening.

3. I’m wondering about UMass-Dartmouth hosting Trinity. Are the Corsairs the sixth or seventh seed in the East? I think they should be seventh, but they are hosting the play-in. Did Trinity not put in a bid? Remember that UMD got hosed last year and had to go to Middlebury instead of hosting, so this is payback in a way.

More to come.

Analysis of the D-I women’s selections

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The National Collegiate Women’s Ice Hockey committee made two controversial decisions on Sunday. One involved selecting Dartmouth over Clarkson as the last team in the tournament. The other was to abandon the practice of avoiding intraconference play in the NCAA quarterfinal round in order to save money on travel costs. I will discuss each below.

Dartmouth over Clarkson

This was the toughest decision an NCAA committee has ever had to make involving the last team into the field. Recall the NCAA criteria:

RPI (a combination of win pct. and strength of schedule), record against teams with an RPI > .500 (teams under consideration), record against common opponents, and head-to-head play.

Here is how the team’s stacked up in the PWR calculations of these criteria:

RPI: Clarkson .5600, Dartmouth .5594

TUC: Clarkson 5-7-2, Dartmouth 3-7-2

H2H: Clarkson 0-1-1, Dartmouth 1-0-1

COP: Clarkson 18-7-3, Dartmouth 16-7-3

Clearly the committee felt that Dartmouth’s clear head-to-head advantage was decisive, while Clarkson’s three advantages were not large enough for the committee to respect them.

Some fans surely feel any form of discretion in the hands of the committee is a negative — comments like “opening up a can of worms” or “returning us to the era of smoke-filled rooms” come to mind.

I would describe the women’s hockey selections today as “subjective interpretations of objective criteria.” Unlike say, men’s college basketball, the criteria in women’s hockey are very well-defined in the tournament handbook.

That said, there is nothing in the handbook saying that the criteria should be balanced in the manner used by the USCHO Pairwise Rankings — that is, awarding a point for a head-to-head win and a point for any other criterion won, and using RPI as a tiebreaker.

Weighting the criteria is not purely objective, but the committee does not deserve to be discounted as purely subjective either. Having looked at the pairings, it is reasonable to believe that the committee made its choices based on the criteria in the handbook, and thus it did the job it was asked to do.

While this selection is surely disappointing for Clarkson, I see little reason to believe that the committee has sacrificed the integrity of the selection process. Nothing from this selection leads me to believe that teams should be any less confident that they will advance to NCAAs if they do enough to differentiate themselves from their competitors, and that’s what matters most. The fact that there is even an argument to be had between Clarkson and Dartmouth shows that Clarkson could have done plenty more to differentiate itself.

Intraconference Matchups

Many fans will be stunned by the committee’s decision to have two intraconference matchups. When you look at the history of the NCAA in championships that are not profitable, the 2005-07 tournament is what’s really abnormal, and not the current selections. In that context, fans should be grateful for the previous three years, not bitter about the current setup. That the NCAA is cutting costs in the current economic environment should come as no surprise.

Fans should recognize the NCAA governance to be followed by the committee. All that’s written in stone is that the teams ranked No. 1 through No. 4 do not play each other. Beyond that, this is what the handbook says:

Pairings in the quarterfinal round shall be based primarily on the teams’ geographical proximity to one another, regardless of their region, in order to avoid air travel in quarterfinal round games whenever possible. Teams’ relative strength, according to the committee’s selection criteria, shall be considered when establishing pairings if such pairings do not result in air travel that otherwise could be avoided. The NCAA Division I Championships/Competition Cabinet shall have the authority to modify its working principles related to the championship site assignment on a case-by-case basis.

There is nothing in the handbook about avoiding intraconference matchups, but the committee had established the precedent from 2005-07. Thus, I have always written that brackets should be judged in terms of how they balance bracket integrity (i.e. how they preserve the PWR seedings), travels costs, and avoiding intraconference matchups. How the committee has balanced these three objectives has varied greatly from year to year, and I have never been able to predict this balance right.

Clearly the current bracket is the worst yet in terms of avoiding intraconference matchups. It is the best yet, however, in terms of minimizing travel costs. Only one flight, Mercyhurst to UMD, will be necessary for the quarterfinal round.

The reduction of interconference matchups is disappointing. There are too few interconference matchups in women’s hockey to begin with. If any one conference has three of the four best team in the country, the current system makes it unlikely that all three teams will advance to the Frozen Four. National tournaments that become retreads of conference tournaments are a concern.

Another benefit for the NCAA in this decision involves quarterfinal attendance. Wisconsin and Dartmouth have the largest women’s hockey fan bases in their respective regions. The tournament’s bottom line certainly benefits from placing their teams in locations where fans can easily travel to see them play.

Some long-time fans may be disappointed with the lack of novelty of the matchups, but if the respective fan bases can turn out in force and create a better atmosphere for the quarterfinal events, this may be a silver lining.

Nothing Would Surprise Me

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As we all wait for the results of the NCAA selection committee conference call…here’s what I think.

In:

East:

1. Plattsburgh

2. Norwich

3. Elmira

4. Manhattanville

5. Hobart

6. Trinity

7. Mass-Dartmouth

West:

1. St. Norbert

2. St. Thomas

And then you have five teams left for one spot: Oswego, Middlebury, UW-Stout, UW-River Falls and Adrian. The last team in is a tossup. I’m going with either Stout or Middlebury, based on which regional committee can make the best case, and which teams they include in their rankings. The bottom 3-4 teams in each regional ranking won’t make the tournament, but they will determine the fate of the teams that do.

We’ll know (hopefully) very soon.

Men’s NCAA D-III Bids Announced

USCHO Staff Report
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There will be a new NCAA champion in men’s D-III hockey this season.

Defending champion Oswego and perennial winner and last year’s runner-up Middlebury each lost championship games in their conferences and each failed to receive an at-large bid.

The NCAA Division III Men’s Ice Hockey Committee announced tonight the field of ten teams for the 2008 Division III Men’s Ice Hockey Championship.

Six conferences have been awarded automatic qualification. The remaining four teams were selected at-large by the committee.

The championship playoff format involves two first-round games and four quarterfinal games that are played on the campuses of the participating institutions. All games in the championship are single elimination. The four quarterfinal winners advance to Lake Placid, New York at Herb Brooks Arena at the Olympic Center for the semifinals and championship game, which will be conducted March 22-23.

Conferences receiving automatic qualifications are:

ECAC East — Norwich (22-6-0)
ECAC Northeast — Mass.-Dartmouth (18-8-1)
MIAC — St. Thomas (19-6-2)
NESCAC — Trinity (16-10-2)
NCHA — St. Norbert (24-1-4)
SUNYAC — Plattsburgh (23-4-0)

Elmira receives the Pool B at-large bid, while Hobart, Manhattanville, and Wisconsin-Stout enter the field as the the three Pool C at-large selections. This is the second season in the past three that the ECAC West has received three bids to the tournament. Hobart and Elmira each lost semifinal games in 2006.

Wis.-Stout travels to St. Thomas and Trinity visits Mass.-Dartmouth in Wednesday’s first round. The winner of the western contest will take on St. Norbert on Saturday, while the eastern winner will travel to Elmira.

The other second-round matchups are Hobart at Plattsburgh and Manhattanville at Norwich.

Despite a 26-3 record in its inaugural season, MCHA champion Adrian did not receive a bid. No MCHA team has made it to the NCAA D-III men’s hockey tournament.

The championship game will be televised live on CSTV Sunday, March 23 at 4 p.m. Eastern.

National Collegiate Women’s Selections

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The NCAA tournament pairings are in, and it’s a surprise.

Dartmouth at No. 1 Harvard

Wisconsin at No. 4 Minnesota

St. Lawrence at No. 3 New Hampshire

Mercyhurst at No. 2 Minnesota-Duluth

All games will be Saturday.

This is a departure from past precedent, as the committee had previously showed a preference in avoiding intraconference matchups. Note that this pairing only requires one flight.

Previewing the D-I women’s selections

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This post begins USCHO’s blogging for the women’s National Collegiate Tournament.

Be sure also to check the women’s page for recaps of both the ECAC and WCHA tournament tonight. In the coming weeks, USCHO will also have coverage from at least two of the NCAA quarterfinal sites and the NCAA Women’s Frozen Four in Duluth.

The NCAA selections are coming at 6 p.m. tonight. Here is a quick run down of the field.

Autobids: UMD (WCHA), UNH (Hockey East), Harvard (ECAC)

Sure at-large bids: Minnesota (WCHA), St. Lawrence (ECAC), Wisconsin (WCHA), Mercyhurst (CHA)

On the bubble: Clarkson (ECAC), Dartmouth (ECAC)

Note that CHA champion Mercyhurst does not receive an autobid.

One source of drama is the Clarkson vs. Dartmouth NCAA selection. As the USCHO Pairwise Rankings suggest, Clarkson has the edge in the bulk of the NCAA selection criteria, but the margins are razor-thin. Dartmouth coach Mark Hudak suggested yesterday that perhaps his team has a case because of its clear advantage in head-to-head play (a win and a tie over Clarkson) while the other categories are all so close. It’s a fair criticism of the system, but I don’t forsee the committee overriding Clarkson’s advantage in three of the four criteria, however small those advantages may be. I’ll assume Clarkson gets the last bid for the rest of the column.

As for forming the brackets, here is how the field breaks down.

If intraconference matchups were not a concern, the bracket with “perfect integrity” is:

Clarkson at No. 1 Harvard

St. Lawrence at No. 4 Minnesota

Wisconsin at No. 3 New Hampshire

Mercyhurst at No. 2 Minnesota-Duluth

The committee will certainly swap unseeded teams to avoid the intraconference matchup. But the question is, will the committee swap Clarkson with Mercyhurst or Clarkson with Wisconsin? It’s a question of whether the committee values bracket integrity more than travel costs. The Clarkson-Mercyhurst swap is superior in terms of bracket integrity, but the Clarkson-Wisconsin swap would create a UNH-Clarkson matchup that would not require a flight.

What precedent is there for what the committee will decide? The committee faced a similar tradeoff in 2007, and favored creating a BC-Dartmouth local matchup despite having to pair No. 6 Harvard at No. 1 Wisconsin. In 2005, the committee did not have to swap to avoid intraconference matchups and preserved perfect bracket integrity, despite not having any local matchups. So what the committee will do here is unclear.

So the bracket that is best for travel costs while avoiding intraconference matchups:

Wisconsin at No. 1 Harvard

St. Lawrence at No. 4 Minnesota

Clarkson at No. 3 New Hampshire

Mercyhurst at No. 2 Minnesota-Duluth

And the bracket that is best for integrity while avoiding intraconference matchups:

Mercyhurst at No. 1 Harvard

St. Lawrence at No. 4 Minnesota

Wisconsin at No. 3 New Hampshire

Clarkson at No. 2 Minnesota-Duluth

We’ll know the answer at 6 p.m.

Feeling Black and Blue

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Traditional rivals in women’s college hockey are hard to come by, but the enmity between Providence College and New Hampshire goes back as far as any of them.

It predates the six-year existence of the Women’s Hockey East Association. And stretching, as it does, all the way back to 1977, it predates the births of any of those who played in its most recent — and one of its most bruising — chapters, Sunday’s WHEA championship game, a 1-0 victory by New Hampshire.

“There’s definitely a huge rivalry,” said Providence College senior Sarah Feldman. “I think they’re pretty much everyone’s rival. Everyone considers them their rival because they’re such a good team. You can tell by the score, 1-0, that it was a hard fought game.”

To recount all those Friar/Wildcat clashes, 119 of them now (UNH boast a 68-40-11 advantage) is to glimpse the Alpha and Omega of women’s hockey.

Olympians have faced off against each other on campus, then been joined together as Olympians in Nagano, Salt Lake City, and Torino.

The longest college hockey game ever (mens or womens) was staged between the two schools, in the 1996 ECAC final (UNH 3-2 in five overtimes).

So these games have always meant something.

“It’s the oldest rivalry in women’s ice hockey,” said PC coach Bob Deraney. “There have been some tremendous battles over the years. It’s a privilege to be part of the UNH/Providence rivalry. You just saw another classic today. No one’s going to back down. We’ll go to the center of the ring and duke it out. And in the end, when the dust settles, hey, we’ve won our share, they’ve won their share.”

The recent past is anything but dull either.

Two two schools own all six WHEA tournament titles, which with UNH’s latest win, now stands squared at three apiece.

It’s safe to say then, that this generation’s Kathy Bryants still bleed UNH blue, while today’s Cammi Granatos sport Friar black. And never (except in the case of PC alum and former Wildcat coach Karen Kay) do the twain intertwine.

“Oh, for sure,” said UNH junior Sam Faber. “[Both] teams gives it their all and try to win. And there is pride [shared] between both schools.”

Pride, of course, is one thing. Mutual esteem is yet another.New Hampshire coach Brian McCloskey said that there is still an abundance of both.

“I think the Providence/UNH is still very much alive,” he said. “There’s a healthy respect for each other’s programs. I just know it brings out the best in both teams. With UNH and Providence, [even] if your program’s not on top, you’re still going to push each other to the max. They still bring out the best in each other. And that hasn‘t changed a bit. Whether we‘re both NCAA caliber teams in that given year or not. It doesn‘t matter.”

New Hampshire, currently ranked No. 2 in the Nation, would have had a perfect run through its Hockey East schedule, except for the 1-1 stalemate it pulled out against the Friars.

And like the first playoff meeting between the two back in 1984, this, and 10 other tilts like this one, had a championship on the line.

“We’re told,” said departing Providence senior Danielle Tangredi, “from the minute we step on campus in September that it’s UNH/Providence and it’s a tradition for us to make playoffs. We always meet up with one another. It always comes down to that, it seems, and they’re always close games. We weren’t surprised to meet up with them, and I’m sure they weren’t surprised to see us.”

No one was.

This Week in the NCHA and MCHA

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And then there were two. Adrian claimed the MCHA playoff championship, and the Harris Cup, for the first time ever last weekend with two hard-fought wins over MSOE and Finlandia, which leaves St. Norbert and Stout as the only teams with games remaining as the Green Knights defeated St. Scholastica 1-0 and Stout dropped Eau Claire 3-2 in overtime in the NCHA Peters Cup semifinals.

The two will meet at 7 p.m. Saturday at the Cornerstone Community Center in Green Bay to decide who earns the NCHA’s Peters Cup — and an automatic birth in the NCAA tournament.

As NCAA tournament time is drawing ever nearer, we must once again check in on the national scene and this week’s West Region NCAA Poll. It is:

1. St. Norbert
2. St. Thomas
3. Wis.-Stout
4. Wis.-River Falls
5. Adrian
6. Hamline
7. Wis.-Superior

The rankings only presented one change this week, and it was River Falls moving ahead of Adrian even though the Bulldogs won the MCHA tournament and the Falcons were idle.

For a full discussion of what this means, as well as how NCAA tournament dreams are shaping up for other Western teams, please check out USCHO’s West Region NCAA analysis as I teamed up with MIAC Correspondent Josh Carey to look at the big picture.

MCHA

Simply speaking, it was a fantastic weekend of hockey at the Kern Center in Milwaukee.

Before getting to the hockey itself permit me to once again editorialize. First, MSOE put on a fantastic event and I was fortunate enough to attend both semifinal contests on Saturday.

Second, anyone who wants to degrade this league, particularly those who have never bothered to watch a MCHA game, should have been there to witness the semifinals — especially the nightcap between Finlandia and Marian.

After watching those two terrific contests. I defy anyone to attempt to contend that the league is some sort of a joke.

Save your breath as if you think that is the case, you’re wrong. Period.

To reiterate, let’s give the league credit for continuing to evolve and improve. They are doing a wonderful job. All of them.

Moving on . . . by now it is no secret Adrian captured the Harris Cup in its inaugural season, but it didn’t come easy.

The first period of Adrian’s semifinal contest was evidence enough of that as MSOE kept pace. Adrian did hold a 13-10 shot advantage in the frame, but some solid play from Raider netminder Chris Keller kept the Bulldogs off the board and the period would end scoreless.

In fact, the game could have taken on a completely different slant had MSOE been able to convert one or more of a handful of quality chances in the opening frame.

Adrian did pull away in the second and staked itself a 2-0 lead on goals from Joel Workman and Adam Krug.

A Mike Soik power-play goal would make it 2-1 at the 16:25 mark, but Adrian’s Eric Miller would put the Bulldogs back up two with under a minute to play in the period.

Adrian finally scored the game winner 1:01 into the third as Sam Kuzyk lit the lamp to put the Bulldogs up 4-1.

Soik scored again to pull the Raiders within two, and forward Matt Fastelin would tally late for MSOE, but it wasn’t enough as Adrian recorded the 5-3 victory to advance to Sunday’s final.

The second semifinal between Marian and Finlandia turned out to be as entertaining, and even, on the ice as it was on paper.

In perhaps one of the greatest games anyone has seen all season, it had everything. Both teams hit a post in the opening 45 seconds, and the entire game was rife with physical play, scoring chances, quality goaltending and special teams opportunities.

Finlandia would jump out to a 1-0 lead midway through the first on a goal Mike Parks, but Marian’s James Goodfellow would tally a power-play marker late in the frame and, not surprisingly, the period would end 1-1.

The second period would see no scoring, but it may have been the turning point in the contest.

Towards the latter stages of the period, Finlandia took three consecutive penalties. Despite including a 1:48 of 5-on-3 advantage, Marian was unable to capitalize, and would end up taking a penalty of its own after the period had ended.

Finlandia took advantage. Ross Rouleau scored just 15 seconds in to the third period on the power play to put Finlandia up, 2-1.

Travis Hanson scored 11 minutes into the period to put Finlandia up 3-1, but Nick Cinquegrani would tally just over a minute later to cut the lead to 3-2.

Though Marian would threaten in the final seven minutes, a Tiger Marcotte empty netter would seal the 4-2 win for Finlandia and send the Lions to their second consecutive Harris Cup final.

As far as Sunday’s final was concerned, there was no doubt Adrian was the favorite, but Finlandia was defending Harris Cup champions and the Bulldogs would have to earn the title.

Despite outshooting the Lions 36-18, Adrian had plenty of trouble scoring, thanks in large part to Finlandia goaltender Ryan Donovan.

“Donovan played great,” said Adrian head coach Ron Fogarty. “He stopped a breakaway in the first period and really played well for them the entire game.”

Despite the shot totals, Finlandia did have their opportunities.

“They had a great look in the first period,” said Fogarty. “Then I think in the second Rob Hodnicki made a great block of a shot for us in front of an open net.”

“They had some great chances,” he added. “It was just a great college game. I think there were more opportunities late in the game than early.”

Despite opportunities for both teams, the game would end regulation at 0-0, and bonus time would be required to crown the league champion.

For the third time this season, however, Adrian would waste little time in netting an overtime goal as Eric Miller tallied just 2:29 into the extra session.

Fogarty described the goal:

“Eric Bailen found (Adam) Krug, and he found Miller streaking through the middle. Miller ended up coming in all alone and made a quick move to his backhand and went back to his forehand and went above Donovan’s blocker.”

Considering Adrian is the highest scoring team in the nation, it’s somewhat ironic the Bulldogs only needed one goal to win the Harris Cup. Not surprisingly, Fogarty doesn’t really care.

“Any time you win 1-0 in a championship game there’s obviously elation that comes from the entire team. To have an opportunity to win a regular season and playoff championship in any year, especially our first year, is pretty incredible.”

The Adrian Bulldogs captured the MCHA Harris Cup in just their first season (photo: Sarah Miesle.)

The Adrian Bulldogs captured the MCHA Harris Cup in just their first season (photo: Sarah Miesle.)

Congratulations to Adrian for winning the Harris Cup and to the entire league for the most exciting year in MCHA history.

Now, does Adrian have a shot at the NCAA’s? I’m not even going there…

NCHA

The Peters Cup Final is finally upon the NCHA, and to no one’s surprise at all, the road once again goes through St. Norbert. In fact, 32 of the Green Knights’ last 33 Peters Cup series have been played at home.

The Green Knights will once again be hosting the contest, but for the first time ever University of Wisconsin-Stout will be the opponent.

The Blue Devils snuck out of the semifinals as they rallied to down Eau Claire 3-2 in overtime last Saturday.

Stout trailed 2-1 late in the game, but a Paul Henderson goal with under five minutes to play would force overtime.

“They are a good hockey team,” said Blue Devil head coach Terry Watkins of Eau Claire. “They went up to Superior and won and they were playing well. Matt Loen is doing a heck of a job there.”

Stout would gain the upper hand in overtime, however, and a Scott Motz goal 14:47 into the extra session would propel the Blue Devils to this weekend’s championship.

“It was kind of a see-saw game,” said Watkins. “I thought we had the better of the play in the overtime, and you know, we finally got the goal.”

Meanwhile, St. Scholastica gave St. Norbert all they could handle, but in the end the Green Knights would win the dogfight 1-0 to also advance.

“It was a very hard fought battle and we knew that it would be,” said Green Knight head coach Tim Coghlin. “Just because of the way they play, and they way they’ve played us in the past.”

He continued, “I thought both goaltenders played extremely well. I do think that if you ask (St. Scholastica head coach) Mark Wick, as he and I talked on Monday, we both thought that for the intensity and magnitude of the game it was actually a little bit sloppy.”

All sloppiness aside, the Green Knights did advance and draw Stout as a reward.

All told, St. Norbert is currently riding a 25 game undefeated streak and is 9-0 all-time against the Blue Devils at the Cornerstone.

Stout’s struggles at St. Norbert recently are best exemplified by their last two trips there, as they dropped a NCHA semifinal contest last season, and were defeated 7-1 in DePere by the Green Knights earlier this year.

It should be noted that Stout did beat St. Norbert at St. Norbert last season, but the game was played at the Resch Center in Green Bay.

“They have a great hockey team and are No. 1 in the country for a reason,” said Watkins. “But we went over there and didn’t play well at all. We got down by a couple, goaltending wasn’t very good, offensively we weren’t very good and consequently we got beat up pretty good.”

Stout is a battle-tested and experienced club, however, and Watkins hopes that experience pays off; perhaps as it did in Stout’s more recent 3-3 tie with the Green Knights.

It’s this experience in particular that has Coghlin a little worried headed into the weekend.

“They are a determined team that is a veteran group that sat home last year at this time”, Coghlin. “They obviously want something to say about it this year. That’s the difference between a young team and a veteran team. Veteran guys who have been through this once or twice understand that. This Stout team has those guys.”

Additionally, Stout’s high octane attack is cause for concern.

“They play a pretty aggressive pursuit kind of game,” Coghlin explained. “When I saw they scored seven and eight on Stevens Point I thought that’s exactly the type of game Stout wanted. I think if it goes their way over here this weekend it will be a five to six goal game, and if it goes our way it could be a two to three goal game.”

From the Stout angle, Watkins singled out the necessity to get shots on net.

“We have to get shots on Jones,” he said. “And when we do we have to finish. It should be a fun night.”

Speaking of Kyle Jones, goaltending will no doubt play a major role in Saturday’s contest as Stout will counter with Mike Stone, a reigning first team All-American.

Interestingly, both coaches singled out two facets to this game that they thought would make the difference: goaltending and special teams.

With the nets in good hands, Stout’s power play on fire as of late, and St. Norbert’s plays with an extra attacker also formidable, the coaches just might be onto something.

Either way, it should be a packed house Saturday night as word is Stout is bringing a couple busloads of students. If they are able to come close to the performance of the Bethel students when they ventured into the Cornerstone last season, this is a game no one is going to want to miss.

It’s simply playoff hockey at it’s best.

Could Wayne State be experiencing a change of heart?

By
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Wayne State won’t be playing hockey next season but that doesn’t mean that the program is dead and buried forever. In an article in Friday’s Detroit Free Press, George Sipple writes that the school is in talks with the Detroit Red Wings to build a facility on the Wayne State campus in downtown Detroit that the Wings would use as a practice facility and the University could use for a Division I varsity team.

The article states that WSU athletic director Rob Fournier “hopes to convince (Red Wings owners Mike and Marian Illich) that a partnership is in the best interest of the Warriors and the Wings.”

Obviously, this is not something that will happen overnight and the fact of the matter is that the team will not play next year and the remaining members of College Hockey America remain endangered to not have a conference next year in which to play.

But CCHA commissioner Tom Anastos told the Free Press that building a rink with the Wings “would make a strong statement” and is a “huge step in demonstrating commitment.”

This all could be just another PR buzz campaign that’s circulating around to generate positive news, particularly in light of the CHA’s seemingly impending demise. But at the point, all good news is exactly that, good news, for college hockey.

NCAA West Analysis

By Matthew Webb and Josh Carey
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It’s that time of the year where once again nearly all discussion has turned to the upcoming NCAA Tournament. Expectedly so, many in the West Region are focused on how many Western teams will make this season’s tournament field.

The first stop in attempting to decipher the madness is to take a look at the most recent, and final public, NCAA West Region Poll. It is:

1. St. Norbert
2. St. Thomas
3. UW-Stout
4. UW-River Falls
5. Adrian
6. Hamline
7. Wis.-Superior

The West has not landed four teams in the field since the 1997-98 season, despite the tournament expanding from eight teams that year, to nine, and now to its present configuration of 10. The magic 6-4 East-West split it something the region heavily desires, though for all intents and purposes it is once again looking like a pipe dream this year.

In fact, it’s looking questionable as to whether the West will even land a third team in this year’s field. Before getting into why, however, let’s take a look at what we know.

What We Know

As a quick refresher, the tournament field is comprised of six automatic Pool A bids which go to the conference tournament champions of the MIAC, NCHA, ECACE, NESCAC, SUNYAC and ECACNE.

There is one Pool B bid, which goes the top-ranked team from the ECACW or MCHA, as the bid is reserved for conferences who do not own a Pool A bid.

The final three bids are Pool C bids, which every team in the country who did not win a Pool A bid is eligible for.

With that in mind:

• St. Norbert is in and will be the top seed in the region. A win over Stout on Saturday will land them the NCHA Pool A bid. A loss and they are a lock for one of the three Pool C bids.
• St. Thomas is in. The Tommies have won the MIAC Pool A bid and will be the second seeded Western team in the field.
• Stout, the next highest ranked Western team, will earn the NCHA Pool A bid with a win at St. Norbert on Saturday. Otherwise, they will need a Pool C bid to make the field.
• River Falls needs a Pool C to make the field.
• Adrian needs a Pool C to make the field.
• No one else has even a remote chance.

Taken directly from the USCHO.com D-III PairWise Comparison page, we know that:

“The NCAA Division III men’s ice hockey championship manual states that at-large teams shall be selected by winning percentage, opponents winning percentage, opponents opponents’ winning percentage, head-to-head record, record against common opponents, and record against ranked teams, but not necessarily in that order.

“The NCAA championship manual does not specify any weighting for each of the criteria. Therefore, the selection committee may exercise the authority to weigh each of the criteria arbitrarily during any given season’s selection process. The committee has chosen not to reveal publicly how it weights the criteria.”

It should also be noted that only in-region games against Division III opponents are taken into consideration by the preceding criteria.

And finally, we know that due to the NCAA’s refusal to make the process transparent, as it is in Division I, analysis can prove a dubious and painstaking task. Confusion over the way the committee may interpret the new two-tiered strength-of-schedule criteria increases the difficulty of analysis, but more than one NCAA representative last week iterated that opponents opponents’ winning percentage is supposed to be used to validate opponents winning percentage. Take it for what it’s worth, as we must also, but suffice to say the unnecessary smoke and mirrors won’t stop us from trying to sort this all out.

Stout

If the Blue Devils win the NCHA championship they will be in the field along with St. Norbert and St. Thomas.

That much is easy, but the question as to what happens if Stout loses Saturday is a much more difficult one to tackle. A loss would drop them into the Pool C mix, and as the Blue Devils are currently the highest ranked Western team in that fold, it’s worth taking a look at them first.

The first thing to note is that based on the current East Region rankings, a loss by Middlebury or Norwich would doom the Blue Devils’ hopes. In order to figure it out why, let’s look at how Stout matches up with those two.

Middlebury vs UW-Stout

WIN 0.6667 0 0.6964 1
OWP 0.5383 1 0.4980 0
OOP 0.5262 1 0.5145 0
H2H 0- 0- 0 0- 0- 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
RNK 5- 4- 0 1 1- 6- 3 0
============================================
PTS 3 1

Norwich vs UW-Stout

WIN 0.7500 1 0.6964 0
OWP 0.5614 1 0.4980 0
OOP 0.5197 1 0.5145 0
H2H 0- 0- 0 0- 0- 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
RNK 8- 3- 0 1 1- 6- 3 0
============================================
PTS 4 0

It’s nearly inconceivable Stout would be selected over either, so if one were to lose and pick up one of the three Pool C bids, let’s look at the next two teams Stout would be compared to as of now.

Manhattanville vs UW-Stout

WIN 0.7115 1 0.6964 0
OWP 0.5457 1 0.4980 0
OOP 0.5368 1 0.5145 0
H2H 0- 0- 0 0- 0- 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
RNK 7- 5- 3 1 1- 6- 3 0
============================================
PTS 4 0

Hobart vs UW-Stout

WIN 0.7037 1 0.6964 0
OWP 0.5530 1 0.4980 0
OOP 0.5298 1 0.5145 0
H2H 0- 0- 0 0- 0- 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
RNK 6- 7- 2 1 1- 6- 3 0
============================================
PTS 4 0

In that case, it is lights out for the Blue Devils and it will be an 8-2 split.

Now, what happens if Norwich and Middlebury both win? Stout clearly loses comparisons with Hobart and Manhattanville, but who would be compared with the Blue Devils for the final Pool C spot? As of now, none other than defending champion Oswego.

Oswego vs UW-Stout

WIN 0.7308 1 0.6964 0
OWP 0.5443 1 0.4980 0
OOP 0.5057 0 0.5145 1
H2H 0- 0- 0 0- 0- 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
RNK 3- 6- 2 1 1- 6- 3 0
============================================
PTS 3 1

Once again it is not looking good. There is possibly a way the West committee could help out the Blue Devils if it comes down to this comparison, but we’ll get to that a little later. As it stands now, however, it looks like Stout needs to win at St. Norbert on Saturday to make the field.

River Falls

Seemingly left for dead following an opening round playoff loss to St. Scholastica, some may be surprised to see them here.

We aren’t.

If Stout does lose at St. Norbert Saturday is there a chance the Falcons could slide into the third spot in the region and become the first Western team considered for Pool C?

We think there is, but we’ll let the numbers do the talking. River Falls is in the exact same boat as Stout in terms of comparisons against Middlebury, Norwich, Manhattanville and Hobart.

Middlebury vs UW-River Falls

WIN 0.6667 0 0.6667 0
OWP 0.5383 1 0.4989 0
OOP 0.5262 1 0.5154 0
H2H 0- 0- 0 0- 0- 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
RNK 5- 4- 0 1 4- 4- 1 0
============================================
PTS 3 0

Norwich vs UW-River Falls

WIN 0.7500 1 0.6667 0
OWP 0.5614 1 0.4989 0
OOP 0.5197 1 0.5154 0
H2H 0- 0- 0 0- 0- 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
RNK 8- 3- 0 1 4- 4- 1 0
============================================
PTS 4 0

Manhattanville vs UW-River Falls

WIN 0.7115 1 0.6667 0
OWP 0.5457 1 0.4989 0
OOP 0.5368 1 0.5154 0
H2H 0- 0- 0 0- 0- 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
RNK 7- 5- 3 1 4- 4- 1 0
============================================
PTS 4 0

Hobart vs UW-River Falls

WIN 0.7037 1 0.6667 0
OWP 0.5530 1 0.4989 0
OOP 0.5298 1 0.5154 0
H2H 0- 0- 0 0- 0- 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
RNK 6- 7- 2 0 4- 4- 1 1
============================================
PTS 3 1

This is where the similarity with Stout ends, however. What if it came down to a River Falls comparison with Oswego?

Oswego vs UW-River Falls

WIN 0.7308 1 0.6667 0
OWP 0.5443 1 0.4989 0
OOP 0.5057 0 0.5154 1
H2H 0- 0- 0 0- 0- 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
RNK 3- 6- 2 0 4- 4- 1 1
============================================
PTS 2 2

For this to come into play, River Falls would need Stout to lose, Middlebury and Norwich to win, and then would have to leapfrog Stout in the West region poll. It sounded outrageous to us at first, too. Then we realized the Falcons already jumped up one spot without playing. What’s another?

Were it to occur, it looks like the Falcons would at least stand a fighting chance, particularly due to their record against ranked opponents. It doesn’t blow Oswego’s out of the water, but as the committee seemed to weigh that criterion heavily last season it looks like the Falcons may still be in the picture, however barely.

Adrian

One of the most interesting storylines of the season has been the rise of first year program Adrian in the MCHA. The case of the Bulldogs illustrates exceedingly well how difficult this process can be to get a grasp on.

Since that league doesn’t have an automatic qualifier, the Bulldogs are forced to compete with teams from the ECAC West to secure a bid at Pool B, despite winning their conference tournament. A quick glance at the USCHO PairWise Comparisons (PWC), which approximates the numbers the committee will be looking at Sunday, gives a clear edge to Elmira for that bid.

Adrian vs Elmira

WIN 0.9545 1 0.8269 0
OWP 0.4215 0 0.5516 1
OOP 0.4970 0 0.5322 1
H2H 0- 0- 0 0- 0- 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
RNK 0- 0- 0 0 10- 2- 4 1
============================================
PTS 1 3

This sends Adrian searching for a Pool C bid. However, we see a series of very curious developments when looking at how the Western committee has ranked Adrian thus far.

Every year there is some controversy when it comes time to select the tournament field. In 2005, Trinity’s lack of a home rink sent them to a lower-seeded Geneseo team. In 2006 New England College lost their conference title game and was sent home in favor of a third team from the ECAC West.

In 2007, UMass-Dartmouth (UMD) jumped from fourth to first in the East Region rankings and then didn’t submit a bid to host a game, sending them to play at a lower-ranked Middlebury team. And that’s just recently.

Why rehash these old grievances? It’s to underscore the point that when you have a subjective process, there are bound to be decisions that go against the conventional wisdom of observers of that system. The merits of why Adrian should or shouldn’t be included in the tournament can be discussed ad infinitum. Take this typical exchange:

Adrian fan: They have 26 wins. 20 in a row. Only 3 losses.
Adrian nonfan: But they’re only 3-2 outside of the MCHA, which is not a very strong conference.
Adrian fan: You can’t fault them for the schedule they were forced to play. Besides all those losses came in the beginning of the season and they’re a first year program with a ton of freshmen.
Adrian nonfan: Well you have to look at the whole of the numbers. And there’s a lot of teams with just slightly more losses and a much more difficult schedule.
Adrian fan: Yes, but they only have three losses.

You can see how this could go on forever.

So the purpose of this section of the article is to explain what is happening to Adrian, why it is happening, why it means that the process needs to be fixed, and why the Western committee is getting skunked by the Eastern committee and probably has been for quite some time.

Let’s start by going back in time to February 19. The first public NCAA rankings were released and the west looked like this:

1. St. Norbert
2. St. Thomas
3. UW-River Falls
4. Adrian
5. UW-Stout
6. UW-Stevens Point
7. Bethel

A straight comparison of the statistics, however, shows Adrian trailing nearly every team in most comparisons except winning percentage. Remember Adrian’s schedule: 20 MCHA games, one exhibition, five games against Eastern opponents. For the sake of these Western rankings, those five games out east and one exhibition don’t count at all.

In interconference play against the MIAC and NCHA this season, the MCHA had an overall record of 5-25-4 (.205 winning percentage). This results in several things happening.

First, Adrian’s SOS is among the weakest in the nation. Because the league average in any closed set of games (such as the MCHA conference schedule) has to be .500, if MCHA teams only played MCHA teams, Adrian’s opponent’s winning percentage (the primary determination of strength of schedule by the NCAA) would be slightly below .500 (because Adrian’s high win total would decrease the number from the .500 average, as they are not their own opponent).

Then add in the fact that in the games Adrian’s opponents did play outside the conference in the region they had a .205 winning percentage, and Adrian’s opponent’s winning percentage decreases dramatically.

Because so many of Adrian’s opponents’ opponents are also MCHA teams, the second component of strength of schedule is also weak for the Bulldogs. The conclusion being that the high win total came against a weak schedule.

Is it fair to punish Adrian for how poorly the rest of their league did in non-conference games? That’s another discussion. The fact of the matter is, the NCAA does punish them for that because they played no in-region non-conference games themselves.

Secondly, Adrian can gain very little ground in Common Opponents. Only five NCHA and MIAC teams have a loss to an MCHA team (a team they would have in common with Adrian). Only two teams have a tie. As a result, most of the teams Adrian compares with for rankings in common opponents have the same number of losses as do the Bulldogs. That means that Adrian can’t really gain any ground on their opponents through the common opponent’s statistic.

And then there is the fact that Adrian has not played a ranked team. Because Adrian didn’t play a non-conference game against a Western opponent, the only way they would have any games against ranked teams is if an MCHA team was ranked. More on that later.

Finally, Adrian has no head-to-head comparisons with ranked teams. See above.

So we’ve established that Adrian leads teams in winning percentage but trails heavily in strength of schedule. They can not gain ground on common opponents, and have no record either head-to-head or against ranked teams. This is actually a pretty damning assessment of Adrian’s statistical situation. So, given all these detractors, what explains the Bulldogs’ fourth place ranking that initial week?

A snapshot of those teams showed that all teams ranked above Adrian had a winning percentage against ranked teams of .500 or better. The teams ranked below Adrian had a winning percentage below .500 against ranked teams. Was the committee giving Adrian some credit for their very high winning percentage, saying their 0-0 record against ranked teams counted as .500, and the rest was a wash because nobody had a comparison on them? Well, let’s see what happened the next week:

NCAA Western Regional Rankings 2/26/08

1. St. Norbert
2. St. Thomas
3. UW-Stout
4. Adrian
5. UW-River Falls
6. Hamline
7. Bethel

What happened to River Falls is clear. They dropped two games in the NCHA playoffs and fell behind Adrian. But what changed that allowed Stout to jump from fifth to third? Both Stout and Adrian won two games on the weekend. Stout defeated Stevens Point twice, but Stevens Point wasn’t a ranked team at that point.

Adrian also won two games — against Concordia (WI) in the MCHA playoffs. Obviously Stout’s SOS increased while Adrian’s decreased, possibly significantly (two games against Concordia added a combined 4-50, or .074 to Adrian’s strength of schedule rank).

But if everything else was equal that means that we can determine that the difference in ranking between Adrian and Stout in the first week was so incredibly small that the difference in the SOS added by Stevens Point to Stout’s strength of schedule (28-18-8) compared to the 4-50-0* added to Adrian’s strength of schedule was enough to tip the comparison in their favor.

Remember: Adrian has no common opponents, head-to-head, or record against ranked teams — and Stout did not play a team that was ranked. The only things that changed were the teams’ winning percentages (both teams won two games) and their strengths of schedules.

*An aside: Conferences will have to adapt to this new strength of schedule system if it remains in place for future seasons. The Bulldogs were hurt in the criteria by playing an eighth seeded team that, by their record, really didn’t belong in postseason play. Conferences should be looking to get down to six or fewer playoff teams. Six team tournaments still benefit top seeds by giving them a pass through the first round, but when they do play it is against a higher caliber of opponent — specifically one with a record that helps a team’s schedule strength.

Adrian has been constrained the entire year by their conference — first by the 20 game league schedule, then by the playoff system. With the MCHA getting the automatic qualifier next season, this may be a moot point — or not, as Adrian will still have to be considered for seeding purposes. The MCHA should carefully examine its league schedule and playoff system this off-season to prevent this type of scenario happening to their team again.

Back to the rankings. We’re left with one of two theories as to why Stout leapfrogged Adrian. One is that the difference in the first week really was that close. But that would seem to indicate there is some formula, or method of thinking, where one level of winning percentage exceeds another one based on a certain level of schedule strength. And that Adrian and Stout were almost exactly at that level.

The other is that the Western committee was unable to bring themselves to put Adrian as the highest possible contender for Pool C, and wanted to make sure a NCHA team stood between the Bulldogs and an NCAA birth.

Occam’s Razor can be simplified to state “All other things being equal, the simplest solution is the best.” Which is more likely: that a very subjective secretive process actually has a very specific mathematical formula and these two teams were right on the cusp of it or that the Western committee wanted a NCHA team to have first crack at an at-large bid?

Maybe this one move can be explained away as coincidence. Both teams were headed to their semifinals and the NCHA is a stronger conference than the MCHA (the head-to-head numbers bear that out). But then why wasn’t Stout ranked ahead of Adrian to begin with? And what changed during that week to change what had Adrian ranked ahead. As you’ll see below, we can explain most of everything else that happened in the NCAA rankings, but Stout jumping Adrian this week is the one X-factor we seem to have no explanation for.

NCAA Western Regional Rankings 3/4/08

1. St. Norbert
2. St. Thomas
3. UW-Stout
4. UW-River Falls
5. Adrian
6. Hamline
7. Wis.-Superior

This week, Adrian dropped behind an idle River Falls team — after winning its league championship. And unlike the previous week, they played quality opponents in MSOE (15-13) and Finlandia (a winning percentage above .600). So what changed? Superior became a ranked team, giving River Falls an additional 2-0 in record against ranked teams. That moved them above .500 and what seems to be the magic number to get above Adrian.

The question becomes: is there precedent to consider a 0-0 record against ranked teams as a .500 record? It seems like, in a subjective process, that statistic would just reinforce the notion that Adrian is playing a weaker schedule than everybody else. As a result, even if they “won” the comparison against a team with a record against ranked teams below .500, it would reinforce the notion of their ‘inflated’ record, and end up benefiting the team compared against Adrian.

When it comes to Pool C, that could prove the difference between getting an extra Western team into the tournament or not. In that regard, it seems like what the Western committee has done with regard to Adrian makes the least amount of sense. 0-0 is not .500. So, one of two things would make more sense.

Place Adrian at the top of the regional rankings, perhaps even above St. Norbert. The Eastern committee did this last season when they mysteriously moved UMass-Dartmouth (UMD) from fourth to first on a week where teams above them won games. The Corsairs had the same schedule strength concerns the Bulldogs do, playing in the ECAC Northeast.

The Eastern committee slid UMD up the rankings — protecting them in case they faltered — knowing how well they matched up against Western teams. If the West had done this with Adrian — and given them a little help (see below) — they could have claimed the lack of ranked teams didn’t matter because they had won so many games, and hoped that a close comparison with Manhattanville got them into the tournament.

Or, conversely, don’t rank Adrian at all. If their schedule strength really is that weak (and the committee seems to feel it’s worth ranking them below three different NCHA teams), then Adrian wouldn’t get an at-large bid anyway and shouldn’t be considered. The fact they have no games outside of the MCHA in the West means that no other team will benefit or drop from having them ranked, so why not include a team that does have games against ranked opponents and actually helps someone else out?

It appears as if the committee is hesitant to remove the Bulldogs from the equation completely. This could be due to the tradition of having the MCHA champion at least ranked (MSOE was frequently in the bottom half of the Western rankings), with one or two MIAC teams and the rest of the rankings filled out from the NCHA.

But if the committee doesn’t feel the Bulldogs are one of the elite teams in the region because of their record, then the numbers don’t really play out having them in the rankings at all. It would appear the committee is merely paying lip service to the Bulldogs with no intention of giving them a chance to compare for Pool C, even though they may have a better chance of getting in than some of the teams that have mysteriously moved ahead of them.

The one caveat to this discussion is that we are going by the final published rankings. The committee will make one final, non-public ranking Sunday afternoon, which will not be released. Last year, the Western committee moved UW-Superior, the host school for the final four, ahead of UW-Stout, which had better criteria, on the final rankings.

As a result, Stout was never seriously considered for a Pool C spot, as the national committee assumed the Western committee knew what they were doing and had an actual reason for ranking Superior above Stout. That reason appeared to be that “If Elmira got in when they were hosting, Superior would get in when they were hosting.”

For the second straight year, the Eastern committee outmaneuvered the Western committee, keeping the traditional 7-3 split.

And they look to be doing it again. A glance at the final published East Region NCAA Poll show some curious developments. Oswego, a team that matches up more poorly against Western teams than other schools has dropped down the rankings. Utica is the final ranked team, which bolsters the resumes of teams like Elmira and Manhattanville, who must defeat Adrian in a straight up comparison for Pool B.

Last year a high record against ranked teams, mostly those in positions 10-15 in the Eastern rankings, got Norwich into the tournament over what many believed to be a more deserving Neumann squad. It seems as if the Eastern committee is three steps ahead of the Western committee, and the West needs to wise up and pick a way to try and maximize the teams they get into the tournament. One region already is.

What to do?

Well, it depends. It’s clear that if Stout loses to St. Norbert, the West Region committee is going to be forced to pick one pony and ride it. The big question is: who should it be?

It’s pretty clear it will have to be Stout, River Falls or Adrian.

What if it is Stout?

The committee must remove Superior from the rankings as the Blue Devils are 0-2 against the Yellowjackets this season. So what if they elected to do that and instead moved Stevens Point back into the poll? Leaving Superior in would be inexplicable as Stout is 3-0-1 against the Pointers this season and all of a sudden the Oswego comparison would look like:

Oswego vs UW-Stout

WIN 0.7308 1 0.6964 0
OWP 0.5443 1 0.4980 0
OOP 0.5057 0 0.5145 1
H2H 0- 0- 0 0- 0- 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
RNK 3- 6- 2 0 4- 4- 3 1
============================================
PTS 2 2

Rather interesting. Call the SOS comparisons a wash and which wins out: Oswego’s slight advantage in winning percentage or Stout’s minimal advantage in record against ranked opponents? That argument could last all night.

What if it’s River Falls?

Unfortunately there isn’t anything that works out as well for River Falls. They are 1-0-1 against Superior and 1-0 against Hamline. They have beaten Bethel on the year but moving the Royals back in would serve no purpose as it is Superior or Hamline who would drop out and nothing would really change. River Falls is locked into its numbers for the most part.

Oswego vs UW-River Falls

WIN 0.7308 1 0.6667 0
OWP 0.5443 1 0.4989 0
OOP 0.5057 0 0.5154 1
H2H 0- 0- 0 0- 0- 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
RNK 3- 6- 2 0 4- 4- 1 1
============================================
PTS 2 2

Compare that with the Stout example outlined above and it’s anyone’s guess as to who matches up better with Oswego. In either case we find it hard to believe the West committee would go down without an extensive, and perhaps prolonged, fight.

What if it’s Adrian?

Ah yes, the most interesting possibility of all if for nothing more than it allows us to have the most fun with the numbers.

As has been mentioned in past columns, as well as above, the only selection criterion the Bulldogs are able to beat anyone against is winning percentage. Simply speaking, this puts the Bulldogs at a 2-1 or 3-1 disadvantage against everyone else in the tournament mix. Not having played any ranked teams is a problem. So let’s fix that.

Congratulations Finlandia, you are now the seventh ranked team in the West Region.

Were this to occur, what happens to Adrian’s comparisons considering the Bulldogs were 3-0 against the Lions this season?

Adrian vs Hobart

WIN 0.9545 1 0.7037 0
OWP 0.4215 0 0.5530 1
OOP 0.4970 0 0.5298 1
H2H 0- 0- 0 0- 0- 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
RNK 3- 0- 0 1 6- 7- 2 0
============================================
PTS 2 2

Adrian vs Middlebury

WIN 0.9545 1 0.6667 0
OWP 0.4215 0 0.5383 1
OOP 0.4970 0 0.5262 1
H2H 0- 0- 0 0- 0- 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
RNK 3- 0- 0 1 5- 4- 0 0
============================================
PTS 2 2

Adrian vs Norwich

WIN 0.9545 1 0.7500 0
OWP 0.4215 0 0.5614 1
OOP 0.4970 0 0.5197 1
H2H 0- 0- 0 0- 0- 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
RNK 3- 0- 0 1 8- 3- 0 0
============================================
PTS 2 2

Adrian vs Oswego

WIN 0.9545 1 0.7308 0
OWP 0.4215 0 0.5443 1
OOP 0.4970 0 0.5057 1
H2H 0- 0- 0 0- 0- 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
RNK 3- 0- 0 1 3- 6- 2 0
============================================
PTS 2 2

Well that certainly is interesting. By now I’m sure someone has noticed we didn’t include Manhattanville. For good reason, as Adrian’s comparison with the Valiants needed to be singled out, so here it is:

Adrian vs Manhattanville

WIN 0.9545 1 0.7115 0
OWP 0.4215 0 0.5457 1
OOP 0.4970 0 0.5368 1
H2H 0- 0- 0 0- 0- 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
RNK 3- 0- 0 1 7- 5- 3 0
============================================
PTS 2 2

The first thing to note is that merely by ranking Finlandia all of a sudden the Bulldogs beat every Eastern team in winning percentage and record against ranked teams. The only thing the Easterners can lay claim to is a stronger schedule. If the West went to bat for Adrian would that really outweigh Adrian’s advantage in the other two? Who knows.

Now, back to Manhattanville. It looks just like Adrian’s comparison with everyone else, but as Adrian played Neumann and Potsdam this season, that means they have common opponents with Manhattanville. The secondary criteria allow these to be considered in this case, so what if we factored those in?

Adrian vs Manhattanville

WIN 0.9545 1 0.7115 0
OWP 0.4215 0 0.5457 1
OOP 0.4970 0 0.5368 1
H2H 0- 0- 0 0- 0- 0
COP 2- 2- 0 1 1- 3- 0 0
RNK 3- 0- 0 1 7- 5- 3 0
============================================
PTS 3 2

Now not only does Adrian beat an Eastern team that appears locked into a Pool C bid in winning percentage and record against ranked teams, but they also hold an advantage in common opponents.

Quite a ruckus it would cause, but in a pure numbers-sense, is it possible Adrian is the West Region’s best bet to land a Pool C bid? Well, when everything is weighed evenly it sure looks like they may be.

Now whether it’s Stout, River Falls or Adrian that ends up being the West’s lone gunman come conference call time, any of these actions should be ones the committee is willing to take.

Whether it was moving UMass-Dartmouth mysteriously to number one last season, perhaps moving Oswego below two teams this week that fare much better against the West, or perhaps including Trinity and Utica in this week’s poll to bolster the résumés of the East’s major players, the East committee has routinely demonstrated a clear understanding of the numbers. In turn, they have used them to the advantage of the entire region.

Especially in light of the Superior-Stout ranking debacle outlined above last season, it’s time the West starts doing the same.

Conclusions

We’ve even managed to change our own minds, repeatedly, and we’ve even convinced ourselves a 6-4 split is a mathematical possibility.

If Stout beats St. Norbert, the West committee must run with Adrian. River Falls gets crushed by Manhattanville and Hobart. The Bulldogs are the only hope. If this scenario transpires and Adrian gets in, it really could be 6-4.

It would only make it 7-3 in this case, but the same applies if St. Norbert wins but Norwich or Middlebury lose. It would be a completely futile act to put Stout or River Falls as the top Western Pool C contender as neither gets a whiff of Middlebury, Norwich, Manhattanville or Hobart.

Unfortunately, we believe the West committee has no intention of doing anything to help Adrian, even if it’s the only logical option.

Therefore, parsed down as best we can:

It will be a 7-3 split if Stout wins. (St. Norbert, Stout, St. Thomas)

It’s too close to call if Stout loses and Middlebury and Norwich both win. It’s 7-3 or 8-2 depending on who the West ponies up against potentially Oswego. The 8-2 scenario would then be most likely, but the West could still squeak three teams in with shrewd positioning of ranked teams — which we doubt they are capable of doing.

Anything else and it is 8-2.

Will the West committee once again reap what they have sewn? We’ll find out Sunday.

Another Bracketology

By
-

First, if you haven’t done so already, read Matt Webb and Josh Carey’s excellent analysis of the West’s NCAA predicament. It points out the problems and highlights some solutions for the West getting three teams in the tournament in the event St. Norbert beats UW-Stout. I’ll cover the high points here, in an updated version of “A Bracketology”. You can read last week’s version here.

Once again, we’ll focus on schools still in the running and what their respective chances are:

Already In: Plattsburgh and St. Thomas have won their conference tournaments and the respective automatic bids.

A lock: St. Norbert, Elmira, Norwich. Even if these teams lose in their conference tournaments, they’re in. Elmira has locked up the Pool B bid and St. Norbert and Norwich will capture pool C bids if they don’t get their league’s AQs.

Looking Good: Manhattanville, Middlebury, Hobart. All match up very well with the remaining East teams and West teams. They should all get in if St. Norbert and Norwich win this weekend. Middlebury can earn its way in if it wins the NESCAC, paving the way for another team to get a Pool C slot.

On the bubble: UW-Stout, Oswego. The Blue Devils can of course win their way in. If not, both Stout and Oswego need Middlebury to win the NESCAC, and then it will come down to which committee makes the better case. See Webb and Carey’s analysis for details.

Remote Chance:UW-River Falls, Adrain – Both need some fudging or rethinking of the Western Rankings – for example, the addition of Finlandia and UW-Stevens Point. Once again, Webb and Carey have the details.

Must Win their AQ: New England, Salem State, Mass-Boston, Mass-Dartmouth, Nichols, Colby, Amherst, Trinity.

So how do I think it will shake out? I’m predicting the following:

ECAC East: Norwich

NESCAC: Middlebury

ECAC Northeast: UMass-Dartmouth

NCHA: St. Norbert

ECAC West: Elmira (no AQ)

Pool B: Elmira

Pool C: Manhattanville, Hobart, Oswego/Stout (too close to call).

If it’s Oswego:

First Round:

Mass-Dartmouth at Manhattanville

Oswego at Hobart (but I can see this changing to Hobart at Oswego – bigger rink, bigger $$$)

Quarterfinals:

Mass-Dartmouth/Manhattanville at Elmira

Oswego/Hobart at Plattsburgh

Middlebury at Norwich

St. Thomas at St. Norbert

If it’s Stout:

First Round:

Mass-Dartmouth at Hobart

UW-Stout at St. Thomas

Quarterfinals:

Mass-Dartmouth/Hobart at Elmira

Manhattanville at Plattsburgh

Middlebury at Norwich

St. Thomas/UW-Stout at St. Norbert

I’ll be watching these events unfold from afar while broadcasting Holy Cross at RIT in the AHA quarterfinals best of three series. Check back for an update sometime this weekend.

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